Slew Of Ukrainian Frontline Successes Due To Weapons, Tactics, Strategy

For the first time in several years, Ukraine has anticipated and then thwarted Russia's winter offensive plans. Not only have the Ukrainians stopped the Russians and advanced themselves, they have done so while reducing their own casualties even as they increase those inflicted on the Kremlin troops.

What is particularly interesting about the Ukrainian successes is that they are based on a systematic evaluation of lessons learned and what works then translated into organizational and tactical plans. Their deployment of drone technology, both land and aerial, reflects this analytical approach to reducing their vulnerabilities while enhancing their advantages. JL

Kostiantyn Khudov and David Stern report in the Washington Post:

Ukrainian special forces have halted a Russian advance in the Zaporizhzhia region, the latest military success in recent weeks. Kyiv’s troops have recaptured 200 square miles since the beginning of the year, while Moscow is losing up to 35,000 soldiers a month to deaths and injuries. Ukrainian forces are clawing back territory. “With precise drone and artillery strikes, military intelligence operatives systematically limit the capabilities of the Russians — due to a lack of supplies, the occupiers are increasingly abandoning assaults.”

Kyiv's 2026 Research Priorities Reveal How Tech Is Driving War's Future

Ukraine's research priorities for this year reflect the next stage of the technological revolution, exemplified by drone dominance. 

Faster scaling of new technologies, organizational design changes necessitated by the need to deploy more technology, including drones, faster and deeper, and the implementation of AI to assist with targeting, Russian drone and missile interception all reflect the realities of the battlefield. What is interesting, especially to business executives, is that the need for new technology has been largely supplanted by the demand for better institutional adaptation and scaling in order to optimize the impact of these victory-driving innovations. JL

Mick Ryan reports in Futura Doctrina:

The Ukrainian Armed Forces released its research priorities for the coming year. The main change from 2025 is the transition from chaotic developments to a holistic state system…Last year, the Armed Forces of Ukraine completed the formation of a holistic system that allows them to respond instantly to the challenges of war. The key principle is feedback. The focus is on four strategic areas: improvement of innovation management, scaling, AI implementation, integration of unmanned systems into all branches of the service. 

Ukraine Has Liberated Dnipropetrovsk Oblast, Advances In Kupiansk, Zaporizhzhia

Ukrainian forces' advance in the southern theater of war continues unabated. Dnipropetrovsk has been almost completely liberated of Russian occupying units, Kupiansk is being cleared as new Ukrainian assaults take additional ground and in Zaporizhzhia, the Russian winter offensive has not only been stopped with heavy casualties, but Ukrainian troops are advancing there as well. 

The effects of the Russians' offensive and defensive failures have cascaded as one affects the other. The Kremlin's plans for this year have been disrupted, if not wholly eliminated, and reflect a broader war-wide operational failing. JL

Benjamin Murdoch and Maria Tril report in Euromaidan Press:

Ukrainian forces have liberated nearly all Russian-occupied areas of Dnipropetrovsk Oblast. Ukrainian troops had pushed Russian forces back during ongoing operations on the Oleksandrivsk axis near the border of Dnipropetrovsk and Zaporizhzhia oblasts, where Russian troops had attempted to push earlier. Ukrainian troops have already recaptured more than 400 square kilometers. Additional areas have undergone follow-up sweeps to eliminate small groups of Russian infiltrators. In the Kupiansk area, Ukrainians advanced east of the city, where Russian forces were shelling a newly occupied Ukrainian position - itself an indicator of the advance - as Ukrainian forces counterattacked within Kupiansk itself. The stalled southern drive reflects a broader Russian operational failure, as Ukrainian counterattacks disrupted Russian forces. Their inability to hold newly captured ground has deprived the Russians of the starting offensive positions from which they intended to launch a summer offensive. The effects are cascading across the theater.

OpenAI's Robotics Hardware Chief Quits Over Pentagon Deal

The resignation of a senior executive from OpenAI who explicitly gave it agreement with the Pentagon as the reason for her departure will have some operational implications for the company. But the larger impact is likely to be reputational and symbolic. 

That someone of her caliber is willing to walk over a matter of principle could be significant in tech, where such behavior tends to be copied and signals that disputes about the future of AI, which have so far been dominated by monopolists focused on market dominance have held sway. Ms. Kalinowski's action likely signals that there is considerable disagreement within the ranks of AI execs about its appropriate uses and these could affect how it is rolled out, as well as how the desperately needed growth in it finances evolves. JL

Anthony Ha reports in Tech Crunch:

Caitlin Kalinowski announced today that in response to OpenAI’s controversial agreement with the Department of Defense, she’s resigned from her role leading the company’s hardware team. Kalinowski, who previously led the team building augmented reality glasses at Meta, joined OpenAI in November 2024. In her announcement, she emphasized that the decision was “about principle, not people. AI has as an important role in national security. But surveillance of Americans without judicial oversight and lethal autonomy without human authorization are lines that deserved more deliberation than they got.” The controversy appears to have damaged OpenAI’s reputation among consumers

Interceptor Drones, Ukrainian Soldiers Sent To Protect US Bases In Jordan

Within a day of requested help being received, Ukrainian interceptor drones and teams to help use them as well as train US troops had been sent to Jordan to protect US bases there. 

The White House has refused to answer questions about the request for Ukrainian assistance, most likely because they consider it embarrassing to have to have made the request, which undermines Pentagon claims of dominance in its Iran attack. Ukraine is hoping this support will result in further support from the US administration, though given past exchanges, it would not be a surprise if the White House claimed it was 'owed' this support in return for past US aid given to Ukraine. But with widespread reports of Russia providing targeting support for Iranian drones and missiles, Ukraine's assistance to the US is a prudent move. JL

Iryna Balachuk reports in Ukraine Pravda:

Ukraine has sent interceptor drones and a team of drone specialists to help protect US military bases in Jordan. No other countries have more experience in countering Iranian drones than Ukraine. Ukrainian President Zelenskyy said the US had requested assistance on 5 March. The Ukrainian team left the following day. "We reacted immediately. I said, yes, of course, we will send our experts." The White House has not responded to questions about whether the US had formally asked Ukraine for help.

Ukraine's 2026 Gains Support Tech-Heavy, Human-Light Strategy

As Ukrainian forces continue to achieve unexpected territorial gains while significantly increasing Russian casualties, they are feeling vindicated by their strategy of investing more in technology, especially drones, in order to preserve the lives of their soldiers. 

Given the disparity between Ukraine's population versus Russia's, this was a pragmatic decision which has now yielded long term benefits for the country by obviating the need to recruit more of their young and middle aged who are needed for its economic stability and future growth. They are, meanwhile, inflicting increasingly unsustainable casualties on the Russians at a time when even that large nation is beginning to feel the loss of so many working age men. JL

Phillips O'Brien reports in his substack and Kateryna Denisova reports in the Kyiv Independent:

In historical terms, Russian advances, which have been hailed by some in the press as an inexorable march to victory and in the analytical community as a sign that Ukraine was on the verge of collapse, have been historically tiny and achieved at great cost. Ukraine's military forces have stopped Russia's advance toward the city of Zaporizhzhia as part of a three-month operation in the country's south while Ukraine actually liberated more land than the Russians seized. (And they did so) while starting to feel vindicated in their strategy of reducing their soldiers on the front line while using machines (mostly drones) to inflict what they (believe) will be unsustainable casualties on Russian forces.

"All the Cards?" Why Russia Has Achieved So Little In Ukraine

As spring begins to sprout in Ukraine after a long, difficult winter, Ukrainian forces are on the march. Yes, you read that right. Ukrainian forces, not Russian, are advancing in the country's southern battle zone as its troops have effectively thwarted Russian advances in Pokrovsk and the Kremlin finds itself short of money and new troops. The usual doom-laden warnings of imminent Ukrainian collapse and 'inevitable' Russian victory are strangely absent from the usual dismissive sources. Even the chronically Ukraine-skeptical New York Times is running op-ed pieces, like the one below, critical of Putin's chances!

And despite Putin's maximalist demands for Kyiv's surrender - seconded by his admirers in the White House - he can have no confidence, four years on, that his operationally incompetent army, air force and navy are capable of delivering even modest gains, let alone his downwardly revised military and political objectives. The reality is that Ukraine's military has gotten smarter and stronger, while the Russians continue to flounder, having achieved little at great cost in men and materiel. And that is unlikely to change, even with temporarily rising oil prices, thanks to Russia's weak economy, technological deficiencies and organizational confusion and corruption. Russian dreams of victory have evaporated thanks to Putin's poor decision-making and inadequate strategic capabilities. JL

Lawrence Freedman comments in the New York Times:

A Russian victory in Ukraine remains elusive. Its territorial gains are modest, it controls no regional capitals, is unable to exploit any breakthroughs. These meager results have cost of 1.2 million Russian casualties. If Russia has 'all the cards,' why has it achieved so little? Its progress been frustrated by its own operational weaknesses as well as a much smaller army’s resilience and innovative tactics. Neither Putin’s military objectives nor his political ones have been met. Ukraine has the strongest, largest, most battle-hardened army in Europe. NATO has expanded to include Sweden and Finland, as Germany is again a military power. While Russia has been bogged down in Ukraine, it has become dependent on China and unable to help its Syrian, Venezuelan, Cuban and Iranian clients. However hard Russia tries, it cannot subjugate Ukraine.