ATACMS Secretly Shipped To Ukraine Already Hit Crimean Airfield, Russian Troops

The US secretly shipped ATACMS missiles to Ukraine last month, which have already been used to destroy a Russian military airfield in Crimea and troop concentrations in Zaporizhzhia oblast. 

The implication is that these missiles have a devastating impact and their deployment is a closely guarded secret. JL  

Courtney Kube reports in NBC:

The U.S. provided Ukraine with powerful long-range ballistic missiles for the first time earlier this month, and its military has already used them twice in the last week against Russian forces. The first strike was 100 miles inside Crimea’s border on the morning of April 17, targeting a Russian military airfield. The Ukrainian military used the U.S.-provided ATACMS, for the second time Tuesday night, targeting Russian forces east of the southeastern Ukrainian town of Berdyansk in Zaporizhzhia Oblast. The administration did not reveal at the time that it was sending Ukraine the long-range missiles for operational security reasons.

Why New US Aid To Ukraine Will Force Russia To Reconsider Its Strategy

The Russians spent all winter and spring trying to attack Ukrainian defenses. They have little to show for it but thousands of casualties and hundreds of destroyed armored vehicles. 

With new US aid, Ukraine can now strike strategic targets in Russia and anywhere in occupied Ukraine. If Russia couldnt prevail when Ukraine was at its weakest, it's time has passed. It will have find a way out. JL 

David Ignatius reports in the Washington Post:

The potential game changers in the conflict are the newly arriving ATACM-300 medium-range missiles. These precision weapons will allow Ukraine to strike deep into Russian-occupied territory in Crimea, Donbas and coastal regions, hitting Russian airfields, supply depots, staging areas and command-and-control centers in Ukraine. (And) new air-defense weapons for Ukraine “will again limit the use of Russian aviation at will." Ukraine’s air defenses will be bolstered by the “FrankenSAM” program to adapt Soviet-built launchers to use U.S. surface-to-air missiles. “The Russians are as tired and demoralized as the Ukrainians. In the longer term, Russia will have to reconsider its strategy.”

Ukraine Drones Destroy Russian Fuel Depots, Electricity Substations

Ukrainian long range drone attacks on Russian fuel supplies and electricity generation facilities are intended to degrade Russian military capabilities as well as affect the morale of Russian civilans in these areas which are far from the front line. JL 

Alisa Orlova and Kateryna Zakharchenko report in the Kyiv Post:

Russian fuel storage facilities in Yartsevo and Razdorovo, as well as electric substations in Kaluga and Bryansk, located in the Smolensk region, were hit by drones early Wednesday, April 24th. The attacks resulted in the destruction of 26,000 cubic meters of Russian fuel stored at these facilities. Another oil depot in the Voronezh region was hit by the drone attack as well. The primary objective was to disrupt the energy infrastructure supporting Russian military industry facilities. Following the attacks, certain areas reported experiencing disruptions in electricity and water supply.

As Casualties Rose In March, Russia Sentenced Record Numbers For Desertion

As casualties continue to rise, Russian courts have sentenced a record number of soldiers for desertion. Most are returned to the front for service in Storm Z 'meat attack' units. 

Asylum applications to western nations by Russians attempting to avoid being conscripted also hit a record in March. JL 

Sofiia Syngaivska reports in Defense Express:

In March 2024, Russian military courts sentenced a record high members of the armed forces of Russia for desertion. The total number of cases since partial mobilization in September 2022 is 7,400, with the Moscow area receiving the highest number. Many of the soldiers who have been tracked down and appear in military court are given suspended sentences, returned to their units and to the front. Asylum requests in Western nations from Russian nationals avoiding military service have (also) reached record levels

How New Aid Can Change the War's Momentum in Ukraine

Even before the US aid bill passed, Russian leaders were trying to find ways to reduce its punishingly high casualty rates. 

The new weapons and ammunition will enhance Ukrainian defenses while providing Ukraine's troops with the means to make additional opportunistic counterattacks. This will force Russia to change tactics and objectives, reducing its options. JL 

German Lopez reports in the New York Times:

The additional aid will make a meaningful difference, helping Ukraine restock pivotal artillery shells and antiaircraft munitions. Some will go for training to help address a Ukrainian shortage in personnel by preparing newer recruits for the front more quickly. It will also help Ukraine’s forces use weapons from Western allies like Abrams tanks and F-16 jets. Ukraine is likely to put aid to work on the eastern front. It could halt Russia’s recent progress, defend Kharkiv and territory along the Black Sea coastline. “With more aid, Ukraine will be able to solidify its defenses and keep its most important cities." If all goes well, Ukraine could launch an offensive campaign in 2025 to retake territory.

Cyber Startup Funding Jumps 69 Percent As AI, Operations Focus Offered

In an otherwise relatively sluggish venture funding environment, investor interest in  cybersecurity startups has jumped 69% between Q1 2024 and the last quarter of 2023.

Among the reasons are the proliferation of AI applications for cybersecurity as well as solutions focused on operational needs that may become among the first AI offerings designed to immediately address specific threats to business and other organizations' needs. JL 

Chris Metinko reports in CrunchBase:

Venture funding was still sluggish, but cybersecurity startups saw love from investors in the first quarter of 2024. Cybersecurity startups raised $2.7 billion in 154 deals in Q1, a 69% increase from the previous quarter, when cyber startups raised just $1.6 billion in 148 deals. VCs see value investing in cyber even as IT budgets are cut and competition increases. A big difference between Q1 and the previous quarter was 9 cybersecurity startup funding rounds of $100 million or more. Cyber startups trumpet the use of AI for automation or help provide guardrails, but operational technology security, IoT security platforms and cybersecurity for small and medium-sized enterprises also attract interest.

Cruise Missile Dropped on Belgorod Is 21st Russian Self-Bombing In 2 Months

This may reflect a loss of trained operators and the increased difficulty in sourcing targeting electronics.

On the plus side, this provides good practice in taking cover for the locals. JL 

Isabel Van Brugen reports in Newsweek:

An X-59 missile was discovered in a field near the village of Krasnoye in Russia's Belgorod region on April 19. Belgorod is located near the Ukrainian border and houses Russian military bases. The region has been rocked by explosions throughout Russia's invasion of Ukraine, with local authorities regularly reporting unmanned aerial vehicles. In March and April alone, Moscow forces have mistakenly dropped at least 21 aerial bombs from its aircraft on Russian soil. Russian authorities tend to cover up the incidents, saying that there was "an abnormal discharge of ammunition."