Russia's Ukraine Failure Sparked Syrian Rebels, Upset Kremlin Ceasefire Plan

The Syrian rebels attacked last week because they could see that the Russian presence in their country had become degraded by the war in Ukraine, where Russia's ostensible superiority in troop numbers and equipment has not delivered victory - and where it has been clearly demonstrated that American/NATO weaponry is far superior to Russia's. That Israel has decimated Russia's and Iran's Hamas and Hezbollah allies is another blow to the Russian-Iranian axis of evil.

This now gives the US and NATO an opportunity to pressure Putin into better terms for Ukraine before his global aspirations literally go up in smoke. JL

Walter Russell Mead reports in the Wall Street Journal:

With Assad’s Hezbollah allies decimated, his Russian backers stretched in Ukraine, and his Iranian paymasters reeling under Israel’s blows, rebel forces smelled weakness, and came down from the hills. The rebel victory in Aleppo is a direct consequence of the wars in Ukraine and the Levant. The superiority of American weaponry over Russian gear has been convincingly demonstrated. Ukraine’s gallant resistance to Russian aggression has degraded Russia’s global capabilities and reduced Vladimir Putin’s power to aid his pals. To get better peace terms for Ukraine, and to restore the balance of power worldwide, Washington should tighten the screws on Mr. Putin in Syria.

The Middle East never loses its capacity to surprise. This week the surprises are from Syria, where the embers of the long-smoldering rebellion against President Bashar al-Assad’s murderous regime have burst into flames. With Mr. Assad’s Hezbollah allies decimated, his Russian backers stretched in Ukraine, and his Iranian paymasters reeling under Israel’s hammer blows, the rebel forces smelled weakness, and they came down from the hills.

The collapse of Mr. Assad’s poorly trained army of sullen conscripts humiliated the regime. The loss of Aleppo has wounded it. Before civil war wrecked the Syrian economy, Aleppo was the country’s commercial capital. It’s where Mr. Assad kicked the rebels to the curb in four years of bitter warfare starting in 2012. The regime’s 2016 victory in Aleppo signaled to the world that Mr. Assad was here to stay.

Now a loose coalition of rebel groups has retaken the city as Mr. Assad’s demoralized forces flee in disorder. Russian and Syrian war planes are strafing rebel-held territory and supply lines, but the rebels continue to advance. While nobody knows how this ends, there are important lessons here for policymakers around the world.

One lesson concerns the uses and limits of military power. The rebel victory in Aleppo is a direct consequence of the wars in Ukraine and the Levant. Ukraine’s gallant resistance to Russian aggression has degraded Russia’s global capabilities and reduced Vladimir Putin’s power to aid his pals in Damascus. More vitally, Israel’s victories in Gaza and Lebanon have weakened its enemies in Damascus and beyond. Mr. Assad can’t count on Hezbollah and Iran to bail him out in Aleppo—the mullahs and their proxies have problems of their own.

But Mr. Assad’s defeats aren’t all good news for Jerusalem. In the Middle East, the enemy of my enemy isn’t necessarily my friend. The strongest of the rebel groups around Aleppo are forces formerly linked to al Qaeda and separate factions supported by Turkey’s Islamist-leaning President Recep Tayyip Erdogan. An Islamist Syria under Turkish protection could be an even more dangerous neighbor for Israel than Mr. Assad’s Syria has been. As has been the case since its 1948-49 War of Independence, Israel can defeat its enemies, but it can’t conquer its way to peace.

 

There are two other lessons that Washington needs to take in. The first is that Israel is an excellent ally, and the U.S. benefits when we support it. Overall, the Biden administration has given Israel the weapons it needed to prevail in Gaza and Lebanon. As a result, a weakened Iran is ready to offer more concessions to both Israel and the U.S. than it was a year ago. The superiority of American weaponry over Russian gear has been convincingly demonstrated. All this was accomplished without the loss of American lives and without American boots on the ground. Even greater support would likely have brought more good results, as a genuinely coordinated Israeli-American diplomatic strategy for the region could have done more to solidify the Middle East security structure both Washington and Jerusalem want.

The second lesson is about how to deal with Russia. Moscow wants to be a global power, and that creates vulnerabilities that the U.S. and our allies can exploit. Russian troops and war planes aren’t in Syria for the weather. Russia’s naval base in Tartus and the Khmeimim Air Base cement Moscow’s alliance with Iran and are critical to Russia’s power projection to Africa and the Red Sea.

On President Biden’s watch, the U.S. remained strategically passive as Russia expanded its global reach. As billions of badly needed dollars flowed into Moscow from mercenary contracts, mines, oil fields. and the smuggling of drugs and arms across much of North Africa and the Middle East, Washington failed to respond.

As the fall of Aleppo reminds us, Russia’s far-flung network of bases and relationships is vulnerable. A strategically alert and forward-thinking American war strategy would activate local allies against Russian interests worldwide, forcing Mr. Putin either to divert resources from Ukraine to defend his global network or to accept the loss of Russian influence and the revenues it brings.

This isn’t a slam dunk. The rebel groups in Syria have some unsavory roots and are pitted against the Syrian Kurds that the U.S. supports. But this is where diplomacy comes in. Building a strong anti-Assad Syrian coalition would pressure Russia, weaken Iran and resolve some prickly issues in U.S.-Turkish relations.

Russia is weak in Syria, and the U.S. and its allies are, if we choose to be, strong. To get better peace terms for Ukraine, and to restore the balance of power worldwide, Washington should tighten the screws on Mr. Putin in Syria.