A Blog by Jonathan Low

 

Jun 24, 2022

Why Putin Is Purging Dvornikov, Other Top Russian Generals

General Alexander Dvornikov, he "Butcher of Damascus," who commanded Russian forces in Ukraine, is being replaced for reports of "excessive drinking" (which by Russian army standards must be really something to see...). The chief of airborne forces is also being replaced for incurring "excessive casualties" among the elite, which appears to mean losing 40% of troop strength. 

That Putin is purging these very senior officers - Colonel-General being about as high as one can get in the Russian army - just as Severodonetsk is finally "about" to fall suggests that he recognizes Ukraine lured them into a trap there which further depleted Russian troop strength and enabled Ukrainian advances in Kherson, Kharkiv and other areas of greater strategic significance. That the focus on Severodonetsk was probably done at Putin's behest does not matter in a dictatorship, where everyone but the boss is a fall guy in waiting. JL  

Rebecca Cohen and Abby Shull report in Business Insider:

The Kremlin in the process of a major shakeup of their current command structure in Ukraine, blamed for the failure to fully capture Ukraine. High-level Russian military leaders being purged include the overall commander of the Russian invasion of Ukraine, Army General Alexander Dvornikov. Putin planned to replace Dvornikov after hearng reports of his "excessive drinking" and a lack of trust in him by Russian forces. Current Chief of Staff of the Central Military District, Colonel-General Teplinsky, will replace the Commander of the Russian Airborne Forces, Colonel-General Serdyukov.

The Kremlin recently replaced the commander of the Russian Airborne forces and could be in the process of a major shakeup of their current command structure in Ukraine, according to a new report from the Institute for the Study of War

The analysis found that many top officials could be blamed for the failure to fully capture Ukraine, prompting the Kremlin to replace those officers with new faces. 

Current Chief of Staff of the Central Military District, Colonel-General Mikhail Teplinsky, will replace the current Commander of the Russian Airborne Forces, Colonel-General Andrey Serdyukov, according to the report.

Ukrainian sources reported that Serdyukov was previously fired from his post by the Kremlin for "poor performance" and "high casualties," according to ISW's report. 

"Such drastic rotations within the Russian military, if true, are not actions taken by a force on the verge of a major success and indicate ongoing dysfunction in the Kremlin's conduct of the war," the report states.

The ISW also listed other rumors of high-level Russian military leaders being purged from the ranks, including the overall commander of the Russian invasion of Ukraine, Army General Alexander Dvornikov, though the allegations couldn't be independently confirmed.

A report from Christo Grozev, the lead Russia journalist for investigative outlet Bellingcat, claimed that Russian President Vladimir Putin planned to replace Dvornikov after hearng reports of his "excessive drinking" and a lack of trust in him by Russian forces. 

Russia has failed to capture Ukraine since its unprovoked invasion began on February 24. After making no progress toward capturing the capital city Kyiv, Russian forces have turned their attention to the eastern part of the country, where a grinding war is now being waged.

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