Innovating Faster and Scaling Harder, Ukraine Is Winning the Drone War

The Ukraine war narrative has changed decisively this winter and spring. No longer are western media publishing portentous warnings about Ukraine's impending doom. Instead, reports of relentless Ukrainian bombardments deep inside Russia which are disrupting its defense production and oil export capabilities are widespread.

The impetus for this has been the growing productivity and sophistication of not just Ukrainian defense industries, but their coordination with the military, leading to heightened effectiveness and efficiency which the Russians have been unable to match. JL

Igor Kossov reports in Euromaidan Press:

Ukrainian drones are on a winning streak. The assessment is coming from all directions — from Russian milbloggers to international military analysts to Ukrainian warfighters.  Multiple sources have recently posted that Ukrainian drones are flying farther, hitting more precisely, and are getting harder to stop. Military sources and analysts connect this trend to two factors: Ukraine having a more dynamic military-industrial system that's better for innovation and Kyiv learning to harness its fuller potential. The most dramatic results are coming from mid-range UAVs, which strike targets at distances between 20 and several hundred kilometers. This is wreaking havoc on Russian logistics, air defense, and other high-value targets.

Ukraine's "Give the Russians No Rest" Strategy Revealed In Pokrovsk Counterattacks

My, how the tables have turned. For several years since the Russian invasion of Ukraine, the Kremlin was believed to be pursuing an attritional strategy that would wear down the Ukrainians. It didn't work. 

Now, ironically, in Pokrovsk, the city Putin had vowed - but failed - to take to demonstrate his inevitable victory, the Ukrainians have launched a similar strategy aimed at giving the Russians no rest so as to degrade their manpower, logistics and dwindling hope of achieving any of Putin's war aims. JL

Decimus reports in Daily Kos:

The Ukrainians have once again slammed shut the door on the Russians as those in inner Pokrovsk tries to break out into the surrounding exurbia. The Russians infiltrated into Hrysyhne been beaten, but the Ukrainians are pushing them back into areas of concentration across the city.  All about Pokrovsk, the doors are locked except for the one to the south where the Russians first entered.  And now they are being shoved back there. The coordinated push is to destabilize Russian operational tempo, the strategy of “Give them no rest," an intense, multi-layered effort to deny Russian forces any rest, stability, or respite. This centers on high-intensity, round-the-clock, attrition-focused operations rather than territorial liberation, aimed at degrading Russian manpower and logistics faster than they can be replenished.

Amazon Plans To Sell Its AI Chips To 3rd Parties, Challenging Nvidia

Amazon has identified a growing, extremely profitable market and plans to attack it. This one just happens to the AI chip market which Nvidia has dominated. But it is rare for such a vast opportunity to remain the property of one provider for long - and AI now appears to be following that pattern. 

Amazon is one of the few global enterprises with the scale and heft to challenge Nvidia. Assuming Amazon follows through this will be the tech equivalent of Godzilla versus King Kong.

Anthony Lopopolo reports in Quartz:

Amazon CEO Andy Jassy is floating the prospect of selling the company's Trainium AI chips directly to external buyers, putting a dollar figure on the company's chip operation for the first time and placing its annualized revenue above $20 billion. Access to Amazon's chips is currently limited to Amazon Web Services, with customers paying for cloud-based usage rather than owning hardware. Selling to AWS and external customers would put annual revenue at $50 billion. The figure spans Trainium, the AI accelerator chip; Graviton, a general-purpose processor; and Nitro, a chip that helps run Amazon's EC2 server. All three are growing at triple-digit rates year over year. "All AI thus far has been done on NVIDIA chips, but a shift has started."

Russia Reports Ukraine Fielding Unjammable, Undetectable, Far-Flying AI Drones

The prospect of AI-driven drones which are unjammable, undetectable by current means and fly twice as far as current models has gone from anticipation to reality. The new models are being called "Martians."

But what is especially interesting about this is that the new AI drones were revealed not by Ukraine, but by Russia's TASS news agency, which was informed by its own troops. JL

Stefan Korshak reports in the Kyiv Post:

Ukraine's military has fielded a new-generation tactical drone that is immune to jamming, can’t be seen by detectors looking for robot aircraft’s electronic signature, and has about twice the range of swarms already dominating the battlefield. Russia's TASS news agency reported "(Ukraine) has begun using new drones called ‘Martians,’ which, unfortunately, have a cruising speed of up to 300 kilometers/hour [186 miles / hour], no longer fly under operator guidance but are controlled by AI. They are undetectable by electronic warfare systems, and drone detectors don’t spot them.” 

Long Range Ukraine Strikes Have Cut Russian Drone Attacks

Ukraine's strategic targeting of Russian defense industry plants, especially those that make drones and components necessary to make Shaheds and missiles, have significantly reduced the Kremlin's ability to strike Ukraine cities. 

The Ukrainians have systematically targeted air defenses in order to make it easier for its drones and missiles to get through, then has struck the key Russian defense industry sites that make the weapons the Kremlin has been using against Ukraine. Though Russia continues to attack Ukraine nightly, the trend line, which nine months ago was heading us, has now flatlined due to the Ukrainian counterattacks

David Axe reports in Trench Art and Joseph Place reports in United 24:

Nine months ago, the trend pointed to Russia producing 7,000 Shaheds a week, a volume that could’ve overwhelmed Ukrainian defenses. But, in recent months, Shahed strikes flatlined. The Russians still hit Ukrainian cities with 1,500 Shaheds a week. But there’s no longer a trend toward more Shahed attacks - due to Ukrainian deep strikes. Ukraine has grown its ability to combine asymmetric warfare, intelligence ops, long-range FPV drones, and long-range missiles. In 2026, long-range strikes against war-related infrastructure inside Russia have become the norm thanks to Ukraine’s long range strikes. Notable attacks include the Kapustin Yar launch site, the missile fuel plant in Tver, Kremniy El microchip factory in Bryansk, and the Votkinsk defense plant. “No region of Russia, including the Urals, can feel safe in 2026,” Russian Security Council chief Shoigu admitted.

Russia Is Losing Momentum As Ukraine Advances With High-Risk Initiative

For four years, Ukraine's leaders have realized something that the corrupt Russian oligarchs in the Kremlin never could: you win a war by destroying the enemy's military, not by trying to scare its people.  

The Russians had learned to cow their populace with secret police and bribes. That translated into their believing every country's citizens were like theirs. But they have learned the hard way just how wrong they were. Instead of randomly bombing civilian targets with no strategic value as the Russians have, the Ukrainians have developed a strategy which is now working very effectively. They have identified the keys to Russian military and economic capability and are targeting them, relentlessly. Whether it is oil refining, defense production, air defense or troop concentration and logistics, the Ukrainians are wearing down the Kremlin's ability to fight a war. And, oh by the way, after a tough winter, frequently without heat and light, the Ukrainians remain defiant, as their troops advance while inflicting increasingly catastrophic casualties on the Russians. JL

Vijainder Thankur reports in The EurAsian Times:

Having survived a Russian winter offensive that nearly crippled its power generation, Ukraine is now seizing the initiative. Russian strikes against Ukraine are becoming smaller and less effective. The losses sustained by Russian drones and missiles suggest Ukrainian air defenses remain potent. Ukraine has taken advantage of Russia through bold, relentless escalations. It has taken the initiative throughout the war, escalating the conflict, often spectacularly, by crossing Russian red lines, striking Russia’s strategic assets. Ukraine is now launching more attack drones against Russia than vice versa. Russia's strategy to win the war focused on denuding the will of the Ukrainian people to continue fighting, rather than on crippling the ability of Ukraine's military. Russian forces face an adversary which has continuously innovated and taken risks, fighting a war with just one rule—it cannot lose.

As 90% of Software Developers Use AI, Tech Cos Scramble To Vet It

The good news was supposed to be that AI could generate a whole lot more code than mere humans and in less time. 

The caveat, if you will, is that as with any new development, lots of that code could be buggy or downright dangerous. So someone has to review it. And while some Panglossian (Google it) Silicon Valley hypesters think MORE AI is the answer, lots of other aren't so sure, but there aren't yet enough humans capable of stepping up. Which means lots of extra work and missed deadlines. This will no doubt solve itself someday. When that day will be remains to be seen. JL

Mike Isaac and Erin Griffith report in the New York Times:

90% of software developers report using A.I. to help them work, while 71% who write code use A.I. to help them. With a little human guidance, an engineer could set an A.I. agent writing a program in a fraction of the time human coders need. What came next was a deluge of code. Many tech companies are now dealing with the ripple effects. Someone has to review the A.I.-generated code to test it. (But) there are not enough engineers to review the explosion of code for mistakes. Open source software projects, which anyone can contribute to, have been inundated with A.I.-enabled additions. Flaws in the code can lead to security vulnerabilities or software that crashes. For some in Silicon Valley, the solution to the code bloat seems obvious: A.I.-powered software review agents that spot errors.