This time is different, all right, but not exactly in the way the Silicon Valley-AI hype machine meant.
Like the blue tsunami that annihilated the Trump-MAGA coalition on Tuesday - and to which it is connected - the equity market wipe out had many different causes, none of which should have come as a surprise as they had been detailed for months: unrealistic financial projections, lack of discernible operating and economic improvements, slowing corporate uptake, dramatic increases in debt, refusal to acknowledge practical impediments to data center buildouts (aside from the rising political opposition) and the growing dependence of the economy and the markets on a shrinking core of AI companies. Markets are up slightly this morning, so this may either be a one-day freakout or a harbinger of more fundamental change, but either way, it is another warning that the prolonged AI trade is not likely to continue in the same way. JL
David Uberti and colleagues report in the Wall Street Journal:
Thursday's stock-market wipeout left few corners of the tech sector unscathed. Asian chip makers, Texas power producers, New Jersey cloud-computing providers, Silicon Valley software makers, contractors and data-center developers all tumbled, in a selloff that appeared to feed on itself. Traders making highly leveraged bets got crushed, but so did those who doubted a recent pullback in AI stocks would get worse. It did, from the opening bell. cracks began to show in risky corners of the AI trade where companies amassed huge piles of debt to grow. Underwhelming earnings reports by Amazon and Alphabet sent tremors across trading desks. Then, the power shift in Washington, as well as the election of governors who promised data-center restrictions, exposed the stock market’s fragility. The yearslong bull market left the major U.S. benchmark indexes top-heavy and tech-dependent. The unwind of bullish bets using borrowed money compounded the pressure. decrease; down pointing triangleand Alphabet GOOGL -2.20%decrease; down pointing triangle sent tremors across trading desks.the power shift in Washington, as well as the election of several governors who have promised data-center restrictions, exposed the stock market’s fragility. The yearslong bull market left the major U.S. benchmark indexes top-heavy and tech-dependent.