A Blog by Jonathan Low

 

Nov 18, 2024

Russia Has Tried Failed Tactic 6 Times In Faltering Kursk Counteroffensive

Russia's vaunted Kursk counteroffensive is foundering as foolish, wasteful tactics lead to repeated deaths and equipment destruction in the face of strong Ukrainian defenses.

The Russians are under orders to retake Kursk by the time of Trump's inauguration in January, but so far there appears to be little progress despite massive commitment of resources - and staggering casualties. JL

Euromaidan Press reports
:

Despite disastrous results, Russian commanders stubbornly refuse to change tactics, leading to many Russian Marines finding a watery grave. Despite the first Russian attack failing and Ukrainians now knowing the Russian plan of attack, Russian commanders ordered another five waves of mechanized assaults in the same way as before. Russian Marines of the 810th Naval Infantry Brigade suffered heavy casualties with river banks and roads littered with dead Russians and destroyed armored vehicles deployed along their main attack vectors, hit before they can achieve any breakthrough. As Russian losses mount and progress stalls, their elite assault units are depleted.

On 16 November, the biggest news came from Kursk. Here, Russians continued the third wave of their counter-offensive, trying to overcome Ukrainian defenses with a new tactical approach.

A screenshot from the Reporting from Ukraine video, 14 November
A screenshot from the Reporting from Ukraine video, 16 November

Despite disastrous results, Russian commanders stubbornly refused to change their tactics, leading to many Russian Marines finding a watery grave.

The main goal of the Russians at this stage of their counter-offensive was to penetrate the Ukrainian defenses in a pincer maneuver and take the northern front of the Ukrainian incursion into a pocket. Recently, Russians decided to double down on their assaults on Novoivanivka, assuming they were on the brink of collapsing Ukrainian lines. This time, Russians tried to use a different tactic, assaulting the settlement head-on from the East to distract Ukrainians while launching a flanking attack from the south. A small river runs south of Novo Ivanovka with only one bridge that Russians must cross to enter the town from the south.

A screenshot from the Reporting from Ukraine video, 16 November

The Ukrainians were prepared, holding an all-around defense in the settlement. The Russian flanking attacks were exposed to more Ukrainian fire from the south as they tried to cross the river.

A screenshot from the Reporting from Ukraine video, 16 November

 

Ukrainians shared geolocated footage of one of these assaults as the Russian column started hitting landmines as soon as they left the town of Lubimova. As they crossed into the southern fields, many Russian vehicles were hit and caught fire. At the same time, the infantry prematurely dismounted in a desperate attempt to reach the safety of the forest. Only one of the six Russian vehicles managed to enter the settlement in the end but was ambushed and disabled by a Ukrainian anti-tank weapon, after that Ukrainians quickly finished off the scattered Russian infantry.

Despite the Russian attack failing and Ukrainians now knowing the Russian plan of attack, Russian commanders ordered another five waves of mechanized assaults in the same way as before.

Expectedly, these attacks ended even worse for Russian forces as Ukrainians now knew the exact Russian plan of attack, and Russians did not change their tactics in the slightest. Ukrainians continued to share geolocated footage of them repulsing the Russian frontal and flanking assaults, showing many burning Russian armored personnel carriers failing to cross the river.

Released footage of the aftermath of the Russian assaults at the river crossing shows that the Russian Marines of the 810th Naval Infantry Brigade suffered heavy casualties in their attempted flanking maneuver. The footage grimly shows the river banks and the reads being littered with dead Russian soldiers and destroyed armored vehicles.

Ukrainian soldiers in the region state that Russian forces’ activity in the Kursk direction remains steady. They add that Russians regularly deploy armored vehicles along their main attack vectors, which are destroyed before they can achieve any significant breakthrough.

A screenshot from the Reporting from Ukraine video, 16 November

The Institute for the Study of War reports that the Russian military frequently transfers new reserves to the Kursk region to replace high personnel and equipment losses.

 

Overall, Ukrainian units have even described their defensive situation as stable despite defending against the third wave of the Russian counter-offensive and coming under near-constant Russian assault.

A screenshot from the Reporting from Ukraine video, 16 November

Ukrainian soldiers in the Kursk region remain well-rested and can leverage their superior training and equipment to achieve tactical victories on the battlefield. This allows Ukrainians to quickly adapt to the constantly changing situation and effectively respond to new Russian tactics.

A screenshot from the Reporting from Ukraine video, 16 November

As Russian losses rapidly mount and their progress stalls, Russians quickly deplete their more elite assault units, further diminishing their prospects of breaking through Ukrainian lines.

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