Drone Operator From Russia's Elite 'Rubikon' Unit Defects To Ukraine

Russia's Rubikon drone unit is elite - and feared - as an extremely effective conductor of drone warfare, arguably the only Russian unit to emerge from the Russian invasion with that reputation. 

What is most interesting about this case is that the young defector describes an atmosphere which, rather than supportive and proud as one might expect from an elite unit with advanced technological skills, is similar to those reported from other frontline Russian units, with fear and intimidation commanding a generally harsh environment. JL

Dmytro Shumliasnkyi reports in Militarnyi:

Miroslav Simonov, who served in Russia's Rubkon drone unit, defected to Ukraine. He is originally from Novosibirsk and worked in real estate. During a trip to Moscow, he was detained by police and, under the threat of a criminal case, he was conscripted. He described the unit as harsh, with psychological and physical pressure, humiliation, and threats of being sent to “meat assaults” if conflicts arose with commanders. He cites a turning point when a Molniya UAV strike hit the wrong coordinates, killing a civilian girl in Kupyansk. He was shocked by the battalion’s chat reactions and the command’s apparent approval of the incident. Following that, Simonov decided to defect through contact with Ukraine's "I Want To Live" project. 

For Past 2 Months, Russia Could Only Replace 75% of Losses Inflicted By Ukraine

Data reveal that the Kremlin's ability to replace its losses in Ukraine is diminishing. In historical terms, this is a signal that the Russian army is getting weaker because it cannot regenerate itself, meaning that its ability to pose a threat is declining. 

Ukraine identified this potential and announced a plan to inflict 50,000 Russian casualties a month while reducing its own by greater use of aerial and land drones. But the supply side of the equation is that Russia is running out of manpower inside the country and in adjacent Central Asian nations, as well as from tricking or cajoling other young men from poor countries around the world. JL

Phillips O'Brien reports in his substack:

Ukraine is causing losses significantly above Russian replacement rates. In December 2025 and January 2026, with figures supported by western intelligence agencies, Russia's losses were, 33,200 lost and 27,400 replaced, then 30,618 lost and 22,000 replaced. So for two months the Ukrainians have caused 63,818 losses which the Russians have only been able to replace with 47,400. This is statistically a very large gap, with new troops only making up for 75% of the losses suffered. To go from equal loss/replacement levels to a 25% gap in a short period is striking. It also happened because the Russians (are) struggling to attract new recruits. Armies tend to get relatively stronger or relatively weaker. They rarely tread water for long periods. The trajectory over the last two months is that the Russian army could be getting weaker.

Russian Daytime Snowmobile Assault Meets Thermal Drones, Ends In Massacre

Using snowmobiles might have worked in Dr Zhivago's time a century ago...had they been invented. But now, with the use of drone-mounted thermal cameras, both the machines and compacted tracks they leave are easily identified. 

Attacking in daylight might not have been worse than attacking at night, given the available technology, but it wouldn't have worked either way. And the fact that snowmobiles can only carry a few troops does not make it a likely engine of breakthrough. Another hard lesson learned by now dead Russian soldiers. JL

Euromaidan Press reports:

Russian forces daytime attack near Korchakivka in northern Ukraine's Sumy Oblast ended in defeat for the Russians. The Ukrainian 71st Air Mobile Brigade detected and bombarded snowmobiles pulling sleds. The problem for the Russians is that snowmobiles were developed before the proliferation of  thermal drones with heat-sensing cameras. The snowmobile-riding Russians couldn't thermal eyes of the 71st Airmobile's drones. And compacted snow shines brighter on thermal cameras than loose snow does. Ukrainian drone operators have learned to find even the best camouflaged Russians by following their tracks across the snowy landscape. (Another) drawback  drawback is the number of personnel it can carry and their exposure to the elements.

OpenAI's Biggest Challenge Is How To Make Enough Money To Equal Its Costs

OpenAI has first mover advantage, a fine product, a global brand and lots of funding. The one thing it does not have, so far, is what, in an earlier tech era, was called a path to profitability. In fact, OpenAI's situation could be considered somewhat more worrisome because, right now, many investors would be happy with a path to revenue generation that even begins to approach, let alone equal, its spending. 

The issue is not whether OpenAI can figure that out, because there are a number of options for it to do so that seem achievable. The question is how it executes that strategy against an increasingly competitive AI marketplace against the likes of Google and Anthropic whose action plans are already being implemented. OpenAI's desperation became evident last month when it floated - and then quickly retracted - a concept that would require customers using OpenAI's model to share revenue and/or profits from any discoveries that OpenAI's technology helped create. The howls of outrage caused the company's execs to backtrack immediately, but that it was even considering such a move revealed the depths of its need. JL 

Cade Metz and Mike Isaac report in the New York Times:

The financial pressure is immediate. Last year, OpenAI pulled in $13 billion in revenue but over the next four years it expects to spend over $100 billion. As it spends billions on the computing power needed to build and deploy AI, the start-up is scrambling to find new ways of generating revenue from these technologies and balancing its books. "This is the critical issue in the minds of investors today." Even as OpenAI moves into advertising, it hopes to increase the share of it revenue from enterprise products for business, government and other large organizations to 50% by the end of the year. “OpenAI has no choice to move more aggressively into enterprise software.” All of its ambitious efforts to make more money face enormous hurdles and competition. 

Ukraine Cyber Assault Unit's Fake Starlink Registration Tricked Russians Into Identifying Locations

A Ukrainian cybersecurity unit set up a fake network to lure Russian troops into creating legitimate registrations for Starlink terminals from which the Russian military was banned. 

The result was that the Ukrainians secured the precise locations of Russian Starlink terminals, cash and the names of Ukrainian traitors eager to help the Russians in what turned out to be a very successful sting operation. JL

Matthew Loh reports in Business Insider:

Ukraine's 256th Cyber Assault Division partnered with open-source intelligence groups to promote a network of Telegram channels and bots that offered to help the Kremlin's troops register Starlink terminals on a Ukrainian whitelist. But the channels were a ruse, and had instead been run by Ukrainian forces, who were sent location and terminal data from the Russians. The 256th collected 2,420 data entries on Russian Starlink terminals and their precise locations, as well as $5,870 from Moscow's troops paying for the faux service. (And it secured the names of) 31 Ukrainians who approached its fake network asking for opportunities to help Russians register terminals.

Intimidation Vs Leading: Russian Officers Under Growing Kremlin Pressure

As enhanced Ukrainian targeting leads to Russian casualties that exceed conscription while territorial gains remain miniscule, Russian field commanders are under growing pressure from the Kremlin, which leads them to resort to intimidation over leadership of their troops. 

The failure of Russian strategy and tactics is creating a crisis as the country can no longer add enough troops and its economic decline worsens. The Kremlin is hoping that Trump will deliver them a victory they cannot achieve in battle, so the continued setbacks this winter are creating more uncertainty and dysfunction in the command structure. JL

Alisa Orlova reports in the Kyiv Post:

Intercepted calls show Russian commanders threatening and abusing soldiers to push them into deadly assaults. Russian field commanders are under intense pressure to demonstrate compliance with orders and report results to their superiors as quickly as possible. “Faster, f***, I need to file the f***ing report,” the commander shouts, reflecting “extremely low morale within Russian units, where intimidation has replaced leadership and highlight deepening dysfunction within Russia’s military command.

Putin's Plan To Save the Russian Empire Is Destroying It

For a variety of social, economic and technological reasons, the age of empires is over. Putin is trying to forestall that process (as is Xi in China, and to a lesser extent, Trump in the US) but the forces that set this trend in motion began long ago and are too powerful to stop, especially for a relatively backward country like Russia. 

Putin is going all-in, militarily and economically to impose his will on his desired outcome, but in so doing has merely reinforced the natural elements militating against it. JL

Yurii Marchenko interviews Harvard historian Serhii Plokhy in United24:

Russia is attempting to freeze the process of imperial disintegration by holding on to its borders and expand them at the expense of Ukrainians and Belarusians, who, in Moscow’s vision, are to be absorbed into Russia. (To achieve this goal) systematically depleting its reserves—military, economic, political, and others. (But) if these processes continue and accelerate, that is how Russia will be defeated. This empire is receding into the past through a major war in an attempt to reconquer lands once appropriated just as it is becoming more dependent on China.