Demographic Destiny: The More Things Change...

Population and the way it aligns may be more a part of our consciousness than it has ever been. The shift to the web has heightened perceptions of differences about how people live, what resources they use and why they contribute or subtract from the economy than ever before.

It helps, of course, that we know more than we ever have before. But as we are learning the hard way, knowledge does not always translate into wisdom - or solutions to problems.

 The tension between age groups has been framed as a zero sum contest: whatever one takes, the other loses. And the trend is perceived to be that the earth can not support both. But as the following article suggests, things are not changing as much as feared - and may, in fact, strike a balance within a generation that will be reminiscent of one of the great growth periods in modern memory, the 1960s. Which may go to show that maybe we ought to be a tad more patient in order to observe  fully and act less hastily. JL

 Lydia DePillis reports in WonkBlog:

Even as the elderly population increases, the younger population decreases in relative terms, which leaves the overall dependency ratio in 2050 substantially lower than it was in the roaring 1960s
The Census Bureau is out with a report on the changing composition of America's old people, and in one way, the story is the same as it's ever been: The Baby Boomers are retiring, and they're going to be expensive to take care of. The number of working-age people who'll be around to support their parents and grandparents is declining, in relative terms; the cost of pensions and social security payments and Medicare could take a toll. That's caused no small amount of fretting about the "silver tsunami" that will come crashing down on the economy over the next couple decades.
But the report also contains a useful reminder: Even as the elderly population increases, the younger population decreases in relative terms, which leaves the overall dependency ratio relatively stable. In 2050, it'll even be substantially lower than it was in the roaring 1960s:
Of course, youth dependency and old age dependency carry different kinds of burdens — older people require more medical care, while young people carry more educational costs. So the economy will still have to adapt to take care of the shifting load of non-working people. But overall, the picture is a lot less alarming when you know America has borne something similar in the past.
And besides, most developed countries are a lot worse off than we are: