Ukraine Expands Kupiansk Kill Zone To 20 Km As Russians Achieve "Zero Goals'

It's been a tough summer for Russian troops in the Kupiansk area (pictured right).

Ukrainian drone operators have expanded the Kupiansk front kill zone to 20 kilometers as the brigades defending that sector demonstrate that Russian forces have achieved none of their objectives for the summer offensive there. JL

Elza Diachenko reports in Gwara Media:

Ukrainian drone operators expanded the kill zone to 20 kilometers (12 miles) deep into the Russian-occupied territories on Kupiansk axis in Kharkiv oblast. The kill zone previously extended 15 kilometers (9.3 miles) from the zero line, but it can reach 25 kilometers (15.5 miles). Expanding the kill zone is the main priority as Russian troops achieved zero objectives in their summer campaign on the Kupiansk axis. Ukrainian brigades (including the 4th Heavy Mechanized and 77th Airmobile) have actively targeted Russian supply lines, destroying logistics vehicles, ground drones, and equipment storages. 

16,000 Foreign Volunteers Fight For Ukraine. 40% Are South American

There are currently about 16,000 foreign volunteers serving in the Ukrainian military. Of those, almost 40% come from Latin America, and a significant percentage of the Latin Americans come from Colombia.

The reason for that is that when Colombia ended its civil war, it left thousands of trained fighters without gainful employment. Many of them have been attracted to the fighting in Ukraine by the salaries, which are better than those they can get in their own country and by the opportunity to use the skills they used in the military (and, to some extend, in insurgent forces) in Colombia. JL

Vladyslav Khomenko reports in Militarnyi, Gulliver Cragg and Catalina Gomez report in France24:

Around 16,000 foreign volunteers are currently serving in the Ukrainian Defense Forces. The volunteers come from 72 countries, with nearly 40% of them originating from Latin American nations. Colombians, in particular, are attracted by the Ukrainian military's high salaries. But also, in many cases, by a sense of adventure and quest for purpose in life. Colombia's 2016 peace settlement has left many soldiers there feeling underused as well as underpaid. Many have also gone to fight in other wars – in Yemen or Sudan, for example – but Ukraine is the first place where they are recruited officially into the host country's armed forces

Brutal Ukrainian Mykolaivka Defense Has Disrupted Russia's Sloviansk Attack Plans

The Kremlin has wanted to take Ukraine's Fortress Belt for over four years - and this summer was supposed to be the beginning of their most serious effort. But before they get into position to do so, they have to remove some other challenging obstacles, not the least of which is the Ukrainian 81st Airmobile Brigade defending Mykolaivka to the east. 

Suffice it to say that analysts are now casting doubt on the Russians' ability to even start the Sloviansk offensive this year - and possibly even next - due to the stout, ferocious defense of Mykolaivka, which shows no signs of letting up anytime soon. JL

Euromaidan Press reports:

Expect a long, hard fight in and around the ruins of Mykolaivka, the eastern gateway to Sloviansk. "It is highly unlikely that the battle for Sloviansk will begin this year, not least because the fighting in Mykolaivka is likely to be prolonged." Russian assault groups are attacking the apartment blocks along the town's eastern edge. Mykolaivka sits 8 km east of Sloviansk, one of just two big free cities in Donetsk Oblast, and taking it is the precondition for any Russian siege of the city. Russia has largely exhausted its offensive options and Mykolaivka "will come at a very high cost, especially given the extensive fortifications the Ukrainians have built in the area over recent months."

SpaceX Shares Drop 20% Below IPO, Short Interest Rises, As AI Spend Soars

SpaceX stock ended the first day of its insider share lockup period at $111.17, down 20% from the IPO price of $135 and well below its June peak of $225.64. More ominously, short selling bears pushed short interest to 36% of the float, or shares outstanding, implying that Wall Street believes the stock is overvalued by retail investor fanboys and girls who are obsessed by their belief in Elon Musk. 

Many retail investors think this is a buying opportunity, but professional investors do not share their optimism, sensing that SpaceX is incapable of meeting its financial obligations due to massive investments in data centers and other AI-related expenses. While not a total vote of no confidence in the company and its leader, this is a serious expression of skepticism in its prospects. JL

Nicolas Owens reports in Morningstar, Cris Tolomia reports in Quartz:

SpaceX stock touched a new low on Thursday as up to 911.5 million shares held by insiders became eligible for sale for the first time since the company went public in June. The stock dipped to $105.11 in early trading before bouncing back to $111.17. As of Wednesday's close, SpaceX shares had shed more than half their value from the June 16 peak of $225.64 and were about 20% below the $135 IPO price. Short sellers increased bets against the stock ahead of the unlock. Bearish positioning had pushed short interest to 36% of float by Wednesday's close. Those short sellers are sitting on paper profits exceeding $9 billion as a result of the share-price retreat. With its marked volatility since the IPO, investors are still factoring more optimistic scenarios for Starship reusability and the commercial advantage of orbital datacenters than are most probable at this point. Said Morningstar, "We see SpaceX’s stock as overvalued: traded at twice our fair value estimate"

Russia's Radar Plane Flight Patterns Over Volga Reflect Strategic Depth Loss

The Russian Air Force is flying its four remaining long range radar detection planes (the other four were destroyed by Ukraine). They are similar to US AWACS, used both identify potential targets and threats. 

But the Russian planes are not being flown near the frontline in Ukraine. Their flight patterns indicate that their mission is to try to help protect Russia's industrial heartland, almost 2,000 kilometers from the front and an area once considered so far from the reach of potential invaders that in 1941, the Soviets moved 1,500 factories to the region. That is the scale of the lost strategic depth that Ukraine has imposed on Russia. JL

Giorgio Provinciali reports:

In July, the Russians went back to flying A-50U long-range radar detection aircraft on a regular basis. The orbits over Ulyanovsk, Samara, Bashkortostan, Perm, Orenburg, and Chelyabinsk reveal a mission to protect Russia’s heartland well beyond the Ukrainian frontline. It marks a yardstick for the loss of Russia's strategic depth. In October 1941 Samara was designated the reserve capital, and 1,500 factories were evacuated there, beyond the Volga, because distance equaled sanctuary. Today an A-50U orbits over Samara mark that sanctuary’s disappearance. Industries across the Volga–Urals belt can no longer be considered safe by virtue of distance.

Kyiv Tech Superiority Due To "Scouts" Scanning Globe For Best New Drones

Not only is the Ukrainian Defense Ministry constantly searching for new technology, but many corps and brigades also have their own 'tech scouts,' drone operators who also have the knowledge and experience to evaluate new weapons and systems that may give them a battlefield advantage. 

Ukraine's mid-range drones, which have been wreaking havoc on Russian logistics and reinforcements, were discovered by such scouting. JL 

David Kirichenko reports in the Center for European Policy Analysis:

Any brigade with a premier drone unit also has tech scouts, while Ukraine’s defense intelligence agency (HUR) also has a group, including foreigners, scouting technologies abroad. Ukrainian forces are also constantly being asked by Western companies to test their equipment in combat. "Operators know whether a drone solves a real problem, introduces new risks, or whether it needs further development."  Technology scouts also do more than identify promising systems. They test equipment, provide feedback to commanders, and help integrate technology into frontline units. A good example of the influence of technology scouts is mid-range drones, which have led the effort against Russian logistics. Once the Azov Brigade procured US-designed Hornet drones and became the first unit to link them to Starlink, their range quickly grew, catching Russia off guard. 

Revealing Parity, Ukraine, Russian Post Similar Gains For July

Ukraine made more gains than Russia in most of April, May and June. In July, the two sides achieved parity, with similar levels of territorial gains, but in different sectors of the front. 

The key revelation is that Russia, despite its advantages, cannot do more than the Ukrainians, let alone muster the forces to make a breakthrough anywhere along the line of battle. JL

The New Voice of Ukraine reports:

In recent weeks, Ukrainian and Russian forces have been showing similar battlefield gains across different segments of the frontline. June statistics on occupied and recaptured territory showed an advantage for Ukrainian forces, who stopped active Russian advances. Russian forces continued to infiltrate forward and create false visual evidence that they had seized or secured territory. "Right now, on advances, we have parity." The key point is that the Russians can no longer launch large, massed advances to seize territory the way it did before — gains of 500, 300, 200 or even 100 square kilometers.