95% of Russians Attacking Kupiansk By River or Pipeline Killed By Ukrainians

Ukrainian troops defending Kupiansk can now determine with "100%" accuracy where Russians will attempt to infiltrate, either through a network of Soviet-era pipelines or over the Oskil River. As a result, 95% of the Russians are killed within 10 minutes to an hour of emerging. 

The Russians keep trying because they think their numbers will eventually overwhelm the Ukrainians. The problem for the Russians is, they are running out of numbers. JL

Asami Terajima reports in the Kyiv Independent:

The longest a Russian soldier can hope to survive for after emerging from underground pipelines is, according to those hunting them, one hour. "But it's usually 10 minutes, and that's it." (It's) an endless "whack-a-mole" fight: monitoring the pipes for exit holes, taking out the Russians that emerge, filling in the holes, then searching for the next exit point. Despite huge losses and horrific conditions in the pipes - "dozens of soldiers suffocated, committed suicide, or died in panic and delirium" - Russia continues to push men through them. It also keeps sending troops across the Oskil River either by boats or on foot. (But) 95% of the Russian troops who try to cross the river, including through the pipelines, are killed or wounded. 

Ukraine's Drones Are Breaking Russia's Defenses. The Kremlin Has No Answers

Gone are the days when Ukraine's drone forces consisted of amateurs with commercially sourced Chinese hobbyist drones. Now, thousands of expert operators aim tens of thousands of aerial and ground drones - many designed and built in Ukraine - at targets ranging from hapless Russian troops in the kill zone to industrial targets hundreds to thousands of kilometers deep within Russia. 

The effect has been devastating. At the front, Russian advances have all but ceased. In the rear, logistics and reinforcements have been forced back beyond their ability to respond to Ukrainian counterattacks for fear of drone strikes. And in Russia, 70% of the population and most of the country's industrial and energy capacity is now vulnerable, if not already damaged. The results of these developments are, quite literally, war changing. And the Kremlin has no answers. JL

Steve Hendrix and Serhii Korolchuk report in the Washington Post:

As a fifth summer's fighting begins, dozens of Ukrainian operators fly thousands of drones from underground command centers that looks more like a tech start-up than a forward bunker. High-definition monitors line insulated walls, showing a drone’s-eye view of a doomed Russian soldier in a foxhole, an enemy supply truck, or a ground robot delivering food and ammo to a forward unit. After a year in which Ukraine resisted White House pressure to cave to Russian demands, tens of thousands of drones now blanket 200 miles behind the front, targeting supply lines, command centers and air defense batteries. Along the front, aerial drones attack anything moving, a gauntlet Russians cross at tremendous cost. The deep-strike drones Ukraine launches each month grew 20 to 30 times. Mid-strike drones have expanded 1,000%. Ukraine is starting the summer with mounting confidence. "They will be in very big s---. We are going to increase the quantity of hits even more.”

Anthropic's Latest Valuation at $900 Billion Surpasses OpenAI

Anthropic, until quite recently seen as the runner-up to OpenAI in the race for AI dominance, surpassed its rival in value as a new $65 billion financing round drove it up to $900 billion, well ahead of OpenAI's $730 billion. This comes after Anthropic's annualized run rate jumped to $45 billion, besting OpenAI's $30 billion, on the strength of its coding capabilities. This not only establishes Anthropic's superior future prospects in the eyes of investors, but suggests that the company's technology is now the best on the market. 

This will come as a shock to all those 'experts' who predicted the Pentagon's labelling Anthropic a supply chain risk would limit its prospects, especially after OpenAI then cravenly agreed to all of the Pentagon's demands. Truth will out, even in tech. JL

Mike Isaac and Cade Metz report in the New York Times:

On Thursday (yesterday) Anthropic officially passed OpenAI as the world’s most valuable A.I. start-up. Anthropic raised $65 billion in financing that values it at $900 billion before the inclusion of the new capital, a deal that puts it ahead of OpenAI’s last valuation of $730 billion. The new round boosted Anthropic’s value two and a half times its previous valuation of $380 billion three months ago. Since Anthropic improved its A.I. coding technology in November, hundreds of businesses have signed up for the software. The company's “revenue run rate” - expected revenue for the year based on its current performance - crossed $47 billion this month. The company’s momentum has (grown) even as Dario Amodei, it’s CEO, has spoken out about the potential dangers of A.I. and called for regulation of the technology. That led to a bitter fight with the Pentagon.

Russian Restricts Traffic On Vital Mariupol-Crimea Highway As Drone Damage Rises

Ukrainian drones are now hitting Russian trucks on the crucial Donetsk-Mariupol and Rostov-Crimea highways with such frequency that dozens of burned out vehicles line the roads and Russian authorities are restricting civilian travel on those routes. JL

 
Stefan Korshak reports in the Kyiv Post:

Long-range drone attacks on a key Kremlin military logistical route in southern Ukraine have demolished dozens of trucks and military vehicles, forced Russian authorities to issue travel advisories, and infuriated locals, angry that Russian air defenses seem unable to protect them. The remains of at least 30 burnt heavy trucks were visible on the side of the road along the Donetsk-Mariupol H20 highway, and 15 were seen on the Rostov-Crimea M-14 highway. The density of heavy vehicles is so high that tourist traffic will be at risk from drone attack no matter how much distance a civilian driver tries to keep from the vehicles Ukrainian drone pilots are hitting. 

Russia Is Stumbling On the Battlefield As Ukraine Turns the Tables

It is almost impossible to find an article written in the last month which doesn't characterize Russia's Ukraine war effort as weak, stalled or fumbling. 

The implication is that Russia is not only no longer capable of beating Ukraine but may be in danger of losing. Rumors that Putin is contemplating attacking one or all of the EU 's Baltic countries are based on the theory that NATO is now weaker than Ukraine. JL 

The Economist reports:

Moscow's diminished 'victory' parade was an accurate reflection of Russia’s battlefield setbacks, and of Russia’s fear of the growing effectiveness of Ukraine’s long-range strikes. For the first time in three years the initiative has shifted in favor of Ukraine. Having got through a harsh winter, Ukraine is now turning the tide. It is imposing increasing costs on Russia by almost every measure. Not only has Russia’s spring offensive been a flop, but it lost control of 113 square kilometres over the past 30 days. The Russian dead to wounded ratio is rising due to drones. Russia has been forced to impose restrictions on the size of convoys in Donetsk to make them harder to detect. Russia’s size and Ukraine's systematic campaign to degrade air-defences makes protecting valuable assets impossible. “It’s hard to see how things can improve for Russia. If you’re briefing Putin, it’s a pretty bleak picture.”

"We Are Fighting Russia and We Know Why It Is Losing"

It is almost midway through 2026 and the dominant narrative of this war has become Russia's - and Putin's - weakness. There are many factors contributing to the supplanting of the Kremlin's now widely discredited 'inevitability' line including Ukraine's superior drone warfare and Russia's reduced access to soldiers.

But the most decisive may be the emergence of a cadre of experienced, rational Ukrainian combat leaders who know how to use information and motivate troops. The writing of a brigadier general from most militaries could understandably be written off as mere bloviating, but this one happens to be 34 years old, with four years of brutal combat to guide him. It is the the development of such commanders who are now implementing Ukraine's increasingly successful strategy. JL

Brigadier General Denys Prokopenko reports Ukraine Pravda:

The Russian military command is a rigid, vertical Soviet-style hierarchy, where every step is regulated from above. This system was created not for combat effectiveness, but to ensure political control over the army. Loyalty has always been more important than competence. Such a structure leads to operational paralysis in modern war. Ukrainian forces cultivate a command philosophy based on decentralization and empowerment developed for combat on a dynamic, non-linear battlefield. This war is not just a clash of armies, but the test of two diametrically opposed systems. Ukraine's is a network model built on trust, command culture, morale, social cohesion and the ability to adapt. (The result): a kill zone up to 20 km from the front, ambushes, search and strike operations, fire raids, pinpoint surgical counterattacks, encirclement of Russian units, hundreds of enemy prisoners, Russian equipment, warehouses, etc. burning up to 250 km.

White House Forced To Pivot As Putin's War Failure Becomes Embarrassment

To be clear, the Trump administration would still prefer that Putin prevailed in Ukraine. 

But what's a declining superpower to do about its treasured image of invincibility when the side it has so obviously backed is getting annihilated despite everyone's best efforts? Allies can be useful, but reputation is more important. JL

Phillips O'Brien reports in his substack:

Over the past week, the Trump administration made a number of pivots in its public stance towards Ukraine: trying to start de-Putinizing themselves. Both JD Vance and Marco Rubio were part of this. Vance might be the most pro-Putin, anti-Ukraine member of the administration, boasting his “proudest achievement” was cutting aid to Ukraine - and now he claims Trump, who publicly sneered Ukraine "has no cards," is pro-Ukraine? Rubio lied outright, saying the US has not been bullying Ukraine into taking a bad deal. They are trying to convince the American public the administration is more pro-Ukraine and anti-Putin because the intelligence they are receiving is that Russia is struggling and Ukraine is doing much better, as they now understand everything they said in 2025 was wrong.