Ukrainian Advances In Multiple Sectors Confirmed As Russians' Attacks Stall

Ukrainian advances in multiple important sectors increasingly suggest that Russian troop strength challenges are turning into operational liabilities for the Kremlin. 

That so many Ukrainian successes are happening simultaneously reveals that the Russians no possess the reserves to redeploy sufficient units to meet Ukrainian attacks. JL

Liliana Oleniak reports in RBC-Ukraine:

Over the past few days, Ukrainian Forces have advanced in the Kharkiv, Donetsk, and Dnipropetrovsk regions. Furthermore, they have thwarted several Russian offensive operations. Ukrainian forces have recently advanced east of Sloviansk, north of Kharkiv, made advances west of Kotliarivka, towards Novopavlivka in Dnipropetrovsk oblast and routed Russian troops in the Kupiansk sector. 

Why Putin's "Friends" Are Now Confronting Him About the Ukraine War

Russia's economic friends, like India, Kazakhstan, Armenia and others are delivering subtle but unmistakable warnings to the Kremlin that his war in Ukraine is increasingly viewed globally as going badly for Russia, unwinnable and a threat to the economy of even those countries maintaining positive relations with it. 

Much of this is due to the war's impact on oil prices and other economic indicators. But it is also an appeal from those who value Russia as an offset to US power and who fear that Russia's impending failure and potential ensuing chaos is bad for stability. JL

Thomas Grove and Tripti Lahiri report in the Wall Street Journal:

Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi's momentary admonishment of Putin's Ukraine war marked a subtle shift in the tone that some of Moscow’s partners have struck with the Russian leader in recent months as the toll from the war, now in its fifth year, grows for Russia and its backers. A a month earlier, President Kassym-Jomart Tokayev of Kazakhstan, a Russian ally, confronted Putin with a similarly blunt message, saying he was hearing from many countries who were questioning why Russia was still waging the war. The chiding comes as the war’s pain is increasingly being felt inside and outside Russia. The Kremlin’s advances ib Ukraine have largely stalled with its forces taking heavy casualties. Ukraine has been steadily raising the cost for Moscow. “Concern is on the rise that escalation is spilling over to affect other countries and their economies,” 

CIA Director's Visit "To Warn" Moscow Viewed By Putin As Sign Of Weakness

The ostensible purpose of CIA Director John  Ratcliffe's visit to Moscow was to warn the Kremlin that, in the eyes of the US and NATO, Russia's position is deteriorating and that the time to negotiate is now. 

But in a subsequent assessment, confirming the Trump administration's repeated misreading of the Kremlin, Putin is reported to have viewed the trip as a sign of western weakness, causing him to redouble his attacks on Ukrainian civilian targets. This would appear to support the view of those who believe that Putin only respects strength. JL

Catherine Belton and colleagues report in the Washington Post:

In the 10 days since CIA Director John Ratcliffe made a rare, unexpected visit to Moscow, Russian forces have ramped up their missile and jet-powered-drone campaign targeting civilian infrastructure. “I have no doubt that the enemy will crumble,” Putin told Russian journalists. His remarks confirmed assessments that Ratcliffe’s visit not only failed to persuade the Russian leader to stop the war, but hardened his resolve to sidestep a ceasefire and continue to push Ukraine to concede to Moscow. Ratcliffe warned counterparts in Russian intelligence that escalating the war would backfire. He argued Russia’s position was weak and would deteriorate further. But after the meetings, Ratcliffe felt that he “had not moved the needle.” Russia viewed the visit as “an attempt to try to convince Putin to stop, but Putin read it as weakness.” 

Financial, Operational Disappointments More Likely To Slow AI Than Politics

The growing public opposition to AI generally and to the data centers that power them have understandably garnered most of the attention around technology now. 

But it is the financial and operational questions which remain unanswered that are most likely to slow AI's growth in the near term. The poll results on the left from a survey of CIO (Chief Information Officer) magazine reveal how 'aspirational' - to put it politely - those hoped-for outcomes remain after four years. The strain on tech companies' financials, the bond market melt-down and the 'murky' return on investment from historically extraordinary infrastructure and AI implementation investments all point to the growing demand for a pause until the uncertainty which business abhors becomes a more well-defined path to profitability. JL

Asa Fitch reports in the Wall Street Journal:

There is some chance that political forces could slow AI’s development. Anti-AI sentiment is becoming increasingly serious, and moratoria on data-center development in the U.S. are growing. Even so, the prospect of political action that actually holds back the development of AI seems distant at best. The more likely scenario is that the natural forces of the boom slow it. AI is putting major strains on the U.S. power grid and raising electricity prices. AI spending is encountering more resistance. Some big tech companies that have fueled the boom are free-cash-flow negative because of their AI outlays. Prices of corporate bonds linked to AI are falling as tech companies raise more debt to grow their infrastructure. And returns on AI spending are still murky nearly four years into the boom. Development will have to slow if it becomes clearer that companies can’t make back what they are spending.

"Piles of Dead Russians" Line Approaches To Ukraine's Dobropillia Defenses

It has become a commonplace of this war that the Russian military is not a learning organization. While some may disregard this as a bit of irrelevant contemporary consultant-speak, the tangible reality has become evident (again...) at Pokrovsk, where hundreds of Russian bodies litter the ground in front of extensive Ukrainian defenses replete with razor wire, tank traps, ditches and lines designed to funnel the unwary into kill zones. 

And where did the Ukrainians learn this concept? Why, from the Russians' own "Surovikin Lines," named for the Russian general who in 2023 created the defensive obstacles that stopped Ukraine's southern offensive in its tracks. So not only do the Russians refuse to learn from the Ukrainians, they refuse to learn from their own successes. This is not, in any field of human endeavor, a recipe for achieving desired results. JL

RFU News reports:

In the Pokrovsk sector, recent footage by Ukraine's Rubizh brigade shows a small stretch of land filled with killed Russian soldiers. The Russians are failing here on Pokrovsk's flanks because dead Russian soldiers are piled up against lines of concrete blocks and razorwire. Extensive defenses counter both Russian armored and infiltration assaults, delaying enemy movement to allow Ukrainian defenders the time to eliminate threats. In trying to cut open a path through the razor wire, the Russians created a narrow corridor that Ukrainians were able to concentrate their fire onto; creating the kill zone that resulted in disastrous losses for the Russians. This means the Russians have failed to find a way into the Ukrainian fortress town of Dobropillia, and are losing hundreds of men in narrow chokepoints in trying to outflank it.

Ukraine Sea Drones Hit Putin-Favorite Sochi Resort For 1st Time

Ukraine hit the exclusive Black Sea resort of Sochi with sea drones for the first time, striking and damaging a Russian ship in the harbor.

Since Tsarist times Sochi has been a favored vacation spot for Russian elites and current President Putin is a regular visitor. That the Ukrainians launched the attack in broad daylight rather than at night as they usually do for sea drone attacks was clearly intended for it to be seen and to send a message to the Russian oligarchy that nowhere they may want to travel in their country is now safe from Ukrainian attack. JL

Howard Altman reports in The War Zone:

Ukraine  carried out one of its farthest uncrewed surface vessel (USV) attacks from Ukrainian shores, striking the Nefrit, a multipurpose offshore vessel, in the Russian Black Sea resort city of Sochi. The seaside getaway is located about 350 miles on a direct line from the nearest Ukrainian-held territory, but the trip is a lot longer if originating from Ukrainian-held shores. This marks the first known USV attack on this city that Russian President Vladimir Putin often visits. That the attack occurring during broad daylight is also interesting, as Ukraine has often taken advantage of the cover of darkness for USV strike operations on port facilities. There was no immediate response from the Kremlin. 

Moscow Airports Cancel Flights 2nd Night After Ukraine Drone Attack Warning

The point here is to further impress upon the Russian people, especially the elites who value their ability to travel, that Putin's war is now threatening their lives, to say nothing of their way of life.

Ukraine is making it clear that it can and will follow through on its threats. JL

Chris York reports in the Kyiv Independent:

Flights in and out of Moscow's Vnukovo and Sheremetyevo airports were restricted for the second night in a row on Sept. 2, after Ukraine warned of a new campaign to "close" Russian skies. "Temporary restrictions on the arrival and departure of aircraft have been introduced," Russia's Federal Air Transport Agency (Rosaviatsia) said. President Zelensky on Sept. 1 warned airlines, insurers, and foreign governments that Russian airspace "will be de facto closed" because of Ukrainian drones. Live tracking of arrivals at Sheremetyevo Airport showed almost every flight scheduled for the afternoon of Sept. 3 either delayed or canceled. A similar situation was reported at Vnukovo Airport.