Not Only Is Russia Not Winning, It Doesn't Know How To Win

It is the second part of that headline which may be the most important. 

It is apparent that Russia is not winning on the battlefield. But it is the fact that, after over four years of trying, they don't know how to win. The Russian command has tried everything: armor, motorcycles, mass infantry 'meat' attacks. Nothing has worked. They are almost out of weaponry and men, but more importantly, they are out of ideas. JL

Anne Applebaum reports in The Atlantic:

Suddenly, many people understand the Russian narrative is wrong: The Ukrainians are not losing. The Russians are not winning, and more important, they don’t know how to win. It is hard to see how the Russian army can move forward, because the front line is a no-go zone, 20 miles wide. Everything inside is visible to drones, which means any Russian truck, tank, or infantryman is instantly identified and easily hit. Because Russian commanders keep attacking, the Ukrainians are killing and wounding thousands of enemy soldiers. Putin is running out of air defense, too, making it difficult for the Russians to supply their troops. That also helps Ukraine target Russian infrastructure. At some point the front line will become a demilitarized zone, similar to North and South Korea, patrolled by drones. After that, it could become a border, one not be recognized by either side, but a major defeat for Putin, whose central goal - the removal of Ukraine from the map - would never be realized.

Ukraine Recaptured 600 Sq Km So Far This Year, Signaling Momentum Shift

As of earlier this morning, Ukraine has recaptured over 600 square kilometers of territory, and is continuing to maintain aggressive counteroffensive operations, taking a major momentum shift away from the Russians. 

Pokrovsk, which the Kremlin claimed to have taken six months ago, remains the scene of heavy fighting, a reality which has contributed to Russian forces inability, so far, to focus on Ukraine's heavily fortified fortress belt. The devastating mid and long range attacks on Russian logistics are also hindering the Kremlin's plans, making it difficult to supply, transport and assemble sufficient forces for attacks. JL

Anna Pruchnicka reports in Reuters:

Ukrainian  forces have recaptured more than 600 square km of territory so far this year, the latest sign of shifting momentum. In May alone, Ukraine recaptured 100 square km more of territory than it lost and Ukrainian forces continue to ​maintain the initiative. The area around Pokrovsk, which Russia has been trying to capture fully since mid-2024, was among the most intense places of fighting. Russia claimed to have captured it last December. Oleksandrivka and Huliaipole in the southeast and south are also sectors where the heaviest fighting ​was taking ⁠place.

Why "Nvidia Inside" May Power PCs and Consumer AI Adoption

One of the concerns affecting AI growth is the slower than expected uptake from corporations and consumers. Cost is certainly part of that equation, but so is a related - and unanticipated - caution in figuring out how best to use AI. Which is why Nvidia's announcement that a new line of PC chips to be installed in Windows laptops could truly revolutionize the market. 

For a technology billed as changing how humanity lives and works, AI needs to be as convenient and easily accessible as possible. PCs, and laptops in particular, are, in addition to cell phones, the the path to that missing impetus. That Nvidia has chosen Windows-based models first is both a knock on Apple's AI efforts to date, but also a warning shot against an anticipated rival who should never be counted out of any tech initiative. Moving into PCs is a smart evolutionary tactic in Nvidia's long term dominance strategy. JL

Dan Gallagher and Asa Fitch report in the Wall Street Journal:

Nvidia is betting its new line of PC chips, with its AI cachet, set to be in Windows-based computers later this year, will succeed, upending order in the PC world that has prevailed for the past five decades. The move puts Nvidia in a position to supercharge the market for AI-enabled computers and disrupt incumbents in the process. Intel and other players in the PC market haven’t been able to convince huge numbers of consumers or companies to buy new computers because of the AI capabilities of their chips. 270 million PCs were sold last year, up 9% from 2024. That isn’t a stellar increase amid an AI boom that is supposed to transform how people work and live. The total is below its Covid-era peak of 340 million in 2021. It will likely be much easier for Nvidia to sell people and companies on new AI-ready computers than it has been for Intel or AMD—or, Apple.

"Puffy-Looking and Weird:" Putin's Physical and Mental Decline Is "Obvious"

Some say he is being misled by his subordinates. 

But given his control over Russia's people and information sources, the more likely explanation is that he, like his ally in the White House, simply refuses to admit that anything is amiss, believing that the Big Lie, if repeated often and loudly enough, will overawe his enemies. Until it doesn't. JL

Robert Fox reports in The Indepedent:

Putin now appears to be imitating his frenemy Donald Trump in his increasingly volatile unpredictability. This makes him more dangerous. Victory in Ukraine seems remote – and the lack of progress is stinging Putin into new actions and provocation. (But) Putin’s claims and boasts seem wide of the mark. He said the war would be won, and Russia wanted chunks of four oblasts in Ukraine that his army had failed to dominate completely by force of arms. This war is unsustainable for another year and probably Putin knows it: another cause for concern for his state of mind and political judgment. As the Russian leadership becomes psychologically bunkered, the risk rises  Is Putin “is getting weirder? Yes.”

Momentum Shift: In May, Russia Lost Double the Ground It Lost In April

The overarching strategic question is no longer whether the Russians can turn this situation around - because it is increasingly apparent that they have neither the resources nor the leadership to do so - but at what point losing the territory they have remaining becomes irreversible. JL

Mick Ryan reports in Futura Doctrina:

Russian forces surrendered a net 93 square miles of Ukrainian territory over the four weeks to 3 June, double their losses in the preceding month. Ukraine’s drone strikes in the Pokrovsk sector destroyed 105 Russian artillery systems in May, twice April’s tally, and a Kremlin-affiliated milblogger conceded Ukrainian drones are preventing Russian forces from rotating troops. Ukraine  announced fire control over the Crimea to Donetsk corridor on 29 May. Open-source analysis has logged more than a thousand geolocated Ukrainian strikes in the Russian rear since the start of 2026, with 35% hitting ammunition, fuel and equipment depots, 20% hitting transport and 7% striking air defences. Western analysts count more than 125 destroyed trucks on the route.

Multiple Sources Point To Declining Russian Battlefield Combat Effectiveness

By a variety of measures that multiple sources employ, Russian battlefield combat effectiveness is declining, resulting in growing Ukrainian offensive success. 

The Russian declines are reflected in measures including the loss of territory, increased casualties and failure to either penetrate Ukrainian defenses or to halt Ukrainian offensive operations. JL

Alex Stezhensky reports in New Voice of Ukraine:

Multiple sources point to declining Russian combat effectiveness on the battlefield, even though they use different mapping methods to assess territorial gains and losses. Analysts said the current battlefield situation, with Ukrainian and Russian positions often overlapping and the “kill zone” — an area of heightened drone strike risk — expanding, makes precise calculations of both sides’ gains and losses more difficult. Each source likely uses different methods to measure Ukrainian and Russian advances, but all reach broadly similar conclusions about combat performance at this stage of the war, pointing to a slowdown in Russia’s offensive pace and increased Ukrainian offensive activity.

The Absurdity of Wall Street's SpaceX IPO Projections

This article appeared Friday morning, before the big market crash. Tomorrow, investors will see whether the panic continues or whether the chest-thumping AI hype machine recovers and begins to turn things around. Either way, increasing questions are being raised about the assumptions underlying the boom. 

And at the core of those questions lies the biggest assumption of all: that such projections, at this stage of an historic rally, have any relationship with probability, let alone reality. Believe what you will, based on your own experience and the guidance of those you trust, but given that no one has ever seen such numbers before, ask why this time should actually be different. JL

Barry Ritholtz reports in The Big Picture:

Thinking back in 2012 about 2026 was AI the top of your list? Intel rallying after the US government took a 10% stake? Korea up 4X? GameStop short squeeze? Did you anticipate the pandemic, the rise of EVs, the invasion of Ukraine, or either Trump election? January 6, or October 7? The world is composed of countless co-variables - things we cannot predict, but also secondary effects and unforeseen consequences that are even more impossible to forecast - the further out you look, the possible outcomes increase exponentially. Allow me to present Exhibit A in whatever subsequent litigation arises: “SpaceX’s revenue could reach $3.4 trillion in 2040, according to Morgan Stanley. The firm’s adjusted earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation and amortization in 2040 could top $2.7 trillion."  It is hilarious anyone imagines they can forecast revenues and/or profits a decade and a half into the future, let alone $3.4 trillion.