100s of Ukrainian Drones Hit Moscow On Final Day of Russian Election

Ukraine delivered a message to Moscow this past weekend. And it was a simple one: as long as the Kremlin continues to target Ukrainian civilians and infrastructure, Ukraine will do the same to Russia. And there does not appear to be anything Russia can do right now to prevent it. 

The practical impact is that an already difficult domestic oil and gas market is going to get more challenging, while the unspoken message was that Russians are no longer safe and Ukraine has no intention of letting up. JL

Valerie Hopkins and Andrew Kramer report in the New York Times:

Moscow and its surrounding region came under attack by hundreds of drones on the final day of parliamentary, regional and local elections across Russia. The bombardment included the first use of a newly developed Ukrainian ballistic missile to strike inside Russia which supposedly did not have the range to reach Moscow. The Moscow oil refinery in Kapotnya, which had been taken out of commission by attacks in June, when it was estimated that repairs would last for six months was again damaged. The country is already facing widespread fuel shortages because of Ukraine’s attacks on refineries. While fuel lines have become commonplace in the last few months, there were few on Saturday because not many fuel stations had any gas to sell. When they did, it was low-quality gas or diesel. 2,022 drones had flown toward the Moscow region over the preceding seven days.

Operation Vivaldi Signals A New Phase of War Favoring Ukraine

Ukraine's success in the Lyman sector may signal a new phase of the war in which an innovative combined arms doctrine emphasizing close coordination between drone units and infantry redefines what is possible.

Prior to this, in the first phase, traditional armor and infantry led assaults and counters dominated the fighting. And while Ukraine shocked the world with its ability to defeat the Kremlin invasion plan, Russia's advantage in men and materiel led to phase 2, which inaugurated the drone war that made armor and infantry assaults virtually suicidal. That phase continued until earlier this year, when Ukraine's new drone-infantry maneuver operations decimated mid range logistics, command and reinforcements, then allowing infantry mounted on armored vehicles to clear up Russian infiltrators. The question now is whether Russia has the ability - and the will - to adapt. JL

Mick Ryan reports in Futura Doctrina:

The  official disclosure of an ongoing Corps-level Ukrainian counteroffensive in eastern Ukraine represents the second significant Ukrainian counteroffensive this year (the first was in the south) and indicates Ukraine has developed new offensive techniques impacting ground combat. Russian military analysts described the situation near Lyman as worse for Russian forces than the earlier rout at Kupiansk, interesting given that battle has been treated as a low point for Russian infiltration tactics. Mid-range strike operations (out to 120 km) isolated the battlefield (using artillery, glide bombs, drones and EW), destroying Russian drone operations and interdicting logistics. Ukraine new offensive manoeuvre techniques which neutralise Russian infiltration tactics while suppressing drone operations that provide Russian situational awareness and use of these offensive operations to liberate territory and destroy Russian forces at the same time signal a new phase of the war.

During Ukraine's Lyman Advance, Russians Confused By Blocked Intel

Russian commanders have been unable to gain a clear picture of the fighting in the Lyman sector for two reasons. The first is that Ukraine maintained very strict operational security protocols so that their actions and intentions have never been clear until after the fact. That made it harder for the Russians to plan and respond. 

The second reason is that Russian officers on the ground, fearing criticism and possible retribution from the Kremlin, purposely withheld information from their superiors which would have exposed the scale of the Ukrainian advance. This also led to misallocations of resources under orders from a senior command which had no idea of the threat. That the Ukrainians could get away with this under a supposedly transparent drone dominated battlefield is a significant development. JL

Francis Farrell reports in the Kyiv Independent:

Ukraine's military leadership, including the 3rd Corps itself, has maintained a strict informational blackout surrounding the Operation Vivaldi Lyman counterattacks for operational security reasons. If Russian commanders lacked a clear picture of Ukraine's progress, Moscow is less likely to allocate the appropriate resources and make tactical changes in response. The Russian command's possible detachment from reality on the ground could foster favorable conditions for the offensive to continue, rather than culminate. Russian attacks near Lyman have formed  the northern pincer of the Russian Donetsk Oblast offensive, and now these gains have been not only stopped but reversed.

Russia's Feared Rubikon Drone Unit Forced Out of Lyman Front By Ukraine Strikes

In what may be one of the most significant but underreported Ukrainian successes of the war, Ukraine's 3rd Corps, in its Lyman sector Operation Vivaldi, have so decimated Russia's feared Rubikon drone unit, that it was forced to withdraw from the front for 'refitting.'

Rubikon has been, until now, Russia's most effective drone unit. Wherever it deployed, it savaged Ukrainian infantry, armor and drone units, perhaps most notably at Kursk and Pokrovsk. That Ukraine figured out how to strike Rubikon's command centers, ammunition storage and launch facilities while inflicting heavy casualties on its trained personnel is a major victory in and of itself. That it did so in concert with the counteroffensive in Lyman makes that even more momentous. JL

Oleksandr Shumilin reports in Ukraine Pravda and Anna's Brief reports:

In the course of the 3rd Corps' Operation Vivaldi in northern Donetsk, it has inflicted losses on Russia's elite Rubicon drone unit that have forced it to withdraw it from the Lyman-Borova front. Rubicon is the centerpiece of Russia’s drone warfare. Hundreds of personnel. Specialists in cutting supply lines, hunting Ukrainian drone operators, intercepting reconnaissance. The 3rd Corps disabled Rubicon's command-and-control, destroying its logistics, ammunition depots, drone launch sites and killing experienced drone operators. The Russians were no longer able to replenish the unit with equipment and trained personnel, so abandoned its positions, leaving equipment behind. To preserve what remained of the unit, the Russian command has redeployed Rubicon. When they showed up, they changed the game. (So), if you can destroy the people who are destroying your drones, you’ve shifted the balance.

AI Training Called "Largest Theft In Human History" By Microsoft Exec In Court

You might prefer one of the Microsoft exec's other quotes during a deposition in a lawsuit about whether AI companies taking data and other content for AI training without permission or payment is 'fair use' or stealing: it is "an astonishing theft of unprecedented proportions."

Either way, the word 'theft' is central to the argument that AI companies are taking something that is not theirs and building a trillion dollar business model from it. That valuation depends, in large measure, on the fact that the AI business has almost zero cost of goods sold because the content on which their products and services are built has been stolen. That this quote comes from tech execs underscores the economic and ethical questions that have arisen inside the industry, but that the companies have attempted to shield from public view. Should they actually be forced to pay for the intellectual property they are using for free, it would significantly reduce their margins and further undermine the content and profit grab which has, so far, powered AI and its financial projections. JL

Scott Nover and Gerrit De Vynck report in the Washington Post:

A Microsoft executive called the training of AI models the “largest theft of labor in human history,” according to a legal brief. That same executive called it “an astonishing theft of unprecedented proportions.” The material unearthed in discovery shows how tech titans have built a business model worth billions off the backs of news organizations, whose work has been fed into AI tools in vast quantities to “train” them, often without permission. Using this material, the AI giants have produced a behemoth that conveys information, without properly crediting — or paying for — the original work. Novelists, musicians and other creative professionals argue the companies stole their work and used it to build tools that can be used to replace them. For the plaintiffs, Microsoft’s admission amounts to evidence that Microsoft and OpenAI knew they were stealing journalism without permission or payment.

Success On "Forgotten" Ukrainian Southern Front Has Aided Recent Donbas Gains

The southern Ukrainian battlefields in Zaporizhzhia, Kherson and Crimea have recently been treated as secondary sectors, with the Russians having made Donbas its primary focus. 

But Ukrainian successes in the south have undermined the Kremlin's designs on taking the Fortress Belt and all of Donbas. And Ukraine's advances in the south have also weakened Russia's hold on Crimea, by making it a difficult place to live, let alone stand as a logistics center for the war to the north. Those strategic victories have, in fact, made it much harder for the Kremlin to pursue its war by denying Russia any material benefits in those sectors. JL

The World Strategist reports:

The southern front is not neglected because it is unimportant. It is complex, multi-dimensional and hard to boil down into simple headlines. No dramatic sieges of cities, no sweeping attacks by armored columns, no one decisive battle. It is a grinding patient campaign to cut off Russia’s supply lines, isolate its forces and make its position in the south untenable.  That campaign is paying off. Ukraine has taken back hundreds of square kilometers of territory. It has stopped Russian advances toward Zaporizhzhia City. It has severed Russian supply lines across the Dnipro. It has taken out 183 vessels from Russia’s shadow fleet. It has turned Crimea into a “island” with no fuel, no summer camps, and patchy electricity. And it has forced Russia to withdraw from the Kinburn Spit, the westernmost foothold of its occupation.

Ukrainians Proving More Effective At Moving the War Underground

Another element of Ukraine's recent success on the ground has been its ability to hit Russian command and control, as well as logistics centers, which has decapitated their decision-making it more difficult for them to respond to Ukrainian surprise counteroffensives. 

And as part of their preparation for the evolution of warfare, Ukraine has been more effective at moving its operations underground so that they can not be identified or targeted. This has also contributed to Kyiv's focus on reducing casualties. JL

Kateryna Zakharchenko reports in the Kyiv Post:

The battlefield has moved underground, where Ukrainian troops are proving more effective than Russian forces. Technologies and battlefield tactics that were relevant two years ago are now outdated, while new developments can alter combat operations every two or three months. Constant adaptation is also reshaping Ukraine’s air-defense requirements, particularly as Russia develops faster jet-powered attack drones. Despite the growing focus on aerial attacks and military technology, Ukrainian officers warned against shifting attention away from infantry and the front line. “The soldier remains the most important. "