Ukraine's Most Underrated Military Advantage Is Leadership

Much has been written about Ukraine's capacity for innovation and the results it has produced from drones to missiles to electronic warfare. 

But Ukraine's key strategic advantage over Russia may be the quality of its leadership, from the office of the presidency to the officers in staffs and on the ground who have learned the hard way how to assess the right troops and weapons, then apply them at the right time, in the right place and in the right way. JL

David Deptula reports in Forbes:

Military  effectiveness is determined not simply by weapons, but by the quality of the decisions governing their employment. Ukraine has found ways to outthink, out plan, and outperform its opponent. Equally important is the integration of military capabilities: airpower, land and maritime forces, intelligence, space, cyber, electronic warfare, and logistics contribute to using the right force at the right place at the right time. The measure of success is not how many targets are destroyed or how much ground changes hands but that military actions achieve operational and strategic objectives. Operation Vivaldi, conducted by Ukraine’s 3rd Corps, offers is instructive. The emphasis was on creating favorable conditions before committing forces, reducing the delay between recognizing a problem and acting on it. The results validated the importance of focusing military operations on achieving strategic effects rather than destruction for its own sake.

Russians Surrender En Masse as Ukraine Applies Lyman Tactics To Kharkhiv Salient

Applying the same strategy and tactics that worked in the Lyman sector during Operation Vivaldi, Ukrainian forces in Kharkhiv oblast cut off a Russian salient and then either eliminated or accepted the surrender of the Russian troops trapped therein.

This template now seems broadly applicable to other Russian advances, in large measure because the Russians prefer to get credit for gains, so are not careful about protecting their flanks and thus create new vulnerabilities. JL

RFU News reports:

Russian troops attempting to complete the encirclement of Ukrainian defenses north of Kharkiv increasingly found themselves stranded inside Ukrainian-controlled or contested territory as Ukrainian drone operators concentrated on disrupting Russian logistics. Without reinforcements, an infiltration remains an isolated position rather than a sustainable breakthrough. Realizing they were surrounded by Ukrainian observation and facing further attacks, the Russians surrendered. Russia’s strategy depends upon establishing positions faster than Ukraine can eliminate them, but systematic Ukrainian interdiction is reversing that calculation and trapping the Russian infiltrators

AI Companies Face Growing Product Damage Legal Liability With No Insurance

The potential legal liability risk from lawsuits generated by creation or use of AI that results in damages - or worse - is growing at the same pace as the ostensible AI market. 

Which is frightening enough, but unlike the protections afforded by section 230 to  an earlier generation of tech companies, AI firms and users face a much larger risk because they admittedly do contribute to content. And even if you could find AI insurance, it tends to max out in the millions while the risk is easily in the billions. This is becoming a board-level concern for both AI generators and their customers put the AI models to use. While some in Silicon Valley are calling for a government-funded solution, the public antipathy to AI is such that this seems increasingly unlikely. JL

Jen Eaglesham reports in the Wall Street Journal:

Rogue AI have hacked websites. AI chatbots have been encouraging suicides and murders. An agent submitted fake unsolved murder tips. The latest episodes add to existing lawsuits AI companies face alleging chatbot harm and copyright violations from models' training. The limitless possibilities of AI to change the world also include a wide-ranging capacity for harm that could leave companies that produce or use AI legally vulnerable. The biggest AI companies are racking up potential legal liabilities running into the tens—if not hundreds—of billions of dollars for AI companies because they materially contribute to content. A few insurers sell coverage for AI risks. But the policy limits are small compared with the potential exposure of the AI giants. “There’s too little capacity in every aspect of the risk being created by the AI boom.”

The Backstairs Kremlin Maneuvering To Succeed Putin Has Already Begun

Putin is 74 years old. He shows no signs of fading or of giving up power. But like most dictators, he is surrounded by a cadre of largely faceless men - and they are all men. This is intentional both on his part and theirs. 

He will brook no rivals or pretenders to the throne. And his courtiers are well aware that promoting themselves through public recognition will quickly lead to an 'accidental' fall from a high window. But behind the scenes they are maneuvering so as to be in the best position when he either dies, falters due to age or his misadventures in Ukraine and elsewhere finally catch up with him. All, though, are acutely aware of Kremlin history, particularly after Stalin's death, when the subordinate considered least capable and least likely to succeed Stalin actually won. His name was Nikita Kruschchev. JL

Raj K reports in Medium:

In dictatorial systems, the dictator behaves as if he is immortal, while the courtiers around him constantly look to fill the power vacuum. Putin' inner courtiers are already preparing for the world after him and the battle of succession. Stalin sowed distrust among his companions, leveled accusations of conspiracies against them, and tested their loyalty so no one could build power around himself. Putin is on the same path today. As he turns 74, his body weakens and his contact with the real world fades, he will resort even more to fear, cruelty, and war to maintain his power. The model for the system after Putin is drawn from the power struggle that took place after Stalin’s death in March 1953 when a fierce battle took place among Lavrentiy Beria, Georgy Malenkov, Vyacheslav Molotov, and Nikita Khrushchev, in which Khrushchev, regarded as ordinary, surprised Russians by having Beria killed, and then pushed the remaining rivals to the margins and seized supreme power.

Aerial Drone To Evacuate Wounded Now Being Used By Ukrainians

This could literally be a life-saver on the Ukrainian battlefield where drones have made evacuation of wounded soldiers supremely risky and the notion of the 'golden hour' (the time in which evacuating wounded soldiers increases the likelihood of survival) is but a dream.

This drone is equipped to avoid jamming, can carry up to 300 pounds, can fly in rain or snow and can continue to operate if it loses one of its rotors. JL

Cyril Barabaltchouk reports in United 24:

StarGate is Ukraine's first aerial drone designed to evacuate wounded soldiers from areas too dangerous for conventional vehicles or evacuation teams.  In some sectors, the battlefield “kill zone” under constant drone and artillery threat extends 10 to 15 kilometers or farther. StarGate has a one-way range of 15 kilometers and is designed to reach wounded troops inside those areas. “Covering 10 kilometers in minutes would be a drastic change on the front line.” StarGate can carry up to 150 kilograms (over 300 pounds), enough for a wounded soldier wearing body armor and combat equipment. Its evacuation compartment is built around a medical-grade stretcher. The drone cruises at 65 kilometers per hour and can reach 105 kilometers per hour. Tt can be prepared for flight in 10 minutes.

Vivaldi Reveals Ukraine Knows How To Beat Russians - And Can Repeat It

The Ukrainians' success in Operation Vivaldi has created the template for beating Russia in the drone era: advance degradation of enemy force and logistical capabilities, use of ground and aerial drones both to precede and accompany attacking infantry and armor, and electronic warfare neutering of Russian intelligence. It is also worth noting that keeping objectives simple and then adding to them incrementally is more effective than grand Napoleonic maneuvers. 

What is most important now is the opportunity to replicate that success along other sectors of the front, which may already be happening. JL

David Axe reports in Euromaidan Press:

Five months after launching Operation Vivaldi, the Ukrainian 3rd Army Corps has eliminated the Russian bridgehead on its most important objective: the Zherebets River, which forms a natural defensive barrier east of the last big free cities in Donetsk: Sloviansk and Kramatorsk. The Ukrainians dodged traps as they flanked the 20th and 25th CAAs. They didn't get stuck in the Russians' minefields. They didn't expose themselves to air attack. (And) they didn't set their sights on distant objectives, instead stacking small gains on top of small gains until those amounted to a big victory. Aerial and electronic preparation was a prerequisite for each of the 3rd Army Corps' incremental advances. The lesson is that "higher headquarters must degrade key enemy capabilities" before a smaller force can gain ground and keep it. There's some evidence the Ukrainians are repeating Operation Vivaldi's success in the southeast

Canceled, Delayed AI and Data Center IPOs Reveal Growing Investor Caution

The combined effect of multiple negative influences is causing investors to become increasingly cautious about the prospects for AI and related company IPOs. 

These factors include the poor performance of recent IPOs, rising interest rates, growing political opposition to data centers, competition from cheaper Chinese models, concerns about AI risk and the fear that the AI funding market is beginning to tighten. As a result, some offerings are being delayed, a few even canceled. But the larger implication is that while this does not necessarily mean the AI boom has peaked, it does reveal a growing investor uncertainty about how long it can continue. JL

Corrie Driebusch and colleagues report in the Wall Street Journal:

Rising  interest rates, a jumpy stock market and heightened political uncertainty are creating a dicey outlook for tech companies that had been aiming for a fourth-quarter public offering, causing some to reconsider their timing. A selloff in memory chip makers on Tuesday spurred by concerns about competitive threats from China was a reminder of how sensitive investors are to adverse developments. Shares in CoreWeave and Nebius also traded down, continuing a weeklong slide. The latest signs of cooling interest came when two data-center companies, Airtrunk and Firmus Grid, pumped the brakes on their public offerings within a few days. market conditions and local backlash to AI data centers could cause the funding market to tighten. Investors are being choosier about new stock offerings, reserving capital for Anthropic’s planned offering later this year. Poor performance by recent IPOs is also deterring investors.