A Blog by Jonathan Low

 

Jul 1, 2026

Drones Are Being Launched By Ukraine From Anything, Such As Other Drones

If it moves, it can probably launch an attack drone. At least, that is the Ukrainian war-making theory. And it's working. JL

Katie Livingstone reports in Defense News:
Ukraine has turned nearly everything it fields into an FPV launcher. Sea drones carrying fiber-optic FPVs struck the Russian ports of Tuapse and Novorossiysk. Kyiv has turned its signature naval drone – the little boat that drove Russia’s fleet out of the western Black Sea – into a launch platform for FPV attack drones. The Sea Baby can now carry six to eight FPV drones in side compartments that open during an attack, alongside thermobaric Shmel rockets

Russian Radar Systematically Destroyed, Creating Deep Strike Drone Path

In yet another example of Ukraine's chillingly strategic planning, it systematically destroyed Russian radar positions between its own drone and missile launch sites tp target areas around Moscow, St Petersburg and various economic objectives, thereby making its attacks on those targets much more successful. JL

Sofiia Syngaivska reports in Defense Express:

Ukraine's Unmanned Systems Forces' Polyphemus operation systematically destroyed Russian radar sites in Bryansk region, creating a corridor for deep-strike drones. The operation eliminated radar systems responsible for monitoring airspace along the approach to Moscow, creating a gap in coverage as part of a broader effort to weaken Russia's integrated air defense network rather than isolated attacks on individual targets. Recent successful strikes against targets in Moscow, St. Petersburg, and the port of Ust-Luga were made possible because Ukrainian forces established a viable corridor through Russia's otherwise dense air defense system. 

Putin Faces Growing Political Crisis Due To Ukraine Attacks On Moscow

Putin's problem is not only that, after four plus years, his military has proved incapable of overcoming its much smaller and - initially, weaker - Ukrainian rival, but that he can no longer protect ordinary Russians across the country and extraordinary Russians in Moscow and St Petersburg. 

The result is that he appears weak. Which is not only embarrassing, but has never proven to be a key to longevity for Russian rulers. JL

Paul Sonne and colleagues report in the New York Times:

President Putin faced fresh pressure today as Ukraine launched another attack on the Russian capital, continued to disrupt Russian fuel supplies and pressed its campaign to cut off Crimea. Russia has struggled to make progress on the battlefield in eastern Ukraine (while) Ukraine has subjected Russia to increasingly large drone attacks, eroding Mr. Putin’s ability to isolate Russian society from the war. ​Today's assault on Moscow came amid a Ukrainian campaign to target Russian refineries and fuel facilities that has led to shortages of gasolines and lines at gas stations across Russia. After the attacks, three out of four international airports serving Moscow had to suspend operations overnight. He said ​the attacks on Russian infrastructure causing fuel shortages were “creating problems.”

Ukraine Saboteurs Inside Russia Wreak Havoc With Local Operator Networks

Contrary to popular assumptions, not all of the attacks on Russian military and economic targets inside that country are carried out by drones or missiles. Some are conducted by Ukrainian special operations forces assisted by local sympathizers. 

Planning for these attacks, like one a week ago that destroyed six gas distribution facilities, some near Moscow, can take months. Russian citizens who are secret Ukrainian supporters do the initial reconnaissance and then help execute mission and its related logistics. The networks of Russian sympathizers to the Ukrainian cause - or simply opposed to Putin's dictatorship - are a surprising but essential part of Ukraine's success in degrading the Russian war effort. JL

Jake Epstein reports in Business Insider:

On June 22, Ukrainian saboteurs destroyed six distribution stations in the Moscow and Tver regions belonging to Gazprom, Russia's state-owned energy corporation. Planning began a year ago and The mission involved a large network of operatives across Russia who had been trained from afar. Ukrainian sabotage missions inside Russia aren't like action movies and require operatives to stay cool under pressure. Such missions are built around discipline, patience, and careful preparation. Planning is the most essential part because Russian security services are always watching. The most valuable quality is the ability to remain calm, follow the plan, and know when to postpone or abort. 

Microsoft Stock Has Sunk To One Year Low Amid AI Spending Concerns

When it comes to AI-related capital expenditures, investors are doing what they always do: asking what's in it for them. They were tolerant, even eager participants in some cases for the first quarter of 2026, but as the amounts projected to be spent continued to grow exponentially, while the 'path to profitability remained, to be polite, indeterminate, their patience has begun to wear thin. 

The result has negatively impacted AI-related stocks versus those with more tangible near-term value payoff prospects like semiconductors. The lesson is not that AI is dead - far from it - but that investors are becoming more discerning - and demanding - about expected returns. They want tech executives to show that they are getting that message. JL

Cris Tolomia reports in Quartz:

This is shaping up to be Microsoft's worst start to a year since 2000, as investors grow increasingly impatient with the costs of its AI buildout costs that have not yet translated into visible growth. Shares had shed more than 24% of their value so far in 2026. Measured against its S&P 500 peers on a month-to-date basis, only 18 companies have performed worse, with Microsoft down 21.6% in June - a decline potentially the steepest June drop in the stock's history. The culprit is capital expenditures. Last quarter saw them climb 63% from the prior year, a direct cost to free cash flow, which contracted by 10%. With outlays for 2026 estimated at $190 billion, the pool of capital available for shareholder returns shrinks accordingly. Microsoft is not alone. Capital appears to be shifting toward segments of the AI trade with more tangible near-term returns - semiconductor and memory companies chief among them

Jun 30, 2026

Ukraine Has Retaken Over 400 Km This Year As Russian Forces Reel

2026 is half over as of today - and the war has changed dramatically in Ukraine's favor. The Russians have lost over 400 square kilometers of territory to Ukrainian counteroffensives in several sectors. And in Kostiantynivka, contrary to Kremlin propaganda, objective observers assess that the Russians have only gained a third of the ruined city, which may become yet another kill zone trap, as others have before. 

Although the Kremlin - and Putin, personally - continues to claim a false narrative at odds with reality, it is increasingly apparent that global perceptions no longer match Russian distortions. JL

The Institute for the Study of War reports:

The battlefield situation has dramatically changed in the past year. Ukrainian counterattacks liberated much of Kupyansk late 2025, over 400 square kilometers in southern Ukraine in Winter and Spring 2026, and several settlements in western Zaporizhia Oblast since late April 2026. ISW has evidence that Russian forces maintain a presence in only 36.98% of Kostyantynivka. Ukrainian forces have also engaged in highly successful intermediate- and long-range strike campaigns against Russian military assets and oil infrastructure, which are having cascading effects on Russian logistics and battlefield operations as well as causing gasoline shortages and economic frictions across Russia and occupied Ukraine. Putin continues to make greatly exaggerated claims that do not match battlefield realities in order to obscure the growing strain Russia faces.

Since 2022, Russian Forces Have Missed 15 Putin Deadlines For Taking Donetsk

Awkward. It can be so deflating to one's reputation for toughness in the digital era, because it is easy to keep score. Between the Russian invasion in 2022 and now, President Putin has set 15 different deadlines for the Russian army to capture all of Ukraine's Donetsk oblast. There have been three separate deadlines set this year alone. 

But aside from the two most recent deadlines set in the future, the Russian military has failed to achieve any of them - and those two in the future aren't looking like good bets either. JL

Sevinj Osmanqizi reports in the Kyiv Post:
Since the start of the invasion, the Russian army has been given 15 deadlines for capturing Ukraine’s Donetsk region. Russia’s first deadlines came in 2022: March 31, May 9, June 1, Sept. 15 and Dec. 31. In 2023, Putin set two more deadlines for capturing Donbas: March 1, and then, when that failed, Dec. 31. In 2024, there were again two such deadlines. In 2025, when Russia tried to convince US President Donald Trump that Ukraine would fall, Moscow set three more final dates for capturing Donetsk region: Sept. 1, Dec. 1 and Dec. 25. This year, Russia again pushed back the target. First, it was March 31. Then Sept. 1. Now, the deadline has been moved to Dec. 31. "The million Russians who have not yet been mobilized into the army and are arguing in gas lines should think about what awaits them.”