Napoleon and Hitler Failed To Do So, But Ukraine Has Struck Beyond Russia's Urals

Russia's largest oil refinery is located in Omsk, beyond the Ural Mountains that separate European, or western, Russia from Siberia in large measure because, historically, the Urals were believed to be a line beyond which foreign invaders, almost always coming from Europe, were unable to reach. Not anymore.

Two weeks ago, a Ukrainian drone flew 2,500 kilometers, the longest one way drone strike of the war to date, and hit the Omsk refinery, starting fires and damaging crucial equipment. The purpose was as much symbolic as strategic: the message being, nothing in Russia is safe and beyond the reach of Ukrainian drones. JL

The Golden Scripture reports:

There is a line on the map of Russia that has held for two hundred years. Napoleon’s army never crossed it. Hitler’s army never crossed it. In 1941, the Soviet Union moved its entire wartime industry behind that line because nothing could reach it there. Behind the Urals meant beyond the reach of an invading force. The Soviets  physically relocated factories, workers, and machinery behind the Urals, because German bombers and German tanks could not reach them. (But) in April, Ukrainian drones struck Yekaterinburg and Chelyabinsk in the Ural region. On July 6, a Ukrainian drone crossed it. It flew 2500 kilometers, the longest one-way strike of the entire war and it hit the Omsk refinery, the  largest in Russia. Omsk sits beyond the Urals. So does Angarsk, in Siberia. Of the ten largest refineries in the country, nine have now been hit.

64 Russian Troops Captured By Ukraine In Zaporizhzhia Counterattacks

That so many Russian soldiers 'chose to accept the Ukrainian offer to surrender' without putting up a fight underscores the Russian army's low morale at this point in the war their government initiated over four years ago. JL

Yulia Taradiuk reports in the Kyiv Independent:

Ukraine's 225th Assault Regiment on July 20 captured 64 Russian soldiers during an operation to clear infiltrating Russian groups from Zaporizhzhia Oblast. The Russian troops had been tasked with infiltrating behind Ukrainian positions to locate Ukrainian drone crews, gather intelligence, and plant Russian flags in villages for "propaganda footage." Ukrainian troops detected and cleared the infiltrating groups from Ternuvate, Kosivtseve, Rizdvianka, Verkhnia Tersa, and Vozdvyzhivka in Zaporizhzhia Oblast.

145 Russians Remain In Kostiantynivka As Ukraine Clears House by House

Despite premature claims by Russia's leaders, including Putin, that Kostiantynivka had been captured, the Kremlin has only an estimated 145 isolated infiltrators in the city who have been unable to amass enough of a force to secure any single neighborhood, let alone the entire urban area. 

As with most urban fighting in Ukraine now, there are large gray zones with positions manned by both armies. In Kostiantynivka, the Ukrainians have deployed assault troops to find and clear Russian infiltrators with infantry, artillery and drones, which they are doing systematically. JL

Decimus reports in Daily Kos, Polina Moroziuk reports in the Kyiv Independent:

Up to 145 Russian troops remain in Kostiantynivka, where Ukrainian units continue defending the city and conducting counter-sabotage operations. Ukrainian forces killed 21 Russian soldiers, wounded six others, and struck six Russian shelters in Kostiantynivka on July 18. "For at least a month now, maybe longer, the situation in the city has been as follows: the Russians move in, build up their forces, and we drive them out. This applies to any urban combat — there is no front line as such; even a larger Russian presence in a neighborhood does not indicate control since there may also be Ukrainian positions there." On July 3, 2026 Russia's leadership claimed capture of the city even though Russian forces had infiltrated only parts of the city and failed to secure it entirely. " Fortunately, the city is holding out and Ukrainian troops remain there. "

Murder By Russian Troops of Officers, Drone Pilots Rise As Ukraine Hits Deeper

As word spreads about the diminishing chances of survival for Russian soldiers in Ukraine, there are increasing incidents of troops killing commanders who order them on suicidal missions and drone unit members who target them if they try to retreat or surrender.

These incidents have become so numerous that Ukrainian drone units are now targeting Russian blocking detachments, including drone operators, who are responsible for assuring Russian soldiers attack or stay in position, killing those who refuse. The Ukrainian strategy is to reduce the risk of soldiers' surrendering or deserting, so their absence degrades the capability of the Russian units they abandon. JL

RFU News reports:

Russian soldiers have started to revolt against commanders forcing them into suicidal assaults, some executing officers and drone operators, those enforcing Russia's system of control. Since drone crews direct strikes against Russian soldiers attempting to retreat or surrender, they have become targets. One incident involved a Russian soldier who admitted he had murdered his company commander during an earlier deployment. He was sentenced to eight years in prison. (But), he was allowed to sign another military contract and return to the front. Ukraine has recognized that blocking detachments, including drone units, keep unwilling Russian soldiers in combat and has begun targeting them. As Ukrainian strikes hit blocking detachments, gaps appear in the system of coercion. Those gaps make desertion easier, and successful escapes encourage others to follow. Russia is then forced to divert soldiers and equipment away from combat operations to police its own troops.

Powerful Open Source AI Models Being Given Away Is Sign of the Market Working

Tech ALWAYS devours its own. One of the reasons why the stock market is wavering this summer is concern about spending on AI, as investors begin to question whether those costs can ever be recovered, let alone generate the promised excess returns. 

And a major cause of that growing skepticism is the release of a wave of open source AI models, many from China, which deliver comparable performance at a significantly lower price. For those who may have forgotten Econ 1 (not that anyone blames you...) that is what a functioning market does. While American tech firms are scurrying to Washington and asking any politician who will listen (while taking donations) to outlaw China, cuz...unfair, un-American, oh, and. by the way, they're Chinese...the reality is that a number of US AI companies including - GASP - Nvidia, are releasing their own open source models because they recognize that the underlying premise - a bigger market means more sales of everything (especially more chips) - is good for business. So Silicon Valley can bitch and point fingers all it wants, but its own history teaches that this is where the market is going, so get on board or get left behind with a nice photo of your shuttered data center. JL

Bill Gurley reports in the Washington Post:

Anthropic and OpenAI are preparing to go public at valuations near $1 trillion - based on extraordinary profit margins. The challenge to those margins is a wave of powerful AI models being given away for free. Releasing an AI model openly is a business strategy with a three-decade record of building large, profitable companies. The challengers won by delivering a comparable product at a lower cost. For software, once the first copy exists, the millionth costs zero to make. A model you can download is a model you can own freeing customers from a vendor’s pricing, keeping data secure. China’s open models come from DeepSeek, whose first round valued it at $50 billion; Moonshot, which raised $2 billion; and Zhipu which is publicly traded in Hong Kong at a market cap of $100 billion. Last week, Thinking Machines released an open model. Nvidia has released its Nemotron models freely, betting it sells more of the chips underneath.  The open-model wave is not an attack on AI companies. It is the market responding to the fortune they are about to make.

Russian Soldier Named In Kyiv Area War Crimes Eliminated

A Russian soldier from the notorious 37th Guards Motor Rifle Brigade that committed many of the war crimes in the Kyiv area immediately following the invasion in 2022 has been 'eliminated' by Ukrainian forces. 

The Ukrainians' memory is long and they are demonstrating a determination to neither forget nor forgive. JL

Vladislav V reports in Militarnyi:

Ukrainian forces eliminated Artem Belikov of the 37th Guards Motor Rifle Brigade, whom Ukrainian investigators suspect of involvement in the shooting of civilians in the Kyiv region. In March 2022, cars carrying Ukrainians attempting to evacuate from Severynivka to Uman. As a result of the shooting, a man, his wife and their 15-year-old daughter were killed on the spot. Only their youngest daughter, 9, survived. Belikov was among the soldiers who carried out the order. At the time, he held the rank of corporal, but he rose to the rank of junior lieutenant. On June 23, he went on a combat mission during which he was seriously wounded. Belikov was evacuated to a hospital but on June 27, he died of his wounds.

Zelensky May Be Forced To Fire Syrski and Bring Back Fedorov In Some Capacity

At a time when Ukraine's armed forces are having their greatest success against Russia since the opening invasion of Kyiv was defeated in 2022, President Zelensky's decision to fire Defense Minister Fedorov has been met by the fiercest opposition to any of his decisions since that time. Protests have erupted across the country and many are questioning Zelensky's judgement and motives. 

As a result, new reports reveal that, rather than toughing it out, Zelensky now realizes he must respond to those growing concerns. He has been meeting with military commanders, some of whom remain loyal to C-in-C Syrski and with other political leaders. It appears, at this point, that the president will either have to replace Syrski and, possibly, bring Fedorov back into government in some capacity. The implication is that Ukrainian society recognizes Fedorov and the success the armed forces have had during his tenure, represent the future, while Syrski, fairly or not, represents the corrupt Soviet past. And Ukraine wants the future. JL

Phillips O'Brien reports in his substack, Alona Mazurenko and Roman Romaniuk report in Ukraine Pravda:

Kyrylo Budanov, Zelensky's chief of staff, said "the public has been heard" and "there will be results" amid talks between Zelenskyy and military commanders. Sources say the president is seeking to replace Oleksandr Syrskyi, Commander-in-Chief of Ukraine's Armed Forces. Fedorov was “results oriented”, made decisions quickly, got his way against bureaucrats, opposed and uprooted corruption, thinks technologically. He put stress on air defense, drone production and troops' treatment. The personnel issues facing Ukraine would not be met by drafting more young people but by making military service more professional. The reaction of Ukrainian society and the armed services to Fedorov’s removal showed his vision had wide support and his dismissal was not going to be quietly accepted. Fedorov was a key to the changes that were giving them the initiative in the war. Protests started and grew, from Kyiv, Odesa, Kharkiv, Lviv and many other Ukrainian cities