The Kremlin Lost 350,000 Troops In 10 Months, Then Cut Signing Bonuses

The Kremlin's personnel math isn't working. too many Russians soldiers are dyng relative to the numbers that can by recruited - and those are simply becoming too expensive given the state of the Russian economy, even with China's support. 

It's not that the repressive Putin system will ever run out of bodies, but the financial strain creates another pressure point that Ukraine and the Europeans can apply. JL

The Geopolitical Worldview reports:

By mid-October, Russian personnel losses for 2026 alone were 350,260. September was the deadliest month of the year with 46,230 — the highest monthly figure of 2026. Meanwhile, Russia’s contract recruitment campaign, which was expected to bring in 409,000 new soldiers in 2026, had signed up 221,000 by late July. (Then) in September 2026, the Irkutsk region lowered its one-time signing bonus for new contract soldiers from 2.1 million rubles to 1.8 million. Mordovia cut its bonus to 800,000 rubles from 3 million. Sverdlovsk Oblast had cut its payout from 2.7 million to 2.5 million in May. The cuts are a signal; the recruitment system's financial incentives are beyond the fiscal capacity of the regions that administer them. The soldiers it does recruit are getting more expensive relative to their quality, paying more, for less, from dwindling budgets.

Why Trump Can't Get Putin To Make A Deal On Ukraine

Trump and his minions think they are negotiating a business deal with self-enrichment for the few individuals involved as its core. 

But that completely misreads the ego, vanity, resentments and pretensions to greatness of Putin and HIS minions for whom this is a reassertion of Russian power after the humiliation of the Soviet Union's fall. JL

Andreas Umland reports in The National Interest:

The American deal idea is futile, because it misreads the strategy, ideology, and internal logic of Russian President Vladimir Putin’s regime. Russia’s conduct in Ukraine is driven by historical myths, political resentment, pan-Russian ultranationalism, and fantasies of great-power status and territorial expansion. Economic interest is only part of the picture. Putin is therefore likely to reject the proposal as a basis for peace. For him, a gas deal would at most be the icing on the cake of Ukraine’s partial—or, better still, full—capitulation.

On the New Subterranean Front, Ukraine Is Now Winning

Hundreds of miles of now abandoned

natural gas pipelines have become a new subterranean battleground in Ukraine. 

First used by Russian troops as a means of infiltrating Ukrainian lines, the 2 meter high pipes now serve as a means for Ukrainian forces to ambush the Russians and are contributing to Kyiv's recent battlefield successes. JL

Simon Shuster reports in The Atlantic:

Ukraine's newest battlefield lies inside a network of steel pipes deep below the ground, some barely wide enough for a person to crawl through. Before the war, these pipes carried natural gas from Russia to Ukraine. Now soldiers zip through them on electric buggies, ambushing one another with machine-gun fire and rocket-propelled grenades. As of this week, after six months of underground warfare, the Khartiia Corps had seized back control of about nine miles of pipelines in northeastern Ukraine, part of an operation they code-named Veles, after the Slavic god of the underworld.

In October, Russian Forces Have Been Losing 7 Kilometers A Day

In September, Russian forces in Ukraine were losing an average of over two and half kilometers a day. In October, that rose to 7 kilometers lost - despite Elon Musk's cut-off of Starlink access, which may well have been precipitated in part by that growing number. 

This is no longer a stalemate, as the Kremlin's apologists are attempting to color it. The Russians are losing the war of attrition and show no capacity for changing results on the battlefield. JL

The World Strategist reports:

In September, In September Russia lost a net of 80.81 square kilometers of territory that it controlled — 2.69 square kilometers a day on average. By October Russian forces were losing an average of seven square kilometers a day. Not only has Russia’s offensive stalled. The spring-summer campaign failed, resulting in a net loss of Russian-controlled territory. It means Russia can’t take ground. Russia can penetrate, annoy, and demolish. It cannot annex and dominate large new territories. A quarter of a million dead or wounded for 174 square kilometers of Russian infiltrators' “presence” is not a breakthrough. It is a substitution for tone. This is not the math of a conquering army. It is the math of an army bleeding out

OpenAI Rushing $30 Billion Funding Round Before Anthropic's IPO

Games CFOs play. Both Anthropic and OpenAI are planning to go public in the next half year. They use different methods to quantify their financial results, but both are in the $50 to 70 billion annualized revenue range and have leapfrogged each other by increments of $5 billion, more or less. Both would like their IPO to be larger than the other, with the relative valuations at $1.4 to 2 trillion. 

Since they are essentially the only two horses in this race, it is not really clear to what degree such sophomoric supremacy claims matter. The same sovereign wealth funds and other ultra-wealthy sources of capital are investing in both. And it is not clear that either AI or customers will really care, either. But this is personal. OpenAI was first and has been stung by reports that Anthropic's models are preferred by businesses and other tech companies, inferring that OpenAI is the less operationally sophisticated 'public' model. That OpenAI is now trying to land a funding round in hopes it will diminish interest in Anthropic's IPO seems fanciful and, frankly, desperate, especially given OpenAI's legendary cash burn rate. JL

Cris Tolomia reports in Quartz:

OpenAI is rushing to line up investor backing for a $30 billion funding round ahead of rival Anthropic's anticipated stock market listing in mid-November. The round could value OpenAI at more than $1.4 trillion. Both companies are drawing on a similar pool of investors. Some investors read OpenAI's fundraising drive as a bid to secure money from funds that could otherwise put more toward Anthropic's IPO. OpenAI wants to close the round before Anthropic's financial disclosures invite side-by-side comparisons of the two businesses, putting OpenAI under pressure to explain how fast revenue is growing. OpenAI is telling investors that revenue on an annualized basis hit $50 billion and that it projects $70 billion by the close of the year. Anthropic's annualized revenue stood at around $65 billion in July

Russia's Rear Area Drone Operators Were Attacked By Armored Ukrainian Assaults

New details about Ukraine's Operation Vivaldi continue to come to light. In the latest, the 3rd Corps has revealed that Ukrainian troops in armored vehicles advanced almost five kilometers behind Russian lines to eliminate Russian drone crews and bases.

The Ukrainian armored units were able to do this because they received special training, their vehicles were upgraded and they were provided effective overwatch support from drone units. JL

Ryder Blackthorn reports in Frontline Signal:

New details reveal another part of Ukraine’s Operation Vivaldi: sending armored vehicles through Russian lines to reach the drone operators working behind them. In one assault, four armored vehicles crossed the frontline and delivered Ukrainian infantry near positions used by Russian drone crews. One vehicle was struck but remained operational and withdrew under its own power. In a separate assault, Ukrainian armor advanced 4.5 kilometers behind Russian lines. Infantry dismounted and attacked positions occupied by drone operators.  Armored vehicles can no longer be treated as reserves rushed forward whenever Russian forces break through. Their movement must be planned around the threats they’re likely to encounter. Infantry and vehicle crews trained separately, armored vehicles received additional equipment, and supporting units were coordinated to protect their movement.

Russians Suffer War Record Day Of Losses, Despite Ukraine's Starlink Block

Russian losses for October are on track to exceed 50,000 for the second month in a row. 

That is the monthly goal the Ukrainians set at the beginning of the year because even with new mobilization and recruitment of Central Asians, Africans and South Americans, would be extremely difficult, if not impossible, for the Kremlin to replace. JL

Stefan Korshak reports in the Kyiv Post:

Kremlin troops suffered record-breaking single-day losses for the entire Russo-Ukrainian War on Thursday. During the 24-hour period between Oct. 21-22, Russian forces suffered at least 2,250 men killed or seriously wounded in combat. The numbers broke the previous wartime record of 2,200 set in December 2024. Ukraine's units' say estimates of Russian losses are accurate because engagements and images of dead and wounded Russian soldiers are recorded in real time by drones. The record Kremlin losses were the result of heavy Russian infantry attacks in Donetsk aiming at Dobropilliya.