US, Dutch Retired F-16 Pilot Volunteers Contract To Fly For Ukraine

There have been rumors for some time that retired NATO F-16 pilots were volunteering to fly those planes for the Ukrainian air force. Recent reports suggest that this is now reality.

Retired American and Dutch F-16 pilots on six month contracts have reportedly been flying air defense missions, particularly around Kyiv. This development makes great sense as it takes time to train new pilots and existing Ukrainian pilots can have a hard time learning the new plane. The foreign pilots can also share their experience with the Ukrainians. JL

Stefano D'Urso reports in The Aviationist:

New reports claim Ukraine has stood up a new squadron with Ukrainian, U.S. and Dutch pilots flying combat missions in the country’s F-16s. The recently created squadron is playing a central role in the defense of the Kyiv Oblast, and helping Ukrainian pilots harness the F-16’s capabilities. Foreign pilots are hired through temporary contracts for six-month rotations in the country. These pilots are said to fly air defense missions daily using their experience to counter drone and cruise missiles. Supplementing Ukrainian F-16 pilots with experienced foreign pilots would help avoid a reduction of the pilots available until enough Ukrainians are trained. And would helping Ukrainian pilots master the F-16 beyond what they learned during the reduced-length training set-up to provide the F-16 to Ukraine.

Recent Russian Military Setbacks Reflect Broader Strategic Failure

Next week will mark yet another anniversary for Russia's stymied invasion of Ukraine. The past week's Ukrainian counteroffensive - sparked by the cut off of Russian Starlink access - reveals both the weakened state of the Kremlin's forces but also their growing dependence on and vulnerability to pressure from forces it cannot control. 

The broader context has also exposed Moscow's strategic failure: its barbaric attack on Ukrainian energy infrastructure in the depths of winter has failed to break Ukrainian resolve, nor has it led to even the hint of concessions. And European support for Ukraine in the face of the Trump administration's Putin favoritism has only strengthened Europe's determination to push back. Meanwhile, Russian oil exports continue to fall, its shadow fleet is being driven from the seas and its economy is weaker. All in all, 2026 is off to a bleak beginning for the Kremlin. JL

Mick Ryan reports in Futura Doctrina:

Since SpaceX shut down Russian access to Starlink in Ukraine, this frontline disruption has had measurable battlefield effects. (At the same time) the systematic multi-winter targeting of Ukraine’s energy infrastructure has failed to break Ukraine’s will. Nor has it forced any political or military accommodations from the Ukrainians. At some point in 2026, Putin will have to reckon with the failure of his strategic bombing campaign. (And) Russia's efforts over the past four years to degrade European support for Ukraine has failed. The Europeans have not only reinvigorated their alliance but their defence industry and are pushing back against Russian aggression.

Ukraine's Armor Offensive Scores Major Gains As Russian Drones, Comms Disabled

When Ukrainian forces first became aware of the cutoff for stolen or smuggled Russian Starlink terminals - then compounded by a Kremlin ban on Telegram usage - they believed they had a tactical opportunity to strengthen their positions, particularly in Zaporizhzhia and Dnipropetrovsk oblasts. 

A week later and this has grown to  become a full fledged counteroffensive which has recaptured hundreds of kilometers of territory while threatening Russia's southern field army with encirclement and possible destruction. That the Ukrainians have been able to optimize this breakthrough so rapidly speaks both to their capabilities for adaptation and exploitation, but also to the weakened state of the Russian military. JL

David Axe reports in Trench Art:

Ukrainian forces aren’t just counterattacking in southeastern Ukraine, they’re counterattacking in armored vehicles—a rare event as drones made mechanized assaults suicidal. Ukrainian forces are ranging across the miles-wide “gray zone” as the loss of Starlink and Telegram access has thrown Russian forces into disarray and made the Ukrainian counteroffensive possible. Taking advantage of the collapse in Russian communications, Ukrainian troops are counterattacking all along the 700-mile front. In Zaporizhzhia Oblast and Dnipropetrovsk oblasts, they have pushed south of the Vovcha River. Their aim is to cut off and destroy the Russian 36th Field Army which remains powerful but exposed.

Pentagon Threatens Anthropic Over Permit Refusal For Surveilling Americans, Autonomous Weapons

The Trump Defense Department is threatening to sever its contractual relationship Anthropic over the AI company's refusal to permit use of its model for surveillance of Americans and for autonomous weapons development. While the loss of government contracts could be significant, especially if the administration expands its threat to cut off any company using the Anthropic model, the reality is that Anthropic is perceived to be far ahead of competitors for the myriad uses the military envisions. 

In addition to pulling ahead of competitors as the professional AI of choice, Anthropic and its founder have been the most outspoken about the risks of AI, particularly in the hands of unscrupulous users. It is likely that some sort of compromise will be crafted - but it is also likely that the administration will then violate the terms of that agreement to suit its own ends. JL

The Pentagon is considering severing its relationship with Anthropic over the AI firm's insistence on maintaining some limitations on how the military uses its models. The Pentagon is pushing leading AI labs to let the military use their tools in the most sensitive areas of weapons development, intelligence collection, and battlefield operations. Anthropic has not agreed to those terms, and insists two areas remain off limits: the mass surveillance of Americans and fully autonomous weaponry. The Pentagon is getting fed up after months of difficult negotiations. (But) officials concede it would be difficult for the military to replace Claude, because "the other companies are behind" (for) specialized government applications.

Drone Operator From Russia's Elite 'Rubikon' Unit Defects To Ukraine

Russia's Rubikon drone unit is elite - and feared - as an extremely effective conductor of drone warfare, arguably the only Russian unit to emerge from the Russian invasion with that reputation. 

What is most interesting about this case is that the young defector describes an atmosphere which, rather than supportive and proud as one might expect from an elite unit with advanced technological skills, is similar to those reported from other frontline Russian units, with fear and intimidation commanding a generally harsh environment. JL

Dmytro Shumliasnkyi reports in Militarnyi:

Miroslav Simonov, who served in Russia's Rubkon drone unit, defected to Ukraine. He is originally from Novosibirsk and worked in real estate. During a trip to Moscow, he was detained by police and, under the threat of a criminal case, he was conscripted. He described the unit as harsh, with psychological and physical pressure, humiliation, and threats of being sent to “meat assaults” if conflicts arose with commanders. He cites a turning point when a Molniya UAV strike hit the wrong coordinates, killing a civilian girl in Kupyansk. He was shocked by the battalion’s chat reactions and the command’s apparent approval of the incident. Following that, Simonov decided to defect through contact with Ukraine's "I Want To Live" project. 

For Past 2 Months, Russia Could Only Replace 75% of Losses Inflicted By Ukraine

Data reveal that the Kremlin's ability to replace its losses in Ukraine is diminishing. In historical terms, this is a signal that the Russian army is getting weaker because it cannot regenerate itself, meaning that its ability to pose a threat is declining. 

Ukraine identified this potential and announced a plan to inflict 50,000 Russian casualties a month while reducing its own by greater use of aerial and land drones. But the supply side of the equation is that Russia is running out of manpower inside the country and in adjacent Central Asian nations, as well as from tricking or cajoling other young men from poor countries around the world. JL

Phillips O'Brien reports in his substack:

Ukraine is causing losses significantly above Russian replacement rates. In December 2025 and January 2026, with figures supported by western intelligence agencies, Russia's losses were, 33,200 lost and 27,400 replaced, then 30,618 lost and 22,000 replaced. So for two months the Ukrainians have caused 63,818 losses which the Russians have only been able to replace with 47,400. This is statistically a very large gap, with new troops only making up for 75% of the losses suffered. To go from equal loss/replacement levels to a 25% gap in a short period is striking. It also happened because the Russians (are) struggling to attract new recruits. Armies tend to get relatively stronger or relatively weaker. They rarely tread water for long periods. The trajectory over the last two months is that the Russian army could be getting weaker.

Russian Daytime Snowmobile Assault Meets Thermal Drones, Ends In Massacre

Using snowmobiles might have worked in Dr Zhivago's time a century ago...had they been invented. But now, with the use of drone-mounted thermal cameras, both the machines and compacted tracks they leave are easily identified. 

Attacking in daylight might not have been worse than attacking at night, given the available technology, but it wouldn't have worked either way. And the fact that snowmobiles can only carry a few troops does not make it a likely engine of breakthrough. Another hard lesson learned by now dead Russian soldiers. JL

Euromaidan Press reports:

Russian forces daytime attack near Korchakivka in northern Ukraine's Sumy Oblast ended in defeat for the Russians. The Ukrainian 71st Air Mobile Brigade detected and bombarded snowmobiles pulling sleds. The problem for the Russians is that snowmobiles were developed before the proliferation of  thermal drones with heat-sensing cameras. The snowmobile-riding Russians couldn't thermal eyes of the 71st Airmobile's drones. And compacted snow shines brighter on thermal cameras than loose snow does. Ukrainian drone operators have learned to find even the best camouflaged Russians by following their tracks across the snowy landscape. (Another) drawback  drawback is the number of personnel it can carry and their exposure to the elements.