Severe Losses At Pokrovsk After 8 Months Force Russians To Change Tactics

Russia's abject failure to take Pokrovsk after eight months of well-resourced attempts signals that the the Ukrainians remain a more effective military than the better armed and staffed Russians. 

And that the Russians' inability to win meaningful gains is likely to continue. JL

The Institute for the Study of War reports:

Russian forces have not taken Pokrovsk after eight months of grinding but consistent advances in western Donetsk Oblast. (Minimal) Russian advances have come at very high costs in troops and armored vehicles and months of time. Ukrainian defensive operations, based on the integration of successful Ukrainian drone innovators and operators with ground forces combined with constraints on Russia's strategic and operational-level manpower and materiel reserves have forced the Russian military command to abandon its original campaign design of a frontal assault on Pokrovsk. Ukraine’s ability to stave off the seizure of Pokrovsk thus far and force the Russian military to divert its efforts to advances in arguably the least operationally significant sector of the frontline is a positive indicator of Ukraine’s ability to continue fighting this war.

Russian forces launched offensive operations intended to seize Pokrovsk in Donetsk Oblast during Spring 2024 at the moment of greatest constraints on Ukraine's manpower and materiel following the suspension of US assistance in Fall 2023. Russian forces have not taken Pokrovsk after eight months of grinding but consistent advances in western Donetsk Oblast. Ukrainian defensive operations, based on the integration of successful Ukrainian drone innovators and operators with ground forces combined with constraints on Russia's strategic and operational-level manpower and materiel reserves have forced the Russian military command to abandon its original campaign design of a frontal assault on Pokrovsk. The Russian military command is currently attempting to envelop Pokrovsk from the southwest via Selydove and to even out the frontline west of Kurakhove and north of Vuhledar. Russian forces recently seized Selydove and are currently leveraging the seizure of Vuhledar to advance towards Kurakhove, but Russian advances have come at very high costs in troops and armored vehicles and months of time. Ukrainian drone operations continue to play a critical role in constraining Russian mechanized maneuver and preventing Russian forces from fully exploiting Ukraine's ongoing manpower constraints. Ukraine’s ability to stave off the seizure of Pokrovsk thus far and force the Russian military to divert its efforts to advances in arguably the least operationally significant sector of the frontline is a positive indicator of Ukraine’s ability to continue fighting this war despite the challenges Ukraine faces and the setbacks it has suffered.

 

Russian forces are currently attempting to conduct two simultaneous and supporting offensive operations to seize Pokrovsk through a turning maneuver via Selydove and to level the frontline from Pokrovsk to Yasna Polyana in order to collapse the Ukrainian salient west of Donetsk City and set conditions for future, possibly more operationally significant gains in Donetsk Oblast. Russian forces have consistently been advancing in the Pokrovsk and Kurakhove directions since March 2024, but have yet to make operationally significant advances in either direction. ISW distinguishes between tactical gains, which are relevant at the tactical level of war in the near vicinity of fighting, and operational gains, which are significant at the operational level of war and affect large sectors of the entire frontline. Ukrainian defenders have, thus far, successfully diverted Russian forces from a direct assault on Pokrovsk and convinced the Russian military command to expend manpower, equipment and time on less operationally significant gains in western Donetsk Oblast. Recent Russian advances near Selydove, the recent seizure of Vuhledar, and subsequent Russian advances north of Vuhledar are not yet operationally significant gains and have cost the Russians tremendous manpower and materiel losses. Russian forces will eventually make operationally significant gains if Ukrainian forces do not stop the ongoing Russian offensive operations, although Ukraine’s ability to inflict notable manpower and materiel losses on the Russian military continues to depend on the provision of sufficient and regular Western military assistance. Significant Russian advances in the Pokrovsk and Kurakhove directions would be but one step in Russia’s ongoing offensive campaign to seize the remainder of Donetsk Oblast and would not portend the immediate collapse of the frontline in Donetsk or throughout Ukraine.