A Blog by Jonathan Low

 

Mar 20, 2025

Ukraine's Long Range Drone Strikes Are Hurting Russia's Energy Industry

One of the reasons that Putin agreed to a partial ceasefire ostensibly ending attacks on each country's energy infrastructure is that Ukraine's long range drones are having a notable impact on Russian oil refining, pipeline transportation and export revenue. 

This effects both the Russian economy and its war effort, so is a cost effective 'two-fer' that the Kremlin is having difficulty overcoming. JL 

Lizzie Johnson and Kamila Hrabchuk report in the Washington Post:

Developed and built in Ukraine, deep-strike drones are the country’s main tool for bringing the war home to the Kremlin at distances inside Russia not open to Western weaponry. Packed with 165 pounds of explosives and capable of flying distances up to 2,000 kilometers, or 1,240 miles, the Liutyi drones are similar to Iranian Shaheds. The damage wrought by the program has complicated Russian war efforts, leaving ammunition warehouses and oil depots burning for days. “The strikes are cost effective, good for morale, complicate Russian planning, and tie up air defenses. They also show that Russia isn’t invulnerable and cannot attack Ukraine with impunity. "

The first drone rattled to life just before sunset, sending the smell of gasoline wafting on the spring breeze.

A soldier in a balaclava crouched beneath the car-size aircraft, called a Liutyi, adjusting its position for takeoff. Soon it would zip hundreds of miles over the Ukrainian border, sending 165 pounds of explosives to a target deep inside Russia, possibly an oil installation of some kind.

Developed and built in Ukraine, the deep-strike drones are the country’s main tool for bringing the war home to the Kremlin at distances inside Russia not open to Western weaponry. The units, however, might not have many missions left amid talk this week of a partial ceasefire for energy infrastructure.

Ukraine’s 14th Unmanned Aerial Systems Regiment allowed The Washington Post a rare and exclusive visit earlier this month to watch these drones launch — an operation so sensitive that The Post agreed not to disclose the location of the runway, an expanse of grass and cracked concrete where more than a dozen long-range drones waited in a line on an evening in mid-March.

 

Verifying the damage wrought by the program is difficult, but officials in Ukraine and the West say that it’s complicated some Russian war efforts, leaving ammunition warehouses and oil depots burning for days. Last week, in a show of force, more than 300 Ukrainian drones descended on Moscow in what the city Mayor Sergei Sobyanin called its “largest drone attack” of the war.

On Wednesday, the day President Donald Trump and Russian President Vladimir Putin talked on the phone, drones struck an oil depot — already damaged in an attack last month — in Russia’s Krasnodar region, igniting a massive blaze that more than 170 firefighters were struggling to contain.

Planning a mission is “an extremely meticulous process,” said Casper, first battalion commander of the 14th Regiment, one of several service members whom The Washington Post agreed to identify by call sign, in accordance with Ukrainian military protocol. “Anyone who thinks launching a drone is as simple as pressing a button is completely mistaken.”

On the runway, darkness had chased much of the orange and pink from the sky, offering the protection of night — though the risk of exposure to a Russian surveillance drone or a counterattack is always high.

The drone’s control panel blinked green. A silver vehicle pulled up behind it, pilot hunched over a laptop in the passenger seat, face awash in the glow of the computer screen. He would manually guide the drone down the runway until it gained enough speed to take off and go on autopilot into Russia.

The driver hit the gas. Spotlit by headlights, the drone sped down the dark runway, faster and faster, until it reached 100 mph. The silver vehicle followed closely behind, taillights fading to pinpricks of red on the horizon.

The drone took off.

Soldiers rolled up another to take its place at the head of the line. Engine sputtering like a lawn mower, it coughed smoke.

Each launch took less than 10 minutes, allowing hundreds of drones to go airborne in a single mission. At a cost of $200,000 per drone, millions of dollars’ worth of aircraft were often sitting on the runway all at once.

“The meaning of the deep strikes is huge,” said one of the unit’s co-founders, who goes by the call sign Fidel. “Through targeting inside Russia, we are cutting off supplies for many different Russian military armored units.”

The drones can hit targets more than 1,000 miles inside Russia, while the maximum range of the U.S. or European missiles used by Ukraine is less than 200 miles.

While the strikes “certainly have value and are cost-effective,” said Michael Kofman, a senior fellow in the Russia and Eurasia Program at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, “their impact shouldn’t be overstated.”

“The strikes are good for morale, complicate Russian planning, and tie up air defenses,” he said. “They show that Russia isn’t invulnerable and cannot attack Ukraine with impunity. But unlike cruise missiles, most drones launched are shot down. The damage they inflict to Russian infrastructure has so far not been able to change the dynamic in this war, but nonetheless is something Moscow undoubtedly wants to halt.” As few as 30 percent of deep-strike drones hit their mark, said the regiment’s press officer, who goes by the call sign Augur.

Still, Ukraine is at the forefront of evolving drone technology. Last year, it became the first country to dedicate a branch of the military solely to drone warfare, officials here said, offering a future security guarantee that isn’t contingent on Western aid.

The Unmanned Systems Forces of Ukraine has in its arsenal all types of drones, including those that operate underwater and in the air. President Volodymyr Zelensky said in February 2024 that they had “proven their effectiveness in battles on land, in the sky and at sea.” This week, he announced that Ukrainian drones had been successfully tested at distances of up to 3,000 kilometers, or about 1,860 miles.

In a January telethon, the then-Ukrainian Deputy Minister of Defense Dmytro Klimenkov said deep-strike drones made up 60 percent of the unit’s budget in 2024, with more than 30,000 of the drones being produced for the military this year. Packed with explosives and capable of flying distances up to 2,000 kilometers, or 1,240 miles, the Liutyi drones are similar to the Iranian Shaheds have been heavily used by the Russians during the war — but with their own message of vengeance inscribed on the fuselage: “Az vozdam,” or “I will repay.” On this evening, Casper had his own message for Russia.

As the vehicle swung around and readied for takeoff, he pulled out a white marker and scribbled on the wing of a drone near the back of the pack. Sometimes he’d write names — of volunteers or individuals who raised money for war efforts — to honor them. Tonight, he had something different in mind:

“From Ukraine, with love,” encircled with a heart. The drone would soon tunnel through the sky for six to eight hours before walloping its final destination in a blast of flames — if it made it that far.

On this evening, Augur declined to clarify what the drones were aimed at, specifying only “the Russian Federation.” For more information, he said to “check the news in the morning.”

Unlike Russia, which has repeatedly targeted civilian infrastructure in Ukraine — including city parks, apartment buildings and even a children’s hospital — Augur said the regiment only aimed at military infrastructure, such as ammunition warehouses, airfields or energy installations powering Russia’s army.

“When we do planning, if there is any chance — even a small one — that we could impact civilian infrastructure, we wouldn’t do that,” Fidel said. “I know that for sure because I’m involved in planning.”

Russia would argue otherwise. Ukraine’s massive drone attack on Moscow in early March killed three employees of a meat warehouse and was, the Russian Ministry of Foreign Affairs said in a statement, evidence that Ukraine “strives to kill and maim as many innocent people as it can.” The pavement shook as drone after drone leaped into the air, the vehicle’s headlights cutting up and down the runway, ushering them off on their journey.

Drone operators were too busy to speak with a reporter during the mission, but on a later phone call, an operator explained: “I’m sitting in the front seat monitoring basic information about speeds, altitude. We just have to be sure that it’s seeing what we are seeing. You are 100 percent focused on the task.”

Much of the work came in preceding days, when routes were created for the mission, said the operator, who spoke on the condition of anonymity due to security concerns.

“This type of drones, we control only on the launch site,” he said. “After it’s in the air, we still have connection — but it’s not a big range, we just know all systems are running properly, that altitude is right, and that our [drones] are ready to go and make some Russians pay for some deeds.”

The work was important, he said, adding, “When I get old, when I’m a grandpa, I will tell my grandchildren about this.”

About an hour after the first drone had launched — with two still left on the runway — the air alert blared, warning of an incoming threat. Soldiers rolled the two remaining Liutyis off the cement, then scattered into the dark to take cover. The next morning, Russia released its report of overnight attacks.

Long-range Ukrainian drones had hit industrial facilities in its Kaluga, Rostov and Voronezh regions, leaving some buildings aflame. Another 77 Ukrainian drones were destroyed, the report said.

Augur said he could not confirm whether the drones The Post had watched launch the previous evening were responsible. When asked if the Liutyi carrying the handwritten message from Ukraine had hit its target, though, Augur agreed to find out.

That drone, he later said, had been shot down.

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