Widespread reports have confirmed that Ukraine's surprisingly successful counteroffensive in the country's south has been significantly enabled by Elon Musk's decision to deny Starlink access to Russian military use, most of which is non-paying or stolen. The big question is not about the impact of that decision, but why it was made by a quixotic tech businessman who had previously been sympathetic to Russia and even intervened earlier in the war in its behalf.
While no concrete reasoning has been provided, it appears that Russian use of Starlink terminals to guide aerial drones to attack Ukrainian President Zelensky's office crossed some sort of red line for Musk. He may also have been motivated by the rampant illegal use of his product and service, which was definitely not good for business as paying customers complained - or decided to hack it themselves. As a result, a 'white list' of approved, paying customers has been created by the company. This benefits Ukraine - and has severely degraded Russian command and control since virtually none of their terminals, acquired mostly on the gray or black market, are approved or paid. But the larger question for everyone involved is, do you really want your defense to be dependent on one guy's whims? JL
Simon Shuster reports in The Atlantic:
Ukraine and its allies first realized the depth of their dependence on Starlink in the fall of 2022, when Musk used the system to stop a Ukrainian plan to sink Russian warships stationed in Crimea. Late last month, a Russian attack drone slipped through Ukraine’s air-defense systems and glided into Kyiv’s government district, heading in the direction of President Volodymyr Zelensky’s office. It crashed, injuring no one. (But) the incident set in motion events that would allow Ukraine to seize momentum at the front with the help of an unlikely ally: Elon Musk. This time, Musk assisted Ukraine in the war. But dependence on his good graces still worries the Europeans. “We need to be independent from Musk. That is a strategic necessity.”