Russia Is Flying Fewer Drone Types Over Ukraine, Making Them Easier To Target

Russia's and Ukraine's approach to manufacturing drones is reflective of their cultures: Russia's is centralized, focused on mass production, while Ukraine's is more entrepreneurial and innovative. 

The Russian system encourages scale, but it also leads to widespread problems because one wrong component can affect an entire fleet of drones. And using just a few models repeatedly has enabled Ukraine to identify their vulnerabilities.  JL

Sinead Baker reports in Business Insider:

Russia has focused on making bigger numbers of just a few models. While this has helped it produce them at scale, it also aids Ukrainian drone operators in identifying them and developing a sense of how to defeat them. "it's very easy to identify them. They rarely make any changes to the design." Russia's more centralized process (also) means that "if there's an error with a component part, then it will be an error that spreads across systems. If there's a loophole that allows you to hack, then it spreads across all systems and makes them vulnerable."

Lack of Mine Clearing Funnels Russian Attacks To Obvio us Roads, Dooming Troops

Among their other shortages, Russian troops have an insufficient number of mine clearing vehicles and other equipment. This forces them to stick to roads they know - or believe - they have cleared, which makes them easy targets for Ukrainian forces anticipating the obvious routes. 

The result is even more losses and casualties for Russian units attempting to attack. JL

David Axe reports in Forbes:

As Russia’s wider war on Ukraine grinds into its 38th month, it’s increasingly rare for Russian regiments to muster a full assault group with at least a dozen armored vehicles and scores of infantry. Ukraine has become the most heavily mined country on earth. A Russian assault group with enough mine-clearing support, and time to use it, might attack right through a possible Ukrainian minefield. An assault group without mine-clearing support might have no choice. “Ukrainian forces ... seek to anticipate the routes to be used for attacks each day and lay anti-personnel and anti-tank mines and prepare fires to engage Russian troops before they [reach Ukrainian] positions.” 

Ukraine Drone Strikes Cost Russia 900,000 Barrels Of Oil Per Day, 12% of Capacity

The economic impact of Ukrainian drone strikes on Russian oil refineries has become so severe that it is causing the Kremlin to change its export policies. 

Russia will now be forced to ship more crude oil than  more profitable refined energy products because of sustained damage to refineries. It will also attempt to increase exports in order to compensate for the lost revenue from energy exports cut back by the Ukrainian attacks. JL

Bojan Lepic reports in Splash:

Ukraine’s drone campaign to knock out Russian refining capacity is scoring big hits, with as much as 12% of the world’s largest country’s refineries forced to suspend operations. There were 15 drone attacks against 13 oil refineries in nine regions of Russia in 2024, including nine in just one week. JPMorgan Chase estimates the attacks have taken 900,000 barrels a day of Russian oil refining capacity offline. It could be “several weeks, if not months” until capacity is restored. The knock-on effect for tanker shipping is that Moscow may decide to ship more crude than product in the coming weeks while urgent repairs are carried out at multiple facilities. The country will increase oil exports by 10%.

Why "Sudden, Erratic" Tariffs Sank the Dollar Rather Than Raising It As Expected

One of the administration's economic goals was to have tariffs raise the value of the dollar, on the theory that fewer imports would narrow the trade deficit which would drive up the dollar. 

But the opposite has occurred as the dollar has dropped versus other currencies even as the equity markets have cratered. The reason is that the combination of erratic and retribution-driven financial policies have reduced faith in American economic and innovation potential. Business prefers to invest when it has relative certainty, not volatility and unpredictability. JL

Jon Sindreu reports in the Wall Street Journal:

On Thursday and Friday, stocks tumbled following Trump’s unveiling of punishing tariffs. What was unexpected is that the U.S. dollar tumbled. The WSJ Dollar Index, based on a basket of currencies, has lost 5.9% this year and is below where it was on election day. Dollar strength is largely due to investments that track growth in economic productivity driven by Silicon Valley profits turning the U.S. into a massive exporter of tech goods and services. (But) U.S. growth becomes tainted by protectionism and China's AI challenge. Focusing too much on trade deficits overlooks the competitiveness and profitability of American products play in determining the dollar’s value. The sudden, erratic tariffs dampen investment, (causing) faith in the U.S.’s long-term economic potential to fade.

Russian General Fired After 1,000s Casualties In Failed 2 Year Bilohorivka Assault

The battle of Bilohorivka has become synonymous for the failed Russian invasion of Ukraine. Once a thriving town, but now a smoking heap of rubble, Russian forces have been trying to take it for two years, suffering thousands of casualties. 

But they have failed to advance to any significant degree which led a few months ago to the firing of the Russian general commanding the entire southern front for false reporting of successes while covering up fruitless assaults, inadequate artillery support and massive casualties. JL

Euromaidan Press reports:

Recent reports indicate Russian forces have sustained 3,000 casualties in trying to take Bilohorivka in just ten months. Fighting over Bilohorivka has been ongoing for over 2 years. The battle for Bilohorivka has become synonymous with the fruitless Russian efforts in many sectors of the front, trying to achieve the most minor territorial gains, regardless of the cost. In late 2024, Colonel General Gennady Anashkin was dismissed as commander of the Southern Grouping of Forces for providing false reports about battlefield successes near Bilohorivka, leading to unprepared assaults, insufficient fire support missions, and significant casualties.

Ukrainian Forces Continue To Advance Southwest of Pokrovsk, Liberate Nadiivka

Ukrainian forces are reportedly building on their recent successes in the Pokrovsk sector, advancing to its southwest and liberating additional villages.

Russia's momentum around Pokrovsk has been stopped and it is maneuvering to avoid further losses of territory. JL

Espreso Global reports:

Ukrainian forces advanced in the Pokrovsk sector, specifically along Lenin Street in western Novoielyzavetivka, southwest of Pokrovsk, and liberated Nadiivka. Ukrainian forces also counterattacked near Solone, advancing to its western outskirts and that Solone is a "grey zone." Russian forces launching 80 offensive actions in the Pokrovsk direction.

Russian Shot By Ukrainian Sniper At 1.5 KMs Using Armor-Piercing Incendiary Round

That is not even a record for Ukrainian sniping, which was set in December by a shot from 2069 meters. JL

Oleksandr Yan reports in Militarnyi:

A Ukrainian sniper eliminated a Russian infantryman with an accurate shot from a PGW LRT-3 large-caliber rifle at a distance of 1450 meters (1.5 kilometers)  with a 12.7x99mm armor-piercing incendiary round. The video recording and adjustments of the shooter were carried out with the help of SAFRAN JIM LR multifunctional binoculars with a laser rangefinder. Last December, an officer of the Ukrainian DIU Special Forces killed a Russian soldier at a distance of 2069 meters. The elimination of the invader became a record for Ukraine