Ukraine Ground Drones Assault, Destroy Russian Ammunition Depot

Demonstrating their increasingly effective and lethal capabilities, ground drones operated by Ukraine's 3rd Assault Brigade attacked and destroyed a Russian ammunition depot behind the front line. 

Russian defenders attempted to disrupt the Ukrainian ground drone attack with FPV aerial drones and artillery, but the Ukrainian robots maneuvered their way through unharmed and detonated their explosive payloads destroying the Russian ammunition cache. JL

Iryna Levytska reports in Ukraine Pravda:

Ground robotic systems of Ukraine's 3rd Assault Brigade struck Russian ammunition stocks despite four FPV drones, seven aerial drops and six artillery strikes. "Two robots manoeuvered, broke through the attacks and successfully delivered the explosives." A powerful explosion and heavy smoke were recorded. The targeted structure appears to be an industrial facility on the premises of a business production workshop. "The Russians burned through ammunition worth millions but failed to stop the ground robots." In January alone, Ukraine carried out 7,000 missions involving ground drones. 

The 5th Year of War Promises Stronger Ukraine, No Russian Breakthroughs

The harsh reality for the Kremlin is that the new year promises no significant differences from the previous year. Despite going all in to try to take Pokrovsk in an effort to convince Donald Trump that its victory was 'inevitable,' the Russian military faltered, once again, in the face of determined and innovative Ukrainian resistance. 

With hindsight, that now appears to have been the Kremlin's last and possibly, best shot. In the two months since the start of the new year, the Russians have not only failed to score any real advances, but are actually losing ground in the south where an initially tactical Ukrainian clearing operation has turned into a counteroffensive thanks to Russia's declining abilities. The rest of the year offers Russia no hope for change, but could provide a convincing demonstration that Ukraine is now the more capable military. JL

Igor Kossov reports in Euromaidan Press:

The fifth year of the invasion is a race. Both sides are fighting to convince the world they're winning. They're competing to widen the drone kill zone around the front line, each pushing its boundaries deeper into enemy territory. The front line is no longer a line, it is a kill zone, where drones hold sway. And it’s poised to grow in the coming year. It is no longer a strip between opposing positions, but a fuzzy mass that extends beyond defenses, ranging from 10 to 30 kilometers. (To survive in it) both sides are advancing autonomous weapons that ignore electronic countermeasures. Unlike Russia, Ukraine boasts new types of army units that explicitly broke with Soviet command culture to prevail in the new war. Both are scaling up industry while wearing down the opponent's, until one of them breaks. 

What Began As Tactical Clearing Is Now Ukraine's Biggest Counteroffensive In Years

When SpaceX finally stopped Russia from using stolen Starlink terminals and access, Ukraine seized the opportunity to initiate clearing operations to remake the front line in the south to its advantage. 

But that was then. Finding that the Russian units in the area were understrength, poorly supplied and more scattered than anticipated, the Ukrainians have now expanded their attacks into a counteroffensive that threatens to undo months of Russian advances while disrupting the Kremlin's hopes of launching significant new assaults. The Ukrainians' quick thinking and adaptive actions have strengthened their position in the south, forced the Russians to divert resources from Donetsk and undermined the Russians' plans for the rest of the year. JL

David Axe reports in Trench Art:

Ukraine's southeastern counteroffensiv has outrun its original scope. What began as a cleanup triggered by Starlink bricking Russia's stolen satellite terminals is becoming the most significant Ukrainian ground advance in months. In the critical, 30-km sector between the Ukrainian-controlled town of Pokrovske in Dnipropetrovsk Oblast and the Russian-controlled town of Huliaipole in Zaporizhzhia Oblast, a pair of powerful Ukrainian battlegroups has achieved the cleanup objective and have now shifted their aim: they're advancing toward settlements the Russians once firmly controlled. The Ukrainians push east will make it harder for the Russians to resume pushing west. "Russia lost, in three weeks, at least four months of infiltrations."

AI IPO Fever Dreams Spoiled By Persistent Wall Street Selloff

AI was supposed to drive the revival of the IPO market - this year. But fears about the impact of its affect on a host of other industries - as well as doubts about its actual benefit to operations and finances - have led to growing concerns that have driven equity markets down. 

There is a school of thought that says a rebound is inevitable, but a more prudent point of view may be that as the Silicon Valley hype machine becomes less credible, reversion to the mean is emerging and so a consensus return to rational expectations will take over. This may not be good for IPOs and those who were counting their Maseratis to come, but it makes sense. JL

Corrie Driebusch reports in the Wall Street Journal:

This was supposed to be a blockbuster year for initial public offerings. AI fears spoiled the party as concerns AI will upend the software industry sent stocks tumbling earlier this month. The selloff accelerated this week after a viral blog post about the threat posed by AI. Bankers and investors now expect the few mega-offerings to dominate the year. Most private tech companies—many that have spent years biding their time—will be forced to keep waiting it out. Three-quarters of tech stocks that debuted last year are now trading below their IPO prices, with the whole class of 2025 tech IPOs down an average of 18% through Tuesday’s close.

Four Years After Invasion, Kremlin Admits It Has Not Achieved Objectives

Understatement of the decade. JL

Tim Zadorozhnyy reports in the Kyiv Independent:

Kremlin spokesperson Dmitry Peskov acknowledged on Feb. 24 that, four years after launching its full-scale invasion, Russia has still not achieved its objectives in Ukraine.

The admission highlights the gap between the Kremlin's early expectations of a swift victory and the prolonged, costly war that has followed, as Ukrainian resistance continues. Russian officials, propagandists, and some Western intelligence assessments initially predicted that Ukraine could fall within days or weeks. Russian propagandist Margarita Simonyan famously said in 2021, "In a war, we'll defeat Ukraine in two days," a claim that has since come to symbolize Moscow's miscalculations.

As War Enters 5th Year, Ukraine Has "Embarrassed" Russian Generals' Gain Claims

Ukrainian forces are 'biting back' in several sectors of the front, from Kupiansk in the north to Zaporizhzhia in the south. This has 'embarrassed' Russian generals who have made claims - echoed by the Kremlin - of gains which have proven not just false, but the reverse of the situation on the ground. 

So as the war enters its fifth year, Ukraine is demonstrating ingenuity and resilience for which the Russians have yet to find an answer. JL

James Marson and Alistair MacDonald report in the Wall Street Journal:

Ukraine has embarrassed Russian generals’ claims of significant gains by largely clearing the city of Kupyansk in the northeast of Russian forces and retaking several villages in the Zaporizhzhia region. Losses among the Kremlin’s troops now number well over one million, and its grinding offensives advance at a few dozen yards a day at best. Russia was able to capture only around 0.8% of Ukrainian territory last year. Military intelligence in European countries estimate that Russia will continue to make incremental gains on the ground but at a very high cost.  “This war continues like it has for a couple of years.” 

Ukraine Armor, Troops Lead 'Deep Penetration' Of Russia's Huliaipole Defenses

There are several noteworthy aspects to this report, which are atypical of the fighting in Ukraine over the past year or more. First, that there is a 'deep penetration' anywhere is unusual given the grinding nature of the fighting up till now. The potential breakthrough suggests weaker than reported Russian troop strength and weaponry. 

Second, that the assault is being led by armor is extraordinary as the dominance of drones has largely made armor too easy a target. This reveals both that the weather has helped Ukraine and that the loss of Starlink and Telegram access has seriously degraded Russian capabilities. While it is too soon to know how far the penetration will go, that it is happening at all is a testament to Ukrainian strength and adaptability. JL

RFU News reports:

The Ukrainian army has raised the stakes, sending armored columns forward as a spearhead to penetrate deep into Russian lines in the Huliaipole sector, exploiting weakened Russian positions. Ukrainian armored units are leading attacks, pushing forward to break through several layers of Russian defenses including trenches, razor wire, anti-tank obstacles and mine fields. Coordinated armored assaults supported by intensive drone operations significantly degraded Russian defensive cohesion. Ukraine’s 225th Assault Regiment reported 40 Russian troops eliminated in a single day. Ukrainian forces have seized the initiative, penetrating deep into the Russian-held territory, and nullifying within days gains that cost the Russians months and huge losses.