Three Weeks Into Spring Offensive, Russia Has Actually Lost Territory

Historically, three weeks into a major offensive, the attacking military should have gained ground as the defenders struggle to reorganize and respond. But not so for the Russian army in Ukraine.

Three weeks into their spring offensive, they have actually lost ground to the Ukrainians, who are taking advantage of Russian predictability and weakness by opportunistically advancing themselves at points along the line where the Russians are weakest. JL

Phillips O'Brien reports in his substack:

The Russian spring offensive started around March 20, 2026. (But) the net amount of territory gained by Russia in that time is actually a net loss. During the first week, Russia gained. During the last week, the Russians lost territory. It is notable that three weeks into a large offensive, the Russians are losing ground. When you add that in March, the Ukrainians gained more territory than they lost even with the Russian Spring Offensive starting, overall the Russians are still losing more than they are taking. If the Russians are using their reserves and it gains them nothing, the initiative will return more and more to Ukraine. This failure (offers) echoes of Putin planning his 2022 victory parade in Kyiv

Ukraine's Secret Network of 3D Bomb Builders

In yet another example of Ukraine's entrepreneurial tech innovation, a network of volunteers is supporting the Ukrainian military by 3D printing parts for drone-delivered bombs and other weapons, as well as related components. 

The volunteers have produced 100 tons of manufactured plastic items in the past last year. JL

Kathryn Diss reports in the Australian Broadcasting Corporation:

A volunteer network that stretches across Europe, fills the gaps when supplies through official channels dry up. Last year, the network of 400 volunteers produced 100 tons of manufactured plastic items for Ukraine's military, including parts for ammunition and casings for bombs that are strapped to drones as well as safety switches and LED torches to antennas to help steer drones. "Everyone who volunteers is [a] civilian, so we don't work with explosives or detonators. We print the shell and then it gets sent to the military, where they add explosives, shrapnel and detonators to make a bomb." The printers, which quickly produce small parts en masse and can be adapted for new designs, have proved vital for Ukraine. "It's like an e-commerce website. Once they order something, it is sent to volunteers so they can manufacture it and send it directly to the soldiers."

Russian Armor Now Rarely Makes It To Front Due To Ukraine's 20Km Kill Zone

The extension of Ukraine's Drone Line to what is now a 20 kilometer 'robotic kill zone' has meant that Russian tanks, infantry fighting vehicles and other armored equipment 'rarely' makes it as far as the front line, let alone deployed in a position to attack Ukrainian,  defenses. 

The weapons and vehicles are almost always spotted, targeted and eliminated behind what is roughly conceived of as a front in historical terms, making the entire battle zone a gray area in which it has become impossible for the Kremlin to move large units - even if they had such formations at their disposal. For the same reason, evidence of Kremlin deployment of strategic reserves from elsewhere in Russia now reveal that Russian forces can be replenished, but not accumulated, all of which confirms the degradation of Russian military capacity. JL 

Yuri Zoria reports in the Euromaidan Press:

Russian heavy equipment usage has become limited across the front and the reason is structural. Due to the 20 kilometer kill zone, "Russian equipment usually doesn't get through, especially tanks and infantry fighting vehicles," reducing Russia's tank and IFV advantage from a battlefield asset to a logistics problem that sits 20 km away from the positions it was built to overrun. Ukraine's Drone Line, funded at $880 million and operational since March 2025, is creating " a robotic kill zone" with continuous drone coverage along assault corridors.

AI's Computing Power Demand Exhausts Global Supply, Constraining Growth

Electricity, water...and now computing power? The AI boom was projected to grow at infinity times 100 gazillion (a slight exaggeration...). That is, until the reality of how much existing data, electricity, water and now, computing power could be resourced in addition to new capacity to support the Silicon Valley hype machine growth fantasy. 

Yes, AI will be impactful and it will change many things about the way we work, make money and live, just as new technology has always done. But also just like transformational technologies of the past, there will be periods of delayed or slowed growth because the existing infrastructure cannot yet support it. Concerns about electricity have been extant for some time, based in part on simple calculations about the world's capacity to apply the components, building materials and people to construct the data centers required. Latterly, there has been a growing awareness of the fact that many of the data centers are being built in places with favorable tax and regulatory regimes - but which were already facing existential water shortages. Now, computing capacity availability is being cited as a constraint. The overall implication is that, in the real world, some growth takes time and that, in turn, affects the ability of an industry like AI to meet enthusiastic but, perhaps, overly optimistic, expectations. JL

Angel Au-Yeung and Robbie Whelan report in the Wall Street Journal:

The AI gold rush is rapidly drying up the supply of computing power. capacity crunch has forced companies to scuttle products and led to reliability problems. The issues are a warning sign for AI, as they limit the utility of new AI tools just as users have begun to rely on them. Companies have been scrambling to secure computing to serve a growing base of customers who are significantly increasing AI use. This is a classic problem in tech booms throughout history, from 19th-century railroad expansion to the internet of the early 2000s. Demand is growing far faster than companies are able to access resources and build out infrastructure. Token use in OpenAI’s API rose from six billion a minute in October to 15 billion a minute in late March. "Why don’t we just deploy more gear? Data center build times are long, the power that’s available through 2026 is already all spoken for.”

As Ukraine Ground and Air Drones Increase Impact, Russia Falters

The increasing ground and aerial drones Ukraine can deploy combined with the growing effectiveness of the machines and their operators has had a devastating effect on Russian force. This is contributing significantly to their ability to decimate Russian attacks while gaining ground with their own counters. JL

Mick Ryan reports Futura Doctrina:

Russia's spring offensive  continues to fall short, demonstrating that Russia is unable to seize the remainder of The Donbas in 2026. Russian ground forces are not making significant advances west of Hulyaipole. Ukrainian forces advanced on the Kupyansk, Slovyansk, Pokrovsk, and Hulyaipole axes during the week. Ukraine’s Forces continue to hold the strategic initiative, as unmanned systems units are “ inflicting significant and effective damage on Russian troops. For four months in a row, starting from December 2025,  drone units neutralised more enemy personnel than Russia recruits. This is attributed to domestic aerial drone production, improved operator skills, and organisational decisions by Ukrainian command. Ukrainian ground robots increased the number of completed tasks by more than 50% in March compared to February

Ukraine Attacks Force Russia To Use Strategic Reserves As Casualties Mount

The Kremlin is being forced to commit strategic national reserves from areas such as the border with China as Ukrainian attacks continue to disrupt Russia's putative spring offensive, inflicting casualties and gaining ground. 

This decision by the Kremlin is further evidence of the dire shape of the Russian military as it can no longer amass sufficient force to advance towards its announced objectives and must, instead, respond to the Ukrainian's initiative. JL

The Institute for the Study of War reports:

Ukrainian counterattacks in the Oleksandrivka and Hulyaipole directions are disrupting Russian efforts elsewhere in the frontline, including in the Pokrovsk area and the Fortress Belt, forcing the Russian military command to redeploy forces away from instead of toward their priority. They have made only limited advances near Hulyaipole in recent days despite reported Kremlin prioritization; rather, ISW has observed multiple instances of Ukrainian forces continuing to advance in this area. Russian forces appear to be deploying strategic reserves as Ukrainian forces continue to inflict increased casualty rates on Russia.

Innovating Faster and Scaling Harder, Ukraine Is Winning the Drone War

The Ukraine war narrative has changed decisively this winter and spring. No longer are western media publishing portentous warnings about Ukraine's impending doom. Instead, reports of relentless Ukrainian bombardments deep inside Russia which are disrupting its defense production and oil export capabilities are widespread.

The impetus for this has been the growing productivity and sophistication of not just Ukrainian defense industries, but their coordination with the military, leading to heightened effectiveness and efficiency which the Russians have been unable to match. JL

Igor Kossov reports in Euromaidan Press:

Ukrainian drones are on a winning streak. The assessment is coming from all directions — from Russian milbloggers to international military analysts to Ukrainian warfighters.  Multiple sources have recently posted that Ukrainian drones are flying farther, hitting more precisely, and are getting harder to stop. Military sources and analysts connect this trend to two factors: Ukraine having a more dynamic military-industrial system that's better for innovation and Kyiv learning to harness its fuller potential. The most dramatic results are coming from mid-range UAVs, which strike targets at distances between 20 and several hundred kilometers. This is wreaking havoc on Russian logistics, air defense, and other high-value targets.