As Russia Continues To Fail In Battle, It's Harder To Dictate Terms To Ukraine

Putin got his dream American outcome with the election of Donald Trump. But the problem is that his army in Ukraine continues to underperform versus the Ukrainians - and shows no signs of improvement. 

That the Russians are having to rely on North Koreans, Africans and Cubans suggests there are fewer Russians available to fight than the chronically credulous western press report. And the constant articles about Russia 'on the verge' of taking Chasiv Yar, Pokrovsk and now Kursk remain just that - on the verge after weeks and months. The problem this presents for Putin is that he is unlikely to gain what he wants before Trump, to appear credible as the great global head-knocker, insists he cut a deal with Zelensky. JL

Phillips O'Brien reports in his substack:

Russia is not winning on the battlefield, it continues the same very high cost (and growing) attacks for tiny advances. One of the reasons they need North Korean troops (which is not a great overall sign for them) is that their October offensive to take back the Kursk salient Ukraine seized only took back a small part. Ukraine still holds a chunk of Russia not that much smaller than the Ocheretyne bulge. That is a real problem for those who want to dictate terms to Ukraine. What happens in Putin cant retake this part of Russia before talks? In the last week there has been no change on the Deep State Map for Kursk. Its a real complicating factor for Trump and Putin. 

Donald Trump won the US presidency. The key thing to keep in mind is that the US cannot dictate the end of the war—the US is not that powerful. It can step aside, but that in and of itself is not decisive. Russia is not winning on the battlefield, it continues the same very high cost (and growing) attacks for tiny advances. You might have forgotten in all the discussion of Trump and Europe that there is still a war raging in Ukraine, and the Ukrainians are fighting for their freedom with the same conviction as always. Indeed, the Russian advances seem very limited in the last week (actually last weeks) as they are creeping forward in the Donbas, have made no appreciable advance in Kursk, and are resorting to ever more barbaric attacks on Ukrainian civilians to try and terrorize them into submission. Oh, and Russians losses are reaching extreme levels, actually above replacement levels if they continue.

In the Donbas we have been hearing for months about a deteriorating situation for Ukraine, how Pokrovsk (and before that Chasiv Yar) was about to fall, how the Russians would break out an encircle Ukrainian forces—and none of that has happened. What has happened in the last week is actually a very small amount of Russian advances.

Here is the Deep State map of the area of most Russian attacks today.

Here is the map exactly one week ago. There is a scale in the corner so you can check the changes—they are less than 5 kilometres (3 miles) anywhere.

And what has the Russian loss situation been? Well this week the Ukrainian claims of Russian losses (which have been relatively accurate according to western intelligence) passed 700,000 casualties. Here are the Ukrainian figures which were released a few hours ago.

The British for one, have confirmed that they believe that these figures are accurate. Admiral Radakin (the military head of British forces) just said this to the BBC.

Russia has suffered its worst ever month for casualties since the start of the war in Ukraine, the UK chief of defence staff has told the BBC.

Admiral Sir Tony Radakin said Russia’s forces suffered an average of about 1,500 dead and injured "every single day" in October, bringing its losses to 700,000 since the war began in February 2022.

Russia seems actually to be trying everything they can to advance to take as much as possible, based on the possible hope that Trump will press for them to keep it all when he comes in. Its a risk for Russia as actually this is not sustainable for them if Ukraine gets continual aid. But its been what they have been doing all year.

It also means that Russians are throwing everything they can into the Donbas. One of the reasons they need North Korean troops (which is not a great overall sign for them) is that their early October offensive to take back the Kursk salient Ukraine seized only took back a small part. Ukraine still holds a chunk of Russia not that much smaller than the Ocheretyne bulge everyone has been talking about.

And that actually is a real problem for those who want to dictate terms to Ukraine. What happens in Putin cant retake this part of Russia before talks? Its a real complicating factor for Trump and Putin (and btw, reinforces that the Kursk offensive was arguably one of the most important “strategic” successes for Ukraine this year).

In the last week, btw, there has been no change on the Deep State Map for Kursk.

Finally, in a sign that Putin is basically trying anything to hammer Ukraine in preparation for a Trump presidency, the Russians unleashed a pure-horror weapon this week. These are Iranian licensed Shahed UAVs, armed with thermobaric warheads. Here is a video that the Ukrainians released of one that had been brought down and not exploded.

Thermobaric warheads basically create intense heat and fire and are particularly dangerous to human beings. Here is a quick description.

Thermobaric munitions are those weapons that are designed to produce  enhanced temperature and pressure compared to conventional explosives and are often referred  to as fuel-air  explosives  (FAEs).  They produce a much greater  incidence of primary blast injury than  conventional explosives and  this is their main mechanism of injury

And here is a pretty useful graphic.

They are being used deliberately on apartment buildings across Ukraine, to kill and terrorize civilians. Normally you would think the USA would be appalled enough to finally let Ukraine strike military targets in Russia in response, but as of now the Biden administration is holding firm to its disastrous policy.

So we have a template for the next two months until Trump becomes President. Expect Putin to do everything possible to seize any inch of Ukraine he can (at massive cost), expect him to try and recover Kursk (also at high cost—though these might be North Koreans in the vanguard and so far its failed) and expect him to commit any crime he can if he thinks it will work to break Ukrainian spirits.