Ukraine's Siege of Russian-Occupied Crimea Has Begun

By air and sea, Ukraine's increasing volume of attacks on Russian military targets in occupied Crimea have isolated the peninsula. This has made the occupation more difficult and less beneficial economically, militarily - and diplomatically. 

The one asset most of the world -including the Russian people - thought would be forever under Putin's control is now threatened. JL

Ilya Timtchenko reports in the Center for European Policy Analysis:

This is very much a siege in the modern sense, with serious effects resulting from militarily enforced isolation. Russia has reduced Crimean train services, vacationers are canceling their bookings, and drivers are forced to line up for fuel. Ukraine has repeatedly targeted military logistics routes, including the bridge linking Kherson Oblast with Crimea, causing a sharp fall-off in traffic. It has also hit oil refineries, Russian vessels, and air defenses. Kyiv is increasingly confident that it can build a kill zone over occupied territories to push the Russians out. As reunification of Crimea with Ukraine becomes a realistic possibility in the eyes of Western skeptics, Ukraine can expect more diplomatic and military support for de-occupation. The prospect of losing Crimea increases Putin’s troubles, since the one victory Russians were certain his regime could guarantee is now being questioned.

"If Ukraine Burns, So Will Moscow:" Russian Capitol Chaos From Huge Drone Strike

The massive Ukrainian drone attack on Moscow, following by a few days Russia's intentional strike on a World Heritage site cathedral in Kyiv has, by now, received extensive coverage. Which was, arguably, the primary point. 

The Kremlin's unwritten social contract with the Russian people was that Putin be allowed to pursue his increasingly ineffective invasion of Ukraine so long as the elites in Moscow and St Petersburg were not affected. That is clearly no longer the case. In addition to the economic dislocations, Muscovites and St Petersburgers must now face the reality that their lives could be in danger in their homes, on the way to work, shopping at malls or in otherwise random situations due to Ukraine's drone attacks. This despite the Kremlin bolstering air defenses around the Russian capitol. These attacks not only reduce gasoline availability (plus raising prices) and reduced air quality as well as creating a physical hazard, but they serve to undermine a key tenet of Putin's rule, which was that he was a master strategist and manager. That reputation is in doubt. along with its implication of weakness, which, in Russia, does not usually bode well for longevity of rule or life. JL - 

Abbey Fenbert and Tania Myronyshena report in the Kyiv Independent:

Ukrainian forces struck the Moscow Oil Refinery in the Russian capitol on June 18, the second attack on the facility in a week. (It) is one of the largest in Russia, supplying 40% of Moscow's fuel and the majority of the region's gasoline. It provides aviation fuel to all four of Moscow's major airports. The attack caused major disruptions to air travel, with Aeroflot canceling 170 flights. Footage from residents show fires at the oil refinery, the top floors of a high-rise building, and damage to a building at the Sadovod shopping center. Drone debris also damaged a fitness center, a shopping center and an industrial site in Lyubertsy, while fires and damage were reported on houses in Chekhov and Pavlovsky Posad. Russia bolstered air defenses in the capital, deploying new Pantsir-SMD-E s on  rooftops but these have not stopped Ukrainian drones from striking the city twice in the past week.

Ukraine's Lyman Pincer Attacks Trap Russians With Zherebets Under Fire Control

As they have done in other sectors at other times, the Ukrainians lured the Russians into a trap, allowing the Lyman salient to grow before launching pincer attacks from north and south while also establishing fire control over the Zherebets River crossings the Russians use to attempt resupply and reinforcement. 

The result has created the makings of a cauldron in which Russian forces are trapped, increasing casualties and limiting their ability to defend against the Ukrainian breakthroughs. JL

RFU News reports:

North of Lyman, Ukraine launched a deep breakthrough into the northern part of the Russian salient, placing Russian soldiers inside in an operational encirclement. To the south, Ukraine conducted a similar pincer maneuver on Russian forces in Shandriholove. While Russian forces in these pockets are not fully encircled, Ukrainian pressure on their rear means Russian reinforcements are immediately tied down between the Ukrainian pincers. As Ukrainian forces expanded their breakthrough, attempts to rush reinforcements across the Zherebets River turned into another series of disasters. The Ukrainians have established firm FPV fire control over the crossings with even single Russian soldiers being targeted trying to cross the river, while the vehicles used to transport them to the crossing points further in the rear are hunted down by Ukrainian drone operators.

Why AI Chip Demand May Push iPhone Prices Above $1,299

Apple's iPhone and other mobile manufacturers are about to raise their prices on the newest models as increasing demand versus limited supplies for DRAM memory chips from AI manufacturers drive up costs. 

This is another example in a growing list of reasons why AI is likely to be inflationary. In this case, chip makers garner greater profit margins from enterprise chips relative to those made for consumer products. The interesting question is to what degree this may depress demand for mobile devices, which is already sparking a search for new sources, such as those in China. JL

Nicole Nguyen and Rolf Winkler report in the Wall Street Journal:

The global memory chip shortage is coming for the iPhone. Based on the current markup of memory and storage chips, projections show the price of the base model could rise by $200 or more. AI demand has created an unprecedented run on two types of memory chips, DRAM and NAND flash storage. Only a few companies, including Samsung and Micron, supply the market. Data centers training and running large language models are willing to pay a premium for these chips, so manufacturers are shifting production toward enterprise-scale components and away from the consumer business. The iPhone 17 Pro contains 12 gigabytes of DRAM and flash storage starting at 256 gigabytes. Prices for these components are projected to quadruple. The gross profit margin on the $1,099 iPhone 17 Pro was 47%. To maintain that margin for the iPhone 18 Pro, Apple would have to charge $1,371. The starting price tag would more likely be $1,299, yielding a 44% gross profit.

Putin Is Losing His War Against Ukraine Across Every Measurable Dimension

Militarily, economically, strategically, reputationally...by every relevant measure of success, Putin and Russia are now losing the war with Ukraine. 

Trump's admiration for him remains a strategic asset - perhaps his only other being Xi's belief that China must support Russia to further its own ambitions. But even Trump and Xi see the current failure and looming exposure. The only question now is whether Putin can devise an end to the war that does not also entail an end to his power and, probably, his life. JL

Mick Ryan reports in the Lowy Institute:

Putin, a leader who expected to take Kyiv in days, and who four years on is losing troops he cannot replace while his economy stalls and his standing erodes, is managing a slow defeat. On the battlefield, the momentum as moved in Ukraine's favor. In an age of open-source transparency, where anyone can follow the front line as well as nightly drone exchanges, it is hard to sell a story of advance when the data shows stagnation and constant long-range strikes by Ukraine. Russia’s disinformation machine is still busy, but it finds less purchase. Mass is not strength. Russia brought more people and more tanks but could not learn and adapt as fast as Ukraine, while Ukraine’s edge has come from bottom-up innovation and the speed with which a good idea reaches the front. Institutional adaptability has been the decisive military quality of this war.

AI Is Making Ukraine Anti-Drone Systems Faster, More Accurate and Deadlier

The goal in deploying autonomous systems is to identify and destroy Russian drones (or vehicles and soldiers) faster and with greater accuracy while reducing the risk to Ukraine's human soldiers.

Ukraine's military, with the help of its buoyant tech sector, is now deploying drones that can do that at scale. As a result, Ukraine has eliminated dozens of Russian drones with AI-driven systems and expects that number to increase exponentially. JL

Maria Varenikova reports in the New York Times:

Earlier in the war, Ukraine relied on heavy machine guns, electronic warfare and missiles to bring down Shaheds. Last August, the Ukrainian military began to deploy interceptor drones piloted by humans. Now, Ukrainian interceptors have made dozens of A.I.-assisted strikes on Shahed-type drones since November. A.I. is used in terminal guidance systems, in which a weapon locks onto a target and completes its strike without further human intervention. A.I. systems can autonomously identify enemy vehicles. Some can single out enemy soldiers. The goal of the A.I.-driven system is to significantly shorten the time needed to detect and track enemy drones. With even more autonomy, interceptors could launch automatically after radar detects an attack.

Russian Mala Tomachka Motorbike Attack Smashed Before Ukraine Lines Reached

Mala Tomachka has become the latest addition to the honor roll of legendary Ukrainian battles: Kyiv, Mariupol, Bakhmut, Chasiv Yar, Pokrovsk et al. 

A small settlement in Zaporizhzhia oblast, it has held out against Russian attacks for 1,500 days,; essentially since the Russians invaded. 

This latest defeated Russian assault is significant primarily - or perhaps only -  because it is emblematic of the way the war is going. The Kremlin orders a fruitless assault which is annihilated before the troops even reach Ukrainian defensive positions. A waste of Russian men and resources. JL

Valentyna Romanenko reports in Ukraine Pravda:

Ukraine's 118th Mechanised Brigade repelled a mechanised assault by Russian forces on Mala Tokmachka in Zaporizhzhia Oblast. Despite changing tactics and employing technical innovations, the Russians were defeated before they reached the settlement. The Russians deployed more than 30 motorcycles along three separate routes. The assault featured several innovations: some of the motorcycles were fitted with plough-like devices designed to clear minefields and several were equipped with mobile electronic warfare systems. (But), neither the timing nor the modifications helped. 26 Russian troops were killed, 10 were wounded and left behind, with Russian forces making no attempt to evacuate them. The Ukrainians destroyed 20 motorcycles and 10 all-terrain vehicles. The brigade reported no casualties among its own personnel. Mala Tokmachka has held out for 1,500 days.