A Blog by Jonathan Low

 

Oct 10, 2026

20 Senior Officers Killed In Donetsk Missile Strike, Largest Such Hit of the War

A targeted missile strike on two regional Russian army headquarters command posts in occupied Donetsk has revealed, according to subsequent research, that at least 20 mid and senior level officers were killed, effectively decapitating an entire Russian Combined Arms Army which also oversaw the central military district of Donetsk.

The significance of this strike is not just the loss of leadership, but the destruction of two commands which were coordinating the Russian offensives against Ukrainian positions in central and northern Donetsk. This loss has contributed to the faltering Russian assaults in those areas as well as aiding the success of Ukraine's Operation Vivaldi. JL   

Taras Safronov reports in Militarnyi:
At least 20 Russian military officers were killed on August 26 in a missile strike on Donetsk. Of these, 18 died that same day, while two others later died from their injuries. Storm Shadow/SCALP-EG missiles were used during the strike. One of the strikes hit a building at 97 Ilyich Avenue, which housed research and industrial institutions before the war. The other target was an underground parking garage with 600 parking spaces beneath an unfinished residential complex—six missiles struck that location. Both sites were being used as command posts by the Russian army. They served at the headquarters of the Central Military District and of the 41st Guards Combined Arms Army. This is the largest known incident to date involving the deaths of Russian Army officers during the Russo-Ukrainian war.

Daily Life For A Ukrainian Drone Unit Hunting Russian Soldiers

Drone units are moving closer to the front line as their increased operation of ground drones - UGVs - makes that aspect of the job more immediate. 

But whether piloting drone strikes on Russian targets or managing logistics with ground drones, Ukraine's drone teams have become highly skilled - and deadly - experts in their task. JL

Diana Delyurman reports in the Kyiv Independent:
Four men live, sleep, and work in a cramped shelter, drone operators from Ukraine's 66th Mechanized Brigade attached to the 3rd Corps. Every member of the crew can do every job: assemble the drone, prepare it for launch, navigate for the pilot, and fly the strike. The gray zone is less than 10 kilometers away. Crews usually rotate every couple of weeks, but heavy Russian shelling near the positions can delay a rotation. In one corner is a desk with several screens, one showing a video call with other units, another a live map of Donetsk Oblast. The areas marked gray or occupied are different from the picture Russian commanders paint. The soldiers listen to the call as they prepare to join a combined strike. Coordination between neighboring units plays a key role. The 66th Brigade also ranks among the top five units for UGV use, according to the Delta system's June 2026 rating. 20 operators now cover most of the battalion's logistics, running 100 to 150 missions a month.

Infantry Attacking In Armored Trucks Were Key To Vivaldi Breakthrough

There have been numerous times during the past two years when the notions of maneuver warfare and armored assault were declared dead due to the harsh realities of the drone-dominated battlefield.

But Ukraine's recent success suggests that, in fact, combined arms can work if sufficient preparation and support are planned for and allocated. In the contemporary context, that means lots of preliminary aerial drone recon and bombardment then followed by ground-and aerial drone-accompanied assault. Just as with the optimal implementation of technology support working in conjunction with humans in business, so in warfare are the same complementary organizational shifts most likely to succeed as they did in Vivaldi. JL

David Axe reports in Euromaidan Press:
Defying critics who insisted vehicles couldn't survive in the drone-patrolled gray zone, the 3rd Corps repeatedly deployed mechanized forces as it counterattacked across a 100 sq km salient the Russian 20th and 25th Combined Arms Armies had extended toward Sloviansk. Maneuvering for months under a veil of secrecy, the 3rd Corps exploited gaps along the flanks of the 20th and 25th CAAs, breaking into the Russian armies' rears and forcing them to pull back across the Zherebets River to avoid encirclement. Armored vehicles were key to the Ukrainian effort. They sped assault troops into battle, dropped them off under fire, and then supported them as they clashed with the Russians. Only after assault routes were scouted and cleared of mines and Russian strongpoints did the manned vehicles and their  infantry roll out. Ukraine's command believed that, with adequate support, the vehicles could accomplish their missions—and survive. And they did.

OpenAI Reduces Revenue Projection By $20 Billion Less Than Expected

A $20 billion shortfall in revenue is what used to be called real money. 

It is not clear that really qualifies as such in the AI age, but with the markets already skittish about fears that the AI hype has far exceeded the realistic potential market, any sign of doubt can be seized upon by investors as another indication of the bubble popping. JL

Mark Sweney reports in The Guardian:
OpenAI revealed it is making $20bn less in projected revenue than it recently indicated, raising questions about the growth rate in demand for AI. The ChatGPT-maker told investors its revenues for this year would reach $50bn, a projection based on sales up to the end of September. This is significantly less than the $70bn it had signaled last month. News of the $20bn gap buffeted US tech stocks, with the Nasdaq closing down by 1.4%. Nvidia fell 2.9%, Oracle was down 5.5% and Micron declined 4.8%. The (shortfall) arose from attempts by OpenAI investors to provide a more direct comparison with projected revenue measured by Anthropic, which hit $65bn in forecast revenue by the end of July. Anthropic includes revenue from sales via partners, such as Amazon’s AWS and Google Cloud, while OpenAI does not. Last month, Sam Altman, the chief executive of OpenAI, said the company would not float on the stock market this year as had been expected

Oct 9, 2026

On Sumy Front, Ukraine Counterattacks Push Back Russians, Mirror Vivaldi Success

The lessons and benefits from Operation Vivaldi's success on the Lyman front are now being transferred to other sectors. 

On the Sumy front, Ukrainian special forces have launched a series of coordinated counterattacks which have surprised the Russians in this lightly held area, pushing them back. Just as at Lyman, this local tactical advance could become a broader offensive effort - and strategic opportunity - forcing the Kremlin to again redeploy troops from other areas to stem the threat. JL

RFU News reports:
Ukraine is beginning to turn local counterattacks into a wider problem for Russia on the entire Sumy front. The Ukrainians created a bridgehead for further operations while improving their tactical positions along the frontline in the Sumy direction. Ukraine’s Vivaldi Operation in the Lyman sector proved that carefully planned and executed counterattacks can catch the Russians off guard and roll back their advances. Russia might (be forced) to send reinforcements from the Donbas, to reinforce the less vital sector of Sumy in order to try to halt the Ukrainian advances. This would further weaken their offensive power and reduce their reserves, just as their rate of advance has already dropped significantly compared to last year.

Ukrainian Saboteurs Paralyze Russia's Rail Lifeline To China, North Korea

Sabotage of essential Russian railways in Siberia by Ukrainian special operations units and local partisans has delayed by months or destroyed approximately $2.4 billion in Chinese and North Korean military supplies which has contributed to the Kremlin's current battlefield problems. JL 

Mykola Zakharchenko reports:
Russian Railways deploys militarized engineering corps whose purpose is rapid track remediation. (But) by starving the Russian grid of high-voltage power and digitally hijacking automated switches, Ukrainian units and partisans have left millions of tons of raw materials and foreign munitions completely flash-frozen across 9,000 kilometers of Siberian taiga. Spaced every 40 to 60 kilometers along these isolated corridors sit massive traction substations. They draw high-voltage power from the regional grid, step it down through complex oil-filled transformers, and feed it directly into the overhead lines. Instead of planting charges on track beds, clandestine units shifted focus to the 110kV step-down transformers and relay hubs.  A section of damaged steel track might be repaired in hours. Replacing specialized high-voltage infrastructure can take vastly longer because the equipment is complex, heavy, difficult to transport, and often built for specific requirements.

Russia Spent 2 Years, Huge Losses Capturing Pokrovsk - Then Failed To Exploit It

The pattern of Russian advance in Donetsk has become unmistakable: destroy the Ukrainian-held objective city before exhausting themselves in taking it. 

This may be gratifying at some crude, nihilistic peasant Russian level, but it t renders the former transport junction and supply depot uninhabitable while making it virtually useless as a base for further advance, let alone of future economic value. Pokrovsk is but the latest example. Captured after two years of brutal, bloody attrition, its smoking ruins then became... another mound of rubble to be bypassed rather than advanced from. And so, rather than using Pokrovsk effectively as a springboard, Russian troops are again facing a similar cataclysm of death and damage as they try and fail to take the Fortress Belt. JL

The World Strategist reports:
Russian forces had been grinding toward Pokrovsk for two years. When it finally fell in early 2026, the Kremlin heralded it as the prelude to the collapse of Ukraine’s Fortress Belt. What actually transpired was a Russian military that scored a tactical victory but had no idea how to capitalize on it. Russia had spent so much time and resources capturing a city that no longer mattered, it had little left for the next phase of the campaign. As its operational plans disintegrated under Operation Vivaldi, the northern flank of Russia’s Southern Group of Forces became “acutely vulnerable” to Ukrainian counterattacks and interdiction missions. The Ukrainian military regained momentum and destroyed the Kremlin’s ambitious plans. Russia remains “functionally incapable” of militarily capturing all of Donetsk Oblast in 2026