Covid Cases Are Rising In 40 US States And Deaths Are Following

That there are only eight American states where Covid infections are not rising suggests that the pandemic is currently out of control in the US. A statistical lull in deaths now also appears to be over and rising subsequent to the increase in infections.

In some states, like Arizona and Florida, with the highest Covid rates, authorities are saying that contact tracing has become irrelevant because the infection is too widespread to make tracking useful. All of which reveals that early bids to reopen may have simply prolonged and expanded the crisis. JL

Lauren Letherby reports in the New York Times:

The death count was initially flat (because) treatment has improved and young people, who are less likely to die from Covid-19, make up a larger share of new cases. (And) more testing means cases are caught sooner, on average. (But) that lag may have come to an end last week, as the number of new deaths began to rise. Many of the states that reopened early are the ones seeing the biggest increases and have the highest positive test rates, as well as soaring hospitalization. High positive tests signals a large number whose infections are undetected

The reopening and relaxing of social distancing restrictions in some states may be contributing to the first noticeable nationwide increase in coronavirus fatalities since April, when the pandemic initially peaked.

The number of cases in late June surged higher than during the outbreak’s first peak. At this same time, daily Covid-19 fatalities decreased slightly, leading President Trump to proclaim that deaths were “way down.” But that divergence may have come to an end last week, when the average number of new deaths per day began steadily rising again.

States where deaths have increased since June 1

Daily new deaths since June 1, seven-day average

Maine

Alaska

Wis.

Vt.

N.H.

Wash.

Mont.

N.D.

Minn.

Mich.

Idaho

Ill.

N.Y.

Mass.

Ore.

Nev.

Iowa

Ind.

Wyo.

Ohio

Conn.

S.D.

Pa.

N.J.

R.I.

Calif.

Colo.

Mo.

Ky.

W.Va.

Md.

Neb.

Va.

Del.

Utah

Ark.

Ariz.

N.M.

Kan.

Tenn.

S.C.

N.C.

D.C.

La.

Okla.

Miss.

Ala.

Ga.

Hawaii

Texas

Fla.

Note: Data as of July 15.

Public health experts have pointed to a few factors that help explain why the death count was initially flat. Treatment has improved and young people, who are less likely to die from Covid-19, make up a larger share of new cases.

Additionally, more widespread testing means cases are caught sooner, on average. That means that the lag between diagnosis and death would be longer than in March, when tests were in critically short supply.

That lag may have come to an end last week, as the number of new deaths began to rise. Many of the states that reopened early are the ones seeing the biggest increases, while New York, the country’s hardest-hit city, has seen a 64 percent drop since June 1.

.

Deaths in New York, New Jersey and Connecticut

Deaths in rest of the United States

While the growth rate of new deaths has flattened slightly in the past few days, data suggest that the recent increase in deaths may continue. Most of the states seeing the sharpest increase in deaths also have some of the country’s highest positive test rates, as well as soaring hospitalization rates, an indicator that many more residents may be gravely ill.

In addition, a high share of positive tests most likely signals that there are a larger number of people whose infections are going undetected in a state’s official numbers.

How the number of deaths per day has changed since June 1

	DAILY DEATHS PER MILLION		CHANGE	HOSPITALIZED PER MILLION		POSITIVE TEST RATE
Arizona		9.6	+319%		500	25%
Texas		3.3	+307%		380	16%
Oregon		0.8	+267%		60	6%
Tennessee		2	+252%		190	8%
Idaho		1.1	+225%		80	13%
Florida		4.4	+204%		400	19%
Nevada		3.1	+163%		360	14%
Utah		1.5	+113%		80	9%
Alabama		4.5	+91%		280	16%
South Carolina		3.3	+90%		310	18%
Arkansas		1.4	+88%		150	11%
Washington		1.8	+60%		50	6%
California		2.4	+38%		210	7%
Oklahoma		0.9	+19%		140	9%
Louisiana		3.7	+10%		290	10%
South Dakota		2.1	+8%		70	7%
Kansas		0.8	+6%		—	11%
Mississippi		4.9	-2%		370	17%
North Carolina		1.8	-10%		110	7%
Kentucky		1.1	-19%		100	6%
New Mexico		2	-29%		80	4%
Georgia		2.2	-33%		270	15%
Missouri		1.2	-43%		140	6%
Virginia		1.5	-53%		130	6%
Nebraska		0.8	-61%		60	6%
Iowa		1.7	-61%		60	9%
Ohio		1	-62%		90	6%
New Jersey		3.4	-63%		100	1%
Maine		0.4	-64%		10	1%
Pennsylvania		1.6	-65%		50	5%
Indiana		1.1	-66%		130	8%
Colorado		1	-70%		70	6%
New York		1.2	-73%		40	1%
Maryland		1.6	-74%		70	5%
Washington, D.C.		1.5	-75%		140	2%
Michigan		1	-76%		50	3%
New Hampshire		0.9	-77%		20	2%
Illinois		1.3	-78%		110	3%
Minnesota		0.9	-79%		50	4%
Wisconsin		0.4	-80%		50	7%
Massachusetts		2.6	-80%		80	2%
Connecticut		1.5	-83%		20	1%
Delaware		0.9	-83%		50	5%
Rhode Island		2.2	-86%		60	3%