Future Of Russian Navy Uncertain As Other Challenges Make It Low Priority

Given the degradation of its military land and air assets, including armor, helicopters and elite troops, the embarrassing destruction of Russia's Black Sea Fleet - and the incapacity of the national navy's flagship aircraft carrier while in dry dock - may mean that the Kremlin will decide to do without much naval power in the near future due to its other needs. JL

Harrison Kass reports in The National Interest:

With Russian resources stretched across multiple fronts, rebuilding its navy may not be a priority, leaving it unable to mount significant naval power in the near future. Half of Russia’s Black Sea Fleet has been damaged or destroyed since hostilities began, severely impacting Putin’s naval abilities in a war that has cost Russia egregiously in troops and equipment. Cumulatively, the losses mean that Putin is incapable of fielding a proper navy. And given the more pressing need to regenerate stores of lost armored equipment and aircraft, the navy is unlikely to receive the attention that would be required to regenerate, 

What You Need to Know: Russia’s Black Sea Fleet has suffered severe losses since the 2022 invasion of Ukraine, with about half of its fleet damaged or destroyed. Ukraine’s effective use of asymmetrical tactics—maritime drones and anti-ship missiles—has crippled Russian naval operations, including key vessel losses like the Moskva cruiser.

 

-This attrition has allowed Ukraine to secure shipping lanes, notably for grain exports, while forcing Russia to shift naval resources away from Sevastopol.

-With Russian resources stretched across multiple fronts, rebuilding its navy may not be a priority, leaving it unable to mount significant naval power in the near future.

 

How Ukraine’s Drones and Missiles Crippled Russia’s Navy

The Russian Navy has not fared well since Putin’s invasion of Ukraine began in February 2022. About half of Russia’s Black Sea Fleet has been damaged or destroyed since hostilities began, severely impacting Putin’s naval abilities in a war that has cost Russia egregiously in troops and equipment.  

 

The Russian Navy: Struggling at Sea 

Putin’s naval losses are hardly an outlier. Russia’s figures for troop casualties, armored vehicle losses, and aircraft losses have all turned heads. And while the ground-based war has drawn focus away from the war’s naval element, Putin’s naval losses are head-turning, too. 

“The Ukrainians have destroyed or damaged roughly half of the Russian fleet’s warships, including one submarine, per publicly available information,” Business Insider reported. 

 

Curiously, the Ukrainians have not used their navy to destroy Russia’s navy, but instead, have relied upon maritime drones and long-range anti-ship missiles. Ukrainian tactics, and the success of those tactics, suggest that asymmetrical warfare may be an efficient way to thwart traditional naval power consisting of battleships and submarines. Naval action elsewhere, specifically, off the coast of Yemen, suggests similarly, where Houthi rebels using drones and missiles have disrupted operations for American supercarriers.  

The implications are huge: low-tech weaponry can disrupt and, in some cases, destroy multi-billion dollar vessels loaded with high-tech firepower.  

Accounting for Losses 

At the onset of the Russo-Ukraine War, Putin’s Black Sea fleet consisted of eighty warships. However, the Ukrainians are boasting that, “the Black Sea fleet operations have been greatly complicated, if not paralyzed.”  

 

Ukraine’s efforts have had practical benefits; Ukraine has been able to resume the use of shipping lanes to transport grain for export,  a crucial development given the importance of grain export to Ukraine’s economy, and to food stores globally. Further, Ukraine’s effectiveness at targeting the Black Sea fleet has required Russia to reallocate naval resources away from the homeport of Sevastopol.  

The list of ships that the Ukrainians have sunk is long. The most glaring and significant ship on the list is the Moskva guided missile cruiser. The Moskva had been the flagship of the Black Sea fleet; her sinking, in spring 2022, was one of the first suggestions that the Russians may be in for a longer, and more difficult, process than originally expected. 

Other sunk vessels include the Saratov amphibious landing ship, the Vasily Bekh rescue tugboat, the Ivan Golubets minesweeper, and the Rostov-on-Don submarine. 

There are more. “Several Russian ships that Ukraine claimed to have destroyed have yet to be fully identified, but reportedly among them are Raptor-class patrol boats, a BK-16 high-speed assault boat, Serna-class and Akula-class landing craft, and a Stenka-class patrol vessel,” Business Insider reported. 

Cumulatively, the losses mean that Putin is incapable of fielding a proper navy. And given the more pressing need to regenerate stores of lost armored equipment and aircraft, the navy is unlikely to receive the attention that would be required to regenerate itself.