Russia Being Pushed Back In Region Where It Stopped Ukraine's 2023 Offensive

If some of the place names being bandied about from Ukraine's current southern counteroffensive sound familiar, that is because they are: much of the fighting is occurring around the sites of Ukraine's disappointing 2023 offensive. 

The difference is that the Ukrainians are now much better armed and organized. They are pushing the Russians back over ground with which they are familiar and using their hard-won knowledge to thwart the Kremlin's forces with some of the same tactics they faced three years ago. JL

Decimus reports in Daily Kos:

Ukraine learned some very hard lessons from its failed 2023 counteroffensive in Zaporizhia.  And is now serving it back to the Russians in double measure. The much anticipated Ukrainian counteroffensive, for whatever reason, was slow in coming.  Russian General Surovikin used the time to make his defensive lines more formidable.  Those elaborate multi-layered lines with miles of dense frontal mine fields, enfilading firing positions and hardened dugouts backed by Ka-52 “Alligator” helicopters are still visible in the above map.  A new name had entered military history … the Surovikin Line. Just as it was for the Ukrainians in the summer of 2023, the Russians have run smack dab into the Ukrainian defensive rock wall in the very same area

Ukraine's Counteroffensive Disrupted Russia's Donetsk Advance For This Year

The Kremlin's plan to take all of Donetsk this year was never considered realistic given Russian forces weaknesses - especially the lack of a strategic reserve to continue attacking in small units, let alone exploit hypothetical breakthroughs. But Ukraine's southern counteroffensive, which has forced the Russians to redeploy troops from Donetsk to the south has now all but cancelled the Kremlin's Donetsk hopes. 

The Ukrainians' counteroffensive continues, largely because the ostensible Russian advances of the past year have often been by small groups of soldiers who are frequently not in communication with each other. This has made them easy for the Ukrainians to roll up. Since the lack of a significant reserve makes such setbacks more dangerous than they might have been a year or two ago, the Ukrainians are in a position to keep pushing the Russians, thereby forcing the Kremlin to reassess what is possible for their depleted units. JL

Alex Stezhensky reports in New Voice of Ukraine:

Ukrainian forces' counteroffensive on the southern front that has already disrupted Russian plans for the coming (year). The counteroffensive has produced “tactical, operational and strategic effects.” Russia’s Dnepr group has effectively halted its offensive near Orikhiv and south of Zaporizhzhya. The 400 square kilometers captured so far includes territories that had never officially been recognized as lost —  where only small Russian groups had entered. Drone reconnaissance discovered the map did not match reality: Russian forces controlled a much smaller area than they believed. Russian counterattack attempts failed. Collapse of Russia's broader summer offensive is 'coming into view' and the Kremlin’s ambition to fully capture Donetsk Oblast will not be realized this year.

Big Tech Is Backing Anthropic In Fight Against White House

Despite images of senior tech executives falling all over themselves to pledge fealty in the early days of the Trump administration, the Pentagon's retaliation against Anthropic has resulted in an unprecedented display of anger and defiance from the industry, which views the White House - Pentagon action as a 'capricious temper tantrum' from officials largely unschooled in AI which threatens US preeminence in technology. 

This is especially true given the degree to which the US military has relied on Anthropic's AI to pursue its attacks on Iran - and the understanding that no other AI - including OpenAI's - is as effective. This suggests that tech is growing increasingly uncomfortable with the current administration's use of these tools and may effect how they are developed in the future. JL

Kali Hays reports in the BBC:

Since Monday, a slew of America's biggest tech companies -  Google, Amazon, Apple and Microsoft - have publicly supported Anthropic's legal action to overturn Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth's unprecedented decision to label it a "supply chain risk". In legal filings, the tech giants expressed concerns about the government's retaliation against Anthropic after it refused to let its tools be used in mass surveillance and autonomous weapons and could cause "broad negative ramifications for the entire technology sector." A tech advocacy group, representing Google, Apple, Amazon, Nvidia and many other tech companies, said they shared concerns over the government punishing Anthropic and called the department (action) little more than a "temper tantrum". Former high ranking US military officials filed a brief, saying the government label "risks capricious retaliation for voicing disagreement".

Neo-Nazi Paramilitary Groups Supported By Kremlin Fight For Russia In Ukraine

Not a surprise, given the often barbaric behavior of Russian troops in Ukraine, but it is interesting to see it discussed explicitly in a news source at least tolerated, if not approved, by the Kremlin. JL

The Moscow Times reports:

Rusich, a neo-Nazi paramilitary unit, is battling alongside Russian troops in Ukraine. It has earned a reputation for brutality, despite President Vladimir Putin having sent troops into Ukraine with the stated goal of “denazifying” the country. Kremlin-loyal nationalist groups have become increasingly active since the invasion of Ukraine and the views they espouse have become more visible in public. The Rusich Telegram channel, which has 243,000 subscribers, has repeatedly posted calls to kill Ukrainian servicemen instead of taking them as prisoners of war and to rape Ukrainian women. Among Russian military personnel - especially GRU Spetsnaz and airborne troops - far-right views and a culture of violence and sadism are widespread.

To Train AI, Drone Models, Ukraine Offers Battlefield Data To Allies

In another example of its increasing military dominance, Ukraine has announced that it will offer its extensive and valuable battlefield data - including videos - to help allies train their AIs, particularly for drone warfare. Given the US's tenuous relationship with Ukraine and its growing favoritism for Russia, it is not clear whether this offer will be extended to the US military.

It is likely that no other nation today has as much current warfare data available. JL

Will Shanklin reports in Engadget:

Ukraine's four-year war with Russia has made it the world leader in battlefield drone technology. The data it collects has become one of the country's most valuable assets. On Thursday, Ukraine said it will begin sharing its battlefield data with allies to train drone AI software. Ukraine has a platform that will safely train partners' AI models without providing sensitive data. The system is said to provide continually updating datasets, including large volumes of photos and videos. "Partners get the opportunity to train their AI models on real data from modern warfare. And [for] Ukraine: faster development of autonomous systems and new technological solutions for the front."

Ukraine Has Inflicted More Losses On Russia Vs New Recruits For 3 Months Straight

For the third consecutive month, Ukrainian forces have inflicted more losses on Russia than the Kremlin has able to replace with new recruits and conscripts. 

This is important for several reasons: first, it demonstrates that Russia is no longer in a position to advance significantly because it does not possess the troop strength or weaponry to break through. Second, it reveals that Ukrainian defenses and tactics have become even stronger and more effective. And thirdly, it confirms that Ukraine's publicly announced strategy of inflicting more casualties than replacements on Russia is working as intended, which is additional evidence of managerial intelligence and implementation. JL

Yulia Zavadska reports in the Kyiv Post and Demian Shevko reports in New Voice of Ukraine:

Russian military losses have exceeded the number of new recruits joining the Russian army for three consecutive months Despite mobilizing 40,000–43,000 people each month, Russia is losing up to 45,000 troops due to desertions, battlefield casualties, and the growing effectiveness of Ukrainian drone technologies. Russian battlefield losses in January exceeded the occupying army’s ability to replenish its forces by 9,000 troops. Documents indicate a shift in the ratio of killed to wounded troops: out of total losses, 62% are killed and 38% wounded. “The Kremlin has no intention of stopping offensive actions, although it is suffering significant losses on the battlefield, which for three months in a row have exceeded the number of reinforcements joining the Russian army.” 

Anthropic's Standoff With Pentagon Has Provided Talent War Advantage

Anthropic may have lost $200 million in Pentagon contracts, but perhaps not surprisingly, it has become the darling of the tech (and especially AI) world for its principled stance. 

At least two senior OpenAI executives have quit since that company signed what many seem to believe is a craven deal with the DoD that has now caused its leadership to pivot into damage control over what is perceived to be its sell-out. Tech was, back in the dotcom days, a haven for people who claimed to have values and principles. That image has become tarnished over the years, but AI may be a new source of such behavior. When Meta attempted to raid Anthropic last summer and threw vast sums around, Anthropic refused to change its compensation and ended up losing only two people. This fight, like the war with Iran that Anthropic's models have helped manage, could be a long one. JL

Meghan Bobrowsky reports in the Wall Street Journal:

Anthropic's standoff with the Defense Department has cost it a customer, but has brought an advantage in the talent war between rival AI labs. High-level employees have resigned from OpenAI, citing values principles, since it reached deal with the Pentagon. OpenAI’s recent defections offer a reminder that values have frequently trumped money for the most sought-after prospects. A group of employees of OpenAI and Google DeepMind filed a brief asking the court to side with Anthropic in its suit against DoD. Last summer, Meta mounted an aggressive campaign to woo researchers and engineers from rival labs including OpenAI, Anthropic, dangling compensation worth hundreds of millions of dollars. Anthropic told employees it wasn’t going to alter compensation to respond to Meta. It lost only two employees to Meta, versus “several dozen” from OpenAI.