Poland Could Deliver MiG-29 Fighter Jets To Ukraine "In Four To Six Weeks"

Russia's attack on a US drone over the Black Sea and a thwarted Russian plane incursion over the Baltic may hasten approval of the transfer which would also help support an expected Ukrainian counteroffensive. JL 

Thomas Newdick reports in The Drive:

Poland’s latest offer of MiG-29 Fulcrum fighter jets for Ukraine could see the much-needed aircraft delivered in the next four to six weeks, Polish Prime Minister Mateusz Morawiecki confirmed. While actually signing the jets over to Kyiv may be easier said than done, it’s notable that the issue has now progressed from the respective defense ministries to the head of the Polish government. Poland’s proposal would involve a ‘coalition’ of countries — Bulgaria, Poland, and Slovakia — sending MiG-29s to Ukraine.

Poland’s latest offer of MiG-29 Fulcrum fighter jets for Ukraine could see the much-needed aircraft delivered in the next four to six weeks, Polish Prime Minister Mateusz Morawiecki confirmed today. While actually signing the jets over to Kyiv may be easier said than done, judging by past experiences, it’s notable that the issue has now progressed from the respective defense ministries to the head of the Polish government.

Morawiecki’s pledge, which he made at a news conference today, follows a statement from Slovakian Minister of Defense Jaroslav Nad last Thursday, in which he confirmed that his Polish counterpart had told him at a European Union meeting the previous day that Warsaw would agree to a joint process to transfer MiG-29s to Ukraine. As well as Poland and Slovakia, Bulgaria also possesses Fulcrum stocks within NATO, although the Slovakian aircraft were stood down from duty last year.

The announcement today on a potential timeline for getting MiGs to Ukraine is significant in that it suggests that an agreement over a joint transfer program could well be taking shape. Poland’s proposal would involve a ‘coalition’ of countries — presumably drawn from at least some of Bulgaria, Poland, and Slovakia — sending MiG-29s to Ukraine.

If this coalition takes shape, Poland would “certainly not” deliver more than 14 of the jets, around 28 of which serve with the Polish Air Force today. That was confirmed last week by Pawel Szrot, head of the president’s office in Warsaw. Losing less than half of the Polish MiG-29s would have a much-reduced effect on overall capabilities than losing the entire fleet and the imminent arrival of South Korea-made FA-50 Fighting Eagle light combat aircraft would further temper the cutback, although they are not a direct replacement.

This is not the first time the idea of delivering Polish MiG-29s to Ukraine has been proposed. Spurred by long-running demands from the Ukrainian government and the Ukrainian Air Force for new fighter equipment, Poland last year announced a plan to transfer its entire fleet of these Fulcrums to the U.S. government, which could then pass them on to Ukraine. At the same time, Poland requested the U.S. government provide sufficient numbers of other fighter jets to make up for the loss of the MiGs.

That earlier plan was derailed by the U.S. Department of Defense, Pentagon Press Secretary John Kirby declaring that “the prospect of fighter jets ‘at the disposal of the Government of the United States of America’ departing from a U.S./NATO base in Germany to fly into airspace that is contested with Russia over Ukraine raises serious concerns for the entire NATO alliance,” and that “it is simply not clear to us that there is a substantive rationale for it.”

The new Polish proposal, which involved a coalition of countries, may stand a better chance of success. If so, it would follow the broad pattern established by the transfer to Ukraine of modern Western main battle tanks and Patriot air defense systems, among other advanced systems. Like fighter jets, those items had previously been considered too provocative to include in arms transfers for Ukraine, although the momentum of multiple countries pledging to supply them in a coordinated fashion ultimately yielded tangible results for Ukraine.

The question of how the fighter jets would actually get to Ukraine remains, but it seems likely they would have to be trucked in, or brought by rail, either of which would require their partial disassembly, before being reassembled once in Ukraine.

NATO’s former Warsaw Pact members in Eastern Europe have been prominent in supporting Ukraine, so it’s perhaps no surprise that there is movement here now regarding supplying fighter jets. And while the MiG-29 might not be a modern Western fighter of the kind that Ukraine would most like to receive, the fact that the Fulcrum is already used by the Ukrainian Air Force would make its integration far easier and much more immediate.