A Blog by Jonathan Low

 

Mar 17, 2026

Data Is Ammunition: Ukraine's Tech Edge Gives It Battlefield Advantage

Ukraine's ability to analyze data and adapt accordingly has been crucial to its success in thwarting the much larger Russian war machine. 

And organizing that data effectively has now given Kyiv a significant edge. The next step is implementing AI in ways that optimize decision-making in ways that conventional programming cannot. JL

Demian Shevko reports in New Voice of Ukraine:

After the invasion, Ukraine accelerated decision-making technologically. A new generation of defense startups, data-processing teams, and AI developers emerged. Integrated battlefield awareness platforms aggregate drone feeds, satellite imagery, seismic and acoustic sensors, reconnaissance, and frontline reports into a unified operational picture, enabling faster, decentralized decisions. Reaction time has been compressed to minutes. Fighting within a kill zone means processing large volumes of data as the technological scale and intensity of the battlefield is redefining how information itself determines combat. Targeting effectiveness could increase 50% by choosing the right tool for the right target. Optimizing data flows can raise effectiveness to 90%. The remaining 10% - the part that cannot be solved through conventional programming - is where AI becomes critical.

Russia Will Have Harder Time In 2026 As Ukraine 'Advances Inside the Kill Zone'

The Ukrainian war narrative is changing. Russia is now expected to have a harder time in 2026 than it did in 2025 - in itself, not exactly a banner year for Russian arms - as Ukraine's growing drone supremacy and tactical competence enables its forces to advance inside Russia's once impenetrable killzone. JL

Fabrice Deprez reports in the Financial Times:

Russia may have more difficulty advancing in 2026 than it did in 2025. Footage released last week showed soldiers from the Ukrainian 425th assault regiment fighting in the ruins of Ternove, a village mapped a month ago 3km into Russian-held territory, beyond the “kill zone”. The Ukrainian operation, which kicked off in early February, signals a real ability to push back Russian forces. Late autumn, a similar push — carefully planned — reversed Russian gains in the Kharkiv region. This time, Ukrainian troops also took advantage of Elon Musk’s decision to deny Russian troops access to Starlink. The push “demonstrated that Ukraine can still conduct successful offensive operations, even with relatively few infantry, exploiting weak points along the line with proper planning and preparation.”

Ukrainian Counterattack Advances Force Russians To Redeploy On Defensive

Ukraine's counterattacks continue with multiple new advances observed just in the past seven days. This has forced the Kremlin to redeploy at least four elite naval infantry (Marine) brigades, as well as other units, from Donetsk to the south in order to try to prevent further Ukrainian incursions. But even these forces new to the embattled southern sector are on the defensive and not able to go on the offensive because of the Ukrainian's success in penetrating Russian positions. 

The Russian redeployment provides Ukraine with two benefits: it relieves pressure on its troops in the Pokrovsk sector where they have been holding off the Russians for over a year and it exposes these relatively healthy Kremlin reserves to greater casualties and equipment losses which will render them less able to attack in the future. The Ukrainian strategy at this point in the war reveals an intelligent, adaptive capability to seize opportunities and exploit them, a capacity the Russians have never seemed to grasp in their pursuit of this war. JL

The Institute for the Study of War reports:

Ukraine's counterattacks in Dnipropetrovsk Oblast are forcing Russia to redeploy forces from other fronts and from operational reserves, while Russian forces in the Oleksandrivka direction have switched from offense to active defense. Ukraine's two-drive advance in the south has already forced Russia into a reactive posture on a sector it expected to use as a launchpad for its spring campaign. Each Russian reserve unit pulled south to plug holes in Dnipropetrovsk Oblast is unavailable for the offensives Russia planned elsewhere. Continued Ukrainian counterattacks in the Oleksandrivka direction compel Russia to redirect the 5th Combined Arms Army from its push toward Orikhiv to defending against Ukrainian advances.

AI Backlash Sparks Global Demand For "AI-Free, Human-Made" Labels

A backlash against AI's increasing ubiquity is spawning demand for labels that certify products made without AI. The problem is that AI is already so deeply embedded in tech services and products that it is difficult to define what 'human-made' actually means. 

The result may be that a scale of certifications not unlike that for appropriate movies depending on age could be the solution since 'AI-free' is probably already impossible. JL  

Joe Tidy reports in the BBC:

In response to fears that jobs or entire professions are being swept away in a wave of AI-powered automation, at least eight different initiatives are trying to come up with a label that could get the global recognition the "Fair Trade" logo has. The movement to create AI-free certification systems follows gen AI tools being used to replace human work in a range of industries including fashion, advertising, publishing, customer services and music. (But) "AI is now so ubiquitous and so integrated into different platforms and services, that it's truly complicated to establish what 'AI free' means." 

Mar 16, 2026

At Huliaipole, Ukrainian Forces 'Have Seized the Initiative'

Huliaipole has become the most active sector of the front as Russian forces try to gain a victory, as strategically insignificant as it may be. There have been more Russian attacks in that area than any other over the past few days, but almost all have been repulsed with losses and the Ukrainians now believe they have seized the initiative. 

The significance of this action is that Russia has tacitly admitted it can do no more around Pokrovsk for the time being and is thus trying another target, even thought that, too, has yet to yield and real progress, especially with the Ukrainians counterattacking. JL

Ukrinform reports:

Ukrainian forces  continue to counterattack in the Huliaipole sector and along the border of the Dnipropetrovsk and Zaporizhzhia regions, regaining control of (multiple) settlements. The enemy has shifted its activity to the southwest of Huliaipole, is more active near the village of Zaliznychne, and that there are 1.5 to 2 dozen combat clashes every day. The enemy is also trying to advance toward Myrne. The Russian army has attacked the positions of Ukrainian defenders 48 times since the beginning of the day. " We (The Ukrainians) have seized the initiative on the front.”

In A Year, Ukraine Has Gone From Crisis To Freeing 400 Km, Aiding US vs Iran

The narrative sure has changed. A year ago, sonorous experts were warning of Ukraine's imminent collapse due to manpower shortages and Russia's seemingly implacable strength. Fast forward to this month and Ukraine has not only taken on the offensive initiative in the Donbas and southern parts of its land, but is helping the US defend itself against Iranian drones with Russian targeting (despite White House denials).  

The implication is that in the preceding year, despite the US government trying to assist Russia and despite Russia's brutal attacks on Ukrainian energy infrastructure in the depths of winter, Ukraine has emerged stronger. And as if that were not significant enough, Russia's attempts at offensive operations across the front this winter have uniformly failed. Given the disparity in sizes, this may not be a complete momentum shift, but it is a signal that the previous, negative narrative was superficial and, arguably, inaccurate. JL

Mick Ryan reports in Futura Doctrina and Phillips O'Brien reports in his substack:

A year ago, many were saying Ukraine was failing. Ukraine was facing a manpower crisis, would be unable to hold back the Russian steamroller and with the US now under Donald Trump, faced a bleak future. The reality ended up being rather different. From that to helping the USA defend itself is quite a trajectory. Ukraine is helping the US and Gulf States and is the only nation in the world who could have provided aid so quickly. (And) the most important battlefield development of the past year was Ukraine’s liberation of occupied Dnipropetrovsk Oblast in a deliberate, planned series of attacks. The operation resulted in Russian forces postponing their planned offensives, redeploying troops from other sectors, and reinforcing their defenses. Russia’s spring-summer offensive disrupted before it commenced is a significant achievement.

Ukraine Clearing Russians North of Pokrovsk As Another Kremlin Plan Disrupted

Taking a page from their own book, Ukrainian forces around Pokrovsk got the jump on Russian units attempting to infiltrate in yet another limited operation intended to - finally, maybe - succeed at Pokrovsk this decade. 

If the tactics sound familiar, it is because they are eerily similar to what the Ukrainians have been achieving in Zaporizhzhia and Dnipropetrovsk. That is, anticipating the Russia strategy and then acting before the Kremlin can give their orders. The significance is that this reconfirms the growing sense that, at least so far in 2026, Ukraine has seized the momentum from Russia. JL

Yuri Zoria reports in Euromaidan Press:

Ukraine's 7th Rapid Reaction Corps troops are conducting clearing operations northwest of Pokrovsk, while simultaneously striking Russian troop concentrations at the Russians' current staging ground with drones. The Institute for the Study of War confirmed Russian forces had attacked multiple points around Pokrovsk but did not advance. The Ukrainians are conducting active search-and-strike operations in Hryshyne, systematically detecting and destroying each group before it can consolidate. The 7th Corps' goal is to drive Russian forces entirely out of the settlement.