Russian General Falsely Reported Kostiantynivka Capture, Killed By Ukraine Drone

Russian Major General Anton Grunis, commander of the 4th Motorized Rifle Brigade, was killed by a Ukrainian drone in Donetsk oblast, in what appears to have been a targeted strike.

Grunis is now the 12th (or possibly 13th) Russian general killed by Ukrainian forces since the invasion. JL 

Meduza Media reports:

Russian Major General Anton Grunis, commander of the 4th Motorized Rifle Brigade of the Southern Group of Forces, has been killed. Robert Brovdi, commander of Ukraine’s Unmanned Systems Forces said Grunis was killed on September 12, 2026, in the Donetsk region in a Ukrainian drone strike. Grunis was the officer who reported to Putin in July that Kostiantynivka was captured, though Russian forces did not - and still do not - control the city. Grunis is the seventh senior Russian military officer killed in strikes by Ukrainian drones. 

Operational Security Success Has Become Strategic Ukrainian Advantage

What is now, as of this week, being called 'Operation Vivaldi' by the Ukrainian command, actually began four months ago, in May. But no one outside the Ukrainian army talked about it for three months. And even now, detailed reports are sketchy, despite the growing awareness that Ukraine has pushed the Russians back over the Zherebets River and possibly beyond while potentially engineering the war's first actual breakthrough in years.

This is a far cry from the highly touted but ultimately failed 2023 Ukrainian offensive which was so heavily whispered about prior to its launch that the Russians were well prepared. The difference between that and the current situation is operational security - keeping plans quiet. The Ukrainians have become very good at it and it is paying off. The Russian command have been equally quiet about the Lyman counteroffensive, but that is because they don't want their failings to incur the Kremlin's wrath. JL

David Axe reports in Trench Art:

On May 22 Ukraine's 3rd Assault Brigade—backed by the 60th and 66th Mechanized, of the 3rd Corps—attacked Russian positions around of Nove, 15 km north of Lyman. Russian drones were jammed that day. (But) nobody outside the Ukrainian army reported it for three months. "The moment AFU could start moving vehicles through the area, the battle was over. Vehicles showed up because the conditions that had made movement impossible were gone." Ukrainian drones were everywhere. And Russian drones, jammed by electronic warfare, could barely fly. "Once Ukraine had enough control over movement, every new Russian mission sent into the area walked into a reinforced perception trap—troops holding positions that existed in reports more than in a functioning front." The 3rd Corps could sow chaos in the new gray zone that was once a Russian salient. What kept the trap working was that nobody talked about it.

Ukrainian Troops Cross Zherebets River, Confirming Russian Collapse Around Lyman

It has been several years in this war since the word 'breakthrough' could even be considered, let alone applied. But as Ukrainian forces have reportedly now crossed the Zherebets River, ostensibly a barrier behind which the Kremlin could safely rally its troops, suggests that the Russians have lost their ability to reorganize and consolidate their defenses quickly enough against the fast-moving Ukrainian assault.

Such calamities feed on each other as officers find their maps are no longer accurate, leading to mistakes in artillery and drone targeting as well as reinforcement positioning. Whether this turns into a full-fledged breakthrough is not yet clear, but the necessary precursors are falling into place. JL

RFU News reports:

Ukrainian troops crossed the Zherebets River at several points, putting Russian forces in an increasingly dangerous situation. This confirms Ukraine consolidated gains on the west bank, eliminating the Russian salient. The crossing toward Terny seals the Russian pocket in Kolodiazi where Russian soldiers remain trapped. Depleted Russian units are fighting fresher Ukrainian assault units, and lack supplies due to Ukrainian drones around river crossings. The Russian command appears to be underreporting the severity of the collapse, which makes things worse for the Russians. Crossing of the river suggests Russian defenses did not reorganize quickly enough. As Russian officers work from maps showing lost ground as Russian-controlled, they issue orders based on a front that no longer exists. Artillery receives incorrect targeting, reserves are directed toward strongpoints already bypassed and drone teams in what is no longer the rear are vulnerable to ambush.

Clash Between Money and Safety Created Dreaded AI Crisis

The spark for the on-going AI freak-out started with internal AI employees publicly warning that the technology was out of control, that it could make mankind extinct - and that none of the companies for which they work have any idea of how to stop it. 

And those panicked verbal flares came on top of growing investor discomfort with both the exponential demand for more funds accompanied by decreasingly believable financial and operational projections. As if that were worrisome enough, we now we have a civil war within tech as OpenAI, Anthropic, Google and SpaceX are suggesting a slowdown, including delays of the OpenAI and Anthropic IPOs, while Nvidia's Jensen Huang - AI's godfather - Meta's Mark Zuckerberg (who's never met a means of abusing the public for money he doesn't like) and AI's back pocket financial beneficiary, Donald Trump, insist that no slowdown is permissable. The 'full speed ahead' caucus have since been joined by China's President Xi. If that lineup doesn't terrify you, perhaps you're waiting for the avatars of Stalin, Hitler and Genghis Khan. The battle is between safety and money. And the crucial variable is the global public's absolute lack of trust in anything said by tech leaders. But since the dotcom era, the rule of thumb has been that money always wins. Always. Proceed accordingly. JL

Robert McMillan and colleagues report in the Wall Street Journal:

The collision of scientific progress, moral imperative and financial incentive has now created a crisis for the AI industry. Development is moving much faster than expected, feeding a growing sense of dread within the companies that it is out of control. Warnings being shouted inside are proof the dangers of proceeding—against a backdrop of almost no regulation—are immense. They come on top of a rising public backlash over the impact that AI is starting to have on prices, jobs and education. "Business leaders are trapped in this race to the bottom, the more senior the employee, the more concerned they are,” as Pope Leo XIV warns AI risks an “anti-human vision.” Leaders of four of the biggest AI companies agreed to slow development. Some big AI investors agreed with that. Skeptics say the AI firms, facing mounting costs to continue to improve models while fighting for business customers, have financial, rather than safety-related reasons, to wait to go public.

How Ukraine Lured Russian Missile Frigates Into A Trap and Is Now Taking Them Out

The trap is that the Russians moved their Black Sea fleet from Sevastopol to Novorossiysk, believing that because the latter was further away from Ukraine, its ships were less likely to be hit. 

There were three problems with the Russian analysis. First, it did not take into account the advances in Ukrainian missile and drone technology which now make Novorossiysk vulnerable. Second, the latter's bay is wider than Sevastopol's so harder to defend with booms and anti-air assets, making it easier for Ukrainian weapons to find their way in. And third, Novorossiysk does not have adequate dockyard repair facilities so when Russian ships are damaged, it is harder and takes much longer to repair them. JL

 
Plitka Analysis reports in Ukraine Pravda:

Ukraine forced the Russian Navy to flee Sevastopol for 'safer' Novorossiysk. Yet Russian warships have found no sanctuary there: Ukrainian drones, missiles and uncrewed surface vessels continue to strike the Russian fleet. Russia's frigates Admiral Essen and Admiral Makarov, armed with cruise missiles, are the Black Sea Fleets most important warships. In August, long-range jet-powered drones, Neptune cruise missiles, uncrewed surface vessels and other assets hit: both frigates, a small missile ship and a patrol vessel. The strikes also hit an air defense radar station, an oil depot and an oil-loading jetty. The August attack left the frigates critically damaged. Geography put these warships at a disadvantage. Novorossiysk Bay is wider than Sebastopol's so cannot block Ukrainian weapons from reaching it. Novorossiysk, also, is not a repair centre, and has limited facilities for dockyard work. 

New Ways Of Counterattacking In Drone Era Give Ukraine Operational Advantage

Not only have the Ukrainians succeeded in thwarting the Kremlin's 2026 offensive plans, they have done so while executing an entirely new form of combined arms maneuver warfare which has gone largely unnoticed due to Kyiv's increasingly sophisticated and disciplined operational security. 

The scale of this achievement is evident not only in the tangible results from areas liberated but in the renewed momentum driven by Ukrainian forces willingness and ability to innovate and adapt on the fly in order to secure the outcomes crucial to their success. JL

Mick Ryan reports in Futura Doctrina:

Over two months, Ukraine has executed quiet, successful counteroffensives in different parts of the country. Not only does this challenge the popular narrative of a stalemate, but it means the Ukrainians have found new methods of conducting successful actions at tactical and operational levels. The Ukrainians have demonstrated combined arms tactics that exploit aerial and ground drones to dominate the tactical battle, create space for ground manoeuvre using mounted and dismount troops, while providing EW, resupply, point defence, casualty evacuation, mine emplacement and clearance. Operational security has also been a key: Ukraine kept a very tight leash on information, implemented a deception plan and achieved strategic and operational surprise. In sum, even if Russia manages to inject several hundred thousand more troops in the final months of this year, these will be inexperienced and unlikely to achieve any better results than their predecessors.

All of Russia's 2026 Gains Wiped Out By Ukraine Counteroffensives

Russia's net territorial gains for 2026 have been reduced to almost zero by Ukrainian counteroffensives across multiple sectors. And, as the year is about to enter its fourth quarter, the Ukrainians are still advancing, most notably around Lyman.

The Ukrainian gains themselves are less significant, arguably, than is the way they have been achieved, which is through a newly conceived and executed combined arms maneuver warfare that merges various elements of drone surveillance and attack across the width of the gray zone with artillery, infantry and even armor. This has not only pushed the Russian forces back but has disrupted the Kremlin's plan to attack Ukraine's Fortress Belt this year - and possibly for years. Strategically, this undermines Putin's claims of success and thus, his reputation and negotiating position with allies and enemies. JL

Ivan Khomenko reports in United 24:

Ukrainian forces have largely offset Russia’s territorial gains since March 2026 while conducting successful counteroffensive operations across the front. Ukrainian forces in late 2025 and throughout 2026 have increasingly challenged Russia’s battlefield initiative, marking the first sustained shift of this kind since Ukraine’s Kursk offensive in August 2024. Ukrainian operations have reduced Russia’s net territorial gains to nearly zero as Ukrainian forces have carried out counteroffensive operations in the Kupiansk, Oleksandrivka, and Lyman directions, disrupting multiple Russian operational objectives. This also prevented Russian forces from advancing further into the Dnipropetrovsk region and eliminated a significant Russian salient that had threatened the northern flank of Sloviansk. At Russia’s August 2026 rate of advance, its forces would need until October 2032 to capture the remaining Ukrainian-held territory in the Donetsk region