Russia Has Suffered Reverses in Donbas - But Doing Even Worse Everywhere Else

The success of Operation Vivaldi is notable, but it would not have been possible without earlier Ukrainian victories in Zaporizhzhia, Oleksandrivka and Huiliapole which forced the Kremlin to redeploy troops from the Donbas to the south. 

In addition, the Ukrainian virtual neutralization of Crimea, the degradation of the Black Sea fleet and the systematic assault on Russian economic targets in the center of the country have strategically, with patience over time, repframed the war. JL

The World Strategist reports:

The eyes of the world are still on the Donbas. But while the world looks east, Ukraine is winning its war elsewhere. It is winning in the south, where its troops have taken more territory in one season than Russia has in the Donbas all year. The operation along the Oleksandrivka and Huliaipole axs in Zaporizhzhia Oblast regained more than 400 square kilometers since the operation began. (And) the counteroffensive compelled Russia to divert forces from the Donbas. It is also winning in Crimea, which drone strikes have turned into a beleaguered outpost; in the Black Sea, where Russia’s fleet has been driven to the east and crippled its “shadow fleet.” And it is winning in the deep rear, where strikes on refineries, logistics hubs and command posts are eating away at Russia’s ability to keep its war machine going.

3rd Ukrainian Corps' Lyman Counteroffensive Has 'Operational Momentum'

Operational momentum means that the success of Ukraine's counteroffensive north, east and now south of the Lyman sector and into Luhansk, means that Ukrainian commanders can use the gains they have made to expand both the scale of their attacks and the scope of the overall assault because the Russians are struggling to respond to the multiple threats they now face on various points of the front. 

This is making it harder for the Russians to redeploy troops from one threatened sector to another because there are simply too many problems for them to address at one time. JL

Mick Ryan reports in Futura Doctrina:

Operation Vivaldi is a large, real-time proving ground for integration of UGVs into land formations, and the development of new tactical and operational methods to break out of defensive and positions. The counteroffensive has built not just tactical but operational momentum. These victories liberate Ukrainian areas from occupation, provide a morale boost for Ukrainians, and demonstrate that offensive manoeuvre is possible in eastern Ukraine. The 3^rd Corps reorganised its command systems before the offensive began, used drones to execute deep operations by striking Russian fuel pipelines and supply depots, used uncrewed ground vehicles extensively to support the infantry, and deployed ground-based radio beacons to keep its drones flying through heavy GPS jamming. This dimension of the Ukrainian counteroffensive – the return of offensive manoeuvre – matters perhaps even more than the amount of Ukrainian territory liberated over the last couple of months. 

Soviet-Era APC's Used By Ukraine Donbas Attack As Huge Kamikaze Drones

Ukraine unveiled two new technological innovations in its latest, Operation Vivaldi Phase 3 counteroffensive success in Donetsk. 

The first was the conversion of Soviet-era BTR 60 armored personnel carriers into massive ground drones which were deployed to attack the strongest Russian fortifications around Nove, the primary objective of the assault. The converted BTRs obliterated the Russian positions they struck. The second innovation was the use of new ground drones armed with grenade launchers which also successfully attacked Russian strong points without human infantry in support. JL

Daryna Vialko reports in RBC Ukraine:

Ukraine's 3rd Army Corps turned Soviet-era BTR-60 armored personnel carriers into giant robotic kamikaze drones that were used to destroy Russia's strongest fortifications. The improvised strike unmanned ground vehicles (UGVs) helped break through Russian defenses in the most heavily fortified areas. The BTR 60 was mass-produced from 1960 to 1976. The 3rd Corps used another a new tactic during Operation Vivaldi, deploying upgraded ground robots equipped with grenade launchers to attack Russian positions without direct infantry involvement.

Major Russian Defeat As Vivaldi Phase 3 Shocks: Land Gains, 250 Prisoners

In a significant Russian defeat in Donetsk, Ukraine's 3rd Brigade launched the third 'season' of its Operation Vivaldi counteroffensive. In taking Nove, a key regional hub, the Ukrainians executed a 'feint' attack for which the Russians fell, drawing them away from the real target. And to take the most heavily defended positions, the Ukrainians employed old Soviet-era BTR armored personnel carriers converted into kamikaze ground robots which advanced on the Russian defenses and then detonated with massive impact. 

The Ukrainian attack so surprised the Russians that over 250 Kremlin troops were captured, some entire units which included drone operators and artillerymen who are usually a relatively substantial distance behind the front line. This is a crushing blow for the Russians as it reveals the Kremlin's forces susceptibility to Ukraine's enhanced technological and strategic strength. JL

Olena Mukhina reports in Euromaidan Press:

Ukraine's 3rd Army Corps defeated Russia at the key settlement of Nove in Donetsk by pointing it the wrong way. Russia had poured its reserves into counterattacks on a feint axis and "slept through" the real strike, in the decisive third season of the Vivaldi offensive. To break the strongest fortifications, it used Soviet BTR-60 armored carriers converted into remote-controlled kamikaze robots, driven into Russia's toughest positions and detonated. Over its first two "seasons," the 3rd Army Corps and attached units retook more than 176 square kilometers and inflicted more than 3,000 casualties on Russian forces. The assault in Nove was its "third season," the turning point of the whole operation. The corps added 51 square kilometers to that taken since the offensive began. Ukrainian forces also took 250 Russians captive as entire units including drone operators, surrendered.

OpenAI Pauses Training Models After Rogue Agents Attack Government Websites

"Going off-task" is the soft euphemism OpenAI has chosen to describe the latest incident of its AI agents attacking government, corporate and academic websites. The increasingly angry victims of these hacks are less inclined to be so forgiving. 

While the company does seem to recognize the public relations cost of these rogue actions, it does not seem terribly troubled by them, evidently believing that this is the justifiable price humanity must and should pay to have access to the brilliance of its product. 'Pausing' training in hopes that this behavior can be curbed, if not eliminated, is the first attempt of uncertain effectiveness the company will take in what is expected to be a lengthy spate of iterative half measures in order to forestall the growing negative public reaction to AI and to AI companies' relative insouciance about it. Whether this will be sufficient to calm an impatient public is as unpredictable as the behavior of AI itself. JL  

 

Isabella Ward reports in Wired:

OpenAI paused training its most powerful AI models as incidents of agents breaching websites’ security controls or posting to third-party sites continue to pile up. On Friday, OpenAI said it had notified “dozens” of bodies, including governments, universities, and public agencies, who might have been impacted by its models during training and evaluation. The company identified cases of OpenAI agents breaching security controls and impairing the availability of websites and online services. OpenAI is also concerned by models posting information to third party sites. It found 53 incidents where its AI models had posted images input by ChatGPT users to other image-hosting sites. “This is not the first time we have hit pause, nor do we expect it will be the last."

The Secret Ukrainian Robot Offensive That Killed 3,000 Russians

New reports reveal that the operation in which converted Ukrainian aerial bomber drones dropped ground drones behind Russian lines to attack the Russians' positions was even more effective than first believed.

The Russians did not believe 'the attackers' were Ukrainian and were even more surprised when they turned out to be machines. The consternation caused by the surprise robot attack distracted and then panicked the defending Russians who were then faced with Ukrainian infantry advancing towards them as the robots assaulted their rear. The result was a Russian retreat in a sector they had held for over a year. JL

Verity Bowman reports in The Telegraph:

In the dead of night, a Ukrainian drone crossed the front line in northern Donetsk, one of a hundred to pass overhead that day. But this was no ordinary drone: a second machine was hanging beneath it, a small robot on wheels, packed full of explosives. The carrier drone flew on past the last Ukrainian positions, 10 miles into Russian-held territory, before dropping its cargo to the ground. Electronic warfare jammed Russian drones, so its crews could not see. Ukrainian drones and artillery struck Russian infantry positions, forcing them into cover. There, the remote-controlled vehicle sprang into action, tracking down Russian soldiers before detonating its payload. Not one pair of 3rd Army Corps boots touched the ground. The feat – part of Operation Vivaldi – helped Ukraine kill 3,000 Russians in months, while recovering 48 square miles of occupied Ukraine. 

The Army of Drones' Success Leads Ukraine To A Growing Army of Robots

From an Army of Drones to an Army of Robots is not just a leap of technology, it is a leap of scale - as well as of innovation and imagination. 

What it means is that the success of the drone war against Russia has led Ukrainian military leaders and tech innovators to conceive of a re-imagined military in which a growing number of tasks can realistically be repurposed for machines, many of which will be autonomous. The implication is that Ukrainian commanders are increasingly confident they can beat the Russians on the battlefield by utilizing their technological superiority and adaptability. JL

Phillips O'Brien reports in his substack:

"In 2022 we launched the Army of Drones. Today they account for 95% of battlefield strikes and Ukraine has over 700 UAV manufacturers. Now, (we are initiating) the roboticization of warfare." This week, the the Ukrainians combined Unmanned Aerial Vehicles (UAVs) and Unmanned Ground Vehicles (UGVs) to help retake land. They used UAVs (drones) to drop UGVs (think small, cheap, robotic vehicles) behind Russian lines. the air-dropped UGVs tracked down Russian soldiers behind the line of contact, which led to faster Ukrainian advances from the front. Credible reports are circulating that the Russians have been pushed entirely out of Lyman. Vivaldi's success (and the overall Russian failure on the front line) has been greatly aided by the ongoing Ukrainian mid-range strike campaign on Russian logistics.