Russia Prepared For Ukraine ATACMS Strikes - But Not Where They Actually Hit

The Kremlin anticipated as early as July 2024 that Ukraine would be given permission to use US long range missiles against targets inside Russia. But their assessment was apparently that the missiles would be used primarily against tactical airfields closer to Ukraine - which is where they started building fortified airplane hangars. 

Using their intelligence, the Ukrainians instead attacked ammunition and weapons storage facilities. It is possible that in the future, the Ukrainians will attack airfields as well, though probably not the ones now being fortified. JL

Defense Express reports:

The Russians were preparing for the possibility that the US might authorize the use of these missiles on their territory, but they assessed the potential priority and geography of strikes incorrectly. In early October, they began construction of fortified hangars for aircraft at the Khalino airfield near Kursk. there were no hangars for military aircraft at Khalino airfield at all, although, before the start of the full-scale war against Ukraine

The russian federation confirmed ATACMS strike on an ammunition depot in the Bryansk region. This indicates a new round in russia's war against Ukraine with the use of American tactical missiles directly on russian territory.

At the same time, there is some evidence that russians were preparing for the possibility that the United States might authorize the use of these missiles on their territory. However, they assessed the potential priority and geography of strikes in their own way.

OSINT analyst Tatarigami_UA published an article on his X profile stating that in the fall of 2024, russians began construction of fortified hangars for aircraft at the Khalino airfield near Kursk.

Work on the construction of hangars at this airfield began in October of this year. Construction of at least five hangars was recorded.

 

There is one important detail to note: in 2022, there were no hangars for military aircraft at Khalino airfield at all, although, before the start of the full-scale war against Ukraine, this airport near Kursk was a dual-use facility. That is, the tactical aviation of the russian Aerospace Forces was permanently based there.

Launch of ATACMS missile / Photo credit: US DoD

This example clearly illustrates the expectations of the russian military command regarding the possible use of ATACMS on their territory in the event of a corresponding authorization from the United States for the Armed Forces of Ukraine.

russians expected that the authorization would have tight geographical restrictions and that such missiles would be used against tactical airfields.

At the same time, it seems that russians did not perceive the threat of ATACMS strikes as a fully realistic one. This is indicated by the corresponding time backlash: construction of fortified hangars at Khalino airfield near Kursk began in October. At the same time, back in July of this year, russian propagandists wrote about the decision to begin large-scale construction of hangars at tactical airfields. That is, russians lost up to 2-3 months for this process.