Cruise Missile Dropped on Belgorod Is 21st Russian Self-Bombing In 2 Months

This may reflect a loss of trained operators and the increased difficulty in sourcing targeting electronics.

On the plus side, this provides good practice in taking cover for the locals. JL 

Isabel Van Brugen reports in Newsweek:

An X-59 missile was discovered in a field near the village of Krasnoye in Russia's Belgorod region on April 19. Belgorod is located near the Ukrainian border and houses Russian military bases. The region has been rocked by explosions throughout Russia's invasion of Ukraine, with local authorities regularly reporting unmanned aerial vehicles. In March and April alone, Moscow forces have mistakenly dropped at least 21 aerial bombs from its aircraft on Russian soil. Russian authorities tend to cover up the incidents, saying that there was "an abnormal discharge of ammunition."

Ukraine's 92nd Brigade Counterattack Retakes Russian Trenches Near Bakhmut

There are a growing number of such reports that Ukraine's active defense strategy is creating counterattack opportunities in crucial sectors of the front as Russian forces used as replacement around their latest focus - Chasiv Yar - or are redeployed in the face of a rearmed Ukrainian military. JL  

Militarnyi reports:

The fourth assault battalion of the 92nd Assault Brigade cleared and took over positions of the Russians, mopping up enemy trenches near the village of Ivanivske in the Bakhmut sector. Over the past day, the Ukrainian Defense Forces fought off 16 invaders’ attacks in this sector. The 92nd Assault Brigade has been fighting Russia for 10 years. At the beginning of the invasion, the brigade’s units defended Kharkiv, later liberated the Kharkiv region, and are now in the Bakhmut area

Uncensored AIs Provide Anti-Woke Training Data Whether True Or Not

Extreme libertarians in the tech community are attempting to address demand for what they believe is anti-woke data, whether it is true or not. 

Fortunately, they are mostly being snuffed by the big tech models designed with guardrails and demonstrable truths in mind. JL

Christopher Mims reports in the Wall Street Journal:

To counterbalance what some believe are the biases of consumer-facing AIs from big tech companies, a grassroots effort to create AIs with few or no guardrails is under way. Uncensored models (are) the nightmare scenario for AI safety researchers concerned about AIs spreading questionable information. It’s for those whose philosophy is that AIs should regurgitate anything in their training data, whether or not it’s true. In response to testing, ChatGPT-4 Turbo frames changing public messaging around the covid vaccine as a natural part of the scientific process, in which experts’ understanding of the effects of a treatment evolves while LibertyAI enumerates the ways government "lies" about the Covid vaccine.

Most Weapons For New US Ukraine Aid Package Are Already In Germany, Poland

New US shipments when authorized - hopefully in the next day or so - will replace weapons and ammunition ready to be sent to Ukraine from those pre-positioned in German and Polish storage depots. JL 

Ivanna Kostina and Stanislav Pohorilov report in Ukraine Pravda:

Most weapons from the US aid package for Ukraine are already in storage in Germany and Poland, which will accelerate the pace of delivery after a corresponding bill is adopted. Ukrainian officials will seek to send the armaments quickly to the locations where they are needed most after they cross the border, but this will still be a logistical (challenge) due to the huge quantity of the armaments. Artillery shells will be one of the first elements delivered to Ukraine.

Russian Air Activity "Noticeably Decreased" After Ukraine Shot Down Russian Bomber

Russian air force activity around the Black and Azov Seas has decreased noticeably since last week when Ukraine shot down a Russian strategic bomber used to launch ballistic missiles at Ukrainian targets. 

Ukrainian degradation of Russian defensive radars played a role in that successful targeting. The loss of trained pilots is also a concern for Russia as it has had trouble replacing its skilled cadres due to the need for potential trainers to serve in operational roles. JL 

New Voice of Ukraine reports:

Russian air activity in the Black and Azov Seas has noticeably decreased after the downing of a Russian Tu-22M3 strategic aircraft, capable of launching difficult-to-intercept X-22 missiles. The downed Tu-22M3 was conducting strikes on Ukrainian territory 300 km away from Ukrainian-controlled areas. Four pilots aboard the flight ejected, with two found alive, one confirmed deceased, and one still missing and presumed dead.  “Following disruption of their command posts in occupied Crimea, radar stations have reported a reduction in the deployment of tactical aviation near these waters."

Russians Change Donbas Strategy In Attempt To Reduce "High Casualties"

The significance of this intelligence is that in light of renewed US military aid, Russian commanders appear to believe they can no longer afford the high casualties (30% higher than the already appalling 2023 casualties) they have suffered so far in their largely unsuccessful winter and spring offensives. 

And again, this year's Russian casualties were inflicted by a Ukrainian military reported to be short of soldiers and ammunition. JL 

Yuri Zoria reports in Euromaidan Press:

In southern Donetsk Oblast, the Russian forces are plotting advances further west from Novomykhailivka in an effort to reduce casualties by circumventing the fortified defenses of Vuhledar. From entering to the middle of the town, a total distance of under 5km, took Russian forces 73 days. Following the Russian claim on the fall of Novomykhailivka, the commander of Ukraine’s 79th Separate Air Assault Brigade, said Ukrainian troops were still in control of 20% of the settlement.

Turning Point? Ukraine To Be In 'Significantly Improved' Position vs Russia By June

Russian leadership is reported to have been surprised by the passage of renewed military assistance to Ukraine in the US Congress. 

As a result, the Russians will be forced to review its planned offensive operations in Ukraine, especially since they were unable to achieve any breakthroughs this winter and spring despite considerable advantages in manpower and ammunition. With Ukraine now expected to receive increased shipments, optimistic Russian plans will have to be adjusted, and in some cases, abandoned. JL 

The Institute For the Study of War reports:

The likely resumption of US security assistance to Ukraine is a critical turning point in the war. Ukraine will be in a significantly improved operational position by June 2024 as they leverage US security assistance to blunt Russian offensive operations regardless of delays in the arrival of that assistance, and the Russian military will likely consider significant changes to the large-scale offensive it is expected to launch in June. The Russian military command will have to consider if the intended objectives of its summer offensive effort are now feasible and if the current means Russian forces have been preparing are sufficient to conduct planned operations considering the resumption of US  assistance