A Blog by Jonathan Low

 

Mar 27, 2025

Ukrainian Special Forces Capture Platoon Of Russian Marines at Toretsk

It is unusual for so many Russians in Ukraine to be captured at one time, which is supportive of rumors that declining morale among Russian units as casualties mount and talk of ceasefire negotiations is becoming endemic. JL 

Militarnyi reports:

The Ukrainian 12th Azov Special Forces Brigade captured 20 Russian marines in the Toretsk sector. Most of the captured soldiers served in the 9th Guards Motorized Rifle Brigade, which was formed from the 9th Marine Regiment of the Donetsk People’s Republic, (though) some of the prisoners are from the Caucasus or Far Eastern regions of Russia. “They were lucky to survive. Most of their “comrades” are still lying in the fields and forests after unsuccessful assaults.”

How Ukraine Is Training Its Next Generation of Drone Pilots

Ukraine's advantage in deploying of air, land and sea drones to thwart Russia's advances has led to greater demand for more and better drone operators. 

60 schools have sprung up in Ukraine to meet the need. Some are run by the military, but others are run by independent contractors or drone manufacturers who see the service as part of their obligation to the Ukrainian government which is buying their products. There are different courses for intelligence, surveillance and reconnaissance (ISR) drones and for FPV or attack drones. The schools and pilots have to be certified by the military and pass final exams that test their skills in navigation, accuracy and EW avoidance. The growing professionalization is one of the reasons that Ukraine's smaller army has been able to fight the Russians to a draw. JL

Kollen Post reports in the Kyiv Independent:

In addition to an ever-growing drone industry, the rise of UAVs has necessitated new education. Since 2022, 60 drone schools have popped up across Ukraine to train drone pilots to fight. The growth in graduates is a function of the professionalization of Ukraine’s drone army. One school run by a drone maker, started with surveillance drones and has added strike drones. A four-week course at one school, specializes in intelligence, surveillance, and reconnaissance, or ISR drones, mainly to direct artillery strikesIn addition to route mapping and GPS-jammed navigation, the final exam is heavy on take-off and landing. "The better we train, the better they use our drones."

"Signalgate" Isn't About Signal. In DC, the Coverup Is Always Worse Than the Crime

Signal, the service, is not the problem. As is increasingly becoming clear, Signal is a pretty good security tool. Not up to government classified communications standards, but among the best available commercial apps. 

The real issue is misuse of a publicly available app for highly classified comms. There is ongoing speculation about intent, eg, why would officials not use their state-of-the-art systems? The answer appears to be that by avoiding government supplied devices and apps, they can avoid scrutiny by using tools which are not legally or operationally required to record and transcribe conversations they don't want the public to know about. But carelessness of one type leads to other security failures, like inadvertently inviting a journalist to participate in that conversation. Which then leads to the final failure, as release of the transcripts reveals that several cabinet level officials lied to Congress: in Washington, the coverup is ALWAYS worse than the crime. JL

Andy Greenberg and Lily Newman report in Wired
:

“Signal is the consensus recommendation for highly at-risk communities - human rights activists, attorneys, and confidential sources for journalists.” Just not, as this week has made clear, executive branch officials planning airstrikes. The real lesson is if you’re a government official working with highly classified information, use the encrypted communication tools that run on restricted devices intended for a top-secret setting rather than unauthorized devices that run publicly available apps. “Signal is a tool. If you misuse a tool, bad things are going to happen.”

As Diplomats Bicker, Ukrainian Forces Have Halted Russians, Counterattacks Gain

As diplomats stake out positions and maneuver around negotiating tables far away, Ukrainian troops are widely credited with having seized the initiative from fatigued Russian forces. 

The Ukrainians' resilience is credited to more fully integrated drone-artillery-infantry combined arms coordination, more rapidly adaptive defensive capabilities and rising morale under the young, new ground forces who is considered 'one of them.' The result is that the already stagnant Russian advances have been stopped cold and Ukrainian troops are counterattacking to regain territory as well as better defensive positions. JL

Marc Santora and Liubov Sholudko report in the New York Times:

As diplomats talk about a possible truce, Ukrainian forces remain outnumbered and outgunned as they have been since Russia launched its invasion. But they have largely halted Russian advances this year and are now engaged in counterattacks to claw back land. Russia has failed to seize control of coveted Donetsk and Luhansk. Military analysts confirm the already glacial pace of Russian advances has largely stalled. Ukrainian soldiers credit their resilience to new defensive strategies that more completely integrate drones, rapid adaptation to shifting threats, signs of Russian fatigue and improving morale under new ground forces commander, Gen. Mykhailo Drapatyi which have blunted Russian advantages.

Mar 26, 2025

"More Than 80% Of Our Missiles Hit Their Targets" - Ukrainian F-16 Pilot

Like other Ukrainians using new and sophisticated western weapons systems, Ukraine's F-16 fighter pilots are proving adept at adopting the technology and demonstrating quick dominance. JL

Valentyna Romanenko reports in Ukraine Pravda:

In an interview with a Ukrainian F-16 fighter pilot, he says "more than 80% of the missiles we launch reach their targets, destroying both Shahed drones and cruise missiles launched from sea, air and land." Ukraine's F-16 fighter pilots carry out multiple strike missions a day on Russia and the temporarily occupied territories of Ukraine. Additionally, pilots conduct flights to cover fellow combat aviators operating MiG-29, Su-27, Su-24 and Su-25 aircraft.

Russian Luhansk Assaults Disrupted By Ukrainian Armor Destruction, Counterattacks

Ukrainian forces in Luhansk are continuing to disrupt Russian plans by eliminating Kremlin assault groups before they can reach the front and then following up with quick counterattacks. 

The strategy is working because it throws off Russian planning and support before assaults can be launched JL

Sofiia Syngaivska reports in Defense Express:

In recent weeks, intercepted Russian forces attempting to attack and in a swift counteroffensive, eliminating a Russian MT-LB and four additional armored vehicles. Ukrainian drone operators continue to inflict heavy losses on Russian forces, successfully destroying 16 enemy vehicles in recent weeks. Among the confirmed targets are five tanks, the BM-21 Grad multiple launch rocket system, two self-propelled artillery units, five armored fighting vehicles, the Strela air defense system, one cannon, and one armored personnel carrier.

Ukraine's Drones Cripple Russian Air Defenses, Causing More Internal Target Strikes

By systematically targeting and destroying dozens of Russian air defenses, including launch sites, electronic warfare systems and radars, Ukraine has now exponentially expanded the number of military and economic targets it can hit inside Russia. 

And its recent attacks on air bases, ammunition plants and oil/gas facilities are proof of the strategy's impact. JL 

Euromaidan Press reports:

The Ukrainians continued their campaign of striking Russia’s air defense network to open a path for attacks on critical infrastructure, and raised it to a new record intensity. Along the frontline they knocked out eleven different radar systems, along with the command posts of two others, four Pantsir-S1 air defense systems and a Buk launcher, effectively blinding Russian air defense efforts. Across Crimea they destroyed two S-300 launchers, three Pantsir-S1 air defense systems, a Mi-8 helicopter, and two rare Niobium-SV electronic warfare systems.