A Blog by Jonathan Low

 

Nov 13, 2024

Russian Casualties In Ukraine Have Now Doubled Since Summer

The Kremlin is betting that the cost of dead soldiers and destroyed armor will be less than the advantage of territory gained before Trump's inauguration. 

But given how it's going so far in both Kursk and the Donbas, that does not seem even close to a sure bet. JL

The Telegraph reports:

Russia is suffering nearly 2,000 casualties a day trying to recapture the Kursk region and seize ground along the main front line in eastern UkraineThe figure is almost double Russia’s casualty rate over the summer, highlighting a push by the Kremlin to secure as much territory as possible before Donald Trump, the US president-elect, potentially tries to impose a peace deal when he takes office in January.  Ukrainian forces destroyed 18 of 29 armoured vehicles sent to capture Novoivanovka and killed up to 300 Russian soldiers, "trying to achieve at least some tactical success in the Kursk region.”

Russia is suffering nearly 2,000 casualties a day trying to recapture the Kursk region and seize ground along the main front line in eastern Ukraine, according to Kyiv’s military.

The figure is almost double Russia’s casualty rate over the summer, highlighting a push by the Kremlin to secure as much territory as possible before Donald Trump, the US president-elect, potentially tries to impose a peace deal when he takes office in January.

In Kursk, Ukrainian soldiers insisted they were repelling the 50,000 Russian troops that the Kremlin has tasked with retaking the partially occupied region.

Anastasiia Blyshchyk, a spokesman for Ukraine’s 47th separate mechanised brigade, said the situation was difficult but “under control” and that Russian forces were suffering “dark days”.

A video, purportedly filmed in the region on Monday, showed a column of Russian armoured vehicles, each carrying around 30 soldiers, driving one after another into a minefield and then blowing up.

 

DeepState, a leading Ukrainian military blogger, said that fighting had focused on the village of Novoivanovka, 10 miles west of Sudzha, the centre of the Ukrainian salient.

It reported that Ukrainian forces had destroyed 18 of 29 armoured vehicles sent to capture the village and killed up to 300 Russian soldiers, but still described “difficult days” for the men as they repelled waves of attacks.

“The enemy does not stop trying to achieve at least some tactical success in the Kursk region,” DeepState said.

 

The Ukrainian claim that the Kremlin’s forces were suffering 2,000 daily casualties has been supported by Adml Sir Tony Radakin, who told the BBC on Sunday that total Russian casualties since the start of the war were about to reach “700,000 people killed or wounded”.

He said the figure showed the “enormous pain and suffering that the Russian nation is having to bear because of [Vladimir] Putin’s ambition.”

However, despite Ukraine’s reportedly dogged defence, Russian military bloggers bragged that Moscow’s armies were pushing forward and that Ukraine’s Nato equipment was failing because of the conditions in Kursk.

“Towards Sudzha, the Ukrainian Armed Forces are using captured construction equipment to move through muddy roads because their equipment is getting stuck,” claimed the Two Majors military Telegram channel.

 

It published a video of a Ukrainian soldier desperately trying to dig his bogged-down off-road vehicle out of the mud. 

In the footage, a rocket is then seen flying into the vehicle and exploding. When the smoke clears, the Ukrainian soldier is shown lying motionless on the ground.

Analysts have said that the Kursk offensive has become a critical test for Putin, who allowed Ukrainian forces to build up their defences in the region before launching the counterattack.

 

Frustration with the Kremlin’s slow response to Ukraine’s invasion of the region in August has bubbled over, with displaced residents of Sudzha holding a rare unsanctioned protest in Kursk city over the weekend.

On the main front line in Donbas, reports said Russian forces were continuing to push their advance along the southern sector.

It is claimed that the Russian military there is banking on probing attacks to find weaknesses in Ukrainian defences, which can then be exploited by calling up reinforcements to launch swarm infantry attacks.


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