2025 Ukraine War Forecasts Show Increasingly Slowing Russian Advances

An assessment of likely scenarios for 2025 in the Ukraine-Russian war assume no significant Russian breakthroughs despite the continually ominous - but largely inaccurate - articles from western media. 

The Russian army is too inept to prevail while the Ukrainians, better led and more strategic, will continue to fight devastating defensive battles with occasional opportunistic counteroffensive attacks. Their long range missile and drone strikes on Russian logistics and other war-fighting capabilities will continue to cause attrition and limit Russian options. The most interesting question is whether Trump, who seeks to be seen as the dominant global power broker, will become frustrated with Putin, who sees himself in the same light and is likely to reject Trump's ceasefire terms. JL

New Voice of Ukraine reports:

The most likely scenario assumes that the Russians will advance in the east more slowly than they are now. Ukrainian Defense Forces will enter the new year fighting for Pokrovsk and gradually depleting the Russian "North" troop grouping in Kharkiv Oblast. Within six months, this grouping will lose its combat capability and eventually retreat to Russian territory. At Kupyansk and Lyman, the battle will continue without either side gaining a significant advantage. Trump will gradually become disillusioned with his peace initiatives due to Putin's intransigence and will start leaning towards a "forceful solution"—providing substantial aid to the Ukrainian army.

Ukraine’s Armed Forces will likely remain on the defensive in 2025, with Russia advancing slowly in the east, analysts told NV in a Nov. 19 report forecasting the most probable developments on the frontlines.

The most likely scenario on the frontline assumes that another year will pass without a counteroffensive by the Ukrainian army, and that the Russians, in turn, will advance in the east more slowly than they are now.

 

This expert forecast was published by NV in the article Three war scenarios. What will happen at the front in 2025 and how Trump will affect the position of the Ukrainian Armed Forces.

 

According to analysts surveyed by NV, 2025 will be a period of complete uncertainty for both Ukraine and Russia. The Ukrainian Armed Forces will continue to maintain a strategic defense, while Russian forces will slowly advance in certain areas.

Ukrainian Defense Forces will enter the new year fighting for Pokrovsk and gradually depleting the Russian "North" troop grouping in Kharkiv Oblast. Within six months, this grouping will lose its combat capability and eventually retreat to Russian territory. However, the reverse process may occur in Russia’s Kursk Oblast.

Further south, near Kupyansk and Lyman, the battle will continue without any side gaining a significant advantage, as Russian forces will fail to secure favorable positions for further advancement.

Military expert Viktor Kevliuk believes that the enemy may capture the town of Toretsk but will not be able to create conditions for a further breakthrough northward to Slovyansk and Kramatorsk.

This scenario assumes that the Ukrainian military will have permission to strike deep into Russian territory, but military aid will not significantly increase. Meanwhile, U.S. President-elect Donald Trump, along with EU representatives, will initiate a protracted "settlement" process, where the Kremlin will propose freezing hostilities in exchange for "preferences" such as lifting some sanctions, restricting Ukrainian Armed Forces’ actions, and promising territorial concessions.

Trump will gradually become disillusioned with his peace initiatives due to Putin's intransigence and will start leaning towards a "forceful solution"—providing substantial aid to the Ukrainian army.

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The downside of this outlook, experts warn, is the psychological toll of another year of war without counteroffensives or reclaimed territories, which could demoralize Ukrainian society.