Russian Refineries Struck, Burned By Ukraine After US Lifts Oil Sanctions

Immediately after the US again relaxed oil sanctions on Russia, a massive Ukrainian drone attack struck several Russian oil refineries from the Black Sea to the Baltic Sea, damaging them and leaving some still burning. The US government is desperate to reduce rising gas prices as its war on Iran continues despite repeatedly failed ceasefires. 

Ukraine now has the capacity to do this without US help or permission as it is developing more of its own weapons. It has been clear that it will no longer quietly accept actions which hurt Ukraine. JL

Ivana Kottasova reports in CNN:

Ukraine  attacked two Russian refineries and other key oil targets overnight Saturday, just hours after the US granted Moscow another waiver on the sale of its sanctioned oil. Kyiv’s ‌drone forces commander Robert “Madyar” Brovdi said Ukraine had struck the Novokuybyshevsk and Syzran oil refineries in Russia’s Samara region, the Tikhoretsk oil terminal in the Krasnodar region, and the Baltic Sea port of Vysotsk, as well as an oil depot in Sevastopol, in occupied Crimea. The Krasnodar region Emergency Response Headquarters said a fire had broken out at the oil depot in Tikhoretsk, and were trying to bring it under control. The governor of the Leningrad region where the Vysotsk port is located, said a drone attack had caused a fire at the port

Ukraine Wiped Out the Logistics of Rubicon, Russia's Most Effective Drone Unit

Ukrainian special forces identified and then destroyed the logistics center for Russia's most effective and feared drone unit, the Rubicon group. 

The storage sites were located near Mariupol, in occupied Donetsk. The strike eliminating them was launched yesterday. JL

Taras Safronov reports in Militarnyi:

Ukraine's Special Operations Forces struck the logistics base of the classified Russian Advanced Unmanned Technologies ‘Rubicon.’  The operation took place in occupied Manhush, the Donetsk region, on the night of April 17. A series of strikes on enemy targets was carried out using Middlestrike drones. Rubicon uses nearly all strike and reconnaissance drones available in Russia against Ukraine, with the exception of Shahed drones including conventional and fiber-optic FPV drones, Molniya and Lancet strike drones, ZALA, Orlan, and Supercam reconnaissance drones, as well as maritime and anti-aircraft drones.

Russia Running Out of Reserves As New Troops Deployed Less Than Loss Rate

There was a time when the Kremlin announced it was deploying new reserves to take an objective and western military experts worried if Ukraine could withstand the added pressure. Not so much anymore.

Russian forces are expected to be bolstered by 20,000 this summer, primarily for its ongoing bloodbath in Donbas. But these days, 20,000 Russians is less than two-thirds of the Kremlin's monthly losses. This suggests that the new deployment is unlikely to help achieve their unrealistic goals or change the war much - and if that is the largest force it can muster, that Russia is running short of reserves. JL

The Financial Times and The Institute for the Study of War report:

Russia is preparing to dip into its strategic reserve to add 20,000 troops to its force in southeastern Ukraine. 20,000 is below Russia's monthly losses, and may still outstrip Moscow's usable force-generation surplus, since new recruitment is no longer keeping pace with attrition and deployable reserves are limited. Russian forces have repeatedly failed to meet the Russian military command’s unrealistic deadlines. Russian forces set a deadline to seize Druzhkivka, Kostyantynivka, and Pokrovsk by the end of April 2026. They have not made the inroads in Kostyantynivka and Druzhkivka necessary to seize the settlements by the end of April. The deployment is unlikely to significantly alter the frontline; 20,000 soldiers are notably fewer than one month’s worth of Russian casualties.

New UKR Combined Aerial, Ground Drone Assault Units Overwhelm Russians

This winter, without fanfare, Ukraine deployed assault unis combining aerial, ground drone and infantry cadres in order to optimize the impact of its technological and tactical advantage. 

The results, in southern Ukrainian oblasts, were so successful in defeating Russian units and regaining territory, that the Ukrainian military has now made such units official and broadened their use for combat brigades. JL

Volodymyr Ivanishyn reports in the Kyiv Independent:

Ukraine has introduced "a new model of warfare - drone assault units, which combine aerial and ground drones with infantry into a single system. This approach has already shown results in the south (Zaporizhzhia and Dnipropetrovsk oblasts), where a large amount of territory has been liberated since February, due to the use of these latest units." Ukrainian drones carried out more than 22,000 front-line missions over three months.

Russia Hasn't Strength To Beat Ukraine's Pokrovsk Defense By Kremlin Deadline

Another year, another Kremlin deadline for capturing Pokrovsk. This year's deadline is the end of April, now about two weeks away. But informed observers do not believe the Russian military has the strength to overcome Ukraine's 7th Rapid Reaction Corps and its other units who have thwarted the Russians so far and seem able to continue to do so. 

The question for the Russians at this stage is whether fruitless attacks on well defended positions are worth the losses which seem primarily focused on Putin's need to appear strong rather than on any serious military objective. JL

Yuri Zoria reports in the Euromaidan Press:

Russia is targeting Druzhkivka, Kostiantynivka, and Pokrovsk for capture by April's end but does not have the strength to do so. Ukraine's defense forces are holding the northern outskirts of Pokrovsk and striking Russian troop concentrations before assault groups can form, preventing the Russians from forming assault groups.  Ukraine's defenses make any Russian advances slow and costly. Moscow tried and failed to make Ukraine cede the rest of the region, using the US-pushed peace talks. (This means) Russia is unlikely to seize Ukraine's Fortress Belt in Donetsk Oblast in 2026 - but could make some tactical gains at significant cost.

OpenAI's $852 Billion Valuation Questioned By Investors Amid Strategy Shift

As a potential IPO approaches, questions are being raised about OpenAI's valuation. The reason is that Anthropic's Claude is emerging as the superior model for business users, especially the enterprise market. And while OpenAI's ChatGPT remains immensely popular with consumers, the reality is that many of them are attracted to its lowest-capability free model. 

OpenAI appears somewhat panicked by this development. It fears both the financial and reputational cost of Anthropic's surpassing it as the more sophisticated AI. Its solution is to try to continue to build on its consumer success while also competing more seriously with Anthropic, but many investors doubt its ability to do so. The scrutiny of its valuation stems from both Anthropic's competitive challenge and the two-pronged strategy some believe will sap resources, weakening both efforts. JL

Ravikash Bakiola reports in Seeking Alpha:

OpenAI's $852B valuation is under scrutiny from some backers ​as the company shifts its focus to the enterprise ‌market to compete with Anthropic. Recent deals, initiatives, and abandoned projects are aimed at reorienting the company around a new strategy: defend ChatGPT’s dominance among consumers while taking on Anthropic in the higher-margin market for corporate AI services. Data from secondary marketplaces for both companies' stock indicate demand is higher for Anthropic, and, for the first time, buyers are placing a premium on the Claude chatbot maker over OpenAI. (But) the changes could leave it vulnerable to Anthropic and a resurgent Google. "You have ChatGPT, a 1bn-user business growing 50-100% a year, why are you talking about enterprise and code? It’s a deeply unfocused company."

Ukraine Has Fire Control Over All Major Russian Logistics Routes In Donetsk

Mundane, yet extraordinary. Ukrainian forces now have all major Russian logistics routes in occupied Donetsk under fire control, primarily from drones. 

As a result, any vehicle or troop concentration spotted can be destroyed. Nowhere is safe, no matter how far from the front line. This is a significant strategic achievement for the Ukrainians. JL

Stanislav Pohorilov reports in Ukraine Pravda:

Ukraine's 1st Azov Corps has taken control of all Russian logistics routes in occupied Donetsk and (can) now destroy any targets moving along them in the 'deep operational zone.' UAV operations along the routes of Zuhres, Andriivka, Starobesheve, Horlivka, Lysychansk and the Donetsk ring road indicate the ineffectiveness of Russia's airspace control system. "Not long ago, the occupiers felt completely safe there. But now all military targets moving along roads around Donetsk will be destroyed"