A Blog by Jonathan Low

 

Apr 4, 2025

Ukrainian Forces Continue To Advance Southwest of Pokrovsk, Liberate Nadiivka

Ukrainian forces are reportedly building on their recent successes in the Pokrovsk sector, advancing to its southwest and liberating additional villages.

Russia's momentum around Pokrovsk has been stopped and it is maneuvering to avoid further losses of territory. JL

Espreso Global reports:

Ukrainian forces advanced in the Pokrovsk sector, specifically along Lenin Street in western Novoielyzavetivka, southwest of Pokrovsk, and liberated Nadiivka. Ukrainian forces also counterattacked near Solone, advancing to its western outskirts and that Solone is a "grey zone." Russian forces launching 80 offensive actions in the Pokrovsk direction.

Russian Shot By Ukrainian Sniper At 1.5 KMs Using Armor-Piercing Incendiary Round

That is not even a record for Ukrainian sniping, which was set in December by a shot from 2069 meters. JL

Oleksandr Yan reports in Militarnyi:

A Ukrainian sniper eliminated a Russian infantryman with an accurate shot from a PGW LRT-3 large-caliber rifle at a distance of 1450 meters (1.5 kilometers)  with a 12.7x99mm armor-piercing incendiary round. The video recording and adjustments of the shooter were carried out with the help of SAFRAN JIM LR multifunctional binoculars with a laser rangefinder. Last December, an officer of the Ukrainian DIU Special Forces killed a Russian soldier at a distance of 2069 meters. The elimination of the invader became a record for Ukraine

Russian Armored Vehicle Exploded In Occupied Melitopol, Killing Chechen Troops

Doesn't sound like this was an accident...JL

Iryna Balachuk reports in Ukraine Pravda:

A Tigr armoured vehicle carrying pro-Russian Chechen units known as Kadyrovites has been destroyed in the temporarily occupied city of Melitopol. The Russians lost at least five Kadyrovites in the explosion "On 3 April, a Tigr armoured vehicle belonging to the Russians exploded on the outskirts of occupied Melitopol, Zaporizhzhia Oblast. On board were enemy crew members and paratroopers from the occupiers’ Akhmat Vostok unit."

"Devastating" Drone Swarm, Artillery Ambush "Wipes Out" Russian Donetsk Assault

The Russians attempted another armored assault in Donetsk with predictable results: Ukrainian surveillance drones saw the attack forming, Ukrainian artillery ambushed the vehicles and then combined drone and artillery bombardment finished off the survivors who fled into nearby fields. JL

Julia Struck reports in the Kyiv Post:

Russian forces launched a large-scale attack on Thursday, April 3, attempting to break through Ukrainian lines near Andriivka, 12 kilometers (7.5 miles) south of Bakhmut.  Ukrainian aerial reconnaissance spotted the column on the outskirts of Andriivka. Artillery then destroyed the lead vehicle, halting the convoy and blocking further movement. Fleeing Ukrainian fire, the Russian troops retreated into a nearby field, where they were targeted by drones, artillery, and air-dropped munitions. 7 armored vehicles were destroyed and 5 more damaged. “Ukrainian artillery and drones smeared a column of enemy armored vehicles.”

Cold Calculation: Ukraine's Recent Offensive Successes Trade Force For Speed

"Hit 'em where they ain't." That tactical wisdom was borne of lightning cavalry raids into the enemy's rear to sow destruction and confusion during the US Civil War.

In practical terms, it means identifying undermanned, poorly defended sectors where sparse, vulnerable Russian units with limited artillery, armor and drone support can be overwhelmed by relatively small units of fast, highly mobile troops carried by strong but readily sacrificed armor. The Russians like to mass overwhelming force in priority areas, which leaves many other sectors open to attack. Simultaneous decimation of local logistics makes the Kremlin defenders' tasks even harder. These targeted attacks and counterattacks have resulted in disruption of Russian plans, diversion of resources and expanded Ukrainian opportunities. JL 

Yevhenia Martinyuk reports in Euromaidan Press:

Ukrainian forces stormed into Russia’s Belgorod Oblast. This high-risk move exposes Russia's Sumy assault flanks to attack and reveals Ukraine’s brutal new tactical reality: for the past six months, they’ve been deliberately sacrificing armor to punch through Russian defenses, representing a cold strategic calculation: trading size for speed: "advancing 3-7 kilometers and capturing a position." These battalion-sized attacks target vulnerabilities: poorly defended areas where artillery isn’t fully deployed. Before striking, Ukrainians hit supply chains, leaving enemy positions under-resourced. As in Kursk, small mechanized group tactics (prepare) for larger breakthroughs as targeted counterattacks disrupt Russian momentum and create diversions, leading to expanded Ukrainian control zones.

Was ChatGPT Used To Make the Economic Calculations For Latest US Tariffs?

A growing number of economists, business reporters and AI fans have now examined whether the latest White House tariff calculations were based on a formula recommended by four of the most popular AI chatbots: ChatGPT, Gemini, Claude and Grok.

The answer is that all of them provide remarkably similar responses to the same question about how to generate an easy way to solve trade deficits by using a "deficit divided by exports" calculation. There are myriad serious problems with this approach, which can generally be summarized as 'oversimplified,' since it ignores "tradeoffs and complications." But it does provide an answer, if speed and ease of use are more important than accuracy, as has so often been the key to tech adoption. JL

Dominic Preston reports in The Verge:

10% tariff (has been imposed) on all imports into the US, plus high rates on specific countries, based on “tariffs charged to the USA.” Where did these numbers come from? Like people whose homework is due in three hours, they may have been tempted by an oversimplified calculation major AI chatbots recommend. If you ask ChatGPT, Gemini, Claude, or Grok for an “easy” way to solve trade deficits and put the US on “an even playing field”, they’ll give you a version of this “deficit divided by exports” formula. (One can) recreate the White House’s numbers by taking a country’s trade deficit with the US and dividing it by their total exports to the US. Halve that number, and you get a “discounted reciprocal tariff." The bots caution that there are tradeoffs and complications.

Apr 3, 2025

Ukrainian FPV Drone Strikes Cause Russian Armor, 37 Trucks To "Disappear"

It has been a difficult month for Russian forces attempting to attack Ukrainian positions in Donetsk. 

Ukraine's FPV drone forces have been having a field day. JL

Defense Express reports:

Ukrainian troops  repelled an enemy assault in Donetsk Oblast, destroying several enemy armored vehicles, including two infantry fighting vehicles and a tank. Drone operators from the Phoenix reconnaissance and strike UAV unit delivered precise strikes on a Russian logistics unit, causing them to lose several dozen trucks. "Massive destruction of enemy logistics in the Kupiansk sector causes 37 trucks to disappear!"