Ukraine is well on its way to achieving its stated strategic goal for 2026 of killing or disabling 50,000 Russians a month. That is the number, the Ukrainians believe, at which the Kremlin will no longer be able to sustain its invasion.
In January, Ukrainian forces killed 30, 618 Russians, about 8,000 more than the Kremlin conscripted. In December, Ukraine inflicted casualties equal to the number conscripted or recruited but for the entire year of 2025, the Ukrainians killed or wounded more men than Russia added to its forces. The numbers are not trending in Moscow's direction. JL
RFU News reports:
Ukraine drove Russia's troop balance negative for the second time. Ukraine verified 30,618 Russian personnel kills during January, while Moscow managed to recruit or contract just 22,000 troops over the same period. The resulting deficit of 8,618 marks the second month when Russia lost more troops than it could replace. The goal is to ramp monthly kills to 50,000, "the optimal level at which Moscow will begin to seriously weigh what it is doing." The January numbers suggest Ukraine's forces are currently delivering about 60% of that target from drones alone, with room to scale further. Russia's full-year 2025 losses of 410,000 troops exceeded the 406,000 Moscow claimed to have recruited, with December's kills roughly matching recruitment.