Is China Starting Its Own Tech Bubble?

Tech is newer in China than in the US and Europe so may appear to have more of an upside to those with less of a global perspective. But chasing returns often leads unwary investors off a cliff.

Emily Fox reports in Vanity Fair:

With the new reality of so much risk and little hope for returns in (the usual capital) markets, Chinese investors are pushing their money toward technology start-ups. Investments in these companies more than doubled last year

Wealthy Chinese investors are in a bind. All the usual, typically safe investment vehicles—commodities, stocks, even stable real estate—have been anything but usual or safe over the last couple months. The Chinese economy has slowed and inflation has picked up, the yuan has been under pressure, oil has tanked, and gold markets have been rattled. Real-estate markets in previously inviolable zip codes like Manhattan, a longtime sure bet for foreign investors looking to park their money in the stability of multi-million-dollar apartments, have started to sway.

With the new reality of so much risk and little hope for returns in these markets, Chinese investors are pushing their money toward technology start-ups, according to Reuters. Investments in these companies more than doubled last year, according to CB Insights research, leaping to $32.2 billion. So far this year, venture-capital investments have already climbed to $4.7 billion. That stands in stark contrast to the Shanghai Composite Index, which is down nearly 20 percent in 2016. Established-enough Chinese start-ups like the ride-hailing Uber competitor Didi Kuaidi have benefited the most. The company saw its valuation jump 25 percent to about $20 billion—dwarfing its American competitors.
We’ve watched this movie before in the U.S. As investors got tired of waiting to wade back into the muck of traditional markets in the wake of the financial crisis, they looked for new places to strike gold. They set their sights out West, to Silicon Valley, pouring their money into small start-ups with huge funding rounds, hoping for a payday. The result was the birth of dozens of new billion-dollar companies. On a hope, a prayer, and the blood, sweat, and tears of many a millennial, these unicorns hung on and continued to raise money. But now, the chickens are coming home to roost.
Last month, Fidelity marked down investments in 19 start-ups, including onetime Silicon Valley standouts Dropbox and Zenefits (the markdown, however, seems like the least of Zenefits’s worries). Millennial darling Snapchat got similar treatment from Fidelity last fall. Others, like Jawbone, and again, Zenefits, have laid off workers. Funding has started to dry up, yet even those able to raise capital are struggling. Oscar, the health-care app pegged to Obamacare exchanges, closed a round last month that boosted its valuation to $2.7 billion. But on Tuesday, the company reported that it was bleeding money, losing more than $100 million in 2015.
American investors thought they were trading risky investments for the kinds of returns they could only dream of, but it appears the risk in their their start-up bets were just as great. Now, as Chinese investors make similar calculations, they may face a similar fate.