White House Offered $9-12 Trillion Deal To End Ukraine War On Russia's Terms

Knowledgeable observers have long suspected that Trump administration favoritism towards Russia, versus Ukraine, was driven by promises of economic riches. The scale of those has now reportedly been revealed. 

Hacked communications suggest that Putin has offered the White House approximately $12 trillion in economic inducements to end the war on his terms. While that is several times Russia's entire GDP and thus unachievable, the greed of the White House negotiators combined with their relative ignorance about Russia generally suggests the administration may well have been swayed by this delusion. JL

Harriet Barber reports in The Telegraph:

The proposal, dubbed the “Dmitriev package” after Russian negotiator Kirill Dmitriev, was uncovered by Ukrainian intelligence. "It amounts to around $12tn (£9tn).” The move suggests Moscow is intensifying efforts to influence Donald Trump to win Washington’s favor (as the Russian military invasion and economy have stalled). Experts were skeptical about the proposed economic package, pointing out that $12tn is several times Russia’s entire GDP.

Ukraine's Age 60+ "Steppe Wolves" Volunteer For Hazardous Duties

Until this past summer, Ukrainians over the age of 60 were not allowed to join the military - and serving soldiers hitting that age had to retire. 

But then an unofficial unit of volunteers established themselves and offered to do one of the most hazardous jobs on the battlefield: collecting misfired missiles and repairing them for reuse. Their work ethic was so impressive and contribution so important, that the government changed its law, which now permits those over 60 to join the military as volunteers. JL

Yevhenia Nazarova reports in RFE/RL:

The Stepovi Vovky, or "Steppe Wolves” is a unit not officially recognized by the Ukrainian Army-- but its members, who are all older than 60, are doing a job considered too risky for regular troops: collecting misfired missiles and hauling them to be repaired and reused. "We take it apart, remove the warhead, remove the tail, unscrew it, pull out the ignition system, and replace it. Or replace the powder that ignites the missile so it will launch.” The volunteers tried to enlist in the Ukrainian Army but weren’t allowed to under the law, which forces soldiers to retire at 60. They convinced the government to change the law so citizens 60 years and older could volunteer to join the military.

Russian Loss Of Front Starlink 'Catastrophic," Causing Friendly Fire, Attack Halt

SpaceX CEO Elon Musk restricted access to 'gray zone' Starlink terminal access, which was the only kind Russian troops were allowed to use - but which had become crucial to their operations. 

The result, for Russian forces on the front line and in rear areas has been described as 'catastrophic, as units have lost the ability to communicate with each other, leading to friendly fire incidents and cancelled offensive operations. There is no known substitute available to Russia in the short term. And the Ukrainians are grateful that commercial considerations from licensed users forces SpaceX to enforce its own rules, which hurt the Russians. JL

Howard Altman and Tyler Rogovay report in The War Zone:

Russia is frantically trying to plug massive communications gaps after SpaceX CEO Elon Musk restricted the Starlink satellite communications system in and around Ukraine to only registered users. Starlink gives users high bandwidth, secure communications anywhere. Replacing that capability, especially in the short term, is impossible. The situation is close to critical. Assault operations have been suspended, and unit command and control system is experiencing serious interruptions. It is virtually paralyzed. “Without stable comms on the front line, chaos begins, including incidents of friendly fire. Lack of coordination is already leading to heavy losses. It is a catastrophic situation.”

60% of Managers Use AI To Decide Pay, Promotion, 20% Without Human Review

60% of managers are now using AI to make hiring, compensation and promotion decisions - and 20% are doing so without any human oversight - but only one third of those managers admit to being trained on the systems they are employing.

No one likes being judged by a black box and law suits are sure to multiply since the people using these tools frequently have no idea how the models make their decisions. JL

  
Tristan Bove reports in the Washington Post:

A wave of AI-powered products is automating HR processes. They promise efficiency and precise information for managers conducting performance reviews or evaluating who is eligible for a raise or promotion. More than 60% of managers say they use these tools to inform decisions on their employees. But sometimes the people using these systems don't know what's in the black box - and people dont want to be judged by a black box." Only one-third of managers who used AI to manage people had received formal instruction on how to use the tools and 20% allowed AI to make decisions without human input.

Russian General's Shooting In Moscow May Be Kremlin Peace Sabotage Attempt

The Russian general who was shot in Moscow may have been the victim of an attempt by the Kremlin to sabotage peace talks by blaming the shooting on Ukraine. It may also have been driven by internal Russian military competition since the leader of the Russian peace delegation was the wounded general's boss. 

The Ukrainian head of their peace talk delegation is the former head of that country's military intelligence and he has already been quoted as saying, "believe me, we are not that stupid," since blaming the Ukrainians would be a clumsy Kremlin attempt to anger President Trump. Putin is growing desperate to end the war closer to his terms as his army's performance has collapsed so far in the new year as his economy is faltering so creating a crisis and blaming it on Ukraine would not be outside the realm of possibility for the former KGB agent turned dictator. JL

Nataliya Vasilyeva reports in the New York Times:

A top Russian general in intelligence gathering for the Ukraine war was shot in Moscow today, the latest in a string of attacks on military leaders inside Russia. General Vladimir Alekseyev was one of the Russian officers providing intelligence for the 2022 invasion. He has been targeted with American sanctions twice: first, for meddling in the 2016 U.S. elections and later, for his role in the Novichok nerve agent attack against Sergei Skripal a Russian former spy, in Britain in 2018. The shooting happened as the general’s boss led the Russian delegation in talks with Ukraine in the UAE. Russia’s foreign minister accused Ukraine of attempting to kill Mr. Alekseyev in order to “disrupt the negotiation process.” The the attack on a GRU general so near to peace talks "cannot be a coincidence."

Entire Russian Platoon Captured In Dobropillia Clearing Operation

The significance of this operation is that Ukrainian troops rarely capture more than a few Russians at a time. 

That an entire platoon surrendered appears to confirm reports that Russian forces on the front line are literally starving due to the interdiction of their supplies and prevention of reinforcement by Ukrainian drones. This also gives further credence to reports of low Russian morale. JL

Francis Farrell reports in the Kyiv Independent:

Ukraine's Azov International Battalion captured 18 Russian soldiers in less than 24 hours during a clearing operation of the village of Zolotyi Kolodiaz near Dobropillia.  Zolotyi Kolodiaz was one of the furthest villages reached by Russian forces during its infiltration operation that began in August. While Russia’s advance was quickly halted, dozens of Russian troops remained dug in across the villages where the breakthrough occurred, with clearing operations stretching on for months. The Russian soldiers (constitute) an entire platoon.  

Putin's Siversk "Victory" Turns Out To Be Preplanned Kill Zone Trap For Russians

In the broader context of Russia's failure to take Pokrovsk, the supposed loss of Siversk garnered little notice outside Ukraine. It had been successfully defended for almost 4 years but then reportedly collapsed when Ukrainian territorial units broke, their leaders subsequently disciplined. 

Or did they and were they? The emerging narrative is that the Ukrainians designed the 'collapse' to lure unsuspecting Russian units to surge forward, into what was a preplanned kill zone trap. The city's geography - surrounded by hills from which Ukrainian artillery and drones have fire control - and the unyielding nature of Russian tactics means that the Russian forces which entered are now being decimated as their bunkers in the rubble were pre-sighted by the Ukrainians and their logistics routes are under constant fire. In retrospect, it is conceivable that some Ukrainian territorials did, in fact, break, but that the Ukrainian command quickly saw this as an opportunity and have turned it to their advantage. JL

Decimus reports in Daily Kos:

At Siversk, did Russian commanders, hard-pressed for a victory, rush into another well-crafted Ukrainian trap? What looked like defeat was actually deception. Russian troops rushed in, believing the frontline had broken. Instead, they walked straight into a pre-planned kill zone. Surrounded by higher ground, cut off from secure flanks, and exhausted, Russian units are now exposed to Ukrainian artillery and drone strikes. Russian tactics, in Siversk, mean entering a destroyed city where every movement is recorded by Ukrainian drones. What worked in the “cauldron” of rural villages turn into a casualties in the Siversk trap. The deeper Russians enter the city and bring more manpower and equipment, the wider the target for strikes on the rear and logistics.