"Totalitarian Hell:" 50% of Citizens In Russian Occupied Ukraine Have Fled

In case anyone thinks trading 'land for peace' is a solution that Ukrainians find viable, let alone politically, economically or socially attractive. JL

The Economist reports:

Russia occupies 18% of Ukraine. Repression combined with Russification aims to transform the social and political fabric of the territories. All traces of Ukraine are being expunged. This is a prison society ”because the fear of being denounced forces everyone to keep their views to themselves." In January 2022 it was estimated there were 6.4m people in the occupied regions,. Now, there are 3.5m. Even Russia’s statistical service admits that people continue to flee. The identity of the occupied territories is changing. Some residents have always been pro-Russian. Now oppression, brainwashing and exodus means that the balance has shifted further.

ON GOOGLE STREET VIEW it is possible to “drive” around parts of towns that have been occupied by Russia in Ukraine since its invasion in February 2022. To do so is to drive back in time. The images were taken before the assault. Since then, many buildings have been destroyed, some streets have new names and the clocks have changed. The area runs on Moscow time, an hour ahead of the rest of Ukraine.

Donald Trump’s incoming administration may push for an armistice or peace deal between Russia and Ukraine. That might leave a fifth of Ukraine under Russian occupation, and the size of this area could easily expand in the coming months if the Kremlin intensifies its offensive, which has been gaining ground. To get a sense of Vladmir Putin’s dark vision for any territory he permanently gains, it is worth looking at conditions in occupied Ukraine now.

 

“Kiril”, a Ukrainian agent in occupied territory reached by phone, says that “this is a prison society” because the fear of being denounced forces everyone to keep their views to themselves. To be without a Russian passport these days is “like being a refugee in your own land”. Important jobs are almost all held by Russians. Anyone with pro-Ukrainian views fears being sent “to the basement”, an expression for Russia’s network of detention and “filtration” camps.

All traces of Ukraine are being expunged. Schools have switched to the Russian curriculum, and Russian youth and paramilitary organisations work in the territories. Repression combined with Russification aims to transform the social and political fabric of the territories, says Nikolay Petrov, the author of a new report for the German Institute for International and Security Affairs.

 

Russia occupies some 18% of Ukraine. Crimea was annexed in 2014, but those parts of Donetsk and Luhansk that were occupied at the same time were not formally incorporated into Russia until September 2022. During the intervening period they existed in lawless limbo, and saw an exodus of pro-Ukrainians and the seizure of their businesses and property. Since the full-scale invasion of 2022 Russia has been absorbing them properly, as it has the new territories won since then including parts of Kherson and Zaporizhia provinces, as well as more of Donetsk and Luhansk.

In January 2022 the Ukrainian authorities estimated that there were 6.4m people in the occupied regions, excluding Crimea. Now, according to Mr Petrov, there are about 3.5m. Even Russia’s statistical service admits that people continue to flee, with up to 100,000 from the “new regions” doing so last year. Mr Petrov says there are also about 1.8m people in Crimea, including some who immigrated there after 2014.

Russia has compelled the remaining residents to take Russian citizenship. From January 1st 2025 anyone aged 14 or above who has not will be deemed a foreign citizen and thus be at risk of deportation. Already it is impossible to live normally without it. It is needed in order to send children to school, and to get medical treatment, pensions or social benefits. The Russian authorities have re-registered property and businesses; citizenship is also required for that. Some people who had fled have even returned in an attempt to hold on to their property.

The exodus of people has led to acute labour shortages in the occupied territories. To fill the gap 40,000-50,000 people from Russia and central Asia now work there, Mr Petrov reckons. Many of them are construction workers, but thousands of teachers, medics and administrators also come on well-paid short-term contracts. In an attempt to hide the true cost of annexation, twinning arrangements have been set up, under which Russia’s regions, major companies, universities and cultural institutions must subsidise occupied Ukrainian regions and comparable institutions from their own budgets. These expenses are secret. Investment is encouraged with hefty tax benefits.

 

There is some violent resistance. On October 27th partisans blew up a railway bridge in occupied Berdiansk, according to some reports. There are occasional examples of assassinations of collaborators by partisans. Ukraine’s National Resistance Centre (NRC) is tasked with helping them. But, says “Ostap”, an NRC spokesman, modern partisan activity is “not like in the films”. Though it is possible for groups to kill a few Russians, he says, collecting intelligence on the location of their units and weapons is “of much more value to us” because that “will help us kill 100 with one missile”.

The identity of the occupied territories is changing, fast. Some residents have always been pro-Russian. Now oppression, brainwashing and an exodus means that the balance has shifted further. Some 5-30% of residents in the occupied Zaporizhia and Kherson regions are pro-Russian, 20-35% are pro-Ukrainian while the rest, possibly more than half, “have a wait-and-see” attitude, according to the NRC. “That is why,” says Mr Petrov, “we should not believe in the idea that they are all suffering under occupation and waiting for liberators to come and free them.”