A Blog by Jonathan Low

 

Sep 9, 2026

Ukrainian M1A1 Abrams Tank Survived 20 FPV Drone Strikes With New Protections

A Ukrainian M1A1 tank survived 20 strikes from Russian FPV drones and survived. The tank was protected by additional cage armor and active (outwardly explosive) protective blocks. 

This experience suggests that if more powerful asymmetric defensive solutions can be developed at scale, tanks may be able to return to their preeminent pre-drone battlefield role. Among the other solutions found to be effective is hedgehog protection which is particularly useful against fiber-optic drones because the hedeghogs can cut those drones' fiber-optic cables. JL

Defense Express reports:
A Ukrainian M1A1 tank withstood hits from 20 enemy FPV drones. This vehicle was additionally covered with cage armor and active protection blocks, underscoring the high survivability level of this vehicle and quality of improvised protection solutions. Hedgehog protection is recognized as even more effective in terms of tank survivability  In an interview, one of the surviving tankers expressed confidence that if they manage asymmetric solution, tanks will be able to return their dominant role on battlefield. The very fact of improvised solutions in various variations, specifically on Abrams, already extends the tanks' life on the modern battlefield.

30% of 'Russian Troops' On Lyman Front Are Foreigners, Eager To Surrender

Ukrainian units fighting on the Lyman front, where they have pushed the Russians back so far that a once threatening salient has been eliminated, are reporting that as many as 30% of the 'Russians' they are fighting are foreigners from Africa, Latin America and Southeast Asia.

The implication is that the Kremlin's recruitment woes are more serious than has been reported. This also explains some of the Ukrainians' success in the sector because many of these non-Russian fighters were forced into serving under false pretenses so are more likely to surrender when given the chance than are native Russians. JL

Ivan Khomenko reports in United 24:
On the Lyman front, foreigners now account for roughly 30% of personnel in newly deployed Russian units. The proportion of foreign nationals serving in Russian formations within Ukraine's 66th Mechanized Brigade's area of responsibility has continued to increase. Many come from African, Latin American  and Southeast Asian countries and were recruited into Russian service through deception. When Russia deploys a fresh company into the brigade’s area of responsibility, approximately one platoon can consist entirely of foreign personnel. These recruits generally receive limited military preparation before being deployed on combat missions. The brigade has linked this practice to an increase in cases of foreign fighters surrendering to Ukrainian forces. 

Drone Strikes Are Pounding Russian Economy, Raising War's Cost For Putin

There are two elements to this story. The first is that the fact of the damage being inflicted by Ukraine's long range strikes on Russia's economy can no longer be considered some quixotic anomaly. They hurt and Ukraine is now in a position to make them keep hurting, raising the long term financial impact on the Kremlin and its ability to continue waging a wasteful war. 

The second aspect of note is that when the Wall Street Journal and other respected media like it highlight these costs, it means that global decision-makers have taken note so that this failure on Russia's part is part of the consensus impacting perceptions of relative strength, which ultimately drive resource allocation and investment. Which is a long way of saying that, to some degree, Putin has already lost, even with China's backing and even if Russia doesn't actually lose the war in the classic, historical sense. The only question is how the final endgame gets resolved so the world's economy can move on. JL

Alexander Osipovich reports in the Wall Street Journal:
Ukraine's long-range drone strikes are inflicting pain on the most strategic sectors of the Russian economy. The costs are adding up. The Ukrainian effort is being felt by ordinary Russians who were previously shielded from the war’s consequences. The broader economy was already slowing after an earlier wartime boom. The most damaging aspect of Ukraine’s drone campaign has been its targeting of oil refineries, which led to fuel shortages and rationing measures over the summer. The price of gas is up 19% this year. The run-up has confounded efforts by Russia’s central bank to curb inflation, which is running at 6% annually. Attacks on ecommerce logistics hubs have caused more than $10 billion in damage to infrastructure and goods, and will result in at least $12 billion in lost sales over the next 12 monthsThere were 993 airport closures across Russia in August, a roughly fivefold jump from half a year earlier

After Beating Russians In South, Ukraine Shifts Key Brigade To Hit Them In Donbas

Ukraine's 46th Airmobile Brigade has spent years fighting off the Russians in Zaporizhzhia, Kherson and other southeastern Ukrainian battlefields. But with this year's successes in largely negating the Kremlin's threat to that area, the Ukrainian command secretly shifted them over the past two months to the Donbas where they have contributed to the beating of the Russians there.

This move reveals two new truths about the war's evolution. First, that the Ukrainians have become more focused on operational secrecy in order to mask their moves and gain tactical advantage. The second, which is not explicit, is that Kyiv now has the ability, perhaps the freedom, to make such shifts as the Russians facing growing difficulties in troop and equipment strength, compounded by their chronic leadership failures. JL

David Axe reports in Euromaidan Press:
Ukraine is moving forces from the southeast to defend Kramatorsk and Sloviansk. The 46th Airmobile Brigade began that move in July. The reshuffle around Kostiantynivka is part of a wider effort to redistribute Ukrainian troops along the 1,200-km gray zone threading through Ukraine. Gen. Mykhailo Drapatyi took over as commander-in-chief on 22 July, with a mandate to unwind the Soviet-inherited command model Ukraine has fought this war with, and favors decentralized command. The 46th spent years fighting in southeastern Ukraine, but it's no longer needed along the southern gray zone after Ukraine's counteroffensive this year halted and then rolled back Russian forces, stabilizing what was once Ukraine's most vulnerable flank. A carefully planned series of Ukrainian counterattacks has now quietly cut a salient of Russian troops marching on Sloviansk. The Ukrainian attacks may compel the Russians to pull back.

French AI Startup Raises Record $3.5 Billion To Lessen EU Dependence On US

A French AI startup has raised $3.5 billion on two premises which may increasingly drive global AI investment. 

The first is that the company is shifting its strategy to develop data centers and other infrastructure in addition to AI models so as not to compete head-to-head with Anthropic, OpenAI and Google. That underlines an evolution in the industry as concerns about overinvestment in model development grow while support for the tangible 'nuts and bolts' needed for the anticipated future still offer opportunity. The second premise is that many countries are leery of becoming too dependent on US companies, especially given the aggressiveness of the current government's foreign policy and so welcome a non-US and non-Chinese alternative. JL

Adam Satariano reports in the New York Times:
Mistral, a French AI company, raised 3 billion euros, or $3.5 billion, to help move away from solely developing A.I. models that compete directly with Anthropic, OpenAI and DeepSeek. Instead, Mistral will also build data centers and other infrastructure. Mistral is taking advantage of growing concern among businesses and governments in Europe and elsewhere about overdependence on US technology. The new money will be used for frontier A.I. models, but also to provide infrastructure and engineering help to integrate A.I. Organizations will be able to use Mistral’s models or open-source models made by other companies, including Chinese firms like Z.ai. Mistral’s strategy centers on demand for A.I. “sovereignty,” in which Europe wants more control over how the technology is built and used. Mistral is building data centers in France and Sweden, as organizations seek ways to keep their data stored in Europe.

Sep 8, 2026

Lyman Front Returned To May 2025 Lines By Ukraine, Disrupts Kremlin Donbas Plan

Ukrainian counterattacks on the Lyman front have now mostly eliminated what was left of the Russian salient in that sector. This has pushed the front line back to where it was over a year ago, in May 2025. 

In addition to stabilizing that portion of the front, the Ukrainian attacks - and Russian retreats - have disrupted the Kremlin plan to assault Ukraine's Fortress Belt this year. JL

Nasa Niva Media reports:
Ukrainian  troops have eliminated a significant part of the Russian salient north of Lyman. From May 22 to September 5. 2026, Ukrainian troops gradually attacked the flanks of the Russian salient, after which they pushed the enemy back towards the Zherebets River, Nevske, and Makiivka. According to analysts, the front has returned approximately to its May 2025 configuration. The results of an entire year of Russian offensive operations in the sector have been lost. According to pro-Russian military channels, tactical failures could escalate into more serious problems due to "incorrect assessment of the situation and systemic lies in reports to superiors."

Despite Putin's Demands, Army Command Requests More Time In Donbas

Russia's military command has requested that the Kremlin deadline for taking Ukraine's Donbas region be pushed back - for approximately the 15th time - to March 2027. This would be exactly four years after Putin's first deadline to his forces. 

Ukrainian and independent experts believe that even the latest deadline is probably unattainable due to the Russian's degraded capabilities. JL

Tim Zadorozhnyy reports in the Kyiv Independent:
Russia has again postponed its deadline to fully capture Ukraine's Donbas, now setting March 31, 2027, as the target date. The new deadline comes as Moscow continues to demand that Ukraine withdraw from the Donbas, which includes the partially occupied Donetsk and Luhansk oblasts, as part of the U.S.-led peace process, rejecting a ceasefire without such concessions. "Russians have failed to achieve any operational success in Donetsk Oblast. They have already postponed the deadlines for reaching the oblast's administrative borders 15 times." Ukraine still controls 21% to 22% of Donetsk Oblast. Moscow is demanding Kyiv surrender territory in a peace deal that Russian forces have failed to capture militarily. Putin first ordered his troops to seize the entirety of Ukraine's Donetsk and Luhansk oblasts by March 2023.