Putin Can't Count On Trump's Permission Trap As Ukraine's Own Weapons Hit Deep

For most of the first four years of Russia's Ukraine invasion, the Ukrainians were dependent on western - mostly US - weapons and, especially for long range munitions, those countries' permission to use them. It became a gatekeeping trap which Putin played artfully as his veiled threats fueled western anxiety about escalation, impelling them to demand that Ukraine pull its punches. No longer. 

A significantly increased percentage of Ukraine's ground, naval and aerial weaponry is now domestically produced, eliminating the need to beg for the right to hit back at the Russians. The results have been profound. Ukrainian attacks on weapons, ammunition and electronics plants, as well as on Russia's oil industry, has further thwarted Russian offensive efforts on the ground, as well as its ability to hit Ukraine from the air. Ukraine learned the hard way that self-sufficiency was the only way to defend itself. JL

Newsweek reports:

Putin can no longer count on the US being the gatekeeper of Ukraine. The shriek and bang of Ukrainian drones is heard well beyond Russia, where a "cloud of anxiety developed over the last four months." Kyiv's expanding domestic arsenal is making U.S. permission less decisive than industrial facts. Ukraine can go it alone, gaining options without American materiel. Ukraine's May 16-17 strike used local drones against a microchip plant 18 miles from Moscow and an oil pumping station 30 miles away. It has drones for missions of 900 miles, carrying 260 pounds of explosives. It also has cruise missiles which can travel 3,000 kms carrying a 1,150-kilo payload. The political effect is harder for Putin to quarantine because the war is becoming immediate for Russian civilians now experiencing economic pain, airport shutdowns, internet disruption and attacks near the capital of their country.

Ukraine "Armageddon Blast" Destroys Russia's FSB Kherson HQ, Kills 100

A targeted Ukrainian drone strike on Russia's FSB (secret police) headquarters in occupied Kherson oblast destroyed the facility and killed as many as 100 FSB officers working there. 

The FSB in Kherson have become notorious for launching drones targeting civilians in Kherson city. The FSB drones have followed people doing their shopping, riding bicycles and taking buses to go about their daily lives. The Russians have never reconciled themselves to the loss of Kherson city to the Ukrainian offensive of 2022 so have taken out their ire on innocent Ukrainian citizens. This strike will help pause those Russian war crimes. JL

Will Stewart and Christopher Mallett report in The Mirror; Defense Express reports:

The headquarters of the Russian Federal Security Service (FSB) in Kherson oblast was destroyed, along with a Pantsir-S1 self-propelled anti-aircraft missile system. Russia suffered a devastating loss of  100 security service officers killed or wounded in the Ukrainian "Armageddon" hit on the Putin spy headquarters. The attack was carried out by drones from Kyiv's SBU security service triggering explosions that destroyed one multi-story building and several others. The Russian Pantsir-S1 system deployed to protect the center - which is the same system used to guard Putin’s multiple palaces - failed to halt the strike and was itself destroyed. 

How Americans' Anti-AI Rebellion Is Becoming "Acute Crisis" Threatening Growth

Don't believe or like this poll data? Go ahead, look around online and find your own. What you are highly unlikely to discover is any credible survey research revealing support for AI. The reality, as even the demonstrably pro-business Wall Street Journal reports, is that Americans "hate" AI. And that opposition is threatening financial results. 

Which is why public opinion matters. Because if the AI industry cannot open more data centers, it cannot grow at the rate it has promised investors. And that means sub-optimal returns. To say nothing of what may happen to an economy increasingly dependent on those AI investments. The problem is that Americans at the local level, even in deeply conservative states like Texas and Utah, are seeing rising energy, water costs and job losses due to data center construction as well as AI adoption. They are also being subjected to tone-deaf corporate executives and venture capitalists - we're looking at you, Marc Andreesen, among others - who callously tout the benefits of laying off thousands of mere humans in order for a few already wealthy white guys to get even richer. So as even reliably Trump-supporting voters are vociferously rejecting data centers and threatening elected officials, this could have what we might politely call, economic implications. JL

Amrith Ramkumar and colleagues report in the Wall Street Journal:

AI rejectionism is creating an acute crisis for AI companies and builders of data centers. Investors have staked tens of billions of dollars on ever-larger quantities of computing power, and have pledged much of that to data-center construction. But all over the country, communities are blocking data-center projects. Booed commencement speakers and plummeting poll numbers (reveal) the only thing growing faster than the AI industry may be negative feelings about it. In polls, respondents overwhelmingly voice concerns about AI. Consumers resent energy-price jumps. Workers fear widespread job losses. Parents worry about AI harming children’s mental health. The rapid rise of AI’s salience as a political issue is unprecedented, shaking up re-election races and scrambling partisan battle lines. “People hate AI. It is less popular than ICE, (even) less popular than politicians.” 

"Catastrophic Losses" Mean Russia Doesn't Have Forces To Achieve Goals

The Kremlin continues to spout maximalist goals for its 'conquest' of Ukraine, but the battlefield reality paints an entirely different picture which is that the operational advantage is being seized by the Ukrainians. 

Evidence of Ukraine's strategic managerial superiority comes from their ability to set numerical goals - and then produce results showing how they are advancing towards achieving them. By contrast, the Kremlin's bombast does nothing to affirm their ability to even come close to their own stated outcomes and, in fact, exposes their growing vulnerability. JL

Alex Stezhensky reports in New Voice of Ukraine:

In April, 35,203 Russian troops were killed or seriously wounded. In March, the figure was 35,351; in December, 34,544.” In October, the Russian army lost 67 troops per 1 square kilometer of advance; in January, 165; in February, 244; in March, 254; and in April, 179. The dashboards show a clear pattern: The more Russian forces are hit at operational depth, the fewer assault operations take place at the front. “Our strategic goal is to inflict 200 casualties on the enemy for every square kilometer of advance.” Russian forces' heavy losses means they lack the manpower needed to capture major regional centers such as Sumy or Kharkiv.

"Significant" Russian Donetsk Drone Training, Logistics Center Destroyed, 65 killed

Ukraine's Unmanned Systems Forces in coordination with military intelligence, destroyed Russia's primary drone command center in occupied Donetsk, which included training facilities, ammunition storage, repair shops and sleeping quarters. 65 Russians were killed in addition to the damage done to the facility. JL

The Kyiv Post reports:

Ukraine's Unmanned Systems Forces struck a Russian drone training and production facility used for drone pilot command and accomodation, munitions manufacturing and combat payload assemblage. The coordinated deep strike operation killed Russian personnel while destroying production and repair workshops, along with four Tiger armored vehicles undergoing repairs. Ammunition stocks and drone components were also eliminated. The lieutenant colonel head of the training facility was killed in the attack. Personnel losses were estimated at 65. Underground ammunition storage intensified the destruction.

6 Repeat Russian Assault Attempts Through Sumy Gas Pipeline Annihilated

A little over a year ago, the Russians had a short-lived success infiltrating a unit behind Ukrainian positions through a disused gas pipeline before the infiltrators were discovered and eliminated. 

Despite the fact that Ukrainian forces have been acutely aware of that threat ever since, Russian commanders keep trying it, either believing there is no such thing as the element of surprise or that they just don't have any other options. The latest attempts were again in Sumy oblast where the Russians tried six times within one month to use the same tactic - through the same pipeline. Again (and again and again...) the Russians were spotted and wiped out. And people wonder why Russia isn't winning...JL

RFU News reports:

At Sumy, Russia desperately needed an innovative tactic to break through Ukrainian defenses. Repeated frontal assaults caused severe manpower losses and stalled advances, forcing Russian commanders to search for an infiltration route. They attempted to use the 17 kilometer Urengoy–Pomary–Uzhgorod gas pipeline. As a result of Ukrainian spotting and crossfire with drones, the first Russian forces' attempt was eliminated. The Russians attempted variations of the same pipeline infiltration tactic five times over the course of a single month, with each assault launched less than a week after the previous one. The element of surprise had disappeared as Ukrainians only had to monitor pipeline exits. Despite the losses, the Russians repeatedly sent wave after wave, disregarding the Ukrainians fully adapting to their tactic.

Ukraine Is Now Conducting More Offensive Operations Than Russia

Evidence is accumulating that Ukrainian forces have seized the initiative in the war against the Russian invasion. For the first time in three years, the Ukrainians have initiated more offensive operations across the length of the front than have the Russians. 

This suggests both an increase in Ukrainian offensive capabilities and a degradation of Russian resources driven by effective Ukrainian targeting of the Kremlin's military deep inside Russia as well as closer to, but behind, the front as Ukraine's kill zone has expanded, hindering the Russians' ability to launch any operations beyond trying to stay alive. JL

Anzhelika Kalchenko reports in Militarnyi:

The number of offensive operations carried out by Ukrainian Forces currently exceeds that of Russian troops. This is the outcome of systematic efforts to inflict casualties on enemy personnel and reduce their offensive capabilities. Ukrainian units are increasingly imposing their own pace of operations on the enemy. This means that Ukrainian forces are seizing the initiative at the tactical level, forcing Russian troops to react to Ukrainian actions. This shift in the balance of power has been made possible by a combination of precision strikes, the depletion of enemy reserves, and constant pressure on its forward units. This is significant against the backdrop of prolonged Russian offensive operations, where the pace of attacks has been considered one of the enemy’s key advantages.