The Ukraine and Iran Wars Have Merged, Arguably To Ukraine's Benefit

Governments tend to observe each other and then employ similar tactics and strategies which appear to work. What Russia and Iran have done against Ukraine - drones, mercenaries, grain, oil export and energy infrastructure attacks - are deployed by Iran against the US, but now also being used by the US and Israel against Iran with anti-drone and electronic warfare assistance from Ukraine. 

And while much verbiage has been deployed about the benefit of the Iran war to Russia, the reality may be far more complicated. Ukraine has stepped up its attacks on Russia's crucial oil export assets, possibly degrading that source of capital by as much as 40%. In addition, the lucrative deals Ukraine has signed with Persian Gulf nations to defend themselves from Iranian drone and missile attacks will help fund Ukraine's burgeoning defense industry. In the meantime, with so much global attention on Iran, especially from the US, Moscow has had to pivot somewhat so its prime ally is not humiliated. This distraction has given Ukraine some advantages so far this year as the Kremlin's winter and spring offensives have both faltered, due in no small part to the Russian leadership's need for mindshare devoted to Iran. The end of neither conflict seems near, but their increasingly conjoined interests reflect the global political economy. JL

Seth Frantzman reports in The National Interest, Julian Borger and Pyotr Sauer report in The Guardian:

The two conflicts are beginning to merge. Weapons used on one battlefield inform decisions on another. Iran and Russia have long been close friends and partners. From missiles and drones to nuclear power and air defense (Iran acquired Russia’s S-300 air defense systems in 2016), the countries are deeply entwined. In both conflicts, Iranian-designed drones have played a key role. So have global shipping and energy markets. To limit Russia’s windfall from Iran war induced price increases, Ukraine has intensified strikes on Russian energy infrastructure. The security relationships Ukraine has now cultivated in the Gulf could provide a vital source of finance for Ukraine’s arms industry

Ukraine Regains Control Of 'Significant Frontline Areas' In East, Southeast

Ukrainian forces have continued to make 'significant' territorial gains in the face of Russia's spring offensive, as the Kremlin's troops cumulative shortages of personnel and supplies hamper their performance. 

The three months of Ukrainian counterattacks appear to have caught the Russians unawares with their ability to respond degraded relative to previous years, likely because of Ukraine's increasingly effective drone strikes on logistics and reinforcements. JL

Reuters reports:

Ukraine has regained control of 480 sq km of territory in the south-eastern and eastern parts of the front since late January as Russian forces suffered 'signficant losses in personnel and military equipment. Ukraine had returned to control over eight settlements in the Dnipropetrovsk region in the east and four settlements in the south-eastern Zaporizhzhia region. Military analysts said that Ukrainian counter-attacks in the south-east of the country were helping to disrupt Russian efforts around Pokrovsk in the eastern Donetsk region, and overall, the Russian spring offensive along more than 1,200km of the front line.

For 1st Time, In March, More Ukraine Drones Hit Russia Than Vice Versa

For the first time since Russia invaded Ukraine in 2022, more Ukrainian drones attacked Russia than Russian drones attacked Ukraine. 

It is significant that this turnabout has occurred at the same time that, for four months straight, Ukraine has inflicted more casualties on Russian troops than the Kremlin has been able to replace. The implication of this change in relative capabilities suggests that Ukraine is getting stronger and that Russia no longer is the dominant force in the fighting. JL

David Brennan reports in ABC News:

Ukraine launched more cross-border attack drones than Russia in a one-month period for the first time since the start of the war in 2022. Russia's defense ministry reported downing 7,347 Ukrainian drones during March, the highest monthly total ever reported by Moscow. The defense ministry only publishes figures of Ukrainian drones it claims were shot down.  Ukraine's air force, said it faced 6,462 Russian drones and 138 missiles in the month, of which 5,833 drones and 102 missiles -- 90% of drones and 74% of missiles -- were intercepted. Russia faced 237 Ukrainian drones daily while Ukraine faced 'only' 204 Russian drones. 

A $1.8 Billion Business Built With AI and A Payroll of Two

An AI savvy guy and his younger brother. Plus, admittedly, some outside contractors who were hired to handle some essentials when the business got too big. 

If you have the skills, it's possible. Whether it becomes more than an extremely interesting outlier or the norm remains to be seen, especially for larger corporations, but clearly, in some circumstances it can work. JL 

Erin Griffith reports in the New York Times:

From  his house in LA, Matthew Gallagher used A.I. to write the code for the software that powers his company, produce website copy, generate images for ads, handle customer service and created systems to analyze his business performance. His start-up, a telehealth provider of GLP-1 weight-loss drugs, in its first full year in business, generated $401 million in sales, amassed 250,000 customers, produced 16.2% in net profit, or $65 million, with spending going to the fees for telehealth platforms, marketing and then software. He then hired his only employee, his younger brother. This year, they are on track to $1.8 billion in sales. "Folks that have those skills, it’s their superpower. This is an extreme example, but I don’t think it’s going to be the last." 

Ukrainian Drone Wall Is Up, Resulting In Devastating Record Russian Casualties

Ukraine has effectively doubled the number of drones it has produced for the past three years and expects to do so again this year. 

The result is record Russian losses which, for the past four months, have been greater  than the Kremlin's capacity to replace them. You can argue with the strategy, if you wish, but you can't argue with the math. JL

Phillips O'Brien reports in his substack:

Russian losses in March reached their highest level since the start of the war as drones accounted for 96% of those casualties. For four months in a row, Russian losses have exceeded replenishment rates. The Ukrainians say each loss has been verified by their ePoints verification system, (meaning) they have a picture or video to back up these losses. The Ukrainians are also trying to degrade Russian air defense capabilities here which will further increase the effectiveness of Ukrainian UAVs. This means the Ukrainian drone wall seems a reality and growing. Ukraine has been able to double its drone manufacturing each year, producing 4 million in 2025, 2.2 million in 2024, and 800,000 in 2023. They are hoping to double production in 2026 compared to 2025, which was double that of 2024.

"Safe' Kremlin Black Sea Navy Port Burns, As Kyiv Drones Hit Frigate, Oil Assets

Two years ago, when Ukrainian drone and rocket attacks made Russia's historic Black Sea Fleet headquarters in Crimean Sevastopol untenable, the Kremlin moved them several hundred miles to the east, thinking Novorossiysk would be safe from attacks.

One burning cruise missile carrying frigate several drilling platforms and oil export terminals later, that assumption appears to be facing significant challenge. JL

Sonya Bandouil and Volodymyr Ivanyshyn report in the Kyiv Independent and New Voice of Ukraine reports:

Explosions were reported overnight on April 6 in the southern Russian port city of Novorossiysk, (new home of Russia's Black Sea Fleet since it was forced out of Crimea by Ukrainian attacks). A Russian frigate in the port, the Admiral Makarov, a Kalibr cruise missile carrier and the Syvash drilling platform were struck overnight. The Admiral Makarov was the last surviving Russian missile frigate equipped with Kalibr missiles in the Black Sea. The Sheskharis oil terminal in Novorossiysk, a major oil export terminal. was also struck by Ukrainian drones

Russia Suffers More Setbacks As Ukraine Vovchansk Counterattack Defeats Advance

Another sector, another Russian assault - and another failure with more casualties. 

As the first week of April ends and Russia's putative spring offensive enters its third week, the results for the Kremlin's forces remain abysmal. Having tried the south in Zaporizhzhia and the east in Pokrovsk, he locale, this time was in the north around Vovchansk, towards Kharkiv. Again, the Russians attacked and again, the Ukrainians anticipated their intentions, were waiting and stopped the intended assault. The broader issue appears to be both a lack of sufficient troops combined with - after four years of war - a decreasing number of options, making the Russian attempts rather more obvious, especially with Ukraine's increasingly effective drone forces monitoring the likely approaches and then striking any Russian units unlucky enough to have drawn the doomed assignment. JL  

RFU News reports:

Russia attempted to advance near Vovchansk. (But) a quick Ukrainian counterattack into the Russian flank, decapitated the Russian advance. The Russians didn’t have sufficient forces in this sector. Ukrainian forces collapsed the Russian attack, pushing back the Russians back three kilometers, more than one-third of the distance Russia advanced from the border in 2 years. Without a sufficient number of force, the frontline here will remain with zero Russian chances of nearing Kharkiv.