A Blog by Jonathan Low

 

Sep 4, 2026

Ukraine Sea Drones Hit Putin-Favorite Sochi Resort For 1st Time

Ukraine hit the exclusive Black Sea resort of Sochi with sea drones for the first time, striking and damaging a Russian ship in the harbor.

Since Tsarist times Sochi has been a favored vacation spot for Russian elites and current President Putin is a regular visitor. That the Ukrainians launched the attack in broad daylight rather than at night as they usually do for sea drone attacks was clearly intended for it to be seen and to send a message to the Russian oligarchy that nowhere they may want to travel in their country is now safe from Ukrainian attack. JL

Howard Altman reports in The War Zone:
Ukraine  carried out one of its farthest uncrewed surface vessel (USV) attacks from Ukrainian shores, striking the Nefrit, a multipurpose offshore vessel, in the Russian Black Sea resort city of Sochi. The seaside getaway is located about 350 miles on a direct line from the nearest Ukrainian-held territory, but the trip is a lot longer if originating from Ukrainian-held shores. This marks the first known USV attack on this city that Russian President Vladimir Putin often visits. That the attack occurring during broad daylight is also interesting, as Ukraine has often taken advantage of the cover of darkness for USV strike operations on port facilities. There was no immediate response from the Kremlin. 

Moscow Airports Cancel Flights 2nd Night After Ukraine Drone Attack Warning

The point here is to further impress upon the Russian people, especially the elites who value their ability to travel, that Putin's war is now threatening their lives, to say nothing of their way of life.

Ukraine is making it clear that it can and will follow through on its threats. JL

Chris York reports in the Kyiv Independent:
Flights in and out of Moscow's Vnukovo and Sheremetyevo airports were restricted for the second night in a row on Sept. 2, after Ukraine warned of a new campaign to "close" Russian skies. "Temporary restrictions on the arrival and departure of aircraft have been introduced," Russia's Federal Air Transport Agency (Rosaviatsia) said. President Zelensky on Sept. 1 warned airlines, insurers, and foreign governments that Russian airspace "will be de facto closed" because of Ukrainian drones. Live tracking of arrivals at Sheremetyevo Airport showed almost every flight scheduled for the afternoon of Sept. 3 either delayed or canceled. A similar situation was reported at Vnukovo Airport. 

Four Sectors, One Signal: Russian Vulnerability Along the Front

A series of recent Ukrainian successes in four distinct sectors - Donetsk, Zaporizhhia, Sumy and Kharkiv - signal that the combination of these tactical operations could combine and add up to a strategic advantage for Kyiv's forces. 

That this is happening not just in one sector but in what are arguably the four most heavily contested areas of the entire front suggest that Russia does not have the current mass to defend its extended deployment, let alone advance in any significant way in even one of them. JL

Giorgio Provinciali reports:
Ukrainian forces are achieving a series of tactical successes that could significantly alter the geometry of the front. Recent Ukrainian advances between Donetsk and Zaporizhzhia — iand in the Kharkiv and Sumy regions mark the beginning of an operation distorting the front along the pivots where the Russians seemed to be aiming their summer offensive. At this stage Ukraine has no need to pursue a breakthrough: it simply needs to build depth, move drones and artillery closer to Russian supply lines, and make every enemy rotation slower, more visible, and more costly. Every Russian salient transformed from an offensive springboard into a logistical problem deprives Moscow of a choice and gives Kyiv one back. The war will be decided when one side loses freedom of maneuver, the adversary’s logistics are constrained, when salient points become traps, and when offensives no longer create panic but create opportunity.

Ukraine Advances At Kupiansk As Trapped Russians Forced To Get Water By Drone

Ukrainian forces are having success continuing their strategy of identifying weaker segments of the Russian front line and then opportunistically striking them. This has been particularly true in Sumy and Kharkiv oblasts, as well as around Lyman. 

On the Kupiansk sector, Ukrainian troops have pushed the Russians back four square kilometers, adding to the Kremlin's string of losses in that area. As much as the Russians want Kupiansk and continue trying to take it, they have not been able to muster the mass to do so and the Ukrainians have made them pay for trying. JL

Olena Mukhina reports in the Euromaidan Press and RBC-Ukraine reports:
Ukraine's National Guard says its assault units have cleared four square kilometers of ground near Kupiansk. The Khartiia corps have pushed Russian forces out of territory between the settlements of Dvorichna and Zapadne, working with the 35th Marine Brigade. Russian forces in the area had been effectively paralyzed by a fuel shortage, with even water being delivered exclusively by drones. Ukraine's Defense Forces continue to make gains in several sectors of the front line. Independent observers have reported Ukrainian advances on multiple fronts in the Sumy and Kharkiv regions.

There Are Many Investors With Shares In Both Anthropic, OpenAI. They'll Cash In

It used to be in tech investing, that you picked one company in a competitive market and bet on (invested in it). Not with AI. Analysis reveals that many investors have put their money on both. This is both because it is expected that both will do well - and, frankly - because the AI firms need so much money that a small group of VCs and others is insufficient to provide that much capital.

And as Anthropic and OpenAI maneuver to lan their IPOs, those 'both and' investors are positioned to cash in. The only downside is that even as AI becomes an ever narrower but ever more powerful driver of the economy, the additional concentration of investment means that those firms and individuals are not just going to get immeasurably wealthier if it all works out, but that they will be irretrievably exposed if it doesn't. JL 

Erin Griffith reports in the New York Times:
As Anthropic and OpenAI prepare to go public, the question around Silicon Valley is which investors will win big. The answer, it turns out, is just about everyone. Anthropic has raised more than $130 billion from 300 investors, according, including venture capital firms, hedge funds, big tech companies and Middle Eastern sovereign wealth funds. OpenAI has raised more than $180 billion from 230 investors. As Anthropic and OpenAI grew, their need for capital outpaced backing from venture firms. Menlo Ventures created a “special purpose vehicle” that rounded up many small investors into one $750 million entity. Thrive Capital created a similar vehicle to invest in OpenAI. Google, Amazon, Microsoft and Nvidia also took stakes in both Anthropic and OpenAI. Other investment firms obtained shares of Anthropic and OpenAI when the A.I. companies bought smaller firms with stock. Some of these giants are now the biggest shareholders of the start-ups.

Sep 3, 2026

Jamming-Proof Fiber Optic Drones Deployed By Ukraine In Deceptively Lethal Ways

Fiber optic drones are increasingly being used like land mines. They lie in wait for troops or vehicles to come near and are then activated to explode. 

It is one of the ways that creativity and innovation are being applied to increase lethal effectiveness. JL

Sinead Baker reports in Business Insider:
Ukrainian operators are increasingly using fiber-optic drones in atypical ways — such as deception and ambush — to "create tons of chaos," relying on their resistance to electronic warfare and close-range video feeds to scout Russian positions, study bunkers and dugouts, and create unusual openings for attacks. Some operators have their drones play dead or purposefully lie in wait on the battlefield, exploding at just the right time to kill approaching soldiers. "The drones hide on roads and at intersections. They're often placed on forest trails, waiting for a target. When they spot a vehicle, they take off and strike quickly, leaving little time to react."

Russia Suffers 2nd Month of 40,000+ Casualties, 'Fails To Collapse Ukrainian Lines'

For the second month in a row, Ukrainian forces have inflicted more 
than 40,000 casualties - killed and severely wounded - on Russian troops in Ukraine. 

This means that not only is Russia unable to replace its battlefield losses with replacements of the same amount by several thousand, but the Ukrainians are getting closer to their stated goal of 50,000 Russian casualties per month, which their analysis suggests is unsustainable for the Kremlin's conduct of the war. JL

The Institute for the Study of War reports:
Russia's  Spring-Summer 2026 offensive has failed to achieve operational maneuver or rapidly collapse Ukrainian lines. Russian gains remain slow and limited. Meanwhile, Russian forces continued to suffer a high casualty rate in August 2026 for the second month in a row, paying an increasingly high price for limited battlefield gains. Russia’s current force generation system based on volunteer recruitment continues to struggle to recruit enough soldiers to replace current losses