Russia's Z-Bloggers Have Turned On Army Leaders and Kremlin For Failing War

When you've lost the mil-bloggers...

Until recently the most enthusiastic - and often bloodthirsty supporters of Russia's Ukrainian invasion were the community of unofficial home-grown bloggers, know as mil or z bloggers. But as the war continues to go badly, the bloggers have begun to criticize not just tactics or individual commanders, which they had tacit permission to do, but are now mentioning the war itself, and even Putin. This suggests that the truth about the conduct of the war is widespread and that its former supporters are now expressing outrage as the prospect of winning has turned to fear of unsatisfactory compromise, let alone effective defeat. JL

 
New Voice of Ukraine reports:

Russian Z-bloggers (also mil-bloggers or voenkors, until now Russia's most enthusiastic Ukraine invasion cheerleaders) have begun to criticize the command of the Russian army the war itself and even Putin. From the start, they could criticize tactics and commanders but never the Kremlin, nor the idea of the war. (But) posts critical of the Kremlin have appeared from dozens of Russian z-bloggers over the past two weeks. They write that the Russian offensive has reached a dead end, mobilization is pointless in current conditions, the command is hiding real losses, 80-90% of  casualties occur before the battle even starts as fighters die on the way due to Ukraine's drone attacks, while officials are stealing and vacation at resorts. They also resent the blocking of Telegram and VPNs. By purging Z-channels, the Kremlin reduced the risk of criticism, but lost strategic feedback." 

How Ukrainian Leopard Tank Survived 52 FPV Drone Strike

The benefits of tanks offensive threat have been offset by their vulnerability to drone strikes. In order to protect these still valuable weapons systems, their crews have learned to better protect them by adding a variety of chains, grills and cages to catch drones or break their propellers before they actually hit the armored vehicle.

Surviving 52 Russian drone strikes and then being able to drive the tank away suggests that these protective systems, though still improvised, appear to be doing their job. JL

Roman Kohanets reports in United24:

During a daylong attack, a Ukrainian Leopard 1A5 tank withstood 52 strikes from Russian FPV and Molniya drones. The crew, from the 1st Battalion of Ukraine's 5th Mechanized Brigade, had reinforced the vehicle with layered anti-drone protection as drone warfare has forced crews to abandon traditional maneuver combat. Crews place them in covered revetments hidden under camouflage nets with side netting to catch incoming drones. The vehicles are fitted with a roof cage, grilles and chains over the engine, and Ukrainian-made reactive armor on the hull, sides, and turret. Crews also attach unraveled steel cables to break drone propellers. the crew stayed under cover until the strikes stopped, then started the engine, and drove it from under Russian observation.

Russia's Black Sea Fleet Down To 7 Warships: Ukraine's Hunting Them One By One

Two days ago, Ukrainian drones struck the Russian Black Sea Fleet's flagship, the Admiral Makarov, one of only seven warships remaining in what was once the Kremlin's proudest naval force. 

The Makarov became the fleet's flagship when Ukraine sank its predecessor, the Moskva, four years ago this month. JL

David Axe reports in Trench Art:

After years of relentless Ukrainian strikes from the air, the surface, and below the sea, just seven warships now represent the once-powerful Russian Black Sea fleet's firepower. Ukraine's Unmanned Systems Forces just hit another, under the cover of darkness on Monday. One-way attack drones targeted the frigate Admiral Makarov while the missile-armed vessel was at its pier in Novorossiysk. It has served as the Black Sea Fleet's flagship ever since Ukrainian missiles sank the Moskva in April 2022. The strike marks the latest in an escalating Ukrainian campaign against the handful of warships Russia has left in the Black Sea. Every hit shrinks the Kalibr-launching capacity Moscow uses to bombard Ukrainian cities—and pushes the once-dominant fleet closer to combat irrelevance.

Attacking Thru Kill Zones, Ukrainians Say "The More Russians, the More We Kill"

As Ukrainian forces continue their opportunistic attacks from winter into the spring, there is no longer a front line per se. Instead, they are advancing through a killzone of varying widths, depending on the strength of the drone and assault units operating in tandem for that sector.

The Ukrainians have learned to take advantage of the confusion such imprecision provides, using it to advance as they track the Russians who are reduced to infiltration units of a few men because they can no longer assemble larger groups. The result has been a series of successful operations which have strengthened Ukraine's defensive position while disrupting Russian offensive hopes. JL

Francis Farrell reports in the Kyiv Independent:

Ukrainian forces have retaken the initiative on the southern front line, counterattacking through the Zaporizhzhia and Dnipropetrovsk oblasts. As much as the war has come to be dominated by drones every step of the way, clearing and holding territory still requires boots on the ground. The rank and file are no super soldiers, but simple Ukrainian mobilized men who chose to do their duty. "The difficulty is that there's no longer that clear line of separation like there was even a couple years ago. When all our drone teams are working, the enemy can't achieve anything, they take massive losses, 95% of them are destroyed on their way to the zero line. The more of them that come, the more we kill. It’s just a routine process that goes on day and night."

68% of Consumers Question If Online Content They See Is Real or AI-Generated

Some AI firms and investors might be high-fiving each other at this news, but major brands are finding that, in an age of 'authenticity,' such confusion and/or skepticism is driving 50% of  purchasers to seek reassurance about a product's reality before they buy. 

Some marketing campaigns are going so far as to append messages such as "No AI generated bodies or people." The larger issue is that AI is extremely unpopular, with 55% in a recent poll quoted by the Wall Street Journal expressing the belief that AI will do more harm than good. Most of this is due to the AI industry's own missteps, as they fight attempts by individuals to seek compensation for intellectual property used to train AI, tout its job-destroying threat as a benefit to managers and brag about how AI will cement their control of the economy. While taking steps to assure the public that online content is real may not significantly affect AI's profitability and short term growth, it is another issue which investors must contemplate as they try to assess the validity longer term AI financial projections. JL

Patrick Coffee reports in the Wall Street Journal:

68% of consumers question whether the content they see is real (vs AI generated), and 50% would rather spend their money with brands that don’t use generative AI in marketing. Another report found 63% of consumers think brands have a duty to disclose when they use AI in marketing. “A lot of people are assuming real stuff is AI” as major platforms have struggled to detect and label AI-generated content. Marketers may not always have a choice on disclosure as regulators begin to step in. New York last year became the first state to pass a law requiring businesses to disclose the use of AI-generated humans in their marketing content.

The Ukraine and Iran Wars Have Merged, Arguably To Ukraine's Benefit

Governments tend to observe each other and then employ similar tactics and strategies which appear to work. What Russia and Iran have done against Ukraine - drones, mercenaries, grain, oil export and energy infrastructure attacks - are deployed by Iran against the US, but now also being used by the US and Israel against Iran with anti-drone and electronic warfare assistance from Ukraine. 

And while much verbiage has been deployed about the benefit of the Iran war to Russia, the reality may be far more complicated. Ukraine has stepped up its attacks on Russia's crucial oil export assets, possibly degrading that source of capital by as much as 40%. In addition, the lucrative deals Ukraine has signed with Persian Gulf nations to defend themselves from Iranian drone and missile attacks will help fund Ukraine's burgeoning defense industry. In the meantime, with so much global attention on Iran, especially from the US, Moscow has had to pivot somewhat so its prime ally is not humiliated. This distraction has given Ukraine some advantages so far this year as the Kremlin's winter and spring offensives have both faltered, due in no small part to the Russian leadership's need for mindshare devoted to Iran. The end of neither conflict seems near, but their increasingly conjoined interests reflect the global political economy. JL

Seth Frantzman reports in The National Interest, Julian Borger and Pyotr Sauer report in The Guardian:

The two conflicts are beginning to merge. Weapons used on one battlefield inform decisions on another. Iran and Russia have long been close friends and partners. From missiles and drones to nuclear power and air defense (Iran acquired Russia’s S-300 air defense systems in 2016), the countries are deeply entwined. In both conflicts, Iranian-designed drones have played a key role. So have global shipping and energy markets. To limit Russia’s windfall from Iran war induced price increases, Ukraine has intensified strikes on Russian energy infrastructure. The security relationships Ukraine has now cultivated in the Gulf could provide a vital source of finance for Ukraine’s arms industry

Ukraine Regains Control Of 'Significant Frontline Areas' In East, Southeast

Ukrainian forces have continued to make 'significant' territorial gains in the face of Russia's spring offensive, as the Kremlin's troops cumulative shortages of personnel and supplies hamper their performance. 

The three months of Ukrainian counterattacks appear to have caught the Russians unawares with their ability to respond degraded relative to previous years, likely because of Ukraine's increasingly effective drone strikes on logistics and reinforcements. JL

Reuters reports:

Ukraine has regained control of 480 sq km of territory in the south-eastern and eastern parts of the front since late January as Russian forces suffered 'signficant losses in personnel and military equipment. Ukraine had returned to control over eight settlements in the Dnipropetrovsk region in the east and four settlements in the south-eastern Zaporizhzhia region. Military analysts said that Ukrainian counter-attacks in the south-east of the country were helping to disrupt Russian efforts around Pokrovsk in the eastern Donetsk region, and overall, the Russian spring offensive along more than 1,200km of the front line.