Russian Military Recruitment Falls By 33% Compared To 2025

As if the spreading knowledge within Russia about the dangers of service in Ukraine were not disincentive enough, the recent consensus that the Russian military in Ukraine is actually losing the war has further depressed Kremlin recruitment levels. 

Estimates are that new recruit numbers have fallen by over a third compared to last year. Returning soldiers report that many units are operating at 30%-40% of their authorized strength, further contributing to Russia's decline in battlefield performance. JL

The Kyiv Post reports:

The number of Russians signing military contracts has declined sharply nationwide despite increased financial incentives. Recruitment in Moscow fell one-third this spring compared to the same period in 2025, reflecting a broader nationwide decline in new contract enlistments. The decline is not limited to the Russian capital and has been observed in multiple regions. Military personnel described manpower shortages and difficulties replacing battlefield losses. One serviceman claimed some units were operating at only 30% to 40% of their authorized strength, while others reported that newly recruited soldiers often lacked training and combat experience.

Due To Drone Strikes, Officials In Occupied Crimea Declare State of Emergency

Life for Russians in occupied Crimea has become increasingly untenable. Today's state of emergency further underscores the difficulty of supporting the civilian population, as well as Russian military installations. 

This threatens what is arguably Putin's only accomplishment since his first, limited attack on Ukraine in 2014 and undermines his claims to any military or economic rationale for continuing the full scale war. Should Crimea fall to Ukraine, largely through a drone-driven siege, it would threaten Putin's rule of Russia. JL

Ivan Nechepurenko and Natalia Vasilyeva report in the New York Times:

The authorities in Crimea declared a state of emergency on Friday after weeks of intense air attacks by Ukraine, including a wave of drone strikes overnight that appears to have been one of the largest since the war began. Gas stations in Crimea have run out of fuel. Children have been evacuated. Power outages have crippled the territory, disrupting water supplies that rely on electric pumps. The assaults have underscored how Putin’s ability to isolate Russian society from the impacts of the war is sharply eroding.

US State Dept Publicly Says "Ukraine Is Winning the War" Against Russia

Not that this is a definitive assessment, coming, as it does, from an administration that firmly believes everyone is entitled to their own facts, but it certainly betrays a shift in perceptions - and in the odds. 

The US President has a history of wanting to take credit for success and to distance himself - or blame others - for failure. This proclivity is so well known that reports indicate the Russian military is concerned this White House may reverse course and start sending weapons and ammunition to Ukraine so that the US President can claim a resulting victory as his own. The larger point is that the global consensus about momentum as well as the facts on the ground, sea and in the air has now shifted to Ukraine. JL

Decimus reports in Daily Kos and the Institute for the Study of War reports:

President Trump and US Deputy Secretary of State Jeremy Levin stated June 25 that Ukraine currently has the battlefield advantage, saying "Ukraine is winning the war." Ukraine's long- and medium-range strike campaigns against Russian military and energy infrastructure in occupied Ukraine and Russia along with Ukrainian advances in Winter and Spring 2026 are dismantling the Russian false narrative portraying Russian victory as inevitable. Russia has accused the US of failing to deliver on “understandings” reached between President Putin and President Trump at their Alaska summit last August - though they did not provide specifics - signaling growing frustration in Moscow. Now, “after getting to fully understand the Ukraine/Russia Military and Economic situation,” Trump said he believes Ukraine – backed by the EU and NATO – can win back all its territory.

AI, Tech Stocks Drop For 4th Day Due To OpenAI IPO Halt, Inflation, Data Centers

As tech stocks sell off for the fourth day in a row it seems the markets are engaged in a titanic struggle between two opposing belief systems. On one side are those who still think 'this time is different,' meaning AI is going to be the most extraordinarily stupendifferous economic force in human and possibly universal history. 

They are now - some say, finally - coming up against those who are beginning to question whether the underlying assumptions about AI's ability to deliver results can ever be realized, especially given the inflationary and operational impact of expenditures on data centers and the rest of the proposed AI build-out. One could think of it as the hype caucus versus the sanity caucus. Jeff Bezos wondering aloud in a public interview why the US would possibly worry about human water needs versus AI's demand is evidence of the former. OpenAI suddenly suggesting it may postpone its IPO because a trillion dollar valuation is no longer achievable is evidence of the latter. That AI is inflationary, at least in the short term, is no longer in question. It is evidence of an historical pattern (NO! AI is like other eras?!) in which new technologies place higher demand on scarce resources. That may change - over time - but the looming question is whether the literally unheard-of demands for capital and materials can be borne by the companies assuming them, let alone the broader global economy. JL

Lee Shan reports in CNBC and Justin Lahart reports in the Wall Street Journal:

Tech stocks sold off (again today) amid mounting concerns over the rising cost of AI infrastructure. investor enthusiasm may also be capped by reports that OpenAI could delay its initial public offering until next year as it struggles to secure demand at a $1 trillion valuation as America’s massive AI build-out is beginning to push up prices on everything from smartphones to electricity. With so much demand, prices are rising for many of the things that go into the AI build-out. And because those things are used for more than AI, price increases are spilling over into the broader economy.  Memory and storage chips are used in a broad array of consumer-electronics products that includes everything from videogame consoles to cars. “In the first phase of any major tech revolution, you have a strain on limited resources, and that puts upward pressure on prices.”

Russian Drone Attacks Decline After Ukraine Cruise Missile Hits Factory

The number of Russian Shahed drones launched against Ukrainian targets has declined for two months in a row. This is due to a attack on a factory that makes crucial Shahed components, which inflicted significant damage on the facility. 

The attack was not by Ukrainian drones, but by Ukraine's own domestically manufactured cruise missiles. If this trend holds for yet another month, it may signal another important turning point in the degradation of Russia's war-making capabilities. JL

David Axe reports in Trench Art:

Between Between June 9 and 10, Ukrainian forces launched five Fire Point FP-5 Flamingo cruise missiles at the VNIIR-Progress electronics plant in Cheboksary, in western Russia 550 miles from the front line in Ukraine. Two of the six-ton, $500,000 missiles struck the plant with their 2,500-pound warheads, punching right through anti-drone protections and inflicting major blast and fire damage that was apparent in photos and videos from the following days. In May, the Russians launched more than 8,000 Shaheds. And in both March and April they launched 6,500. One month doesn’t make a trend. But two just might. If Shahed launches are down in July, too, we may be able to look back at June as a turning point.

Well Paid Foreign Volunteers Expected To Comprise 50% of Ukraine Infantry

With dramatically increased pay and greater flexibility about choosing with which unit they wish to serve - part of a broader set of reforms for military service - Ukraine expects that as many as 50% of front line troops will eventually be foreign volunteers. 

Unlike the Russians who have tricked and bullied unsuspecting foreign workers lured to Russia by promise of jobs that didnt exist and then pressed into service, Ukraine is openly recruiting volunteers with military experience from other countries. South Americans have been particularly eager to fill the ranks, but Europeans, Asians and even some Americans have joined as well. JL

Alona Mazurenko reports in Ukraine Pravda:

The Ukrainian Defence Ministry aims to have up to 50% of assault and infantry positions in the Ukrainian Armed Forces filled by foreign nationals. "There are going to be dozens of companies that will bring in thousands of people every month to serve in Ukraine – because salaries on the front line are becoming competitive, the companies will earn UAH 300,000 (around US$6,600) per foreign recruit. Secondly, a market is emerging for companies that will bring people in transparently, with no corruption and no schemes. We've introduced a new services procurement procedure in order to launch this project."

Russian Students Recruited As Drone Pilots Reassigned As Frontline Infantry

The only surprising thing about this news is that it appears to be surprising. The Russian military has repeatedly promised 'safe' rear area jobs to students, immigrants, older men and others, only to then send them to the front as infantry in exposed positions. 

The estimated survival time for a Russian private at the front is two weeks. This brings to mind a line from the movie, Animal House: "You fucked up, you trusted us." JL

Katherina Popilnichenko reports in Untied 24:

Young Russian students who signed specialized military contracts to serve as drone operators are being reclassified as regular infantrymen and deployed into direct frontline assaults. Recruiters targeted university and technical students, promising them technical training and safe positions away from active combat zones. he first known casualty from this specific recruitment practice in May. Valeriy Averin, a 23-year-old student from Buryatia, signed a contract with the Russian Ministry of Defense in January during his final year at the Buryat Republican Technical School of Construction and Industrial Technologies. After completing drone pilot training, he was sent to the front and died in the Luhansk region on April 6, just days after deployment.