Russia's January Oil Revenue Plunged 50% As Europe Hits Shadow Tankers

Russia's oil revenue dropped 50% in January as Europe has tightened the net on shadow tankers illegally attempting to transport the Kremlin's oil.

The drop is so significant that questions are being raised about whether the Kremlin can negotiate a ceasefire before its economy collapses. JL

Catherine Belton reports in the Washington Post:

Europe is tightening the net on Russian oil being shipped through its waters, squeezing Moscow’s ability to fund its war even as officials and business executives in Russia fear the window is narrowing to reach a peace deal before the economy deteriorates. Russian oil revenue plummeted by 50 percent in January compared with the same month the previous year after tough new sanctions imposed by the U.S. Treasury on Russian oil majors Rosneft and Lukoil in October. The penalties forced Moscow to accept ever-steeper discounts of more than $20 per barrel for its oil.

Russian Advances Down To 15 Meters, 1,000 Casualties A Day

For Americans, 15 meters is 49 feet or 16 yards. So yeah, you could practically spit from here to there (almost). 

And if you were Russian, it would cost you 1,000 dead and wounded buddies a day. JL

RFU News reports:

The unlikelihood of Russia achieving a breakthrough is further reinforced by Ukraine’s defensive posture, because while Russia struggles to advance with more than 15 meters per day, Ukrainian forces are constructing hundreds of meters of massive, modern defense lines. With over 2,000 kilometers, these fortifications are being built faster than Russian troops can advance.  One and a half years and more than 100,000 dead soldiers are still not enough for the Russians to capture Pokrovsk. Kramatorsk is 4 times the size of Pokrovsk, while Sloviansk is almost 4 times bigger than Myrnohrad, which means that Russia would hardly be able to capture them even within the next two years.

AI Fears Battering Techs Stocks Due To Software Displacement Concerns

Irrational exuberance has turned into what may be irrational depression for investors who suddenly appear to believe that AI will displace corporate software contracts that have supported the industry. 

Whether these fears are real or exaggerated remains to be seen but prudent investors are certain paying to both possibilities. JL

Andrew Sorkin and colleagues report in the New York Times:

Fears that artificial intelligence will disrupt the industry appear to be growing, as investors reckon with the severity and breadth of that shake-up. Software and services companies lost about $300 billion in market value on Tuesday after the release of more A.I.-driven automation tools by Anthropic, the maker of the Claude chatbot. The worry is that these tools, which can handle some legal, marketing and customer-service tasks, could replace many current offerings. Investors in the U.S. and Europe during the past two weeks have been steadily reducing their exposure to software stocks. 

47 Russians Died For Every Ukrainian Last Month

47 Russians for every Ukrainian death does not seem like a sustainable mathematical equation for the Kremlin, which is why Putin has tried to freeze the Ukrainians out by attacking their gas and electrical infrastructure in the depth of winter. 

But that appears to have failed as it has made Ukrainians even more determined to resist. Meanwhile, Russians, Kenyans, Egyptians, Sri Lankans and any other victim of poverty hoping for some cash continue to die, mostly for Putin's ego. JL

Kieran Kelly reports in The Telegraph: 

35,000 Russian soldiers were killed last month alone, suggesting that 47 Russians dies for every Ukrainian killed. Russian commanders are aware of the casualties such attacks produce. Poorly trained convicts and mobilised troops are often among those sent forward first. Wave after wave is used to probe and exhaust Ukrainian defences. “They don’t count the people who die. We are forced to. To conquer eastern Ukraine would cost them 800,000 more corpses of their soldiers. It will take them at least two years, with very slow progress. In my opinion, they won’t last that long.”

Pace, Effectiveness of Russian Assaults In January Was Half of December's

Analysis of Russian offensive operations in the first month of 2026 reveals that even though the number of assaults did not decrease, their pace and effectiveness in achieving goals was half that of December 2025.

What this suggests is that Russian frontline units are exhausted materially and psychologically, lacking equipment, food, warm clothing and reinforcements, all essential to successful war fighting but evidently beyond the capability of the Kremlin to provide. JL

Denys Popovych reports in New Voice of Ukraine:

The pace of Russian offensive operations in January is actually half of December’s level, even though the number of assaults carried out by the Russian army in January did not decrease. Their activity has not declined, but their offensive capabilities have weakened; they have become twice as ineffective. This indicates that the Russian army is currently exhausted and needs regrouping and reinforcements. 

"Skin and Bones:" Hunger Is Ravaging Russian Frontline Units in Ukraine

The ongoing dysfunction of Russian logistics has apparently gotten so bad that intercepted radio and phone calls reveal widespread reports of hunger and, in some cases, starvation among Russian units on the front lines in Ukraine. 

Though not good for already questionable morale, Russian troops are accustomed to a level of deprivation that would be inconceivable for western forces, so the question is to what degree this is contributing to the Russian military's continued underperformance as the fifth year of the war approaches. JL

Julia Struck reports in the Kyiv Post:

Russian soldiers are complaining that they are starving on the front lines in Ukraine, according to an intercepted phone call obtained by Ukrainian military intelligence.  “Military intelligence has received further confirmation of the collapse of the Russian army’s logistics system: infantry units have been left without proper food and supplies for a long time. I saw five comrades starving to death in a nearby forest.” 

Buying Shares In Hot Pre-IPO AI Companies Is Complex, Risky, Very Expensive

Everyone would love to get in on the hot private AI companies that are making pre-IPO noises. 

The problem is that it is very hard to do - cuz who really really wants to share their potential windfall with you or me? - and if you can find access, the associated fees may end up costing more than the expected profits. But in an industry where FOMO rules, demand continues to surge. JL

Jason Zweig reports in the Wall Street Journal:

Who wouldn’t want to get an early stake in the companies creating the future like OpenAI, SpaceX or Anthropic? But you're more likely to be struck by lightning than you are to buy shares directly in most pre-IPO companies. Regulations discourage private companies from taking on more than 2,000 shareholders of record. And you have to be an accredited investor with $1 million in net assets, excluding your primary residence, or at least $200,000 in individual or $300,000 in joint income. The most common form of access is often called a special-purpose vehicle with upfront fees that could be 5% to 12% or more. Some also charge performance fees that take 10% to 30% of any gains. The promise of this market is great. So far, the perils are even greater.