Russian Soldiers Say Officers Executed Comrades For Refusing To Attack

As recent Ukrainian successes in breaking Russian defenses raise further questions about the Kremlin's ability to staff its units, additional revelations about widespread executions of Russian soldiers by officers under intense pressure from above reignite periodic whispers about declining Russian morale at the front due to abusive commanders, insufficient supplies and hopeless tactics. JL

The BBC reports:

Russian  soldiers have reported seeing comrades being killed on site for refusing to return to combat. One of them claimed to have witnessed a commander executing four men at close range, while another described finding around 20 bodies of soldiers who were killed by their own comrades, a practice known in Russian military jargon as “zeroing,” or eliminating their own men. Reports describe a collapse of discipline and chain of command, with extreme punishments applied to soldiers who refuse to participate in suicide attacks, known among the troops as “meat storms,” in which successive waves of men are sent to the front lines to exhaust Ukrainian forces.

Young, Battle-Tested Ukraine Officers Being Promoted To Senior Commands

Ukraine has promoted six officers age 40 or younger to brigadier or major general as part of a rejuvenation of the Ukrainian military.

All have been battle-tested in the war against the Russian invasion and have demonstrated both bravery and effective field leadership as Ukraine's forces have fought the larger Russian army to a standstill innovating, adapting and managing the transition from Soviet-era experience to the new age of drone-driven electronic warfare. These promotions signal that the lessons learned on the battlefield of the past four years by its most successful commanders are being embraced as the way forward for the Ukrainian military. JL

Stefan Korshak reports in the Kyiv Post:

Ukraine President Zelensky ordered the promotion of six field commanders to the rank of brigadier or major general in the Armed Forces of Ukraine Tuesday, a wave of promotions favoring younger, battle-tested officers. The youngest to be promoted was Denys Prokopenko, 34, a university graduate with no formal military education. He joined Ukraine’s armed forces in 2014 as a volunteer, serving in every rank, from rifleman to colonel, in Ukraine’s Azov formation. In the spring of 2022, he led the defense of encircled Mariupol. Oleh Apostol, 38, was promoted from brigadier general to major general, and will serve as Air Assault Forces commander. Yaroslav Sydorov, 40, has commanded tank units in Ukraine’s eastern regions and been decorated for bravery. He was promoted to lead the 17th Army Corps, responsible for the Zaporizhzhia and Kherson sector. 

Compliant Western Media's Silence Confirms War Not Going Well For Kremlin

It is apparent that the war is not going well for Russia as the western media which have consistently denigrated Ukraine's prospects and amplified Kremlin's 'inevitable win' propaganda have gone silent the past couple of weeks. "What Ukraine war?" they seem to be saying. 

But the facts on the ground are that Russia continues to falter in Donetsk while in the south, they are losing ground to the Ukrainians to such a degree that the infrequently heard phrases 'counteroffensive,' and 'breakthrough' are now being bandied about. Not only is Russia not winning, they cannot even claim to be holding their own. And unlike the Trump administration, the Ukrainians are not asking anyone to say thank you. JL

Heather Cox Richardson reports in Notes From An American:

At the end of its fourth year of war, Russia is weakened enough that the Institute for the Study of War assesses “Putin’s mismanagement of the war and Ukraine’s resistance now confront Putin with challenging and uncomfortable decisions about the war and the Russian economy.” The need for more money and men to fight will be unpopular. Europe is stepping up its support of Ukraine. Russia is not winning, and has recently been losing territory, as Kremlin officials are trying to mitigate domestic backlash. “Ukrainians are saving us all, and unlike us, they don’t even ask us to say thank you.”

After Huliaipole Breakthrough, Ukraine 2nd Attack Encircles Russian Units

As Ukraine's initial tactical assaults in the Zaporizhzhia and Dnipropetrovsk sectors succeeded, it became apparent to the Ukrainian command that the Russians were far weaker in those areas than expected. 

So the Ukrainians deployed more resources and turned the limited objective assaults into an offensive, which now appears to have broken through Russian lines in several locations. Again displaying their adaptive capabilities, the Ukrainians have now exploited that success with a second attack from a different direction with threatens a number of Russian units with encirclement and destruction. The Russians have reportedly suffered 10,000 casualties in these sectors since the new year, suggesting that this could lead to an unexpectedly serious degradation of already limited Russian forces. JL

RFU News reports:

In the Dnipropetrovsk sector Russian lines started cracking as Ukrainians broke through. Ukraine isn’t giving Russia time to adjust and opened a second axis from the north, threatening encirclement for the Russians. Near Huliaipole, Ukraine created a significant breach in Russian positions from the west and northwest, pushing them further behind the Haichur River. They are now exploiting this breakthrough by launching a secondary attack from the north. This cuts Russian units off from reinforcement. The threat of being surrounded is serious, as Ukraine is forcing Russian commanders to shift limited reserves around constantly. Despite Russia committing troops from three armies, the Russian command lacks enough backup forces. Russia has lost 10,000 casualties in the south. 

Anthropic's Pentagon Defiance Tied To Chinese Hacking, Chip Sales To UAE

The dispute with the Pentagon is not about Anthropic being woke, or obstinate. The company appears primarily concerned about national security, based on their own experience with China, which has created thousands of accounts under fake names to siphon Anthropic's data and systems to bolster their own, less advanced AI. They also, as any sensible company would, believe they should retain control of their product and the intellectual property that drives it, not hand it off to some bureaucrat with a political agenda. 

Anthropic's model is evidently superior to its competitors for the the Pentagon's needs, since it is the only one currently with a top security clearance. In that light, Anthropic has been critical of the Trump administration's eagerness to sell AI chips to the United Arab Emirates for money that went not to the US government, but to private Trump business accounts. The company has understandable concerns about how those chips will be used, especially if, as feared, the UAE then re-sells some of them to China. So, in short, Anthropic does not trust this administration to protect the country's interests or the company's own commercial investment. And in defying the DOD Secretary Hegseth, are taking a prudent financial position that could benefit the entire US AI industry. JL

Robert McMillan and Raffaele Huang report in the Wall Street Journal, Ian Duncan and colleagues report in the Washington Post and Rebecca Bellan reports in Tech Crunch:

Anthropic CEO Dario Amodei said it was ready to continue working with the Pentagon, but would not change its stance (regarding use of its AI for) robotic weaponry and domestic surveillance. Amodei previously criticized the Trump administration’s drive to allow exports of American AI chips to China. He compared the policy to “selling nuclear weapons to North Korea.” Anthropic said three Chinese AI companies set up 24,000 fraudulent accounts with its Claude AI model to help their own systems catch up. The three companies, Deep Seek, Moonshot AI and AI, prompted Claude 16 million times to siphon information from Anthropic to train their own products. Anthropic is the only AI lab with classified DOD access. The DOD doesn’t have a backup option currently. "This is a single vendor situation. If Anthropic cancels, it will be a serious situation for DOD."

Ukraine Ground Drones Assault, Destroy Russian Ammunition Depot

Demonstrating their increasingly effective and lethal capabilities, ground drones operated by Ukraine's 3rd Assault Brigade attacked and destroyed a Russian ammunition depot behind the front line. 

Russian defenders attempted to disrupt the Ukrainian ground drone attack with FPV aerial drones and artillery, but the Ukrainian robots maneuvered their way through unharmed and detonated their explosive payloads destroying the Russian ammunition cache. JL

Iryna Levytska reports in Ukraine Pravda:

Ground robotic systems of Ukraine's 3rd Assault Brigade struck Russian ammunition stocks despite four FPV drones, seven aerial drops and six artillery strikes. "Two robots manoeuvered, broke through the attacks and successfully delivered the explosives." A powerful explosion and heavy smoke were recorded. The targeted structure appears to be an industrial facility on the premises of a business production workshop. "The Russians burned through ammunition worth millions but failed to stop the ground robots." In January alone, Ukraine carried out 7,000 missions involving ground drones. 

The 5th Year of War Promises Stronger Ukraine, No Russian Breakthroughs

The harsh reality for the Kremlin is that the new year promises no significant differences from the previous year. Despite going all in to try to take Pokrovsk in an effort to convince Donald Trump that its victory was 'inevitable,' the Russian military faltered, once again, in the face of determined and innovative Ukrainian resistance. 

With hindsight, that now appears to have been the Kremlin's last and possibly, best shot. In the two months since the start of the new year, the Russians have not only failed to score any real advances, but are actually losing ground in the south where an initially tactical Ukrainian clearing operation has turned into a counteroffensive thanks to Russia's declining abilities. The rest of the year offers Russia no hope for change, but could provide a convincing demonstration that Ukraine is now the more capable military. JL

Igor Kossov reports in Euromaidan Press:

The fifth year of the invasion is a race. Both sides are fighting to convince the world they're winning. They're competing to widen the drone kill zone around the front line, each pushing its boundaries deeper into enemy territory. The front line is no longer a line, it is a kill zone, where drones hold sway. And it’s poised to grow in the coming year. It is no longer a strip between opposing positions, but a fuzzy mass that extends beyond defenses, ranging from 10 to 30 kilometers. (To survive in it) both sides are advancing autonomous weapons that ignore electronic countermeasures. Unlike Russia, Ukraine boasts new types of army units that explicitly broke with Soviet command culture to prevail in the new war. Both are scaling up industry while wearing down the opponent's, until one of them breaks.