Russia's Pokrovsk Attacks Have Slowed So Much, Maps Aren't Even Being Updated

Who wants to be the last Russian to die for a negotiating point? JL

Phillips O'Brien reports in his substack:

The Russians have been even less successful than usual over the last week. The Russian advance on Pokrovsk slowed from even the glacial pace of a week ago. Deep State hasn’t even felt the need to update its map in a few days. Whats worth noting is how limited the areas of Russian operations are. They are getting condensed into a smaller area (Pokrovsk to Kurakhove). What we are seeing is Putin trying to take whatever he can of the Donbas before Trump takes office—and after a major push actually seeing less success.

Last weekend in the update I made a point of looking at some of the reporting of the fighting around Pokrovsk, which has been amazingly consistent for five months now. Pokrovsk has always been about to fall because of a combination of Ukrainian incompetence and Russian successful adaptation—and the report just over a week ago could have been written in August or September (and in many ways was). You can find it in this link.

Weekend Update #111--Trump And "Abandoning" Ukraine—Be Careful What You Say

Phillips P. OBrien

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Dec 15

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Well, this week the Russian advance on Pokrovsk slowed from even the glacial pace of a week ago, so the stories of a week before were quietly shelved. Here is the most recent Deep State map of the area of greatest fighting—with a scale so you can see the very small distances involved (about 3 miles to the inch).

And here was the same exact map last Sunday.

Indeed, the areas of greatest Russian advances have been near Kurakhove—which is a strong indication that the next round or reporting will be around the disastrous implications of the loss of this supposedly strategic city or Ukraine.

Russian attacks, if anything, have been less successful over the last week—certainly towards Pokrovsk. Deep State hasn’t even felt the need to update its map in a few days. Whats worth noting is how limited the areas of Russian operations are. They are getting condensed into a smaller area (Pokrovsk to Kurakhove) with the other area of greatest Russian attacks being in Kursk—more on that next.

Its pretty clear what we are seeing (and have been seeing for months). Putin is trying to take whatever he can of the Donbas before Trump takes office—and after a major push in November is actually seeing less success. He is also trying to take back all of Kursk, as this will complicate any Trump attempt to freeze the war along the present lines.

As such, Putin is basically expending men and equipment at unsustainable rates for these small advances. On December 20, for instance, the Ukrainians reported the highest daily Russian losses of soldiers for the entire war—2200.

Russia cannot generate soldiers to cover such losses for that much longer. It will have to either lower the loss rate or its army will shrink. The same goes for much of their equipment. The Russian war economy actually has some major problems, and is struggling keeping up. For vehicles, for instance, the greatest reinforcement has come from old stocks that are refurbished. Signs are that these are beginning to thin. If the stories about the relentless and inevitable Russian military were wrong in 2024, stories of the powerful Russian war economy were likewise overstated. Its good to see some balance in the coverage, as this Economist story attempted to do this week.

The story is as it was. Russia is not that strong and can be beaten. However, Ukraine can’t do that on its own—it can only do it if we help it to. Sadly, that help is not being provided.

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Kursk and North Koreans

One of the reason that Putin has desperately been using North Korean forces in Kursk is that he dealing with losses that he cant sustain relying only on Russian forces. He wouldn’t do this if he did not have to. He is also desperate to take back Kursk before Trump’s inauguration, as its looking more and more like Trump will try to freeze the battlefield in present lines and let Putin keep everything he has conquered.

This week reports came in that the North Koreans were definitely in action and suffering massive losses. There is no way that they could have been prepared, for instance, for the UAV dominated war that they would have encountered. They would simply have been out of their depth, and the reports are that they have been mowed down making straightforward attempts to advance. Here is a picture that Ukrainian intelligence released of North Korean dead.

It is worth noting that the Kursk front line is even more solid than that around Pokrovsk. Deep State has made only very small changes in the last 3 weeks. All we can say is that the North Korean troops better prepare themselves for Russian levels of losses—as Putin will do anything to try and retake Kursk before Trump takes office.