As Losses Become Irreplaceable, Russia Copies Ukraine - More Drones, Less People

As the scale the losses they are suffering render them irreplaceable without the general mobilization the Kremlin wishes to avoid due to its unpopularity, the Russian command is copying - again - from Ukraine's strategy by increasing the use of drones to supplant the paucity of new recruits. 

Ukraine has successfully implemented this strategy, which has been particularly successful this winter and early spring. Russia's winter and spring offensives were both stopped with heavy casualties, inflicted primarily by drones. Russia is now attempting a special drone operator recruitment drive and trying to increase the number of its drone sorties. There has yet to be a notable increase in effectiveness. JL

Yevhen Kizilov reports in Ukraine Pravda and Dmitri Kuznets reports in the Carnegie Russia Eurasia Center :

Russian forces have increased the use of drones while deploying fewer personnel. "We see more drone operations, but fewer actions involving personnel. We believe the enemy faces challenges. There are issues with the training of their troops." Russian losses between 1 January and 26 March amounted to 89,000 personnel killed or severely wounded. The scale of Russia’s losses begs the question: Does Russia have sufficient human resources to compensate for losses? Russian authorities are unlikely to significantly increase the current size of the armed forces or the recruitment rate. (In addition to those already reported) by the end of 2025, 90,000 requests to have missing servicemen declared dead had been lodged with Russian courts.

To Scale Air Defense, Private Ukraine Firms Form, Shoot Down First Russian Drones

Russia's relentless assault on Ukraine's civilian energy and electricity infrastructure this winter failed to break Ukrainians' spirit. But it did reveal the need for improved air defenses.

Rather than complain about the chronic shortage of air defense assets - which reflects a nearly universal problem from Europe to Russia - Ukraine has again innovated by giving businesses the ability to form their own air defense units, integrated into the national air defense command. The idea is that competition w foster innovation and perhaps generate better air defense concepts while also contributing to overall safety and freeing soldiers to focus on the frontline. The first such operational team, in Kharkiv, has already shot down Russian drones. JL

Mariia Boltryk reports in the Kyiv Post:

The first company participating in a government-backed private air defense project has destroyed Shahed and Zala drones in the Kharkiv region. Ukraine`s government allowed enterprises to form air defense groups. The project primarily invites critical infrastructure operators in energy, communications, transport, and water supply. new air defense units are being formed simultaneously at 14 enterprises. The project is also designed to open up the air defense market and foster competition. The private air defense units are integrated into the Ukrainian Air Force’s unified command-and-control system. This allows rapid scaling of air defense capabilities without straining frontline resources. 

Ukraine Has Stopped Russia's Spring Offensive Which Won't Break Through This Year

Spring officially commenced only a week ago, but Russia's spring-summer offensive is already being deemed a failure. 

Aside from Ukraine's enhanced defensive capabilities - accomplished largely by itself - the most significant aspect of these increasingly similar and numerous conclusions is that Russia is incapable of sustaining sufficient reinforcements to maintain adequate offensive operations, let alone break through anywhere. JL

Yuri Zoria reports in Euromaidan Press:

Russia's spring-summer 2026 offensive is struggling against Ukraine's Fortress Belt in Donetsk Oblast. Russian forces remain unlikely to seize the fortified defensive line this year, with a direct push on Sloviansk already stalled and flanking forces advancing even more slowly. Russia's war continues to consume manpower at unsustainable rates, with Moscow unable to rebuild losses and generate reserves needed for offensives. Ukrainian drone defenses, fortifications, and the sheer attrition of Russian assaults continue to constrain it's ability to translate numerical advantage into territorial breakthroughs. The slowing pace of operations suggests Russian forces cannot sustain the intensity of  earlier pushes.

States Are Embracing AI Regulation, Defying Tech Industry and White House

Has Big Tech finally overplayed its hand? Having lost two separate and deeply significant cases about liability for content in federal court last week, the industry is increasingly being confronted by states - even in conservative southern and western regions - over the threat posed by AI. 

Between data centers, electricity costs, child safety, intellectual property, privacy, as well as the loss of millions of jobs which the industry has unwisely touted as one of AI's premier benefits, the cascade of concerns about AI by otherwise tech indifferent and apolitical Americans is skyrocketing, to the point where state legislatures are passing dozens of bills regulating the technology. And as if the perceived threats to individuals' safety and livelihood weren't enough, the high-handed disdain of billionaire tech bros to those concerns has further inflamed the issue. That the industry has obsequiously fallen all over itself to kowtow to the Trump administration has added to the growing negative public reaction (Amazon's $75 million 'investment' in an adoring movie about Trump's wife, Melania, being merely the most craven) and to a sense that this White House is favoring the industry over the voters. Twenty-five years after dotcom, with every company now being dependent on tech and almost every individual wielding a smartphone, the populace understands both the good and the bad. They are no longer willing to take the industry's word for anything, believing, based on hard-won experience, that it is almost entirely self-serving. The result is increasing demand for regulation - and the states are responding. JL

Cecelia Kang reports in the New York Times:

The battle over who should regulate A.I. is turning into an epic clash, as anxiety soars over its effects on jobs, education, national security and child safety. States have increasingly taken matters into their own hands, introducing dozens of bills this year to put guardrails around A.I. More than 100 state laws ban chatbots for young users, mandate system testing for security risks and protect copyrighted materials from scraping into A.I. systems. The fight has taken on new vehemence as power-guzzling data centers and rising electricity costs, as well as A.I.’s disrupting the broader economy, have taken center stage in elections. OpenAI, Google and Meta have thrown hundreds of millions of dollars for candidates favorable to the industry. Trump has made it clear US companies should have free rein in A.I., and that state rules hold them back. "They don’t want Big Tech inconvenienced.”

10,000 Casualties In 2 Weeks, No Gains: The Kremlin Strategy Causing 2026 Failure

Two weeks into what was being called Russia' spring-summer offensive, it is already being labelled a failure. Even for a war in which rapid change is the norm, this quick verdict is unusual - and noteworthy. 

The core problem lies not on the frontline but in the Kremlin because the issue is that the political strategy is not in sync with the real needs of the Russian military. The Kremlin demands that the military attack constantly in order to impress the rest of the world, but does not have sufficient economic backing for providing more and better weapons nor does it seem interested in actually learning the lessons of this war and then reflecting them in structural reorganization, from leadership to training to tactics. The result is more of the same: mass attacks by underarmed and undertrained soldiers who are slaughtered, which only serves to further discourage the rest of the population to sign up. The Ukrainians are grateful for this ineffective approach. JL 

Stavros Atlamazoglou reports in The National Interest:

Russia's attack has already cost the Kremlin 10,000 casualties, with little to show for it in territorial gains. Russia’s offensive will fail to achieve a breakthrough because the Kremlin has not addressed structural shortcomings, including the effectiveness of its armed forces, as well as the capacity of the country’s defense industry to match the insatiable demands of the conflict. The Kremlin’s constant pressure for offensive operations across the front does not sufficiently address issues of organization, tactics, and training. Russia is trapped in a vicious loop of repetitive frontal assaults and casualties. The type of warfare that could make a difference needs time, space, mobility and capabilities to pull off. But the Kremlin’s strategy does not allow these conditions.

Russia Steps Up Iran Aid To Salvage Damaged Repute Despite US Ukraine Risk

This past week, one of the US Air Force's valuable and strategically critical AWACs electronic early warning planes was destroyed by an Iranian missile while stationed at a Saudi air base. The targeting information on the plane is widely reported to have been provided to Iran by Russia. 

This incident is one of many recently in which Russia has directly confronted the US despite the Kremlin's desire to keep Trump on its side in support of its invasion of Ukraine. The reason for the change appears to be a desire to salvage what is left of its damaged reputation as a global power since the US has aggressively attacked countries in its network of alliances. The Russian diplomatic calculus is changing as its war in Ukraine has largely faltered and it looks beyond that to its broader standing in the world. It may still hope to keep Trump's tacit support, given his shared interest in authoritarian rule, but it may also be determining that the challenge to its standing is too severe and must be aggressively addressed, no matter the short-term regional impact. JL

Thomas Grove reports in the Wall Street Journal:

Russia has stepped up its support for Iran, its closest partner in the Middle East, providing satellite imagery and drone technology to help Iran target U.S. forces. Moscow is trying to salvage what’s left of its shrinking web of partnerships that once made it the world’s second-largest arms exporter behind the U.S., and a backer of dictatorships from the Middle East to Latin America. Earlier in Trump’s second term, Russia appeared reluctant to confront the U.S. directly as it tried to keep the Trump administration largely on the sidelines of the war in Ukraine (but) the increasing conflict between Trump’s expansive foreign policy and the Kremlin’s own footholds across the globe has triggered calls inside Russia to deal with the U.S. more aggressively. 

It's 2 Weeks Into Russia's Spring Offensive - But It's Ukraine Gaining Ground

It is, admittedly, confusing. Theoretically, when you launch an offensive, your troops are the ones who are supposed to gain ground, not your opponents.' But that is not what has happened this year in Ukraine. 

It is the Ukrainians who are gaining territory, not the supposedly attacking Russians. The reasons for this scenario are reported to be significantly strengthened Ukrainian defenses - including an effectively functioning 'drone wall,' decreasingly trained and motivated Russian troops who have now had four years to hear the rumors about what happens to soldiers in the Russian army forced to serve in Ukraine (none of it inspiring) and, that the Ukrainians anticipated where and when the Russian offensive would take place, so acted first and cut it off. As the article below suggests, Ukraine may now actually have the opportunity to start an irreversible decline of the Russian military. JL

Phillips O'Brien reports in his substack:

Starting March 17, in a four day period, the Russians launched more than 600 assaults across the front. (But) Russian gains have been non existent, both during the last two weeks when they have been attacking, and before. Leading into March, the Ukrainians actually recaptured over 100 square miles of land. Many factors seem to be stopping the Russian offensive. The Russians have run into very well prepared Ukrainian defenses: minefields, fortifications, and, an increasingly effective drone wall. Soldiers (even more poorly trained and motivated than in the recent past) make bloody assaults for little/no gain. The tactics are resulting in such high losses and low morale that the casualties the Russians are suffering averaged over 1000 per day. Ukraine has a chance to put the Russian army into a spiral of decline out of which it will be hard to pull out.