Belgorod Assault By Ukrainians Creates Long Term Buffer, Disrupts Kremlin Plans

Russia's Belgorod oblast borders Ukraine's Sumy, Kharkiv and Luhansk, enabling it to serve as a launch pad for attacks on those Ukrainian territories.

By quietly and surprisingly launching a new offensive in Belgorod, Ukraine has achieved several objectives: it disrupts Kremlin plans for new attacks, it help creates a buffer which increases the difficulty of potential future offensives - and it forces the Russian command to react to Ukrainian initiative while diverting Russian forces. All of which strengthen Ukraine's position. JL 

Iona Cleave reports in The Telegraph:

Ukraine's new Belgorod incursion relieves pressure on Ukraine’s remaining troops in Kursk and protects their right flank from Russian attack. Belgorod borders Ukraine’s Sumy, Kharkiv and Luhansk regions and is used by Russian forces to launch attacks on Ukraine. The sudden rush of soldiers across the border helps protect Ukraine against a Russian offensive by diverting those forces. (And) by breaching Russia’s defensive lines, Kyiv’s forces improved their tactical position and seized back some of the initiative, “forcing Russia to react to the plans of Ukraine's command.” That Ukraine is still attacking after nine days suggests Ukraine is trying to establish a long-term buffer zone.”

As dawn broke over the western Russian region of Belgorod, a growing thrum could be heard near its heavily fortified border with Ukraine.

The sound came from a column of tanks and fighting vehicles storming across muddy fields, carving a path through minefields and lines of dragon’s teeth barricades.

It was the start of a new incursion into Russian territory.

That was last week and, despite the Kremlin’s claims that the attack was thwarted, a relatively small collection of Ukraine’s forces are moving forward and steadily capturing ground.

The battle plan has been closely guarded, and it is still unclear whether the Belgorod incursion was intended as a brief raid or a longer-term operation.

 

There is currently fierce fighting in the villages of Demidovka, Prilesye and Popovka, according to the Institute for the Study of War, a US think-tank.

Ukraine has also been carrying out a series of precision air strikes, targeting command posts, bridges, helicopters and depots.

There are several reasons why Ukraine may have acted so decisively for more war at a time when it is also pleading for peace.

Belgorod borders Ukraine’s Sumy, Kharkiv and Luhansk regions and is regularly used by Russian forces to launch attacks on Ukraine.

Volodymyr Zelensky has said only that his military was taking “strategic steps” to counter a potential Russian offensive from Sumy, where there has been a troop build-up.

The sudden rush of soldiers across the border could help protect Ukraine against a Russian offensive in Sumy by diverting those forces.

Crucially, Belgorod is also next to Kursk, where the last Ukrainian troops are holding on to a sliver of high ground, trying to cling on to Kyiv’s big military gamble that it hoped would provide a bargaining chip during ceasefire negotiations.

 

The new incursion could help relieve pressure on Ukraine’s last remaining troops in Kursk and protect their right flank from a Russian attack.

However, unlike in Kursk, when Kyiv’s forces caught Russia by surprise and rapidly seized hundreds of miles of territory, the Ukrainian gains have been slower and staggered.

“Russia seems to have been better prepared for this operation,” said John Hardie, deputy director of the Russia programme at the Foundation for Defence of Democracies.

“And this operation is considerably smaller in scale and its objectives,” he told The Telegraph. He described the force size as “modest”, likely totalling less than a battalion of 500 soldiers.

“At present, we are essentially talking about a limited number of Ukrainian units advancing through the fortified strip along the border, which the Russians have been actively reinforcing for two years,” said Olesia Horiainova, co-founder of the Ukrainian Security and Cooperation Centre, a Kyiv-based think-tank.

By breaching Russia’s defensive lines, Kyiv’s forces have improved their tactical position and seized back some of the initiative, “forcing Russia to react to the plans of the Ukrainian command rather than imposing its own,” said Ms Horiainova.

“Ukrainian command has repeatedly demonstrated its ability to surprise the world with effective and unexpected offensive operations, including on Russian territory.”

While the Kremlin has been defiant, there is dissent in Moscow.

“How did this happen? Russian forces completely f----d up... They just gave it up. They just left. After that, the enemy occupied it,” fumed well-known Russian war correspondent Vladimir Romano on Sunday as he reported the loss of Demidovka.

Reports suggest that some of Ukraine’s best units have been deployed to the operation as well as dozens of US-supplied Bradley fighting vehicles.

Rybar, an influential pro-Kremlin military blogger, said fierce battles were ongoing in Demidovka on Wednesday as Russian troops fought back. “The enemy has repeatedly tried to enter our strongholds across the border,” he wrote on Telegram.

“The situation remains tense,” he said, and cited Russian military reports that Ukraine was continuing to mass troops and vehicles on the border.

 

Two Majors, another prominent Telegram channel, reported that Ukraine was “stretching” Russian troops along the frontline by broadening attacks on the border.

“The gains have so far been modest, but Ukraine is advancing and taking high ground,” said Mr Hardie, who argued it was still “too early” to say whether it was having meaningful effects elsewhere along the front.

“The fact that Ukraine is still attacking after nine days suggests Ukraine is more likely trying to have a long-term presence to establish a buffer zone.”

Kyiv may be hoping this incursion will bolster its position at ceasefire talks.

“It’s a risky plan,” Mr Hardie said, citing Kyiv’s broad manpower shortages and the uncertainties in future military aid deliveries from the US. “If it drags on, can Ukraine sustain big losses in Belgorod? Will it be worth it?”