With 5 Ukraine Drones Per 1 Russian, Average Survival Down To 8 Days

Ukraine's drone advantage is contributing to the failure of Russian forces to advance in Donbas, Kursk and elsewhere along the front. 

With five Ukrainian drones for every Russian soldier in some sectors, the survival time at the front for Russians is down to eight days. Just 20% of attacking Russians survive an average assault. Even with a Kremlin leadership indifferent to loss of life the law of big numbers suggests this is unlikely to last long. JL

David Axe reports in Forbes:

The Ukrainians’ overwhelming drone advantage doesn’t mean they’re winning the war. But it might be preventing them from losing as Russia mobilizes more soldiers, marching them into battle with less and less support. Russia suffered more killed and injured troops in 2024 than in the previous two years combined. In the busiest sectors, there are five Ukrainian drones for every Russian soldier. Attacks might last a few minutes before most of the attackers are dead or wounded. Russian assault groups are “suicide bombers.”  On average, just one out of five infantry survive an assault. Many Russian recruits die within days of deploying to the front line - “Just eight days from signing to death.”

Ukrainian drones were watching the whole time as a lone Russian BTR-82 wheeled fighting vehicle raced across the shell-pocked no-man’s-land in broad daylight outside Pokrovsk recently.

 

Firing its autocannon as it moved, the vehicle succeeded in reaching the ruins of a building. The 11 Russian infantry packed surely didn’t know the drones were waiting directly overhead. They didn’t know, as they piled out of the vehicle, they had seconds to live.

The drones from the Ukrainian 5th Assault Brigade dropped bombs on the hapless infantry, killing all 11.

The small, unsupported and doomed assault is indicative of wider trends across the 800-mile front line of Russia’s wider war on Ukraine as the conflict grinds into its 36th month. Attacks might last a few minutes before most or all of the attackers are dead or wounded. Many Russian recruits die within days of deploying to the front line.

“A guy, 18 years old, [had] 20 minutes at the front,” one Russian defector told media including The Moscow Times and Radio Free Europe. “A [first-person-view] drone flew at him with a TNT block—that was it. They turn [you] to dust straight away.” In the busiest sectors, there are five Ukrainian drones for every Russian soldier, the defector said.

The Ukrainians’ overwhelming drone advantage doesn’t mean they’re winning the war. But it might be preventing them from losing as Russia continues mobilizing more soldiers and marching them into battle with less and less support. The lucky Russians ride in the dwindling number of armored vehicles. The unlucky ones ride in compact cars—or walk.

 

The Russians are still advancing. But every yard they capture costs them dearly. Russian war correspondent Roma Sapozhnikov expressed dismay recently when he learned that many recruits survive just a week after signing their contracts. “Just eight days from signing to death,” Sapozhnikov wrote.

According to Gen. Oleksandr Syrskyi, the top Ukrainian commander, Russia suffered 434,000 casualties, including 150,000 dead in 2024. That’s more killed and injured Russian troops than in the previous two years combined. Total Russian casualties since February 2022 could be close to 800,000.

Ukrainian losses since early 2022 are much lower: 43,000 killed and 370,000 injured, Ukrainian Pres. Volodymyr Zelensky said in December. In the best-defended sectors, the Ukrainians kill seven Russians for every Ukrainian soldier the Russians kill, the defector claimed.

Russian assault groups are practically “suicide bombers,” according to the defector. On average, he said, just one out of five infantry survive an assault. In that sense, the 11-person squad the Ukrainian 5th Assault Battalion massacred outside Pokrovsk recently was only slightly less lucky than the typical Russian squad.

How long the Kremlin can sustain such a costly war effort is a question only the Kremlin—and Russian society at large—can answer. But the answer isn’t “indefinitely.”