Having Destroyed Russia's Black Sea Fleet, Ukraine Is Now Striking Its Baltic Fleet

Russia's Black Sea Fleet is mostly resting on the bottom of that watery expanse, having been systematically eliminated by Ukraine's aerial and nautical drones. 

The Ukrainians have now turned their attention to Russia's Baltic Fleet, headquartered near St Petersburg - Putin's beloved home town - and hundreds of miles from the front. The Baltic Fleet also has a storied history, as one of the signal events of the Russian Revolution was the revolt of Baltic sailors at the Kronstadt base. It now provides ships to escort the Kremlin's shadow fleet of tankers so was attacked by Ukraine yesterday in what signaled the opening of a new front in its war on Russian military capabilities. JL 

Thomas Newdick reports in The Warzone:

The Russian Navy base at Kronstadt, near St. Petersburg, came under Ukrainian drone attack overnight, in a strike against the Baltic Fleet. Ukrainian drones targeted the base, including the Steregushchiy class corvette Boikiy, highlighting Russian warships' vulnerability hundreds of miles from Ukraine’s borders. By targeting Kronstadt, the attacks signify the opening of a new front in the drone war, against the Baltic Fleet. Located on Kotlin Island in the Gulf of Finland, 18 miles west of St. Petersburg, Kronstadt is one of the principal bases associated with the Fleet. Since any naval threat approaching St. Petersburg must pass Kronstadt, the base acts as the maritime gateway to Russia’s second-largest city. Until now, there have been very few confirmed Ukrainian attacks of any kind on the Baltic Fleet compared with the extensive campaign waged against Russia’s Black Sea Fleet.

Russia Shows Weakness On Battlefield So Increases Ukraine Civilian Attacks

Russia's terror attacks on civilian targets in Ukrainian cities are increasingly being called out by the global media for what they are: a Putinesque tantrum spurred by impotent rage at the inability of its military to win on the battlefield, despite their initial advantages in manpower and weaponry. 

It is important to note that the New York Times, in which the article below appeared this week, has been a persistent Ukraine skeptic, seemingly never missing an opportunity to cluck its tongue at Ukrainian weakness and futility. That it is now joining the media consensus about Russia's failing Ukraine prospects suggests that it can no longer defend its previous editorial bias nor the waning power of the regime that initially prompted it. JL

Lara Jakes reports in the New York Times:

Russia has rained Ukraine with hundreds of drones and missiles, but cannot mask the increasing signs of Moscow’s weakness in the war. It's advance in Ukraine has slowed to a halt. Its combat performance is waning. Its recruitment efforts have fallen short. Domestic discontent is growing. Europe is providing new support to Ukraine, whose battlefield gains have turned the tide in the war, (and) whose military feels increasingly confident about their battlefield position.”

Losing 1000s of Trucks To Drone Hits, Russia Is Facing Logistical Dead-End

Resource-strapped and economically sinking Russia is now losing hundreds of trucks  a day  and thousands per month due to Ukrainian drone strikes on the mid range logistical routes supporting its military in Zaporizhzhia, Donetsk and Lunhansk.

Once again, the Ukrainians strategic identification of Russian weaknesses followed by a plan to make them worse is producing results for which the Kremlin has no answer. JL

David Axe reports in Trench Art:

The campaign of AI drone strikes is intensifying. And now the Russians are losing hundreds of trucks every day. Far more than they can replace with new production. While Russian ground forces possess tens of thousands of cargo vehicles, and buy thousands of new ones every year, they're currently on track to lose thousands per month. Russia lost 7,000 trucks in May, around 6,500 in April and slightly more than 6,000 in March. The number of old Cold War cargo vehicles in storage in Russia is 40,000 or 50,000. But that's just 100 days' worth of trucks at the current rate of loss. (And) the stored trucks have been parked "for decades without proper maintenance. Most are junk." 

Putin Hometown St Petersburg Struck On First Day Of Conference He Is Hosting

Message from Kyiv delivered. JL

Elmira Aliieva reports in NBC News:

Ukraine launched hundreds of drones at Russian targets early Wednesday, sending black smoke rising above St. Petersburg just as the event dubbed “Putin’s Davos” was due to get underway in the city. The attack on President Vladimir Putin’s hometown, which hosts the flagship annual economic forum, was the latest signal from Kyiv that it can strike deep inside enemy territory and embarrass the Kremlin. Emergency crews were responding to the attacks and assessing damage, St. Petersburg Mayor Alexander Beglov said. Kyiv appeared to be sending a message, targeting the city hosting one of the Kremlin’s most important international events.

Ukraine Is Now Talking About Winning, Not Just Surviving

The Ukrainians are beginning to dare to believe. Not that they will survive, which now seems assured, but that they may prevail. In fact, in some sectors of the Ukrainian government, the biggest concern is that Ukraine's allies will become overconfident and expect victory too soon. 

The strategic challenge on which Ukraine is focusing is not just a cessation of hostilities, but that Russia be left too weak to contemplate any war again soon. JL

Patrick Tucker reports in Defense One:

A growing number of European officials are saying what four years ago was unthinkable: Ukraine isn’t just surviving its war with Russia, it is thriving and may be on a path to victory. Just as important as new drone tech are new tactics. Given latitude to experiment, Ukrainian fighters have developed robot-forward infantry concepts, like combined-arms attacks by airborne and ground systems. Ukraine is more willing than Russia to rebuild its doctrine, acquisition, and supply systems around autonomous warfare. “All the systems are being linked with each other and with people” to create a distributed network at various locations to be activated when needed. "One day we will have just 10 guys responsible for approving interception automatically to the target.” (But) for Ukraine, victory will require more than cessation of hostilities. The invading country must be left “much weaker.”

Drunk, Unconscious Russian Troops Enable Ukraine To Collapse Zaporizhzhia Flank

The cascading elements of this catastrophe for Russia only get more amazing. First Russian troops in a forward position drink themselves to unconsciousness - some, literally, to death - and they are undiscovered by their commanders for almost a week. Then, talk about it on Russian comms is intercepted by Ukrainian forces, who investigate, probe - and launch an attack to take advantage, which may threaten the collapse of the entire Russian flank in Zaporizhzhia oblast.

That Russian troops would be so hopeless and forlorn is, perhaps, not surprising. But the degree of leadership failure, indiscipline and incompetence is a telling indication of why the Kremlin is now losing ground in Ukraine. JL

RFU News reports:

In Zaporizhzhia oblast, dozens of Russian soldiers couldn’t take it anymore and literally drank themselves to death at the frontline. Ukrainian intelligence intercepted a radio call in which Russian troops discussed a mass alcohol poisoning in the sector. Ten bodies were discovered at an observation post in Kamianske after the troops there had drunk themselves to death. The dead soldiers were not collected for six days, indicating a lack of command awareness. Ukrainian drones then destroyed a Russian site for ammunition and drones leaving Russian troops without drone coverage. Ukraine launched attacks on the weakened Russian positions toward Stepove to further isolate Stepnohirsk, pushed back the Russian flank, and now threatening to collapse the Russian flank.

Anthropic Filing Before OpenAI For IPO Is Financially Significant

In the IPO race, being first matters. A lot. And being second matters, too, just not in a positive way. 

As Anthropic has filed for its IPO ahead of OpenAI, the financial impact may be significant because economic history demonstrates that the first to file - assuming they are well-managed, and Anthropic is considered the better-run enterprise - is then in the best position to take advantage of the money and talent flowing into the market. Companies filing later don't perform as well as their predecessors. This situation is especially acute now because SpaceX, which is not a pure AI company and has a plethora of well-known leadership and performance challenges, is going to market before the others in this latest generation of tech companies. Despite that, it will raise a huge amount of money. The issue is not that SpaceX is first, but that whoever is third will struggle on a relative basis. That is why Anthropic's filing before OpenAI matters. And don't be surprised if OpenAI tries to jump the queue. JL

Asa Fitch, Kate Clark and colleagues report in the Wall Street Journal:

Anthropic, recently valued at nearly $1 trillion, has filed confidentially for an initial public offering. Banks have told Anthropic and OpenAI that whoever makes it to market first will define the new industry and have first dibs on the large pools of cash eager to back new AI companies. There are clear advantages to being first. As importantly, there are major disadvantages in being second. Research has shown that IPOs come in industry clusters, and that companies listing later in a cycle don’t perform as well. That stands to reason, given that higher-quality companies with deeper moats tend to go public early, triggering a barrage of followers that might not be as strong. And even in a hot market, there isn’t an infinite amount of money to go around. “SpaceX (IPO next week) is going to consume a ton of capital, and the guy that goes second is going to have a better position than the guy that goes third.”