Fearing Ukraine Drones, Putin Cancels Naval Day Parade For 2nd Year In Row

A picture may be worth a thousand words, but when you are trying to project military power, posing in front of a picture of a nuclear submarine doesn't quite convey the same menace after you've cancelled a parade of 200 ships because you're afraid of Ukrainian drones which you know you cannot defend against. JL

Wiktoria Gucia reports in The Daily Beast:

Vladimir Putin scrapped Russia's Navy Day parade over fears of Ukrainian strikes and then raged to a group of sailors about a revenge fantasy and Soviet dictator Josef Stalin. After canceling the parade—which was set to feature 200 warships sailing along the Neva River in St. Petersburg—the president opted for a televised meeting with Navy personnel. In place of reviewing actual warships, Russian sailors poised in front of a large photo of a submarine. 

Russian Battlefield Losses, Crimean Threat, Deepen Putin's Strategic Risk

Ukraine has exposed Putin's failings as a military strategist by simultaneously destroying his troops and armor at the front, degrading his logistics behind them and attacking the military-economic infrastructure inside Russia itself.

The Russian dictator's problem is that he cannot defend all of them simultaneously, especially as Ukraine continues to strike air defense assets which are difficult to replace. The result is that whichever of his resources or forces he tries to protect exposes the vulnerability of the others, reducing the impact of all and miring his war in a reactive, defensive crunch. JL

Mick Ryan reports in Futura Doctrina:

Russia is facing a deepening strategic dilemma It's gains for 2026 have tapered off to a handful of kilometres, significantly less than the preceding two years. Ukraine’s deep strike campaign is forcing Russian air defences to disperse across a vast arc from occupied Ukraine through the Caucasus into the Russian interior. The destruction of Russian air defence assets compounds this. The Crimea and Azov campaigns are degrading occupied Crimea’s logistics, power grid and support to Russian operations against Ukraine. Russia cannot protect Crimea, secure Azov shipping and shield its interior energy and industrial base simultaneously. Ukraine’s strategy compounds Russia’s problems by choosing targets that are cheap to strike and expensive to defend, forcing Russia into a permanently reactive posture. Every resource Putin commits to defending Crimea or Russia's infrastructure from Ukrainian strikes is not available to sustain offensive operations at the front.

Ukraine Is Converting Drone Dominant Attrition Into Regained Territory

Ukrainian forces are in the process of redefining the meaning of combined arms warfare, and as they do so, are demonstrating that attritional attacks on logistics can be converted into territorial gains. 

Russia's losses this spring and summer on various fronts - Kupiansk, Zaporizhzhia, Kostiantynivka, Dobropillia, et al - are evidence of how this strategy is working. The effective application of technology, from a multitude of aerial drones designed for specific tasks, and even the introduction of ground drones which are becoming autonomous 'small tanks' are forcing the Russians to cede ground as they are unable to defend what they have, let alone concentrate the necessary strength to attack. JL

Brian Wang reports in Next Big Future and Rojoef Manuel reports in The Defense Post:

Ukraine's drone campaign is systematically degrading Russian logistics at operational depth. The next qualitative jump - from high-volume semi-autonomous strikes to coordinated packs and true swarms - force Russian routing or collapse of sustainment on a decisive axis. Coordinated packs or  swarms hold throughput on a critical corridor (R-280 and approaches to Crimea) below the sustainment threshold for several weeks. Russian units on that axis experience acute shortages of fuel, ammunition, and replacements. Ukrainian forces exploit the resulting weakness with artillery, drones, and mechanized pushes, including mounting weapons on unmanned ground vehicles to create mobile “small tanks.” The sector begins to unravel, forcing Russian redeployments that open further opportunities. It is the conversion of drone logistics dominance into regained territory and a shift from pure attrition to limited maneuver.

On Opposing Chinese AI In US, It's Anthropic and OpenAI Vs Everyone Else

Let's be clear: this is not about philosophy or information wanting to be free. This is about money. Primarily, who gets to control profits from AI. 

After struggling to get uptake from business customers, the market finally began to demonstrate more acceptance of AI, so OpenAI and Anthropic then did what Silicon Valley has usually done, which is to overcharge customers, in this case, through the token payment system. The market then did what markets do, which is to seek similar performance for lower cost (Econ 1), including from Chinese tech companies for whom this is a financial model they have perfected over decades of experience. The big AI companies then cried foul, as if excess profits were somehow guaranteed them in the Constitution and tried to get the current US administration - upon whom they have been lavishing extraordinary gifts for two years (the Melania documentary biopic paid for by Amazon...among other obvious bribes) and screeching about national security, as if they wouldn't sell their mothers for another quarterly uptick - to go along. But a funny thing happened on the way to AI oligarchy: the markets have become skeptical of the incessant and probably unsustainable financial demands for more data centers, etc, so have pulled back, forcing OpenAI, for instance, to go to Nvidia - an open source champion - to provide a backstop. Which means that open source, which will lead to an expanding market not totally controlled by a few companies, will likely prevail. JL

Mike Isaac and colleagues report in the New York Times:

OpenAI and Anthropic have lobbied Washington about Chinese open-source A.I. models. The fight stems from China’s rapid progress in open-source A.I, which are free. In recent weeks, Chinese A.I. start-ups, Z.ai and Moonshot AI, released models that rival those from Anthropic and other US labs. Anthropic and OpenAI claim some A.I. models are too dangerous and must be tightly controlled - by themselves. The rest of the tech industry, including Microsoft and Nvidia, contend that open-source A.I. models must remain open to further develop the technology. The tide is turning in open source's favor. On Friday, Elon Musk, Meta’s Zuckerberg, OpenAI's Altman and others lined up behind Nvidia's Huang and Microsoft's Nadella to throw the weight of their companies behind open source, followed by Google's Pichai on Saturday. “There’s the people who want OpenAI and Anthropic to own everything, and there’s everybody else, including customers.”

Once Securely Occupied Russian Territory Now Being Cleared By Ukraine

Ukrainian forces are clearing areas that had been securely occupied by Russia  as systematic counterattacks retake positions held by Russian units for years. JL

 
Ukrinform reports:

Soldiers of Ukraine's 3rd Regiment of the Special Operations Forces cleared a forest area, reportedly near Myrnohrad, where Russian units had been hiding for a long time. The mission's difficulty lay in the dense vegetation and the area's mining. Because of this, aerial reconnaissance and other attempts by friendly units to locate the enemy had been unsuccessful. A second mop-up group discovered enemy positions that had already been abandoned; weapons, ammunition, and other equipment left behind by the occupiers were found. 

Cold War Helicopter Now Effective Ukraine Drone Hunter-Killer

Ukraine has become famous for teaching old war dogs new tricks. Its troops have repeatedly taken cast-off NATO weaponry, innovatively and effectively repurposing it for modern war.

In this latest case, the Ukrainians have addressed the short battery life and weather-affected tendencies of anti-drone munitions by using aging Cold War submarine hunter helicopters to lift the antidrone drones above the cloud cover and then launch them at incoming Russian drones. JL

David Axe reports in Trench Art:

The Sea King is Ukraine's latest interceptor drone carrier. Interceptors costing just a few thousand dollars apiece have helped Ukrainian air defenders blunt the impact of the thousands of Gerans, drones modeled after Iranian-made Shaheds, that Russia launches at Ukrainian cities every month. Air defenders typically take out around 90% of incoming Gerans. But interceptor drones come with limitations. They're powered by batteries that exhaust themselves after just a few minutes of flight. And they are prone to being blinded by bad weather and low clouds. To prolong the interceptors' flights and get them above the rain and clouds, Ukrainian forces have begun using manned aircraft to loft the interceptors into the air before launching them. The Ukrainian navy's helicopter unit, the 10th Naval Aviation Brigade operates the Sea Kings.

Ukrainian Cyberattack Causes Russians To Shoot Down Own Jet Fighter

The crash of a Russian Su-57 jet fighter taking off from a military airfield near Moscow may have been caused by a Ukrainian cyberattack. 

The Ukrainians reportedly hacked into the Moscow area air defense system, caused the Russian plane to be designated an enemy target and then, either let the system engage the threat, or then actually ordered the Moscow system to shoot it down. Either way, this is another clever manipulation by the Ukrainians and an added worry for Russia. JL

Defense Express reports:

The crash of a Su-57 fighter jet near Moscow was linked to the actions of air defense units from Russia's Combat Army Reserve Moscow detachment, which is composed of reservists. This could be the first known instance of a combat aircraft being destroyed as a result of a cyberattack. The aircraft crashed immediately after taking off from Kubinka airfield, meaning that it was flying at a low altitude. This possibility involves gaining unauthorized access to and manipulating the airspace situational awareness system. The Su-57 may have been designated as an enemy target, leading to it being engaged by the 1st Moscow Special Purpose Air and Missile Defense Army, medium and long-range air defense missile systems.