Russian Military Sees 30% Drop In Recruits, Fails To Make Up Ukraine Losses

The scale of recent Russian losses in Ukraine is depressing interest from new recruits, despite increased Kremlin financial incentives. 

The number of new soldiers has dropped 30% from summer to fall and shows no signs of reviving.  This means that replacements are failing to keep pace with losses among Russian forces, which may account for their sluggish performance versus understrength Ukrainians units. This also suggests that Putin is even more desperate for a ceasefire than he is letting on. JL

The Kyiv Post reports:

In the third quarter of 2024, the Russian army attracted around 700 new recruits daily, based on federal budget data. This marks a nearly 30% decline compared to the second quarter, a significant drop in the recruitment of contract soldiers and volunteers for its ongoing war, despite offering increased financial incentives and benefits, including promises to forgive loan debts. Recruitment rates have clearly slowed. NATO estimates indicate that the recruitment of new soldiers is not enough to compensate for battlefield losses.

The Russian military is struggling with a significant drop in the recruitment of contract soldiers and volunteers for its ongoing war, despite offering increased financial incentives and benefits, including promises to forgive loan debts.

Janis Kluge, a researcher at Germany’s Institute for International Security Affairs, estimates that in the third quarter of 2024, the Russian army attracted around 700 new recruits daily, based on federal budget data.

This marks a nearly 30% decline compared to the second quarter, during which an average of 1,020 people signed up each day, totaling about 92,900 recruits over three months.

 

To boost enlistment, Russian President Vladimir Putin increased the signing bonus for recruits from 195,000 to 400,000 rubles ($1,950 to $4,000). The average annual payments also rose significantly, reaching an average of 900,000 rubles ($9,000$) annually – five times higher than previous rates.

 

However, despite the boost of signing bonuses, budget expenditures on these incentives dropped from 18.1 billion rubles ($181 million) in the second quarter to 16.1 billion ($116 million) in the third, a 12% reduction signalling a decrease in volunteers willing to sign a contract.

Kluge notes that exact recruitment figures still need to be determined due to potential delays in reflecting increased payments in budget data.

Regardless of these variables, Kluge asserts that recruitment rates have clearly slowed. NATO estimates indicate that the recruitment of new soldiers is not enough to compensate for battlefield losses, which in November peaked at a staggering 1,500 casualties daily, with 300 resulting in fatalities.

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In September, British intelligence reported average daily losses of 1,271 soldiers killed or seriously wounded, the highest since the start of the war. A previous peak occurred in May 2024 during Russia’s advance on Kharkiv, with 1,262 daily casualties.

Western intelligence estimates place Russia’s total war losses at 610,000, including 200,000 killed and 400,000 wounded. The Pentagon offers similar figures: 615,000 casualties, with 115,000 fatalities.

 

In contrast, Ukraine’s losses range from 60,000 to 100,000 killed and about 400,000 wounded, according to Western sources. However, the accuracy of these figures is difficult to verify, as some soldiers who may be listed as missing in action or presumed dead are not always reflected in official statistics.

Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky claims fewer than 80,000 Ukrainian servicemen have died.