Russian Offensives Stall Amid Ukraine's Belgorod Counter

Russian offensive operations in Kursk, the Donbas and south around Zaporizhzhia have stalled as the Kremlin transfers more troops to Kursk and Belgorod in its attempt to retake Russian territory seized by Ukrainian troops. 

Severe casualties in Kursk combined with Ukraine's surprise Belgorod incursion have caused the Russian advance in Kursk to halt while units there 'reorganize' due to losses of men and equipment. Redeployments from other sectors have had a similar impact along the rest of the front, as Russia confronts its dwindling resources. JL

Ellie Cook reports in Newsweek:

The pace of Moscow's advances in Ukraine has slowed considerably,  as Kyiv plugs away with its cross-border operations in the Belgorod region and pulls back from the neighboring west Russian Kursk region. Moscow was "still sending their units to the Belgorod region," with Ukraine "stretching" Russian troops by broadening attacks on the border. Russian troops did not advance close to the major northeastern Ukrainian city of Kharkiv, close to the city of Kupiansk to the southeast, nor south around Borova and further down the front line.

The pace of Moscow's advances in Ukraine has slowed considerably, according to a Russian investigative outlet, as Kyiv plugs away with its cross-border operations in the Belgorod region and pulls back from the neighboring west Russian Kursk region.

Why It Matters

Kyiv launched a surprise incursion into Kursk in August 2024, quickly gaining swathes of territory close to the border. While Russian and North Korean troops had managed to peel back some of Ukraine's control, Moscow had struggled to push Ukrainian forces from the major settlement of Sudzha until it launched a fresh offensive earlier this month.

Russian servicemen stand by a BM-21 Grad multiple rocket launcher in Belgorod region, Russia, on November 16, 2024. This image was provided to The Associated Press by a third party and could not be independently...  Sergey Bobylev / Sputnik via AP

What To Know

The chunk of territory held by Kyiv's forces has provided Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky with a bargaining chip in ceasefire negotiations, particularly on the difficult issue of territory, in the face of Russian gains in Ukraine's east.

 

As Kyiv's grasp on Kursk shrank, Moscow said Ukraine had carried out cross-border attacks into the Belgorod border region, next to Kursk.

Moscow said on Tuesday that Ukraine had attempted to attack over the border in the western part of Belgorod, close to the villages of Demidovka and Prilesye. Both sit just south of Kursk.

Kyiv attacked with roughly 200 soldiers and five tanks, the Russian Defense Ministry said.

One of Russia's influential military bloggers, Two Majors, reported on Sunday that Moscow was "still sending their units to the Belgorod region," with Ukraine "stretching" Russian troops by broadening attacks on the border

 

"The enemy, having freed up forces from the Kursk direction, is constantly attacking the junction of our border" in Belgorod, the account said. Another prominent pro-war account reported on Sunday that Kyiv was "still trying to transfer small groups of infantry to the border area of ​​the Belgorod region, using light armored vehicles."

 

The account claimed Russia had destroyed "the vast majority of detected forces and assets" including a Western-donated Leopard tank. Newsweek could not independently verify this.

Ukraine's "plans in this direction remain unclear," the account added.

Russian investigative outlet Agentstvo reported earlier this week that Russian forces had gained just 22.5 square kilometers of territory in Ukraine between March 10 and March 16. The outlet cited data provided by popular Ukrainian war-tracking blog, Deep State.

 

The U.S.-based think tank, the Institute for the Study of War (ISW) said on Saturday that over the previous day, Russia had continued attacking remaining Ukrainian positions in Kursk, but had not managed to advance.

Ukrainian forces carried out "limited attacks" in Belgorod, but did not offer an assessment on which troops had advanced.

Russian troops did not advance close to the major northeastern Ukrainian city of Kharkiv, close to the city of Kupiansk to the southeast, nor south around Borova and further down the front line toward Lyman, the think tank assessed.

There was no confirmed advancement for Russia around Chasiv Yar, Toretsk, Kurakove and Velyka Novosilka, the ISW said.

 

Moscow's forces did advance around Siversk, north of the destroyed city of Bakhmut, as well as in the west of the southeastern Zaporizhzhia region, the ISW said.

Both Russia and Ukraine made gains around Pokrovsk, according to the think tank. The Ukrainian city has long borne the brunt of some of the heaviest fighting.

What People Are Saying

WarGonzo, one of Russia's military bloggers, said on Sunday: "Belgorod region. There are no significant changes in the line of combat contact here."

Ukraine's General Staff said on Saturday that its forces had "successfully struck a command and control post" in Belgorod, knocking out Russian communications devices used to coordinate attacks in Ukraine's Sumy and Kharkiv regions.

 

What Happens Next

Fighting between Russian and Ukrainian troops on both sides of the border will likely continue as separate sets of talks with U.S. teams get underway in Saudi Arabia.