Russian Troops Attempting Dnipro Crossing Wiped Out By Ukrainian Marines

Russian forces across the front keep trying to demonstrate to the Kremlin that they are being aggressive, but the price, as in this case on the Dnipro River near Kherson, is almost always failure and new casualties. JL

Taras Safronov reports in Militarnyi:

In the Kherson region, Russian soldiers were killed by troops from the 34th Marine Brigade while attempting to cross the Dnipro River in inflatable boats. The deceased served in the 215th Separate Guards Reconnaissance Battalion, which is part of Russia's 98th Guards Airborne Division. The river has become the line of demarcation between the positions of the opposing sides in this sector. The river complicates offensive operations because crossing it requires boats or other watercraft, proper coordination, as well as the organization of supply lines and the evacuation of  wounded. During the crossing, soldiers risk coming under fire from artillery, aircraft, and attack drones.

RPGs Being Mounted On Ground Drones By Ukraine With "Great Success"

When the Russians first invaded Ukraine almost five years ago, one of the major contributions to the Russian failure was Ukrainian soldiers armed with rocket propelled grenades (RPGs) which took out innumerable Russian tanks and armored personnel carriers. 

But with the advent of drones, it has become too dangerous for RPG-armed infantry to get close enough to Russian armor. They will almost always be spotted and eliminated before they can fire. So the Ukrainians have started mounting RPGs on ground drones, an innovative solution which is reportedly being implemented with 'great success.' JL

Sinead Baker reports in Business Insider:

Ukrainian soldiers in the kill zone have been putting anti-tank RPGs on ground robots because the battlefield has become too dangerous for troops to use the weapons the way infantry did earlier in the war to defeat armored vehicles and weaken fortified positions. Ground robotic fire support platform can carry two RPG-7 launchers, along with other weapons and mine-laying capabilities. Soldiers started putting the RPGs on robots already armed with machine guns. The robots can drive close enough to targets and fire shorter-range weapons while keeping their operators much farther from danger. They have had 'great success' using them.

Russian Men Are Fleeing Before Putin's New Mobilization Grabs Them

In Russia, the word is out: the Kremlin is planning another stealth mobilization and the odds of returning alive are not good for thus who are conscripted.

As a results, tens of thousands of Russian men are emigrating to Georgia and Armenia, countries which do not require a visa for Russians to enter. JL

The Economist reports:

When Putin declared a mobilisation in September 2022, six months after invading Ukraine, 400,000 Russian men fled the country. This time people are leaving before the announcement. On August 18th 20,000 people crossed the land border between Russia and Georgia, triple the normal daily number. Russian customs officials reported similar numbers on preceding days. In Armenia, another country that lets Russians in without a visa, high demand for rental properties has pushed up prices by 30-50%. A group that helps Russians opposed to war to emigrate, says enquiries have gone up eight-fold since July. At the moment Russia’s army attracts mainly low-skilled men with few prospects. Soldiers are paid an unimpressive 200,000 rubles a month, much of which is often stolen by their superiors.

Pokrovsk, Southeast Being Cleared Of Demoralized Russian Forces By Ukraine

Ukrainian Marines and Assault Brigades have been clearing demoralized Russian units around Pokrovsk and the areas to its south near Velyka Novosilka (about an hour's drive in normal times), both key defensive and logistics hubs. 

The Ukrainians have done so largely without suffering casualties of their own and are reporting that the Russians they encounter, many of whom surrender rather than fight, are demoralized and hungry from lack of supplies. JL

David Axe reports in Trench Art and Taisiia Vidvych reports in Euromaidan Press:

Ukraine's 40th Marine Brigade planned a clearing operation near Pokrovsk for a month. They cleared 5 km and suffered no casualties. The brigade stopped the flow of Russian infiltration on that stretch of the Pokrovsk direction. (Meanwhile, an hour's drive to the south), Ukrainian forces—including the 79th and 80th Air Assault Brigades—have been probing for gaps in Russian defenses in and around Komar. If Ukrainian forces can capture Komar  they can squeeze the supply lines through Velyka Novosilka—and the Russian brigades (of the 29th Combined Arms Army) all along the southeastern front line. The Russian infantry captured are barely trained and hungry. If drones or Ukrainian ground groups don’t kill them first, they surrender because they no longer want to fight. They get one parcel a week with a can of stewed meat, and water drunk from the ground underfoot. That is why the Russians facing the marines are demoralized

Operation Vivaldi's Phase 4 Has Added Another 101 KMs To Ukraine Advance

The fourth phase of Ukraine's Operation Vivaldi, which is now under way, has added another 101 kilometers of recaptured territory to Ukraine. 

The Ukrainians have also inflicted another 3,000 casualties on the Russians while Ukraine's drone and missile strikes have forced the Russians to move much of their logistics operations in that sector back across the Russian border. JL

Jonas Heins reports in the Kyiv Independent:

Ukraine's 3rd Army Corps, together with its attached units, has retaken another 101 square kilometers during the fourth stage of Operation Vivaldi on the Lyman sector in Donetsk Oblast, on Oct. 14. Ukraine liberated the villages of Zelena Dolyna, Lypove, and Kolodiazi, while Russia has lost about 3,000 of its soldiers in the fourth stage of the operation to date. In total, Operation Vivaldi saw the liberation and return of 16 settlements and 277 square kilometers (106 square miles) to Ukraine.

Trump-Musk Intel, Starlink Cuts to Ukraine Are Likely Quid Pro Quo For Putin Midterm Election Help

As an increasingly desperate Trump White House faces the prospect of midterm Congressional and Senatorial defeat, the president is becoming more reliant on Putin for help in several ways.

First, because rising oil, and especially diesel price rises have caused much of his polling collapse with working Americans, Trump agreed to a deal with Putin to relax sanctions and pay Russia for fuel (even though almost all experts and markets quickly revealed that the amounts being provided would make no difference in the price at the pump). This also enables Trump to avoid personal blame for the financial impact on energy prices caused by his failed attacks on Iran. Trump is also desperate to be able to claim some sort of diplomatic success, so is now pressuring Ukraine through denial of intelligence (which led to 600,000 Ukrainians losing power due to Russian missile attacks) and, as of today, high speed Starlink access, which has limited the ability of Ukrainian military to continue its dominance on the battlefield. Though these moves are unlikely to sway either Ukraine or American voters (early voting has already started in many states), it is reflective of Trump's affinity for Putin's dictatorship and, of his perception of the benefits of Russian assistance, which also benefits Putin if Trump maintains his legislative majorities. JL

Anastasiia Malenko and colleagues report in the Wall Street Journal:

Elon Musk’s SpaceX has imposed new limits on military-grade Starlink terminals without warning, hobbling Kyiv’s ability to conduct midrange drone attacks and intercept Russia’s jet-powered drones. The limits on Starlink, which restrict the speed at which some of Ukraine’s weapons can travel and still connect to the internet, come as President Trump piles pressure on Ukraine, demanding that it stop hitting Russian oil refineries. SpaceX implemented a speed limit for Starlink terminals last night. Our defense forces received no warning about this restriction, and it has led to the disruption of missions.” 

Russia's "Offensive Ability To Advance Has Been Broken" By Ukraine

Ukraine's former Commander in Chief, Oleksandr Syrski, in comments reflecting the belief of the Ukrainian military, revealed in an interview this week that Ukraine has 'broken Russia's offensive to advance.'

The reasons for this finding are both the dramatic rise in the death toll of Russian soldiers and the related destruction of Russian logistics and weaponry which make it almost impossible for the Kremlin to assemble enough troops and supplies to launch an attack without them being virtually eliminated by drones. The result is that the Russians must rely on infiltration attempts by small numbers of troops. Most such attempts have failed to produce positive results. JL

Abdujalil Abdurasulov reports in the BBC :

Ukraine has stabilised the front line and "broken Russia's ability to advance" by killing so many of its men, Ukraine's former commander-in-chief has claimed in an interview. Syrskyi said that Moscow's overall losses in the war were six times higher than Ukraine's. "If you count only dead, then it's up to 11 times," he added. This difference in death toll – as well as technological advances, and a strategy of attacking weak points in Russia's lines while containing their advances in other parts – accounts for the current (situation) at the front.