A Blog by Jonathan Low

 

Mar 19, 2026

Russian Zaporizhzhia Spring Assault Units Encircled, Many Losses, PoWs

Early reports indicated that Russia's spring offensive is off to a particularly poor start in the Zaporizhzhia sector, where they are being destroyed by Ukrainian drones, artillery and infantry who anticipated their assault. 

Losses, including many POWs, are revealed to be heavy - and this is just in the first day and a half, when they would ordinarily be expected to be performing optimally. Instead, they are foundering. JL
 
The Kyiv Post reports:

Ukrainian forces continue to conduct sweep operations in the Zaporizhzhia sector, clearing positions and capturing Russian servicemen during close-quarters fighting. Russia's spring offensive stretched from Rodynske to Hulyaipole, beginning March 16 with small assault groups. Ukrainian forces responded, inflicting heavy losses.“900 in a day and a half is a new record. They did not take a single area on this section.”  On March 17, Russia renewed attacks using infantry, motorcycles, armored vehicles, and even horses. Groups of Russian infantry had entrenched themselves in residential buildings, until Ukrainian forces forced them out of their positions. “The Russians were unable to advance. They cannot break through anywhere – we are burning their equipment.”

2 Ukraine Soldiers Hold Kramatorsk Dugout For 1 Year; Are Finally Relieved

The soldiers were originally assigned to hold a position overlooking a crucial road leading to Sloviansk. Eventually, they were surrounded. They burrowed in avoid artillery and drones, then held on with help from nearby units. 

Finally, they were evacuated, as Ukraine's winter advances relieved pressure on that sector of the front. People like this are not going to give up. JL

Taras Safronov reports in Militarnyi:

Two Ukrainian soldiers of the 30th Mechanized Brigade held their position for a year until recently evacuated by troops of the 425th Skelya Assault Regiment. Their task was to hold their position and secure a highway to prevent Russian forces from advancing toward Slovyansk. “We were mostly underground. We dug in so that heavy artillery would not reach us." A Skelya reconnaissance unit moved behind enemy lines, reached the soldiers, and extracted them from encirclement. The operation lasted three days and ended successfully.

How Ukraine's Winter Frontline Gains Shaped the Battlefield In Its Favor For Spring

Anticipation. If any word captures Ukraine's tactical and strategic accomplishments of the past few months, it is that. The Ukrainians correctly anticipated Russian plans, moved to disrupt them - and then thwarted them.

The result is that Ukraine is now in a better position to defend, as well as to seize opportunities it perceives, than it has been in the two preceding years of war. And they make no bones about their intent to take advantage of that. JL 

Francis Farrell reports in the Kyiv Independent:

Unlike this time last year or the year before, Ukraine is heading into spring with what seems like very good news. It survived its toughest winter of the war and, for the first time in years, Ukraine liberated more territory than it lost to Russian occupation in February thanks to a series of counterattacking operations on the southern front line. Not only that, but in doing so, Ukrainian forces disrupted and foiled Russia's plans for an offensive operation over March. Ukraine's attacks over February and March have played an important role in shaping the battlefield.

Apple Is "Way Behind" In AI - And Making A Fortune From It

There has been much hand-wringing about Apple's seeming inability to develop a coherent AI strategy even as old competitors like Google, Meta and Microsoft - along with newbies such as Anthropic and OpenAI - spend gazillions on the next sure thing. 

But those concerns, most of which are, in fact, crocodile tears - appear largely misplaced as Apple's revenues from AI top $1 billion thanks to its tollgate: the iPhone App Store through which most consumers and many business users secure their AI services. Laughing all the way to the bank is what it is called, even as the company ponders whether it even needs an AI strategy. JL

Rolfe Winkler and Nate Rattner report in the Wall Street Journal:

Apple is on pace to surpass $1 billion in AI revenue this year, a sum that demonstrates the company’s AI advantage. What Apple has that other AI players don’t is a dominant position (in) devices. However fancy OpenAI, Google, Anthropic and xAI make their chatbots, iPhones are still a primary way to deliver them to consumers. That means they pay the App Store tax, 30% of subscription fees in the first year and 15% a year thereafter. Gen AI apps paid Apple nearly $900 million in App Store fees in 2025. (As) competitors spend hundreds of billions of dollars on chips and data centers, Apple is spending a fraction of that, instead using the personal information people store on their iPhones together with chips it designs itself to power an on-device AI strategy.

Mar 18, 2026

Russian Casualties Double As Attacks Increase But Fail Across Entire Frontline

Ukraine inflicted double the number of casualties on Russia as the Kremlin increased the number of its attacks, all of which failed to gain any additional territory. 

The Russians are trying to recover from their winter failure as the weather warms but have proven incapable of improving their performance anywhere along the front line. JL

Artemy Medveduk reports in Espreso Global and Hromadske reports:

Ukrainian forces eliminated 1,710 Russian troops on Tuesday — nearly double the recent daily average of about 900 — while destroying significant amounts of enemy equipment - three tanks, 11 infantry fighting vehicles, 29 artillery, 1,189 drones and 230 vehicles. The Unmanned Systems Forces eliminated over 900 Russian soldiers in a 100 km long sector between Rodynske and Hulyaipol in a day and a half. The destruction coincided with Russia's attempt to intensify assaults in the spring-summer campaign. Despite intensive attacks, Russian troops failed to advance on any of the areas of the front.

201 Ukrainian Anti-Drone Troops In Middle East Defending Vs Iran Attacks

201 Ukrainian anti-drone military specialists are already in the Middle East helping defend at least four countries against Iranian drones with half a dozen other countries finalizing deals to secure more Ukrainians to help them.

Ukraine's expertise in anti-air defense - including troops and weaponry - is, without question, the most advanced in the world due to their four years of experience fighting Russia and its Iranian drones. And although US President Trump has claimed he does not need or want Ukraine's assistance, reports indicate that the US presented Ukraine with a formal request for such help on March 5 and that Ukrainian teams may already be advising the Americans. JL

Cassandra Vinograd reports in the New York Times:

201 Ukrainian military experts are in the Middle East to help defend against Iranian drones. “Our teams are already in the Emirates, Qatar, Saudi Arabia, and on the way to Kuwait and we are working with several other countries to get agreements in place.” 11 countries, including the United States, had asked Kyiv for assistance in combating the Iranian Shahed drones that in recent weeks have been launched at Persian Gulf countries. Ukraine’s interceptors are “far more cost effective” than the expensive air-defense missiles many Gulf states have been using to to shoot down drones. 34 more Ukrainian experts are ready to deploy.

Coordinated Attacks, Strategic Tradeoffs, Led To Ukraine's Winter Success

Ukraine's successful southern counteroffensive - which continues to gain ground - relied on several strategic tradeoffs that worked due to superior intelligence, elite troops and weaponry. 

The Ukrainians launched coordinated and mutually supporting assaults on two different axes to spread the already undermanned Russians even thinner. And Kyiv also redeployed elite units - one with Australian-supplied M1 Abrams tanks - risking some loss around Pokrovsk vs advances in the south, which was deemed a net gain. Those bets have paid off. JL 
 
RFU News reports:

Ukraine's counteroffensive  combined two mutually supporting drives—one toward Huliaipole in late 2025 and toward Oleksandrivka on 29 January 2026. Together, the two  advanced 10 to 12 kms into Russian-held territory across the junction of Donetsk, Zaporizhzhia, and Dnipropetrovsk oblasts, then recapturing 285.6 square kilometers in February. The unexpected blocking of Russia's Starlink degraded Russian situational awareness and command-and-control on the Oleksandrivka axis. Russian units switched to large antennas mounted on high-rise rooftops which expose their positions and make them easier targets. The success was (due) to a deliberate tradeoff as Kyiv pulled elite units - including the 425th Assault Regiment and its Abrams tanks - south from Pokrovsk, accepting some losses in Donetsk in exchange for strategic gains in the southeast.