The Reason Movie Theater Audiences Have Been Slow To Return

Movie-goers recognize that sitting in a theater in close proximity to fellow audience members who may not be vaccinated is unsafe. The surge of the Delta variant has exacerbated those fears. 

In addition, people have enjoyed the convenience of watching from home, a factor reinforced by Disney's and others' release for streaming of big budget, highly promoted films. In short, the traditional movie theater experience is unlikely to return anytime soon. JL  

Dan Gallagher reports in the Wall Street Journal:

The June quarter saw few major releases, with capacity restrictions and mask mandates still in place in key markets along with Covid-19 vaccinations still rolling out. The Delta variant has driven new mask mandates in the Los Angeles market and could result in restrictions elsewhere. The middling performance of Disney’s“Jungle Cruise” and Paramount’s “Snake Eyes” suggests the worsening public health situation might be keeping moviegoers away. Disney complicated the picture with “Black Widow” and “Jungle Cruise,” which the company says generated $90 million in digital revenue on their opening weekends, which cannibalized box-office sales

Movie-theater operators have the easiest comparisons imaginable this earnings season, but those numbers aren’t saying much.

That already has been borne out by two that have unveiled second-quarter results so far. Cinemark reported Friday that revenue was $294.7 million for the quarter. That was 17% higher than Wall Street’s estimates and more than 3,100% higher than what the company managed in last year’s second quarter, when nearly the entire chain was shut down due to the pandemic. It was also 69% lower than revenue from the second quarter of 2019.

IMAX, which reported results on July 27, showed a similar dynamic, with second-quarter revenue less than half of its pre-pandemic comparison. The same is expected to play out for AMC Entertainment and Cineworld, both slated to report results this week. Analysts expect AMC’s second-quarter revenue to be reported Monday afternoon will be about one-quarter of its 2019 second-quarter showing.

Those results aren’t a major surprise for an industry hit hard by the pandemic and still clawing its way back. The June quarter saw few major releases, with capacity restrictions and mask mandates still in place in some key markets along with Covid-19 vaccinations still rolling out at the time. There were some positive signs, too. Three of the top-five-grossing domestic movies for the quarter also were available on streaming services the same day they hit theaters. “Godzilla vs. Kong” from AT&T’s Warner Bros. grossed more than $89 million domestically in the quarter, according to Box Office Mojo. That is despite the fact that the movie was also available free of charge to subscribers of the company’s HBO Max service.

But more question marks have arisen since. The resurgence of cases spawned by the Delta variant has driven in new mask mandates in the important Los Angeles market and could result in more restrictions elsewhere. And the middling performance of recent big-budget releases like Disney’s DIS -0.01% “Jungle Cruise” and Paramount’s “Snake Eyes” suggests the worsening public health situation might be keeping some moviegoers away regardless of restrictions. Disney complicated the picture further with “Black Widow” and “Jungle Cruise,” which the company says generated a total of $90 million in digital revenue on their respective opening weekends, which likely cannibalized traditional box-office sales.

Theater operators are pinning high hopes on the fourth quarter, which is stacked with big-budget releases such as “Top Gun: Maverick,” “Dune” and the much-delayed James Bond outing “No Time to Die.” Nine movies slated for release in the quarter are currently projected to exceed $100 million in domestic box office compared with only four such titles in the third quarter, according to Alicia Reese of Wedbush.

Of course, that assumes the resurgence of Covid-19 cases doesn’t spark a new round of release delays. It also assumes Disney doesn’t enact another simultaneous digital release strategy for “Eternals”—a new movie from its Marvel canon currently projected as the top box-office draw for the quarter. The company has given no indication that it will—and its escalating legal battle with “Black Widow” star Scarlett Johansson over the digital release of that title could dissuade it from making a similar move so soon anyway. Perhaps “Black Widow” will end up saving movie theaters’ day after all.