Putin's ground war has stalled and shows no signs of correcting the inefficiencies and incompetences of the past four-plus years. There are rumors he is beginning to implement a quiet 'soft' mobilization so as not to spark further popular resentment, but given Ukraine's success to date in thwarting increased Russian and North Korean troop deployments with drones, mines and counterattacks, there is little reason to believe the corrupt Russian system is capable of - or interested in - change to correct that.
The question then is, what will Putin do when his latest mobilization fails? China has reportedly nixed the nuclear option so further sabotage and provocation to keep Europe off balance look like the most probable tactics. But if the US midterm elections this fall return the Congress and Senate to Democratic control, his options will be further limited by their support for Ukraine. Either way, the war's evident failure means he has to continue it or risk being overthrown and eliminated himself. JL
Mick Ryan reports in Futura Doctrina:
Putin is rapidly running out of options for achieving even his minimalist goals for Ukraine, which would be the capture of all of the Donbas. But even that appears increasingly unlikely for the Russian ground forces. Putin will hope that the injection of a few hundred thousand extra troops might get him over the line, but even that is a doubtful proposition given the increases in effectiveness we have seen the Ukrainians demonstrate in 2026. He could double down, do more mobilization and step up the use of chemical weapons or even i`ndicate his willingness to employ nuclear weapons. However, his nuclear sabre rattling in the past has not shifted Ukrainian determination to hold on to their territory. And NATO has now moved beyond being deterred by these kinds of threats.