Real-Time Satellite Intel Is Making Ukrainian Drone Strikes Deadlier

In another first for the Ukrainian military, its drone teams now have direct access to unclassified, commercial satellite imagery - the same used to update Google Maps - to improve the speed, precision and lethality of their drone strikes against Russian targets. 

The imagery and data are fed directly to the laptops, phones or tablets being used by soldiers in the field in as little as 15 minutes after it is requested, shortening the time it takes to identify and then strike what may be a fast moving target. JL

Heather Somerville reports in the Wall Street Journal:

Ukrainian drone teams are using images from commercial satellites operated by Colorado-based Vantor which have improved the speed and precision of Ukraine’s drone attacks. The rapid delivery to soldiers of geospatial intelligence has shortened by 90% the time it takes to locate and strike Russian assets. The images go directly from the satellite to the soldier’s tablet, phone or laptop in 15 minutes. Software lets users identify targets in detail. The program marks the first instance of unclassified, commercial satellite imagery going directly to a soldier to guide real-time battle decisions. The satellite intel allows them to do within hours what used to require weeks, because of the relative slowness of launching a drone and waiting for it to survey large areas. “Compressing the sensor-to-shooter cycle is the defining trend of this war at the tactical level. ” The same satellites used to update Google Maps have found a new and deadly application.

Putin Is Losing To Ukraine By Every Measure of Strategy, But Especially In Battle

The Russian military and its leader, Vladimir Putin, are losing the war with Ukraine according to every measure by which success in such conflicts is determined. 

But among those assessments, it is the repeated and now escalating failures on the battlefield which are especially noteworthy and strategically significant. For over four years the Russian army, navy and air force have failed - despite their initial advantages and repeated attempts - to overcome their Ukrainian adversaries. This inability to find a way to win on the battlefield has now led to an increasingly common belief among diplomatic and military experts, that Russia cannot win this war. JL

Mick Ryan reports in Futura Doctrina:

Vladimir Putin is losing - not in one or two dimensions of the conflict, but in every dimension by which one might measure strategic progress - military, cognitive, moral, industrial, and economic. The central premise of Putin’s strategy has been attritional: trade bodies and equipment for territory at a rate Ukraine cannot sustain. (But) Russia’s spring offensive has produced catastrophic losses since its opening days. The seizure of Ukraine's Fortress Belt in 2026 is unlikely. Russia has been forced to redeploy elite units to respond to Ukrainian counterattacks - cannibalising its offensive to plug defensive holes. Putin is grinding through Russian men faster than Russia can produce them without results on the battlefield. Despite the support of China and North Korea, it has failed to leverage advantages that create impact on the ground or in aerial assaults on Ukraine. It does not appear able to win this war.

Car Bomb Kills Russian Ammo, MIssile Supply Commander Near Moscow

A car bomb detonating near Moscow killed the Russian officer in charge of the military's artillery and missile ammunition supplies.

Given the importance to Russia of its missile, drone and artillery ammunition, his assassination has a significant symbolic and well as practical impact. He was the latest in a string of senior Russian officials killed by bombs in or near Moscow. JL

Pjotr Sauer reports in The Guardian:

An explosive device planted underneath a BMW detonated at about 5.30am on Tuesday as Col Damir Davydov was driving near his home in the city of Balashikha. Davydov headed the Russian military’s artillery and missile ammunition supply directorate, a key logistics role responsible for overseeing the distribution of weapons to the armed forces. Security camera footage show Davydov’s vehicle erupting in flames and rolling into a parked car. He was still alive after being pulled from the vehicle but he died from his injuries shortly afterwards. It was the latest in a string of assassinations targeting Russian military officials and prominent pro-war figures since the Kremlin launched its invasion of Ukraine.

Russia Forced To Ration Ammo As Ukraine Strikes Degrade Supplies

In its latest strike on Russian ammunition storage depots, Ukraine's drones blew up an arsenal outside Belgorod in Russia near the Ukrainian border, resulting in the explosion captured in the photo at left.

The strategic impact of Ukraine's relentless targeting of these depots is that Russian units have been forced to ration the amount of ammunition they use, curtailing the impact on Ukrainian operations. JL

Bohuslav Romanenko reports in New Voice of Ukraine:

Ukrainian  strikes on Russian logistics routes and ammunition depots have forced the Russians to impose limits on artillery ammunition use. "Some Russian units, including the 36th Army command have introduced limits on the use of artillery ammunition. Earlier, on a specific section of the front, the enemy concentrated fire and kept firing until it destroyed the entire position; now such cases have decreased.” Because of the shortage of artillery ammunition, Russian forces are also reducing the use of weapons systems positioned closer to the line of combat.

Russia's Retreat From Kinburn Spit Enables Direct Ukraine Threat To Crimea

The noose appears to be tightening. Yesterday, the Chonhar Bridge from the mainland to Crimea was reported destroyed, a day after it had been severely damaged and rendered unusable. 

As Ukrainian mid and long range drones make the routes through occupied southern Ukraine toward Crimea  increasingly untenable, if not suicidal  for Russian truckers, other Ukrainian advances are threatening Crimea from the northwest. Russian troops deployed on the Kinburn spit, which lies at the mouth of the Dnipro as it enters the Black Sea, are withdrawing (as best they can) because Ukraine's drone blockade had prevented their resupply and reinforcement. This means that Ukraine can flank the Russians still occupying the parts of Kherson oblast between the Dnipro and Crimea. The Kremlin will either have to take some of its scarce troop strength to defend that shoreline - or pull back further - which means the routes to Crimea will be exposed and vulnerable. JL

The Kyiv Post reports:

Russian units of the 337th Regiment are withdrawing from parts of the Kinburn Spit in southern Ukraine’s Mykolaiv region after Ukrainian strikes disrupted supply routes to the area. Deliveries of food, fuel and ammunition to Russian positions on the spit have effectively ceased. (This matters) because the spit could pave the way for the liberation of Crimea. It is “an important strategic point” as “the Kinburn Spit controls the Dnipro River’s outlet into the Black Sea and is used for shelling southern parts of the Mykolaiv region. For Russia, this point is important to prevent the landing of troops from our side.” Attacks on Russian logistics supplying Crimea have intensified in recent weeks

Corporate CFOs Struggle To Track AI Costs As Token Expense Accelerates

As if the exponential rise in AI token use - and related expenses - were not  troublesome enough for putative corporate customers, the Chief Financial Officers (CFOs) of those organizations are finding that just tracking  usage is difficult. An underwhelming 26% admit to having a 'comprehensive' view of their AI costs. Some are probably asking AI to estimate it for them. 

And in a related challenge, determining whether - and how - those investments generate returns for the customers - and, in turn, for their customers - is equally hard. At some point, as systems for monitoring and measuring catch up with the technology, there will be greater clarity. In the meantime, which is to say, in time for the next quarterly earnings call with Wall Street analysts, there will be a lot of optimistic hemming, hawing and corporate finance doublespeak. JL

Kristin Broughton and colleagues report in the Wall Street Journal:

The shift to pricing based on usage, as measured by AI tokens, is creating new challenges for even experienced finance teams. CFOs used to paying flat amounts for technology are finding costs more unpredictable and harder to model as they build agents and embark on ambitious AI investments. 26% of companies have a comprehensive view of their AI costs, 50% have some visibility and 22% report no visibility. Charging per token helps AI firms manage the risk that customers could cut their subscriptions, but usage-based pricing shifts risk to customers, forcing them to track consumption. Many CFOs “are going to see their Anthropic bill and freak out this quarter. I don’t want everyone using tokens and setting up AI agents or AI processes that don’t have long-term scalable benefits.”

Russians Pull 381 Billion Rubles From Banks As Cars Deliver Fuel To Front

In related signs of the Kremlin's economic and military desperation, 

the Russian central bank has begun limiting the amount of cash that Russians can withdraw from ATMs after a 30 year record 381.2 billion rubles were taken out by citizens in May.

At the same time, the Russian government has begun using civilians driving their own cars to deliver fuel to the frontlines in an attempt to avoid increasingly accurate and devastating Ukrainian drone strikes on trucks behind the fighting front. JL

UA News reports and Sania Kozatskyi reports in Militarnyi:

In May, the Russian banking system faced a massive outflow of cash - 381.2 billion rubles (approximately $5.2 billion) - the highest figure in the past three decades. Russians are increasingly choosing “cash” due to uncertainty—both geopolitical and macroeconomic. People want to have money on hand for expenses. The Russian central bank tightened controls on cash withdrawals via ATMs starting June 1. From now on, banks will monitor monthly cash withdrawal limits. Russia has started using civilian vehicles to transport fuel to its military units in occupied Ukraine. The move is an attempt to conceal military logistics from Ukrainian drone strikes, which have increasingly targeted Russian supply routes and fuel shipments far behind the front lines.