Ukraine Is Now Conducting More Offensive Operations Than Russia

Evidence is accumulating that Ukrainian forces have seized the initiative in the war against the Russian invasion. For the first time in three years, the Ukrainians have initiated more offensive operations across the length of the front than have the Russians. 

This suggests both an increase in Ukrainian offensive capabilities and a degradation of Russian resources driven by effective Ukrainian targeting of the Kremlin's military deep inside Russia as well as closer to, but behind, the front as Ukraine's kill zone has expanded, hindering the Russians' ability to launch any operations beyond trying to stay alive. JL

Anzhelika Kalchenko reports in Militarnyi:

The number of offensive operations carried out by Ukrainian Forces currently exceeds that of Russian troops. This is the outcome of systematic efforts to inflict casualties on enemy personnel and reduce their offensive capabilities. Ukrainian units are increasingly imposing their own pace of operations on the enemy. This means that Ukrainian forces are seizing the initiative at the tactical level, forcing Russian troops to react to Ukrainian actions. This shift in the balance of power has been made possible by a combination of precision strikes, the depletion of enemy reserves, and constant pressure on its forward units. This is significant against the backdrop of prolonged Russian offensive operations, where the pace of attacks has been considered one of the enemy’s key advantages.

Wall Street Journal Headline: 'The War In Ukraine Is Going Badly For Russia'

When the dominant, pro-business and pro-Trump newspaper in the US leads with a headline stating that the war is going badly for Russia, it is sending a message. 

That message implies that Russia's invasion cannot achieve its objectives, the war it has ignited is not winnable by Russia and the result is bad for business globally. So the powers that be want Putin to start finding a way to stop it before he causes even more damage to his country's and the global economy, as well as oligarch rule. JL

Marcus Walker and Anastasiia Malenko report in the Wall Street Journal:

Ukraine's military has wrestled Russia’s much-larger army to a halt in recent months, having gained a tactical and technological edge. Ukrainian brigades have learned how to deal better with Russian infiltration tactics, hunting down with drones and cleanup teams enemy soldiers who slip past infantry positions. “We’re seeing diminishing returns for Russia from last year’s adaptations.” Russia’s advances so far this year are the slowest in two years, with little to show for losses that analysts put at up to 35,000 soldiers killed or wounded a month. Parts of the 600-mile front line are now contested in both directions, unlike in 2025. In Russia, the spreading consciousness is that the war is a quagmire

Russian Troops' Fear Grows As Ukraine AI "Slaughterbot" Drones Headhunt Them

A new Ukrainian drone, nicknamed "the Slaughterbot," is AI-driven and features thermal imaging to capture a Russian soldier's heat signature as well as facial recognition to identify individual soldiers, especially officers. Its growing use has led to a sharp increase in drone kill ratios against Russian troops - as well as a concomitant rise in their justifiable fears of death. 

The new drones are small, inexpensive and supremely accurate. Their use is intended to help assure that Ukraine eliminates more Russians per month than the Kremlin is able to recruit. JL

David Hambling reports in Forbes:

A new Ukrainian FPV drone with thermal imaging and AI detects the target’s face and fires a high-velocity projectile at them. A video shows a Russian soldier cut down with a precise head shot from one such drone. A further video confirms the kill. AI-enabled FPVs have an 80% hit rate instead of 40% for manual control. Robert “Magyar” Brovdi, Ukraine’s Unmanned Systems Forces commander, has stated a prime goal is taking out Russians faster than they can be recruited, eg, 30,000 a month. Ukrainian drones are now achieving this. Drone kills have increased sharply, driven by deployment of the new anti-personnel drones locked on to a target and which complete the killing process using combat AI, facial targeting and a heat signature.

In OpenAI-Musk Trial, Altman, Musk and AI Were All Tarnished

Legally, OpenAI and Sam Altman won. But in a broader sense, the individuals involved, the tech industry and AI all lost. 

Altman and Musk - as well as a number of their colleagues - came across as untrustworthy, even deceitful, dishonest and selfish. The figurative mud they threw at each other will not go away. Subsequent polls show that when asked who respondents trusted more - Altman, Musk or any AI executive - the overwhelming answer was "none of the above." What this means is not an immediate decline in AI's fortunes, which continues to driven by a combined fear of missing out, irrational exuberance and greater fool theory (the greatest fool being the US government which, under the Trump administration, will be expected to bail out the wealthiest investors should the need arise). But this trial and the arrogant behavior it exposed, further undermines public trust in AI and those who plan to profit from it. And history suggests that can lead to a reckoning. JL

Nick Robins-Early reports in The Guardian:

Over three weeks in an Oakland, California, federal courthouse, the trial pitted the richest person in the world against the biggest names in AI. It provided moments of embarrassment for both tech moguls. Altman and Musk took the stand for hours, facing cross-examinations that accused them each as untrustworthy. The trial repeatedly painted an unflattering portrait of Altman as a deceptive operator. “You told the board that Altman ‘exhibits a consistent pattern of lying, undermining his execs and pitting his execs against one another’." “Yes,” the witness responded. OpenAI cast Musk as a sore loser in the AI race seeking revenge through the suit. OpenAI denied all of Musk’s allegations, arguing that not only was he aware of plans to create a for-profit entity but that he made a failed bid to take control of the company, then departed in a huff in 2018, and founded a competitor 

XI Reportedly Told Trump Last Week "Putin May Regret Ukraine Invasion"

That statement alone is worthy of note, given that China is Russia's most important ally and Xi has, so far, been generally supportive of Putin.

But what makes the leak especially intriguing is that it appears to have emanated from the Chinese leadership, not from sources in the US. And it comes just as Putin is arriving for talks in Beijing, with some saying he has been summoned, underscoring the disparity in relative strength between the two nations. This suggests that Xi may be coming to the conclusion that Russia is no longer capable of winning and may even be losing, which would make China look bad. He may, then, pressure Putin to begin to wind the war down before further damage is done to Russia and to the reputation of its allies. JL

Maira Butt reports in The Independent:

Xi Jinping told Donald Trump that Vladimir Putin could regret invading Ukraine, as the Russian leader prepared to meet his Chinese counterpart for talks in Beijing. Xi is reported to have made the remarks during talks between the US and Chinese delegations in Beijing last week. The alleged comment suggests a tension between the two allies. Ukraine is gaining ground due to its drone warfare strategy, combined with growing fatigue in the Russian military and domestic pressure on Putin, who has faced a drop in popularity according to opinion polls, with ordinary Russians facing internet disruption and a sluggish economy. With Ukraine increasing its long-range drone strikes, it has become increasingly difficult for the Kremlin to claim the war does not affect the daily lives of Russian citizens. 

For 1st Time, Ukraine's Long Range Drone Attacks Outnumber Russia's

Ukraine's long range drone attacks against targets inside Russia now outnumber such Russian attacks against Ukraine. The implication is that, in addition to Ukrainian success against Russian forces on the battlefield and on the sea, Kyiv's forces are surpassing the Russians in the air. 

The strategic reality is that no place inside Russia within 2,000 kilometers of the Ukrainian border - including Moscow and St Petersburg - is safe from Ukrainian drones. And of equal import, Ukraine's increasing domination of the middle strike territory - 20 to 300 kilometers behind the front - means that Russian access to Crimea and other occupied territory in the south is now vulnerable. JL

Mick Ryan reports in Futura Doctrina:

Ukraine's strategic strike campaign against Russian territory has now surpassed Russia’s long-range strike effort. Ukraine launched 7,000 long-range drones against Russian military targets in March 2026 alone, overtaking Russia in volume for the first time. The Russian air alert system issued warnings 2,000 kilometres from Ukraine on 5 May, illustrating the reach of Ukrainian drones. Ukraine has targeted oil refineries, naval vessels, military airfields and logistics nodes. Russian aviation has been forced to relocate thousands of kilometres east. Ukrainian drones recently struck Shagol airfield in the Chelyabinsk region, 1,700 kilometres from the front line. (And) Ukraine's ‘middle strike’ activities (20-300km from the front) might cut off Russian land access to Crimea, as Ukrainian forces have now established drone primacy over some southern Russian lines of communication, including the route from Mariupol to Crimea.

How Ukraine's Ground Robots Have Stopped Russians At Kostiantynivka

Ukrainian forces defending Kostiantynivka and other positions in Donbas are being supported by an army of ground drones (UGVs) that carried out 10,300 logistics and other missions last month alone. The UGVs can deliver hundreds of kilos of supplies (vs tens of kilos for aerial drones) while also capable of defending positions and attacking Russian troops. 

Warfighting will always require some humans, but the Ukrainians are demonstrating that they can reduce casualties without sacrificing military capabilities. JL

Euromaidan Press reports:

The the Ukrainian 1st Azov Corps and adjacent units have dug in in Konstyantynivka, and aren't inclined to give up . And they have help from a legion of ground robots that keep garrison in Kostiantynivka supplied with food, fuel and ammunition. The roads into Kostiantynivka are too dangerous for routine travel by human beings, so the unmanned ground vehicles—some of the 25,000 UGVs Ukrainian industry expects to produce this year—have taken over. The Ukrainians performed 10,300 resupply and evacuation missions by UGVs in April, a fourfold increase in unmanned ground logistics ops compared to six months ago. A garrison resupplied by machines can hold out much longer than one resupplied by human beings whose deaths impose much greater stress on the overall force. And who are more expensive to recruit, train, deploy and support than any UGV.