Russian Lines At Vovchansk Breached By Ukrainian Forces

Yet another successful counterattack by Ukrainian forces on a different sector of the front in which depleted Russian units were overwhelmed and lost their positions. JL

Roman Petrenko reports in Ukraine Pravda:

Ukrainian soldiers from the 23rd Assault Regiment of the 2nd Khartiia Corps carried out an assault operation on the Vovchansk front in April-May during which they crossed the Russian line of contact. The fighters mopped up the Russian forward defensive positions to the depth of a company strongpoint. The groups advanced through forested areas on the left and right flanks near the village of Starytsia. A total of 50 personnel were deployed on the left flank and another 15 on the right. The troops destroyed "more than 10 dugouts and [killed] 12 Russian soldiers".

Ukraine Permits Putin's 45 Minute "No Victory" Parade

What if you held a parade to display your military might but your army can't spare any tanks (cuz most of them are now scrap metal littering the fields of Ukraine) and a significant number of the parading troops are North Korean cuz so many of yours are dead or wounded. And, to avoid the embarrassment of Ukraine attacking your downgraded parade with impunity, you had to get them to agree to a ceasefire.

Awkward! JL

Phillips O'Brien reports in his substack:

Putin was was terrified to show up. For weeks leading up to the parade, he threatened and blustered to get the Ukrainians to allow him the hold the parade without attack. He ringed Moscow with an extraordinary number of anti air defense systems taken from other parts of Russia: 100 or more in the days leading up to the parade. (But) in the end, Putin called on Trump to come to his rescue, desperate as he was to get the Ukrainians not to attack. It was a hollow victory. The Russian military could spare no military equipment (and maybe Putin was afraid of it being used against him). There were hardly any foreign leaders attending. The parade revealed Putin’s deep insecurities, the lack of military equipment in Russia, the reliance Putin has on Trump to protect him, and the growing sense in Ukraine that they are  on top of events. Even with Moscow covered with the densest air defense network, the Russians were worried that they could not protect the parade from a Ukrainian attack.

Kremlin's Assault Tempo Craters As Ukraine Flips the Drone Math

Russia is taking less ground but at a higher rate of loss this year. This is the lethal arithmetic that Ukraine has figured out but the Kremlin hasn't. 

It is the result of deploying more and better drones over a wider sector of the front. And like math always does, it reduces the failing Russian effort to stark numbers which cannot be explained away by chest-thumping rants or high-blow theories. You are either taking ground or not. And the Russians are not. JL

Anton Zemlianyi reports:

Russia continues to prioritize capturing Donetsk Oblast—yet remains unable to reach even its administrative border. The slowing pace of Russian advance demonstrates the difficulty of occupying the region—and the Kremlin knows it. Ukrainian forces deploy 30% more front-strike drones than Russia. The result is visible in the price Russia now pays per square kilometer of Donetsk soil. In the first quarter of 2026, Russian forces in Donetsk Oblast lost an average of 316 soldiers killed or wounded per square kilometer, up from 120 a year earlier. In some sectors, losses have doubled. Russia is buying less ground at higher cost than at any point this year. The April reversal is what the cost curve looks like when it finally crosses the line.

Putin's 'Victory' Parade Once Projected Power. Now It Reveals Weakness

This year's Moscow Victory Day parade featured no tanks or other armored vehicles, no big new missiles - but lots of anti-drone protection. 

And in a comedown missed by no knowledgeable observers, the Kremlin was forced to agree to a 1,000 POW prisoner swap in order to assure that Ukraine would not attack Red Square during the parade. Pathetic. JL

Peter Dickinson reports in The Atlantic Council:

Vladimir Putin insists his invasion of Ukraine is going according to plan, but indications that all is not well are becoming increasingly difficult to disguise. While his army struggles to advance in Ukraine amid catastrophic casualties, the Ukrainians are bombing high-value targets deep inside Russia with regularity. With Russia needing all its armor to replace losses in Ukraine, finding enough has become increasingly challenging. In 2023, the Kremlin could only muster a single tank, sparking widespread mockery. “There are farmers in Ukraine with more Russian tanks than that.”  This dramatic downgrade represents a tacit admission by Putin that he can no longer ensure security in his own capital. Putin’s obvious inability to protect his own showpiece will now underscore perceptions the regime is losing control of the narrative and has become trapped in a war it cannot win but dare not end.

Russian-Occupied Donetsk Increasingly Cut Off By Ukraine's Drone Strikes

In yet another implementation of Ukraine's comprehensive war-fighting strategy, Ukrainian forces have systematically targeted roads, railroads, storage depots and other logistics nodes surrounding Donetsk city, cutting off both the urban center and its role in supporting Russian offensive operations in that oblast. 

The result has virtually collapsed the Kremlin's planned assault on Ukraine's Fortress Belt this summer. A layered system of short, medium and long range drone strikes has hit specific types of targets within each segment, contributing to an overall diminution of military capabilities. JL

RFU News reports:

Ukraine has effectively encircled Russian-controlled Donetsk city by cutting off Russian supplies, creating a denial zone using a layered system of drone coverage. Ukraine is now striking Russian targets so far behind the front line, it threatens to collapse the Russian summer offensive. Ukrainian units have intensified strikes on the Russian rear as far as 100 to 300 kilometers to systematically disrupt Russian logistics that sustain frontline operations. Ukraine has struck 500 targets, of which 200 were warehouses, command posts, and maintenance sites, storing and repairing weapons, armored vehicles, and other equipment. No Russian truck can move without being targeted, even though the frontline is 60 kilometers away. Restricting movement also degrades staff coordination, slows intelligence flow, and delays reinforcements, compounding the broader operational impact.

Laptop, Phone, Game Console Prices Surge Due To AI Chip Demand

Despite the ongoing hype about AI making life better for everyone in every way, the reality is that it is driving up a variety of costs including electricity, water and now mobile phones, laptops and other consumer electronics. All because of the increased demand for AI usage. 

In the consumer electronics case, demand for AI chips is causing manufacturers to focus on those while cancelling the lower margin chips used for less expensive consumer goods. People can debate whether this is an economic benefit or not over the long term, but not the fact that the costs are rising.  JL

Samuel Gibbs reports in The Guardian:

The end of the (affordable) laptop, the bargain phone and cheap games consoles may be on the horizon because the cost of computer components has shot up. The cause is a shortage of memory chips which the tech press has dubbed “RAMageddon” (due to) the growth of AI and the datacenters it relies on. Prices for laptops costing $900 might increase by as much as 40% in 2026 owing to the memory chip shortage and other rising costs. A huge expansion of server farms  has sucked up not only the world’s current supply, but its production capacity for several years, creating a shortage of memory. Manufacturers have switched to high-end chips to meet AI demand. Cheaper laptops, phones and other electronics have smaller margins, so face larger price increases. Memory accounts for 30% of the cost of a budget smartphone and 23% of an entry-level laptop, meaning budget models may no longer be viable. "The sub-$500 entry level PC will disappear by 2028."

Russia Is In No Mood To Celebrate As Kremlin's Big Parade Approaches

The deal the Russian people have made with the Putin Kremlin is that they will tolerate a high degree of repression in return for a decent standard of living - and safety. But the stymied, arguably failing, war against Ukraine is now threatening that bargain. Prices and taxes are high. Catastrophic Russian casualties are now leading to even once-invulnerable children of the elite to face conscription, which many Russians understandably view as a death sentence. 

The latest humiliation is that Ukraine has refused to agree to a ceasefire during the Kremlin Victory Day parade tomorrow, meaning that fear of Ukrainian drone attacks is rife. And the parade will not even feature any armored vehicles or big weapons systems because so many have been destroyed in the war with Ukraine. So the big news tomorrow will not be the unveiling of some new missile or tank, but whether or not Ukrainian drones strike Red Square during the parade. Kyiv, increasingly, controls the war's narrative. JL

Valerie Hopkins reports in the New York Times:

The May 9 procession on Red Square in the heart of Kremlin power is being curtailed because of the potential for Ukrainian drone strikes. The May 9 holiday, Victory Day, is the most important on the Russian calendar. The Kremlin has made the Soviet triumph in World War II a civil religion for Russians. (But) the mood is hardly festive. Prices and taxes are rising as the economy struggles to bear the cost of the war in Ukraine. A new wave of repressive measures has led to internet restrictions. Polls show record numbers of war-weary Russians want peace. Showing unaccustomed weakness, the Russian government appealed unsuccessfully to Ukraine for a cease-fire on the parade day and acknowledged “additional security measures” to protect President Vladimir V. Putin.