Why, Despite Launching 37% More Attacks In May, Russia Still Lost Ground

Russian forces have begun  to lost the battlefield initiative, as Ukrainian troops launch as many, or more, assaults. But before this change began, Russia increased its number of attacks by over one-third in May. The problem was, that despite the rise, they still lost territory compared to the Ukrainians.

The reasons appear to be better commanders at more senior levels as more young leaders who have fought for the past four years begin to move up the ranks; the increasing effectiveness - accuracy and lethality - of Ukraine's drone forces; and the new focus on cutting Russian logistics from 50 to 200 miles from the front, which has made it difficult, if not impossible, for the Russians to organize and then initiate attacks. JL

Matthew Loh reports in Business Insider:

Despite Russia launching more frequent attacks on Ukrainian positions, with over 7,000 recorded assaults in May amounting to a 37.5% monthly increase, Russia suffered a net monthly territorial loss for the first time since 2023, when Kyiv launched its major counterpush. The Kremlin's losses were attributed to Ukraine putting capable commanders in higher positions under the new Ukrainian defense minister, Mykhailo Fedorov, who's been running the war effort since January. Some of Ukraine's success is also due to Kyiv conducting more mid-range drone strikes, at distances of about 30 to 50 miles, on Russian logistics hubs and operations. 

Ukraine Establishes Fire Control Over Russian-Occupied Donetsk Airport

As part of its expanding 'logistics lockdown' of Russian capabilities, Ukraine's drone forces have now established fire control over the occupied Donetsk airport, which has been turned by the Russians into a logistics hub and drone launch site. 

By doing so, the Ukrainians have further degraded Russia's ability to maintain its army in the field, contributing to the relative loss of tactical initiative at the front. JL

Stanislav Pohorilov reports in Ukraine Pravda:

Ukraine's Unmanned Systems Forces (14th Regiment) has taken Donetsk airport under fire control, destroying Shahed loitering munition launchers, construction cranes, vehicles and supply depots at the facility in the first operation of its kind. "The occupiers turned Donetsk airport into a military logistics hub and a launch platform for Shahed attack drones. Our forces are systematically burning enemy infrastructure, launch systems, vehicles and crews, degrading the airport and making operations impossible."

Half Of Frontline Combat Now From Ukraine Attacks As Russia Loses Tactical Initiative

Ukrainians and their supporters have become inured over the past few years to daily reports about Ukrainian forces responding to Russian attacks.

So it is extremely significant that analyses now indicate as many as half of all combat between the Ukraine and Russia along the front over the past month have been Ukrainian attacks on Russian forces. And that the trend is growing to such an extent that Ukrainian-initiated operations may soon exceed Russians'. The implication is that Russia has lost the tactical initiative, which has been gained by Ukraine, meaning that Kyiv's forces control the pace, location and nature of the battle, applying it to their advantage and the Russians' disadvantage. JL

Oleksii Hetman comments in Ukrinform, David Axe reports:

The ratio of attack and counterattack in combat engagements indicates that Ukraine’s forces are gaining the tactical initiative from Russia which no longer has the most assault actions in its war on Ukraine. (And), the Russians are losing the momentum at the time of year they usually have the most momentum: springtime. "There were 300 engagements a few days ago: about 150 were Russian assaults and 150 were Ukrainian counterattacks. This ratio has grown to 50–50. Compared to March, when it was 30–70 in favor of Russian attacks, the situation has now equalized.” If this trend continues, Ukrainian counterattacks may soon exceed Russian assault activity.  

Companies Begin To Ration AI For Employees As Token Costs Skyrocket

As the financial and tech worlds contemplate their first trillionaire, cost seems like such a relative issue. 

But even OpenAI's CEO Sam Altman, no shrinking violet when it comes to extolling AI's virtues, is admitting that exponentially exploding token costs are becoming a problem. No one is yet willing to state that such eye-watering expenditures will slow demand for AI (Heaven Forefend!) but the implication is there, along with lingering concerns about measuring how token use contributes to business results. Expect to see an initial burst of explanatory bombast about 'efficiencies' followed by more serious attempts to somehow mitigate the cost impact without denying AI firms their massive payday. JL

Bradley Olson reports in the Wall Street Journal:

Costs are skyrocketing for tokens, the basic unit of measurement for AI computing, as AI model providers seek to balance supply, demand and manage their costs. Some enterprises report their AI spending double or triple. The shift to usage-based pricing has forced enterprise customers to reckon with consumption.  Corporate leaders are scrambling to bring down expenses by finding ways to ration AI use in their organizations and increase computing efficiency.  Microsoft limited access to an Anthropic program for employees who can use an internal coding assistant instead. Companies using advanced AI coding tools have found only 18% of spending on tokens translating into shipped coding products that reach real users so Salesforce introduced a system for tracking how token use contributes to positive business outcomes. 

Having Destroyed Russia's Black Sea Fleet, Ukraine Is Now Striking Its Baltic Fleet

Russia's Black Sea Fleet is mostly resting on the bottom of that watery expanse, having been systematically eliminated by Ukraine's aerial and nautical drones. 

The Ukrainians have now turned their attention to Russia's Baltic Fleet, headquartered near St Petersburg - Putin's beloved home town - and hundreds of miles from the front. The Baltic Fleet also has a storied history, as one of the signal events of the Russian Revolution was the revolt of Baltic sailors at the Kronstadt base. It now provides ships to escort the Kremlin's shadow fleet of tankers so was attacked by Ukraine yesterday in what signaled the opening of a new front in its war on Russian military capabilities. JL 

Thomas Newdick reports in The Warzone:

The Russian Navy base at Kronstadt, near St. Petersburg, came under Ukrainian drone attack overnight, in a strike against the Baltic Fleet. Ukrainian drones targeted the base, including the Steregushchiy class corvette Boikiy, highlighting Russian warships' vulnerability hundreds of miles from Ukraine’s borders. By targeting Kronstadt, the attacks signify the opening of a new front in the drone war, against the Baltic Fleet. Located on Kotlin Island in the Gulf of Finland, 18 miles west of St. Petersburg, Kronstadt is one of the principal bases associated with the Fleet. Since any naval threat approaching St. Petersburg must pass Kronstadt, the base acts as the maritime gateway to Russia’s second-largest city. Until now, there have been very few confirmed Ukrainian attacks of any kind on the Baltic Fleet compared with the extensive campaign waged against Russia’s Black Sea Fleet.

Russia Shows Weakness On Battlefield So Increases Ukraine Civilian Attacks

Russia's terror attacks on civilian targets in Ukrainian cities are increasingly being called out by the global media for what they are: a Putinesque tantrum spurred by impotent rage at the inability of its military to win on the battlefield, despite their initial advantages in manpower and weaponry. 

It is important to note that the New York Times, in which the article below appeared this week, has been a persistent Ukraine skeptic, seemingly never missing an opportunity to cluck its tongue at Ukrainian weakness and futility. That it is now joining the media consensus about Russia's failing Ukraine prospects suggests that it can no longer defend its previous editorial bias nor the waning power of the regime that initially prompted it. JL

Lara Jakes reports in the New York Times:

Russia has rained Ukraine with hundreds of drones and missiles, but cannot mask the increasing signs of Moscow’s weakness in the war. It's advance in Ukraine has slowed to a halt. Its combat performance is waning. Its recruitment efforts have fallen short. Domestic discontent is growing. Europe is providing new support to Ukraine, whose battlefield gains have turned the tide in the war, (and) whose military feels increasingly confident about their battlefield position.”

Losing 1000s of Trucks To Drone Hits, Russia Is Facing Logistical Dead-End

Resource-strapped and economically sinking Russia is now losing hundreds of trucks  a day  and thousands per month due to Ukrainian drone strikes on the mid range logistical routes supporting its military in Zaporizhzhia, Donetsk and Lunhansk.

Once again, the Ukrainians strategic identification of Russian weaknesses followed by a plan to make them worse is producing results for which the Kremlin has no answer. JL

David Axe reports in Trench Art:

The campaign of AI drone strikes is intensifying. And now the Russians are losing hundreds of trucks every day. Far more than they can replace with new production. While Russian ground forces possess tens of thousands of cargo vehicles, and buy thousands of new ones every year, they're currently on track to lose thousands per month. Russia lost 7,000 trucks in May, around 6,500 in April and slightly more than 6,000 in March. The number of old Cold War cargo vehicles in storage in Russia is 40,000 or 50,000. But that's just 100 days' worth of trucks at the current rate of loss. (And) the stored trucks have been parked "for decades without proper maintenance. Most are junk."