This Time At Orikhiv, Ukraine Cuts Off Another Russian Attack Salient

If it works, do it again. Operation Vivaldi proved out the Ukrainian strategy of allowing Russians forces to think they were advancing, creating a salient and then Ukraine's troops quickly move to slash into their flanks and cut them off. 

It worked in Lyman, it is working in Kharkhiv - and now it is working in Zaporizhzhia. The Russians  have not been able to protect their flanks effectively because they don't have enough troops to deliver the gains the Kremlin demands and also afford themselves protection. Eventually that might change. But for now, the Ukrainians are taking advantage. JL

Decimus reports in Daily Kos:

Ukraine is doing what it now does best … allow Russia to massively commit to an offensive, then start scissoring it apart, locking in the force that is already committed, close off their access such as bridges, then interdict their logistics in the rear as far away from the committed formations as possible: Recent reports indicate that this is in motion in the Orikhiv sector of Zaporizhzhia oblast where Ukrainian Forces destroyed bridges in the Huliaipole sector, disrupting Russian supply lines and hindering offensive aimed toward Orikhiv. The Russians have boxed themselves into this failing battle strategy because they are aware that they dare not create a single massive overwhelming thrust … for fear of the Ukrainians in turn executing a flanking maneuver. Again.

As Vivaldi Ends, Putin's Donbas Dream Is Further Away Than Ever

Try as he might to position himself as one of the world's three great dictators (beside his superiors, Xi and Trump), Putin's military continues to expose the growing weakness of  Russian power. 

Yes, he can bombard civilian targets in Ukraine, spike riots in France, threaten NATO bases in Europe with occasional drones and otherwise remain a global pest, but on the Ukrainian battlefield, where it counts, his army has been conclusively defeated again, in the Lyman as Ukraine's Operation Vivaldi has again derailed his so far unattainable dream of taking the Donbas despite almost five years of trying. JL

Mick Ryan reports in Futura Doctrina:

Putin's goal of seizing the Donbas appears further away than ever as Vivaldi collapsed the Russian salient north of Lyman. The Russians are having their second-worst period of the war for territorial losses. No wonder he is investing so much in getting Trump on side. But, ever the loyal vassal, Russian General Gerasimov sought to cheer up his president this week with entirely fanciful figures about captured territory. “With no significant successes on the battlefield, the Russian military leadership continues to create an illusion of major victories for its political leadership and domestic audience.” 

Operation Vivaldi Phase 4 Finalized Russia's Complete Lyman Defeat

Ukraine's Operation Vivaldi ended as quietly as it began, with the capture of the key, former Russian logistics hub, of Kolodiazi. Like many of the areas retaken by the Ukrainians' 3rd Corps, the village was largely deserted, underscoring the fact that many of the Russians' initial, highly touted 'victories' in this sector were really empty areas of little strategic importance.

The larger lesson of the Vivaldi operation is that Ukraine's strict operational security, thorough planning and precise execution of their battle plan led to a stinging defeat of Russian forces which had hoped to use this territory as a springboard for further Donbas gains. That hope is now in tatters. JL

Yuri Zoria reports in the Euromaidan Press:

During the fourth and final phase of Operation Vivaldi. Ukrainian infantry encircled and retook the village of Kolodiazi north of Lyman without getting drawn into street fighting. The Ist Mechanized drone battalion killed or wounded about 500 Russian troops during the fourth phase and struck "more than two hundred pieces of equipment: Grad and Uragan rocket launchers, armored vehicles, tanks, armored combat vehicles. Most of all motorbikes and quad bikes, there the count runs into the hundreds. This is our enemy’s main logistics tool.” Vivaldi’s four phases retook 277 km² and 16 settlements, and Russian forces suffered more than ten times more casualties than Ukrainians forces.

Tech Stocks Erased $1 Trillion In Value Friday As Investors' AI Doubts Surge

The negative pressure on tech stocks, which caused a $1 Trillion value loss on Friday, is coming from several directions. 

Externally, a rise in interest rates, fueled, in part, by the cost of oil and gas, is raising borrowing costs for AI companies who evidently thought it was sorta like free money because it wasn't equity. But the reality is that it is making their debt much more expensive just at a point when a plurality - and possibly a solid majority - of investors are beginning to ask very serious questions about how and when it can be paid back, let alone generate a return. And this is coming just as investors are also raising concerns about the rising cost and numbers of data centers, or even whether they are really necessary. All of which is putting additional pressure on the Federal Reserve to raise interest rates further, which will exacerbate the problem. And, for the first time, the specter is being raised of a pre-midterm election October surprise being a market crash. JL

Steve Kopack reports in NBC:

Tech stocks shed more than $1 trillion in value Friday. The sharp drop in tech shares came as worries about ballooning debt, high interest rates and rising oil prices resurfaced. At the same time that inflation pushes interest rates higher around the world, trillion-dollar tech companies are borrowing and spending hundreds of billions of dollars to develop AI and build their vast data centers. Fresh cracks began to show in the AI business model, as investors raised questions about when their massive injections of cash into AI companies would pay off. The two worst performing stocks in the Nasdaq 100 on Friday were both data center companies: Nebuius and CoreWeave. The latter’s shares plunged more than 25% over the past month. These companies are just two of the dozens that have borrowed billions of dollars at high interest rates to expand at a breakneck pace.

Starlink Reliability As Brand Irreparably Damaged By Trump-Musk Ukraine Cutoff

After the Trump-Musk mafia-style reduction of Starlink capabilities this week to suit their own personal interests, no government - whether

dictatorship or democracy - nor any business wanting to protect its own operational and financial interests is going to allow itself to become dependent on a system controlled by the whims of self-serving oligarchs and politicians.

The result will be a dramatic increase in new offerings which offer the same service with less political risk. Musk  suggested this bullying to protect his own dependence on US government contracts which have increased under Trump. Trump is trying to buy Putin's illicit support for his own future, at least partially threatened by the Democrats' midterm election results. But whoever gave the order - and reports indicate it was collaborative between the two, it has signalled the beginning of the end of Starlink's dominance. JL

Mark Urban reports in The Times of London:

The slowdown of the Starlink system has underlined the degree to which Ukrainian military forces depend on American satellites. It also highlighted that other western militaries are similarly at risk. Whoever the order came from, the biggest lesson for both Ukraine and western countries trying to modernise their armed forces is that Musk’s SpaceX has capabilities giving the US, for now, unique leverage. The experience has left militaries wondering how to reduce their dependence on this American technology. The UK made an investment of £374m seven years ago in a system called OneWeb, which is independent of Trump and Musk, and the UK can now make use of its 650 satellites. The French firm Eutelsat (also) invested in it, so it provides a European alternative to Starlink. Ukraine will now make increased use of OneWeb.

How Ukrainian Soldiers Fight and Survive in the Kill Zone

The front has become an outmoded concept. There is now a miles wide gray zone, loosely held by small groups of infantry supplied by drones. It is also a kill zone, where to move is to die, spotted and then dispatched by ever watchful drones. 

Living conditions are primitive. Lengths of deployment are mind-numbingly long due to the threat of detection and the difficulty of insertion and extraction. But still the Ukrainian troops hold. JL

Constant Meheut and colleagues report in the New York Times:

Six months in the kill zone: holed up in a half-destroyed house. They could hear drones buzzing overhead nonstop. To avoid detection, they relieved themselves in bags rather than step outside; slept pressed together in winter rather than light a fire; and dragged the bodies of Russian soldiers they killed into their house, so drones  would not detect signs of With vehicles unable to reach the front, food and water were dropped by drones. The drops sometimes failed, leaving them hungry and thirsty. Units could only fly in medicine. For soldiers badly wounded and in need of evacuation, the only option was a robotic ground vehicle.. Moving is the most dangerous thing a soldier can do in the kill zone. The front has blurred into a miles wide wasteland and has become so fuzzy that opposing troops sometimes shelter in the same building.

For 2nd Time In 2 Weeks, Ukraine Tanks Attack, Are Hit - and Survive

Call it proof of concept: for the second time in two weeks, Ukrainian tanks attacked Russian positions and survived the ensuing encounter with mines and drones. 

The key to this development is the contemporary version of combined arms warfare. The tanks and armored personnel carriers are equipped with electronic warfare defenses, hedgehog anti-drone protections and, most importantly, are accompanies by a variety of FPV, bomber and surveillance drones to fight off Russian drones as well as suppress Russian defenders. Both sides are learning from this, but Ukraine's first mover advantage provides additional benefits in the context of its continued success across multiple sectors. JL

David Axe reports in Trench Art:

For  the second time in two weeks, Ukraine's 475th Assault Regiment has demonstrated how armored vehicles can fight and survive on a battlefield buzzing with enemy drones. The regiment encased a tank and an American-made M-2 Bradley infantry fighting vehicle in metal frames and welded hundreds of metal spines onto those frames, transforming them into "hedgehog" vehicles. They fought in mixed ground-air "combined arms" formations. The tank and fighting vehicle provided the firepower. Escorting drones provided the aerial protection and lend the hedgehogs situational awareness. Vampire drones drop grenades to suppress Russian positions, clear mines and Russian drones. FPV drones intercept the Russians' own FPV drones as they zoom in to strike. The vehicles repeatedly came under attack from Russian FPVs  but their armor held—and both vehicles survived.