Russian Military On Crimea Suffers Severe Fuel Shortages, Rationing

When the Kremlin's own army can no longer move because Ukrainian drones are systematically dismantling Russia's energy infrastructure, serious questions have to be asked about that country's ability to continue fighting a war in the modern era. JL

Ukrinform reports:

Russian occupation forces have imposed strict fuel rationing for mobile fire groups and air defense units deployed in temporarily occupied Kherson region and Crimea, including those tasked with protecting Russian positions from Ukrainian drones. These conditions have been observed in several Russian units, including the 1096th Anti-Aircraft Missile Regiment of the 22nd Army Corps and mobile fire groups operating along the R-280 highway near Chonhar in occupied Crimea, as well as air defense and drone units of Russia's 49th Combined Arms Army in the occupied Kherson region.

50 Russian Tanks, Vehicles Destroyed By Ukraine At Kostiantynivka

The interesting question is not how the tanks and other vehicles were destroyed. We know that: Ukrainian drones. 

No, the real question is why, at this point in the war, Russian commanders would waste (yet again...) so many troops and so much equipment for what would obviously, at this point in the war, such a futile effort. Maybe it was just some frustrated general, under pressure from the Kremlin, ordering someone to do something. And some people continue to wonder why the Russians are not winning, let alone increasingly losing. JL

Euromaidan Press reports:

Despite  Russian commanders concluding that vehicles are too easy for Ukraine's tiny first-person-view drones to find and strike, and despite a reported ban on Russian vehicular traffic on eastern Ukraine's Donetsk Ring Road, the Russian Center Group of Forces massed no fewer than 50 vehicles 12 km south of the gray zone stretching between Kostiantynivka and Toretske in Donetsk. The outcome was predictable. Drones from the Ukrainian State Security Service's Ivan Franko Group detected and attacked the column of trucks, vans, cars, all-terrain vehicles, and motorcycles just south of the ring road near the village of Malynivka, an important base for Russian forces fighting in Donetsk Oblast. When the smoke and dust cleared, more than 50 vehicles had been hit and immobilized if not destroyed.

51 Ukraine Private Air Defense Units Have Shot Down 50 Russian Drones So Far

Since inviting private companies to establish their own air defense units, 51 companies have been approved so far and those units have shot down approximately 50 Russian drones. JL

Militarnyi reports:

Fifty-one companies have already joined a pilot project to deploy a private air defense system. All of these companies have been granted authorization to carry out air defense operations. They have already shot down more than 50 drones, including Shahed-type attack drones and Zala reconnaissance UAVs. In total, 62 companies of various ownership structures, representing different economic sectors and regions of Ukraine, have submitted applications to participate in the program.

In the Ukraine War's Endgame, Russian Attrition Rate Is 19 Times A Year Earlier

Russian forces are not only losing ground, people and equipment, they are doing so at a much faster rate than previously. The implication is that things are getting worse for Putin's war effort - and that there is no sign thy can or will get better. 

But even fears of escalation by a 'wounded animal,' such as Putin is frequently considered, are not dire as NATO is well aware of the threat and much better prepared for it than they ever have been. The result is that Russia's options have diminished and are expected to remain so. JL

Serge Schmemann reports in the New York Times:

Russia is still clawing away at Ukrainian territory, but at a snail’s pace and extraordinary cost. Ukraine says it inflicted almost 40,000 Russian dead and wounded in June, or about 1,300 casualties per square kilometer “seized or infiltrated,” an attrition rate 19 times what it was a year earlier. “Ukrainian forces are becoming increasingly effective at simultaneously slowing Russian advances and inflicting heavier losses.” Following the old precept of “shoot the archer, not the arrow,” Ukraine has been increasingly targeting military-industrial facilities deep in Russia with considerable effect, as evidenced by Russia’s recent ban on the export of diesel fuel. Mr. Putin's time is fast running out. 

Every Boom Has A Clock. AI May Already Be Approaching Saturation

An analyiis of recent technological revolutions reveals that they have a now predictable path in terms of uptake and length of impact before the boom excitement leads to casual acceptance as the norm.

What's different about AI is that it is moving two to three times faster than its predecessors. While that may or may not mean enhanced impact (it may just reflect the fact that in a technologically dominant socio-economic system, people adopt faster), it may mean that saturation and adaptation are happening at a much quicker rate. This, in turn, may mean that the most dramatic effects may have already been embraced and implemented so that future adjustments could be less impactful. Which may also be the reason why investors markets are pulling back and becoming more cautious about its future. JL

Aashray Iyer reports in Bootcamp:

Every tech revolution stops being a revolution and becomes...wallpaper. The internet got so woven into everything we stopped noticing. You just live there. The Mainframe Era (1950s–60s) gave us programming and software. The PC Revolution (1970s–80s) put a computer in your home. Dot-com peaked, crashed, and then became (life). The Mobile/App Store era (2007–2015) was social media, on-demand food. Every boom. About a decade. AI is moving 2 to 3x faster than any of these. The speed of AI’s evolution means we’ll soon be past the peak. The big, jaw-dropping leaps are largely done. What’s left is refinement. Lights turn on when you flip the switch. That’s where AI is going. The “AI-powered” badge will disappear because it would be like “electricity-powered.” AI's next wave will get out of the way and make you feel more capable: technology made for humans. The AI era will end the way the best eras end: by becoming so normal no one calls it an era anymore.

Desperate Kremlin Strips Air Defense Weapons From Far North To Moscow

Russia is stripping air defenses from other vulnerable parts of the country where it either has strategic bases or military manufacturing in order to try to protect Moscow, St Petersburg and other more southern or western regions which are suffering from relentless Ukrainian drone attacks. 

Russia's far north is reportedly the area most affected by the transfer of air defense weaponry and personnel. JL

Amos Chapple and Mark Krutov report in RFL/RE:

Key military sites in Russia’s far north appear to have been deprived of their air defense assets, recent satellite images show, as the Kremlin attempts to counter an increasingly damaging Ukrainian drone campaign targeting sites elsewhere in the country. The disappearance of many air defense assets from Russia’s far north represents “a growing mismatch between the targets Russia must protect and its available launchers, interceptors, and trained personnel.” As air defense systems disappear from the far north, others have appeared alongside more likely targets for Ukraine’s drone attacks.

Ukraine Ground Drone Use Up 122% As Gray Zone Gets More Lethal

The significance of this is not only that Ukraine sees the need to deploy so many more ground drones, but that it has the ability to do so effectively in a relatively short period of time. JL

Matthew Loh reports in Business Insider:

In the first month of summer, the use of ground drones increased by 18.6% compared to May, and by 122% compared to January. Ukraine's forces conducted over 16,000 missions with ground drones in June alone, more than double its January tally. One of Ukraine's solutions to preserve its already stretched troops is to flood these battlefield supply routes with ground drones instead — often wheeled or tracked buggies laden with food, ammo, and water. Over the last two months, Ukrainian units have also been converting aerial bomber, attack, and surveillance drones to carry supplies