Four Years After Invasion, Kremlin Admits It Has Not Achieved Objectives

Understatement of the decade. JL

Tim Zadorozhnyy reports in the Kyiv Independent:

Kremlin spokesperson Dmitry Peskov acknowledged on Feb. 24 that, four years after launching its full-scale invasion, Russia has still not achieved its objectives in Ukraine.

The admission highlights the gap between the Kremlin's early expectations of a swift victory and the prolonged, costly war that has followed, as Ukrainian resistance continues. Russian officials, propagandists, and some Western intelligence assessments initially predicted that Ukraine could fall within days or weeks. Russian propagandist Margarita Simonyan famously said in 2021, "In a war, we'll defeat Ukraine in two days," a claim that has since come to symbolize Moscow's miscalculations.

As War Enters 5th Year, Ukraine Has "Embarrassed" Russian Generals' Gain Claims

Ukrainian forces are 'biting back' in several sectors of the front, from Kupiansk in the north to Zaporizhzhia in the south. This has 'embarrassed' Russian generals who have made claims - echoed by the Kremlin - of gains which have proven not just false, but the reverse of the situation on the ground. 

So as the war enters its fifth year, Ukraine is demonstrating ingenuity and resilience for which the Russians have yet to find an answer. JL

James Marson and Alistair MacDonald report in the Wall Street Journal:

Ukraine has embarrassed Russian generals’ claims of significant gains by largely clearing the city of Kupyansk in the northeast of Russian forces and retaking several villages in the Zaporizhzhia region. Losses among the Kremlin’s troops now number well over one million, and its grinding offensives advance at a few dozen yards a day at best. Russia was able to capture only around 0.8% of Ukrainian territory last year. Military intelligence in European countries estimate that Russia will continue to make incremental gains on the ground but at a very high cost.  “This war continues like it has for a couple of years.” 

Ukraine Armor, Troops Lead 'Deep Penetration' Of Russia's Huliaipole Defenses

There are several noteworthy aspects to this report, which are atypical of the fighting in Ukraine over the past year or more. First, that there is a 'deep penetration' anywhere is unusual given the grinding nature of the fighting up till now. The potential breakthrough suggests weaker than reported Russian troop strength and weaponry. 

Second, that the assault is being led by armor is extraordinary as the dominance of drones has largely made armor too easy a target. This reveals both that the weather has helped Ukraine and that the loss of Starlink and Telegram access has seriously degraded Russian capabilities. While it is too soon to know how far the penetration will go, that it is happening at all is a testament to Ukrainian strength and adaptability. JL

RFU News reports:

The Ukrainian army has raised the stakes, sending armored columns forward as a spearhead to penetrate deep into Russian lines in the Huliaipole sector, exploiting weakened Russian positions. Ukrainian armored units are leading attacks, pushing forward to break through several layers of Russian defenses including trenches, razor wire, anti-tank obstacles and mine fields. Coordinated armored assaults supported by intensive drone operations significantly degraded Russian defensive cohesion. Ukraine’s 225th Assault Regiment reported 40 Russian troops eliminated in a single day. Ukrainian forces have seized the initiative, penetrating deep into the Russian-held territory, and nullifying within days gains that cost the Russians months and huge losses. 

Goldman Sachs, Others, Say AI Contributed "Basically Zero" To 2025 US Economy

AI contributing "basically zero?" From Goldman - with echoing analyses from JP Morgan and Morgan Stanley - all of whom are leaders in meeting big tech's financing needs and not exactly known as Luddites?

Sounds a tad harsh. But what if they're correct. Or take a step back and acknowledge, what if AI's contribution has "merely" been overstated? Yes, that should be a concern for any prudent corporate leader trying to figure out how much to invest in AI and what to expect in return. This is unlikely to upend current trajectories right away, but it does add to the cautionary AI trend. JL

Shira Ovide reports in the Washington Post:

A growing number of forecasters now say the economy’s dependence on AI was overstated. Goldman Sachs said investment spending on AI made “basically zero” difference in U.S. economic growth last year.  (Other) prominent economists, including from Morgan Stanley and JPMorgan Chase, calculate that the AI buildup was directly responsible not for 92% or 39% of gains to the U.S. economy in 2025, but as little as zero. It may be challenging to clearly measure. That may leave political and corporate leaders to choose the numbers that fit their preferred narratives on how AI is changing American life and work. The struggle to even measure what is happening today suggests there may be bickering ahead over whether AI is creating a golden age of prosperity or unemployment and impoverishment. Even those who see both sides say, "It's not like AI is propping up the economy." 

Kremlin's Recruit Numbers Keep Dropping As Soldiers "Realize It's A One-Way Ticket"

Tactical losses - even some strategic ones - could be endured by Russia if its troop strength numbers could be sustained. 

But a growing number of reports indicate that they no longer can keep up with Russian casualties in Ukraine. JL

Tom Cotterill reports in The Telegraph:

Russia is losing more troops than it can recruit. Ukraine’s intense counter-attacks have pushed Russia’s casualties to more than 1.25 million – greater than the total sustained by the United States during the Second World War. The vast majority of Moscow’s losses – 87% – came from drone strikes, which now dominate the battlefield, with one drone as effective as 22 rounds of heavy artillery. Russia's effort to gain fresh recruits was “becoming more and more difficult” with financial incentives by the Kremlin failing to entice new soldiers to join the front lines. "People are realizing that it's a one-way ticket."

Putin's Decision-Making Remains Detached From Reality As Ukraine Strengthens

On day 1461 of Putin's three or ten day war - whichever you choose - Ukraine's most recent successes suggest that Putin's decision-making remains divorced from battlefield reality. 

It is apparent to most informed observers that he cannot negotiate for peace - or even a ceasefire - because even the poor, politically irrelevant relatives of the 1.25 million Russian casualties in Ukraine will demand some sort of result that justifies their loved one's deaths or dismemberment. But the harsh reality is that the Ukrainians are not yielding and the Russians are not gaining.  All while his war economy is evidently faltering. And because Trump does not like losers, Putin cannot rely on him, especially as the American President eyes Russia's allies in Venezuela and Cuba. In short, this is not an anniversary Putin is likely to want to remember. JL

Mick Ryan reports in Futura Doctrina:

The Russian theory is that a few more big pushes might work. We have seen this logic before in war, and it never ends well. The disconnect between Russian strategy and demonstrated Ukrainian resilience suggests – again – that Putin’s decision-making remains detached from battlefield reality. During February 10-17, Russian forces actually lost19 square miles of territory—slightly less than Manhattan Island. This represents a dramatic reversal from preceding weeks. Putin is considering an involuntary reserve call-up to sustain Russian ground offensive operations. This indicates that the model employed since 2022 – emptying jails and offering huge recruitment bonuses – is reaching the end of its sustainable life. A new model for provision of warm bodies is required to backfill the 1000 casualties a day that Russia is suffering.

Ukraine's 300 Km "Zaporizhzhia Run" On War's 4th Anniversary Shocks Russia

In fighting reminiscent of the Ukrainian advances around Kharkiv and Kherson in late 2022, Ukraine's forces have optimized what was originally some tactical opportunities and turned them into what is now widely called a counteroffensive. 

Having pushed the Russians back 300 kilometers in Zaporizhzhia and Dnipropetrovsk oblasts - an advance being called 'The Zaporizhzhia Run," 

Ukraine has not only disrupted a Russian gain that began last summer but has forced the Kremlin to redeploy forces from other sectors including Pokrovsk. Though much of the credit for the Ukrainian success has been attributed to the Russians' loss of Starlink and Telegram access, the reality appears to be that the Russian 'advances' were really more like probing reconnaissance actions by small units, not territory gained and held by substantial units. When viewed against the backdrop of the Kremlin's well publicized difficulties in recruiting new troops, these Ukrainian attacks appear to signal a further degradation of Russian military capabilities. JL

Decimus reports in Daily Kos:

2026 was (supposed) to be the year in which Zaporizhzhia City (as well as the Zaporizhzhia Nuclear Power Plant) became Russian propaganda coups as a dispirited Ukraine caved. But Ukraine's unanticipated, vicious and devastating counter punch into the Russian underbelly in Zaporizhia upended what it had done since last summer as well as the Kremlin's plans for 2026. Russian forces are now 'spinning their wheels halfway to their intended staging positions." The tempo of Russian advances nearly halted.  Ukrainian units struck across multiple axes: Oleksandrivka, along the Haichur River, northwest of Huliaipole and liberated Dobropillia. These actions were 80 kilometers east of Zaporizhzhia City, an area where Russian forces had made progress since summer. The strategic impact of reversing Russian momentum is substantial.