Ukraine Missiles Strike Russian Belgorod Command Post 168km From the Border

Ukraine struck the headquarters of Russia's northern command, which is 168 kilometers from the border. 

This may have been the second hit by US and British supplied missiles inside Russia in as many days. The targeting was reportedly followed by explosions and fires. JL

Reuters reports:

Ukraine successfully targeted a Russian command post in the town of Gubkin in Russia’s Belgorod region, around 168 km from the border with Ukraine a day after Ukraine used the U.S.-made ATACMS missiles to strike a Russian ammunition depot. Explosions and a fire breaking out were reported with electricity temporarily cut to some districts and emergency crews were on site repairing damage.

Russia "Still A Long Way" From Seizing Donbas Due To Lethal Ukraine Defense

Despite the return of ominous headlines suggesting Ukraine's defense of Donetsk and Luhansk is about to collapse, the reality on the ground is that the Russians remain far from their goal of capturing both provinces. 

Russian losses remain apocalyptic by modern standards and the lack of effective leadership means that the Ukrainians are continuing to contain their attempts at advancing. JL

Marc Santora reports in the New York Times:

Russia is still a long way from achieving the Kremlin’s aims of seizing Ukraine’s two most easternmost regions, Luhansk and Donetsk. Ukrainian forces continue to make the Russians pay a high price for every advance, using their fleet of drones to slow the Russian onslaught. Scores of lifeless Russian soldiers scattered across fields, tree lines and roadsides offered a gruesome window into the extraordinary violence playing out across hundreds of miles of the front every day.

Russia Prepared For Ukraine ATACMS Strikes - But Not Where They Actually Hit

The Kremlin anticipated as early as July 2024 that Ukraine would be given permission to use US long range missiles against targets inside Russia. But their assessment was apparently that the missiles would be used primarily against tactical airfields closer to Ukraine - which is where they started building fortified airplane hangars. 

Using their intelligence, the Ukrainians instead attacked ammunition and weapons storage facilities. It is possible that in the future, the Ukrainians will attack airfields as well, though probably not the ones now being fortified. JL

Defense Express reports:

The Russians were preparing for the possibility that the US might authorize the use of these missiles on their territory, but they assessed the potential priority and geography of strikes incorrectly. In early October, they began construction of fortified hangars for aircraft at the Khalino airfield near Kursk. there were no hangars for military aircraft at Khalino airfield at all, although, before the start of the full-scale war against Ukraine

Kremlin Arrests Russian Commanders For Exaggerating Battlefield Gains

The unprecedented Kremlin demand for accountability from unit commanders suggests that Putin is furious and embarrassed about the lack of progress his forces have been able to make against numerically inferior and less well armed Ukrainian troops. JL

Brendan Cole reports in Newsweek:

Russian commanders have been removed from their positions for lying to their superiors about advances made on the battlefield in Donetsk and Luhansk. A culture of "lies has absorbed the command of the 3rd Combined Arms Army, which has caused Spetsnaz formations to be used to plug gaps and compensate for poor command decisions, which led to unnecessary losses. Russia's 6th and 123rd brigades were being investigated and "the entire command staff had been changed when a whirlwind of lies coming from Siversk," revealed brigade and battalion commanders had been arrested, removed or demoted for describing "the fake capture of settlements."

Mines Have Been Savaging Russian Attacks In Kursk, Destroying Their Armor

33% of Russian equipment destruction in their Kursk counteroffensive is due to Ukrainian mines. 

The reason is that the Russians continue to attack along the same roads, being heedless of casualties, making it easier for Ukrainian sappers to lay and re-lay their mines. JL

David Axe reports in Forbes:

Mines have accounted for a third of Russian vehicles in the nine days since the Russians launched their offensive in Kursk. In one assault, possibly a botched Nov. 7 attack by the 810th Naval Infantry Brigade, the Russians lost 17 vehicles “only due to detonation of mines.” A single Ukrainian engineering unit—the 12th Support Regiment—is responsible for laying mines. Russian commanders are doing the Ukrainian sappers a huge favor by ordering their forces to attack along the same roads, day after day despite previous defeats. The Ukrainians can concentrate their mines on the few roads leading into the most critical sector. Russian scouts are locating the mines "but before the attack, no one thought to clear the road.”

Why Venture Capital Firm Profits Are At An Historic Low

The primary issue for Venture firm profit distributions remains a lack of exit strategies, especially given the investment frenzy around AI.

The problem with AI is that most of the activity is concentrated in big tech, leaving fewer opportunities for startups in the space. Investors can make good or better money with established firms than with smaller firms. But the larger reality is that tech has matured as a sector, with all that implies for future growth, JL

Berber Jin reports in the Wall Street Journal:

Last year, U.S. venture firms returned $26 billion to their investors, the lowest amount since 2011 while U.S. venture firms invested $60 billion more than they collected. 2024 has continued the trend.  “We’ve raised a lot of money, and we’ve given very little back.” The decline is notable because the past three years have been the highest three on record for VC firm investments since 1998. Tech startups lack the allure they once had for investors, who are enjoying huge returns coming from established tech giants that have soared in value thanks to AI. Venture firms have made IPOs less necessary as they bankroll startups indefinitely. There are (now) more than 1,400 startups valued at $1 billion or more

Over 1,000 Troops Have Deserted Russia's 20th Guards Motor Rifle Div in Ukraine

Desertions from Russia's combat-deployed units in Ukraine are known to be rife, but 1,000 is an unusually large number, suggesting that the desertion and AWOL statistics may be even greater than believed. 

It is especially noteworthy that the 20th Motor Rifle carries the honored "Guards" designation, which usually means it is considered an elite unit with a history of strong performance. JL

Novaya Gazeta reports:

Over 1,000 Russian soldiers have deserted the 20th Guards Motor Rifle Division. 858 professional soldiers, 150 soldiers drafted during the mass mobilisation effort in September 2022, and two conscripts have abandoned the unit, bringing the total number to have deserted since the start of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine to 1,010. The 20th Division was deployed to Ukraine’s southern Kherson region in the first days of the war. Many servicemen went AWOL in the early days of the war when they realised it would last “longer than two weeks”, as their commanding officers initially promised.