Putin - and Putinism - Have No Good Way Out of His War

There is a delicious irony in watching

Vladimir Putin, the ultimate authoritarian, hoisted on his own hubris. In the fifth year of a war he started, assured - at least in his own mind - of a quick victory, he now finds not only his own rule, but the system he installed and runs with an iron fist threatened by the failure of the military he thought would enforce his will. 

While there appears to be no imminent downfall in the offing, seeing what happened to his putative allies in Syria and Venezuela suggests that, like a burning building, regimes may take years to weaken, then collapse all at once. He has no good options for exiting Ukraine that do not result in his own demise. JL

Michael Kimmidge comments in the New York Times:

Perpetuating a war is not the same as winning one. Mr. Putin has few escalatory tools left to change the dynamic. Nor can he simply withdraw from Ukraine. Were Russia to accept a settlement along the current line of contact, he would have little to show for his efforts. As a political survivor he understands that if he were to present such a small prize to Russians, it would be an admission of the war’s senselessness. The poor quality of his strategic thinking and his hubris could become a political factor. Russia’s president has shown himself to be a mediocre head of state. With each Ukrainian strike on Russian territory, the war is eroding the well-being of Russian citizens.

Kremlin's Forces Lost Ground Again In May As Ukraine Gains More Than Russians

For the first time in three years, Ukrainian forces gained more territory than did the Russians in May. This is significant because the amount of Russian advance has been decreasing for several months, but for the Ukrainians to now surpass the Russians suggests that the trend is systemic, not just episodic, and may reveal a long-term change in the countries' relative military capabilities and strategic fortunes. 

The implication is that Ukraine's three-pronged effort to target Kremlin assets at the front, in the mid-range just behind it and at longer ranges inside Russia are having a cascading, and perhaps irreversible, military and economic impact. JL 

Jimmy Rushton and Asami Terajima report in the Kyiv Independent:

Ukraine  has gained more territory than Russia occupied over the same period in May, pushing overall Russian advances into the negative for the first time since 2023. "This is the first month in recent years after the 'Counteroffensive 2023' when the increase in the occupied territory for the Russians became negative. Russia typically advances faster in the late spring-fall, but we aren't seeing an increase in the rate of advance. It is important because the seasons have already changed and Russian advances have not increased." The reverses Russia suffered came despite a significant increase in Russian assault actions, which jumped up by 37.5% in May.

Russian Forces Cleared From Positions By Ukrainian Ground Drone

Russian troops who infiltrated the Kharkiv oblast village of Novoplatonivka were driven out - and the village cleared - by Ukraine's 115th Mechanized Brigade, which used a ground drone for the task. 

Such UGVs have now assaulted entrenched Russian units, captured Russian soldiers and defended Ukrainian positions - all without infantry being exposed. There have not, so far, been any reports of the Russians having similar success. JL

Vlad Litnaroych reports in Untied 24 and Valentyna Romanenko reports in Ukraine Pravda:

Ukrainian troops from the 115th Mechanized Brigade used a ground drone to clear Russian troops from Novoplatonivka in Kharkiv oblast. The operation came after Russian sources had claimed the “capture” of Novoplatonivka. Those reports collapsed once again under battlefield reality and new military technology. To clear the area of infiltrated Russian forces, a strike-and-search group from the 115th Brigade first tested the combat module of the ground-based robotic system at a training ground. "The mopping-up of the settlement was carried out in a precise, coordinated manner. The ground-based robotic system provided reliable fire support, allowing the group to successfully complete the mission."

AI Powers Historic Stock Rally Even As AI Math Becomes "Hallucinatory"

These are the good old days. The only question is how long they will last. AI is powering an historic rally in stocks. And AI skeptics appear to have largely surrendered to the conventional wisdom: don't fight the tape, the trend is your friend. 

But, to the extent there are lingering concerns, they are not if money will be made, about how. Because some of the math underpinning the rally doesn't make sense from an historical perspective: competition lowers prices, such as those for AI usage tokens, whose cost has become so exorbitant that even very deep-pocketed companies like Microsoft are rationing them. The prudent course seems to be: enjoy the ride, but keep an eye for inevitable changes to the underlying economics. JL

Jack Pitcher and Andy Kessler report in the Wall Street Journal:

AI chip stocks powered the S&P 500 up 16% across April and May, a surge matched only four times since 1950. This is driving an historic stock rally, sending shares of tech companies soaring that recalls the dot-com boom. Wall Street—and history—suggest the gains could keep coming: fund managers have reduced their cash levels by the most in a month since 2024, holding significantly more stocks than their benchmarks. Skeptics note there may be 47 million programmers in the world but very few have a budget of $100,000 to spend on AI tokens. Token prices have risen 65% since February. But shortages don’t last, meaning over the next five years we’ll see token costs decline another 90%, maybe 99%. The future AI math is more like 470 million coders with $1,000 of tokens. Even $100. The rosiest AI demand forecasts will be exceeded, but at much lower prices.

Putin Has "Air of Desperation" As Ebbing Willpower, Strategic Defeat Loom

A tenet of military lore holds that ground doesn't matter - it's the enemy's will to fight. By that measure, Ukraine has already demonstrated its strength. 

But recent developments suggest that Russia's will to battle, which has not wavered for four years despite historically horrific losses, may have begun to ebb as Ukraine's successes on the ground, in the air and on the sea begin to tell. That multiple observers note 'an air of desperation around Putin' suggests this is systemic, not temporary. JL

Thomas Harding reports in The National:

Russia's minor operations to seize Ukrainian territory are “at best tactical victories leading effectively to strategic defeat. The amount of kit and humans they have expended on very small gains is unsustainable even for a country that has willing manpower." The Ukrainians “have largely replaced trench warfare with “zonal defence." If the Russians attack, they're not being repelled by humans but by air and ground drones collectively. "Ukraine isn't losing so many people, and Russia is losing vast numbers.” Ultimately ground doesn't matter, it’s the enemy's will to fight matters and that willpower could be ebbing on the Russian side. "There's an air of desperation about Putin at the moment.”

Unjammable Ukraine 'Vampire' Drones Now Destroy $200 Million Russian Jammers

Russia's Borisoglebsk-2 has been a very effective, electronic warfare jammer. But at $200 million each, the Kremlin has only produced a few dozen of them. Ukraine has now knocked out six of them. 

It has been able to do this because of upgrades to its large Vampire "Baba Yaga" drones which make them not only unjammable, but able to locate and destroy the systems designed to jam them. JL

David Axe reports in Trench Art:

Ukrainian iconic Vampire bomber drones have been upgraded to resist Russian electronic warfare. Now the six-rotor drone can not only fly through Russian jamming. It can attack the jammers themselves. The “Vampire” has been upgraded with terrain-following navigation, radio frequency hopping, and an improved jam-resistant CRPA satellite navigation system. A Vampire recently found and bombed a rare Russian Borisoglebsk-2 tracked jamming vehicle, destroying it with several grenades that punched through it's thin top armor. A Borisoglebsk-2 complex is estimated to cost $200 million. Russia has built only a few dozen of them since 2015, and Ukrainian forces have knocked out at least six since 2023.

"Highway To Hell:" Ukraine's "Logistics Lockdown" Of Kremlin Routes

Ukraine's interdiction of Russian supplies, fuel, reinforcements - and the vehicles they travel in - plus ancillary targets like air defenses, command centers, warehouses, ammunition dumps and ports has now become legendary, almost overnight. 

The Ukrainian defense minister's catchy phraseology - 'logistics lockdown' has a nice alliterative ring - is helpful, but it is the comprehensive and relentless nature of the Ukrainian long range drone attacks, as well as their impact, that is justifiably garnering most of the attention. Not only is much of the Kremlin's occupied southern Ukraine land-bridge under Ukrainian fire control, but Crimea is now isolated and supplies to the faltering offensives in Zaporizhzhia, Luhansk and Donetsk are in danger. Hundreds of Russian trucks have been confirmed destroyed. But again, it is the systematic nature of the Ukrainian effort that impresses most: data reveal that as destruction of Russian logistics increases, their assaults decrease. JL

 
Phillips O'Brien reports in his substack and Mick Ryan reports :

Ukraine this week announced its ‘Logistics Lockdown' campaign has been going on - and planned - for months. It targets the M-14 road from Rostov-on-Don in Russia, through occupied Mariupol, Berdyansk, and Melitopol, and into Crimea. Headquarters, training camps, air defence, ammunition, fuel storage and other military assets up to 100 kilometres behind the front are also targets. By three weeks ending May 30, 86 burned trucks and tankers were confirmed on the M-14. 125 destroyed trucks were seen far away. "Ukraine has increased fourfold the destruction of enemy logistics, warehouses, equipment, vehicles, command posts, and supply routes at operational depth. Data points to a clear trend: as the destruction of Russian logistics increases, assault operations along the front decreases." This will lead to a constant degradation of Russian fighting power. Supplies will decrease, command will be chaotic, losses will rise and replacements will be inadequate.