To Fully Take Donbas, Russia Needs 18 More Months, Loss Of Entire Current Army

Russian negotiators continue to insist that Ukraine cede the entire Donbas region to them. 

The problem with that position, though, is that objective analyses reveal even if they could take it by force - which they have been unable to do for four years - succeeding would require at least another year and a half - and would also require losing their entire current army to do so. Which is especially problematic as the Ukrainians are now killing or disabling more Russians than the Kremlin can produce to replace them. JL

Vlad Litnarovych reports in United24:

Russia would need a year and a half to fully capture the Donbas region—and could achieve that only at the cost of losing the entire Russian force currently deployed against Ukraine. The pace of Russian advances remains extremely slow despite sustained offensive operations. Throughout 2025, Russian forces captured less than 1% of Ukraine’s total territory, paying an enormous human cost. Russia’s offensive operations are producing limited territorial gains despite sustained manpower and equipment losses, suggesting that any attempt to fully seize Donbas would come at an exceptionally high strategic cost for Moscow. Due to a severe shortage of frontline troops, the Russian military leadership on the Kherson front has begun reassigning medical personnel to active combat roles

Ukraine To Provide Air Defense To Help Stop Iran Drone Attacks

Experience counts. With Iran launching a far more robust assault on Middle East countries following the US and Israeli air attacks, the countries under attack like the UAE and Saudi Arabia, as well as NATO bases in the region are asking for help from the world's leading experts in anti-drone defense: Ukraine. 

Ukraine had already volunteered to provide its expertise and that offer was expedited by a request from the UK whose thousands of expats in the region, as well as its base in Cyprus, have now been attacked. JL

Leo Chiu reports in the Kyiv Post:

The UK is bringing in “experts from Ukraine” to help the Gulf states shoot down Iranian drones amid the recent US and Israeli strikes on Iran. Ukrainian President Zelensky offered to help Kyiv’s European allies fend off Iranian drones and missiles based on lessons learned in Ukraine, with Russia relying heavily on Iranian weapons in its Ukraine invasion. “The situation in the Middle East shows how difficult it is to provide protection from missiles and Shaheds, even in the Gulf countries, which have better air defense systems than our partners have provided us so far." On Saturday, Iran hit a military base in Bahrain, narrowly missing British personnel and attacked a British air base on Cyprus. 

Why Musk Cut Off Russian Access To Starlink, Enabling Ukraine's Winter Offensive

Widespread reports have confirmed that Ukraine's surprisingly successful counteroffensive in the country's south has been significantly enabled by Elon Musk's decision to deny Starlink access to Russian military use, most of which is non-paying or stolen. The big question is not about the impact of that decision, but why it was made by a quixotic tech businessman who had previously been sympathetic to Russia and even intervened earlier in the war in its behalf. 

While no concrete reasoning has been provided, it appears that Russian use of Starlink terminals to guide aerial drones to attack Ukrainian President Zelensky's office crossed some sort of red line for Musk. He may also have been motivated by the rampant illegal use of his product and service, which was definitely not good for business as paying customers complained - or decided to hack it themselves. As a result, a 'white list' of approved, paying customers has been created by the company. This benefits Ukraine - and has severely degraded Russian command and control since virtually none of their terminals, acquired mostly on the gray or black market, are approved or paid. But the larger question for everyone involved is, do you really want your defense to be dependent on one guy's whims? JL

Simon Shuster reports in The Atlantic:

Ukraine and its allies first realized the depth of their dependence on Starlink in the fall of 2022, when Musk used the system to stop a Ukrainian plan to sink Russian warships stationed in Crimea. Late last month, a Russian attack drone slipped through Ukraine’s air-defense systems and glided into Kyiv’s government district, heading in the direction of President Volodymyr Zelensky’s office. It crashed, injuring no one. (But) the incident set in motion events that would allow Ukraine to seize momentum at the front with the help of an unlikely ally: Elon Musk. This time, Musk assisted Ukraine in the war. But dependence on his good graces still worries the Europeans. “We need to be independent from Musk. That is a strategic necessity.”

Ukraine Is Annihilating Russia's Desperate Myrnohrad Quad Bike Assaults

Ukraine's successful counteroffensive in southern Zaporizhzhia and Dnipropetrovsk oblasts has diverted attention away from the Pokrovsk - Myrnohrad sector, where bitter fighting is still ongoing. 

Having failed to fully capture the two cities, Russian forces are still trying. They have experimented with a series of tactics - armor, small infantry units, motorcycles - all of which have been decimated by drones and artillery. The latest concept, quad bikes, was embraced by Russian commanders because the quads can hold four soldiers rather than the two who can ride a motorcycle. But the quads are both easier to see and less maneuverable, making them even better drone targets, with the resultant Russian casualties to be expected. JL

Yuri Zoria reports in Euromaidan Press:

Russian forces at Myrnohrad are increasingly turning to quad bikes after failing to break through Ukrainian positions there. Moscow is deploying over ten battalions or regiments around Myrnohrad and cycling through increasingly varied vehicle tactics — from armored columns and motorcycle assaults to individual infiltrations — as each tactic runs into Ukrainian drone and artillery defenses. Russia has deployed about 150,000 troops on the Pokrovsk axis, using small assault groups, motorcycles, buggies, and now increasingly quad bikes. Four Russians can ride each bike. (But) quad bikes have a significant drawback — limited maneuverability that makes them easier targets for strike drone pilots. 

After DoD Bans Anthropic, It's AI Bot Surpasses ChatGPT As Most Popular

In a result counter to what the US Defense Department and White House anticipated, their banning of Anthropic for government use, due to the company's insistence that some uses were unacceptable, has spurred Anthropic's Claude AI chatbot to #1 in free downloads, surpassing OpenAI's ChatGPT, which opportunistically agreed to the Pentagon's demands. 

Claude has been rising in the rankings for months as word of its performance spread. And reports reveal that it is superior to any others, including OpenAI, for many of the uses the Pentagon requires. But the attempt to stigmatize Anthropic appears to have backfired, in a result reminiscent of what happened to Tesla when owner and CEO Elon Musk alienated his car's primary market by taking increasingly controversial political stances. It is noteworthy that Anthropic's objections were based on its research showing that AI was not yet capable of the tasks the Pentagon envisioned, as well as the company's concerns about the legality of some of those uses. It is not clear if a compromise can be reached between Anthropic and this administration, but the government and military are more likely to suffer from that than is the company. JL

 
Anthony Ha reports in Tech Crunch:

After President Trump directed federal agencies to stop using Anthropic products and Secretary of Defense Pete Hegseth said he’s designating the company a supply-chain threat, Anthropic's AI chatbot Claude has been rising to the top of the free app rankings in Apple’s US App Store. On Saturday evening, it overtook OpenAI’s ChatGPT to claim the number one spot. Claude was just outside the top 100 at the end of January, and has spent most of February in the top 20. It’s climbed rapidly in the past few days, from sixth on Wednesday, to fourth on Thursday, then first on Saturday. Daily signups have broken the all-time record every day this week, free users have increased more than 60% since January, and paid subscribers have more than doubled.

Ukrainian Air Assault Forces Break Russian Lines At Oleksandrivka, in South

Continuing their opportunistic counter offensive, Ukrainian troops in the country's south, in this case air assault forces, have broken Russian lines at Oleksandrivka, adding to the territory recaptured and further stymieing Russian efforts to prepare for spring offensives. JL

Kateryna Tyschenko reports in Ukraine Pravda:

Units from the 132nd Reconnaissance Battalion of the 7th Rapid Reaction Corps of Ukraine's Air Assault Forces have broken through the Russian defensive line on the Oleksandrivka front in Ukraine's south. The operation has wiped out enemy firing positions, manpower and ammunition storage sites, spoiling their plans for further offensive action. 

Why Time Is No Longer On Russia's Side In Ukraine

2025 was a crucial year for Russia's military in Ukraine. They threw everything they had into the effort to take Pokrovsk and make the Ukrainians sue for peace. But they failed, with underwhelming performance and barely measurable gains. 

This year promises to be worse for them, as the Kremlin struggles to find enough new cannon fodder and their winter bombardment of Ukraine's civilian heating systems only stiffened Ukrainian resolve. Russia is no longer capable of military breakthroughs and there is no evidence to support Putin's belief that he can prevail if he just keeps trying, especially as his economy craters and his global allies are falling like dominoes. JL

David French interviews Michael Kofman in the New York Times:

Russian combat performance last year was underwhelming. Their battlefield results have been lackluster and they face economic strain. The Russian military, while advantaged in manpower and matériel, has not been able to convert (those) into operationally relevant gains. The Ukrainians have offset the Russian advantages and held them to incremental gains. The Ukraine situation is not dire, they can still sustain the war, and Russia lacks the ability to pose a serious threat to Ukrainian cities or to take large territories. The political goals Moscow has are very difficult to achieve with the military they have available. Leaders often want to believe something will break their way if they persist, even though there’s no evidence of that. So is time really on Russia’s side? If 2026 unfolds in a fashion similar to 2025, then we can already say the answer is no.