A Blog by Jonathan Low

 

Oct 17, 2024

The Secret Ukrainian Drone Unit That Launches Strikes Hitting Inside Russia

Ukraine's drone war targeting military bases, ammunition storage facilities, oil refineries and other logistical assets has been so successful that it has degraded Russia's ability to conduct operations in parts of Ukraine. 

But each mission requires detailed planning and preparation, with complicated attention to countering electronic  air defenses in order to hit the objective. JL

Sebastian Shukla and colleagues report in CNN:

More than 7,000 Ukrainian drone strikes have landed inside Russia this year. Drones, while highly effective, are not always that efficient – swarms of them are required to ensure their targets are hit. Smaller drones are crucial to the success of any mission. The aim is to overwhelm the air defenses and draw Russian fire away from the Liutyi, which often carries a payload as great as 250 kilograms (550 pounds). Each drone will be programmed with more than 1,000 different waypoints, to evade Russia’s air defense. There is tacit acceptance that this resembles a video game. "But it's not a game, it's a war. We are forcing the enemy to think about what they did in February 2022."

Putin's Strategy of Outlasting Ukraine Undermined By Massive Russian Losses

Since Russia's initial failure almost three years ago to subdue Ukraine "in three days," Putin has maintained that by relentlessly attacking, his forces will win a war of attrition.

But recent analyses reveal that the massive losses of manpower and equipment Russia has suffered in heedless assaults thwarted by Ukrainian forces have undermined that strategy and that Russia is unlikely to be able to generate sufficient military power to achieve even its lesser goals. JL

Olena Ivashkiv reports in Ukraine Pravda:

Russian leader Vladimir Putin's current theory of victory in Ukraine is aimed at prolonging the war, assuming Russian troops can outlast Western support for Ukraine, break Ukrainian resistance and win a war of attrition. (But) medium- to long-term limitations on Russia's ability to generate forces and produce military equipment hinder its capacity to sustain ongoing offensive operations. Putin’s strategy hinges on Russian forces maintaining continuous offensive efforts indefinitely, but these grueling attacks erode Russia’s manpower and resources to the point where they need to slow the pace of operations

The Witches Of Bucha: How A Ukrainian Air Defense Unit Protects Their Skies

Ukraine is increasingly reliant on women and older men to man the country's anti-drone air defenses. 

And they are doing a creditable job. JL

Sarah Rainsford reports in the BBC:

The Witches of Bucha, as they call themselves, are a volunteer air defence unit made up almost entirely of women, now helping to protect Ukraine’s skies as more and more men are sent to the frontlines.

How Paramount Takeover Personifies Hollywood's Streaming Debacle

Hollywood continues to believe that the answer to resentful consumers cancelling streaming services in the face of paying ever higher prices for reduced access and quality is to paper over declining profits with mega-mergers which will deliver ostensible synergies.

But as even students of Fourth Grade arithmetic understand, -1+-1 does not equal 5. All the mergers are doing is costing the entertainment industry jobs while consumers continue to resist paying more for the combined but fewer lower quality offerings. JL

Karl Bode reports in Tech Dirt:

Paramount announced a merger with Redbird/Skydance that executives promised would result in amazing “synergies,” transforming it into a streaming juggernaut. Of course what’s actually happened, as usual, has been a whole bunch of layoffs. With streaming subscriber growth slowing, quarterly returns have stagnated. So media giants have turned to the usual tricks: layoffs, megamergers, price hikes, and costly consumer restrictions to goose quarterly earnings and generate tax breaks. The new company is being overseen by Larry Ellison’s son David, who used family Oracle wealth to (become) a Hollywood producer, then a $6 billion gift from dad to make the merger. Paramount had struggled with its strategy of charging higher rates for lower quality services, and eyed a merger as an escape hatch. In reality, all the costs of debt-riddled transactions are borne by consumers

Russian Regiment Destroyed, 400 Hectares At Lyptsi Cleared By Ukraine Units

The Russians have never recovered from their initial failures in northern Kharkiv oblast. 

And the Ukrainians keep taking advantage of the Russians disorganization. JL

The Kyiv Post reports:

A successful operation liberated the forested area north of Lyptsi in the Kharkiv region. The operation, carried out by “Arthan” and “Kraken” units along with members of the International Legion, destroyed a regiment of Russian troops. Ukrainian scouts captured the Regiment's defensive area, destroyed three motorized infantry battalions, a “Storm” unit, and the reconnaissance company of the 7th Motorized Infantry Regiment of the Russian 11th army corps.

For 6th Time In 8 Months, Russian Troops Training Blown Up By Ukraine Rockets

Do Russian commanders never learn that there are surveillance drones tracking troop concentrations everywhere near the front - or do they simply not care? JL

David Axe reports in Forbes:

For the sixth time in eight months, Russian troops gathered out in the open for training within range of Ukraine’s rockets. Ukrainian batteries hit the assembled Russians with rockets packed with hundreds of grenade-sized submunitions—inflicting terrible carnageThe strike took place this week, at an outdoor gun range in Zaporizhzhia Oblast. A Ukrainian surveillance drone observed Russian soldiers practicing with their weapons—and passed along the coordinates to the 27th Rocket Artillery Brigade, the Ukrainian army's unit operating HIMARS. The death toll could be catastrophic for the targeted unit.

Oct 16, 2024

Chaotic Russian "Dragons' Teeth," Mine Placing Cause Kremlin Troop Casualties

Panicky Russian units in Kursk oblast, trying to stop Ukrainian advances are planting 'dragons' teeth,' mines and other defenses without informing nearby units. 

As a result, Russian troops trying to avoid Ukrainian drones are running into their own obstacles in darkness and at high speeds. JL

Defense Express reports:

Russian troops are suffering casualties as a result of the chaotic installation of "dragons' teeth" on roads in the Kursk region. The Russians are trying to organize defensive lines and build fortifications, but they are doing so chaotically, without informing neighboring units of their actions. The installation of concrete anti-tank structures took place without permission, on roads used for military rotation and as passage for "volunteers." The roads poses a danger to Russian troops due to Ukrainian FPV drones, which causes the Russians to move at a speed of 150 km/h. As a result of Russian units' undisciplined actions, approximately 40 soldiers died and another 40 were injured.