Ukrainian Air Assault Forces Break Russian Lines At Oleksandrivka, in South

Continuing their opportunistic counter offensive, Ukrainian troops in the country's south, in this case air assault forces, have broken Russian lines at Oleksandrivka, adding to the territory recaptured and further stymieing Russian efforts to prepare for spring offensives. JL

Kateryna Tyschenko reports in Ukraine Pravda:

Units from the 132nd Reconnaissance Battalion of the 7th Rapid Reaction Corps of Ukraine's Air Assault Forces have broken through the Russian defensive line on the Oleksandrivka front in Ukraine's south. The operation has wiped out enemy firing positions, manpower and ammunition storage sites, spoiling their plans for further offensive action. 

Why Time Is No Longer On Russia's Side In Ukraine

2025 was a crucial year for Russia's military in Ukraine. They threw everything they had into the effort to take Pokrovsk and make the Ukrainians sue for peace. But they failed, with underwhelming performance and barely measurable gains. 

This year promises to be worse for them, as the Kremlin struggles to find enough new cannon fodder and their winter bombardment of Ukraine's civilian heating systems only stiffened Ukrainian resolve. Russia is no longer capable of military breakthroughs and there is no evidence to support Putin's belief that he can prevail if he just keeps trying, especially as his economy craters and his global allies are falling like dominoes. JL

David French interviews Michael Kofman in the New York Times:

Russian combat performance last year was underwhelming. Their battlefield results have been lackluster and they face economic strain. The Russian military, while advantaged in manpower and matériel, has not been able to convert (those) into operationally relevant gains. The Ukrainians have offset the Russian advantages and held them to incremental gains. The Ukraine situation is not dire, they can still sustain the war, and Russia lacks the ability to pose a serious threat to Ukrainian cities or to take large territories. The political goals Moscow has are very difficult to achieve with the military they have available. Leaders often want to believe something will break their way if they persist, even though there’s no evidence of that. So is time really on Russia’s side? If 2026 unfolds in a fashion similar to 2025, then we can already say the answer is no. 

Iran's Khamenei, Another Russian Ally, Follows Assad, Maduro In Falling. Putin Next?

Three of Russia's most prominent allies - Syria's Assad, Venezuela's Maduro and now Iran's Khamenei - have fallen in just over a year, largely due to US intervention - and none of them received crucial support from Moscow to prevent that outcome. 

The question that now arises is whether the stalled, and arguably failed, Russian invasion of Ukraine has so reduced the Kremlin's ability to act elsewhere in the world that it is no longer a significant global threat, let alone power. This, in turn, raises questions about Putin's ability to hang on. With his military might revealed to less impactful than long feared, what does Russia have to offer anyone else besides weaponry that has been mostly outperformed by NATOs' and oil available from other sources? And this, combined with Russia's demonstrably declining economic fortunes, raises the specter of Russian military and political leaders wondering if they might be better off without Putin. JL

Martin Fornusek reports in the Kyiv Independent:

Russia's image as a reliable ally just suffered another blow as Iran's Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei was killed in US-Israeli strikes. "(Bashar) Assad, (Nicolas) Maduro, and now Khamenei. Putin has lost three of his closest pals in little more than a year. The domino of deposed dictators continues, and Putin's fall one day is inevitable." While Iran has provided Russia with weapons for its war against Ukraine, Tehran's has benefitted from Moscow's know-how for quashing domestic dissent during the crackdown on anti-regime protests. (But) "Russia is entangled in the Ukrainian war and already struggling. It's not like Russia has all these resources to fight many fronts."

Ukrainian Forces' Zaporizhzhia Sector Advances Continue With Heavy Fighting

Helmet cam footage released in the past day suggests the intensity of fighting in Zaporizhzhia oblast as Ukrainian forces continue their clearing of areas initially considered under Russian control but which probing attacks revealed were thinly held, presenting an opportunity for elimination of understaffed Russian units and reoccupation by Ukrainian troops. JL

Sofiia Syngaivska reports in Defense Express:

Helmet cam footage shows close-quarters engagement with Russian forces in the Zaporizhzhia sector, documenting intense fighting during clearing operations on the outskirts of Stepnohirsk. From a tactical standpoint, the operations involve systematic clearing of fortified positions, a methodical advance, "position by position, meter by meter", indicating a grinding style of warfare where incremental territorial gains come at high effort and risk. The Zaporizhzhia sector has remained strategically significant as Ukraine's counteroffensive continues to push back Russian forces. 

Russia's Top-Down Command Exacerbates Comms Loss, Ukraine Assault Gains

Ukraine's startling success in amplifying probing tactical attacks into a successful counteroffensive has much to do with the Russians' loss of Starlink and Telegram access. 

But the reason that loss has had such a disproportionately large impact is that Russia's strict top-down command structure forces junior officers to rely entirely on senior commanders for permission to take any action at the frontline. This sclerotic approach causes utter dependence on communications from rear to front. The loss of such connectivity then leaves Russian troops at the front virtually leaderless and unable to do anything, making them open targets for the more opportunistic and adaptable Ukrainians, who are now decimating them as a result. JL

David Axe reports in the Center for European Policy Analysis (CEPA):

In three weeks the Ukrainians have pushed back Russia's 36th Combined Arms Army and cleared hundreds of kilometers of Russian troops. The Ukrainians still have momentum and the Russians are still in disarray. It’s not too soon to draw broad conclusions: the Russians’ dysfunction is a reminder that no technology such as Starlink is a panacea. And every technological measure has a countermeasure. Widespread loss of connectivity is crippling (primarily due to Russia's top-down command structure). Russian troops at the front, unfamiliar with the terrain, often relied on distant commanders to guide them, one kilometer at a time. Junior officers cannot execute on their own without input from headquarters. 

Nvidia's Huge Numbers Spark Fear Of More Disruption, Financial Instability

Damned if you do and damned if you don't. Nvidia posted huge quarterly numbers this week, which would ordinarily allay investors' persistent recent fears about AI weakening. But in the 'Alice Through the Looking Glass' world AI has created, those numbers are being interpreted by many investors as further evidence of the economic disruption and vulnerability to come.

With Nvidia dominating in so many aspects of tech, there is growing concern about concentration and about the negative impact AI is going to have on the broader economy. JL 

Dan Gallagher reports in the Wall Street Journal:

Nvidia now makes more revenue in a single quarter than most chip companies generate in an entire year. In a market awash in new AI fears, that’s no longer enough. Nvidia’s shares fell more than 5% Thursday. Fears of AI disruption that have pummeled software stocks have also weighed on the tech giants investing heavily in AI build-outs. Microsoft is down 17% this year while Amazon has fallen 10%. That is a vibe even Nvidia can’t fully counter. The company’s runaway success could be seen as a sign of the destabilization to come, given the massive amounts of capital spending that are filling its coffers while financially weakening the world’s largest companies—and employers. Worries about the financial health of its biggest customers will keep growing. Fears of AI sparking large-scale layoffs also raise the risk of a public backlash against the technology. decrease; red down pointis down 17% this year while Amazon.com has fallen by 10%. 

Russian Soldiers Say Officers Executed Comrades For Refusing To Attack

As recent Ukrainian successes in breaking Russian defenses raise further questions about the Kremlin's ability to staff its units, additional revelations about widespread executions of Russian soldiers by officers under intense pressure from above reignite periodic whispers about declining Russian morale at the front due to abusive commanders, insufficient supplies and hopeless tactics. JL

The BBC reports:

Russian  soldiers have reported seeing comrades being killed on site for refusing to return to combat. One of them claimed to have witnessed a commander executing four men at close range, while another described finding around 20 bodies of soldiers who were killed by their own comrades, a practice known in Russian military jargon as “zeroing,” or eliminating their own men. Reports describe a collapse of discipline and chain of command, with extreme punishments applied to soldiers who refuse to participate in suicide attacks, known among the troops as “meat storms,” in which successive waves of men are sent to the front lines to exhaust Ukrainian forces.