Russia's September Daily Casualties Reached New Ukraine War High

Ukraine's Kursk offensive, combined with Russia's failed assault on Kharkiv oblast and its continued profligate waste of men and equipment in the Donbas sectors have contributed to September's unwelcome record for largest daily Russian casualties. 

Those losses are expected to remain above 1,000 per day for the remainder of 2024. JL

Defense Express reports:

Average daily Russian casualties (killed and wounded) in Ukraine reached a new monthly war high during September 2024. The average daily loss rate was 1,271 per day compared to the previous monthly war high of 1,262 recorded in May 2024. The increase in the casualty rate since May 2024 is due to the extension of the combat zone to include both Kharkiv and Kursk military operations, and increased intensity elsewhere along the frontline, especially in the Donbas. Russia’s casualty rate will continue to average above 1,000 a day for the rest of 2024 despite the onset of winter due to Russia’s reliance on dismounted tactics and a lack of manoeuvre warfare.

The average daily russian casualties (killed and wounded) in Ukraine reached a new monthly war high during September 2024. The average daily loss rate was 1,271 per day compared to the previous monthly war high of 1,262 recorded in May 2024, according to the General Staff of Ukraine reporting. Since the start of the conflict russia has likely suffered over 648,000 casualties, the UK Defense Intelligence reports.

The increase in the casualty rate since May 2024 is almost certainly due to the extension of the combat zone to include both Kharkiv and Kursk military operations, and increased intensity along the frontline. Russian forces highly likely continue to attempt to stretch Ukrainian forces by utilizing mass to overwhelm defensive positions and achieve tactical gains.

Russia’s casualty rate will likely continue to average above 1,000 a day for the rest of 2024 despite the onset of winter. To date winter conditions have not resulted in a reduction of offensive operations or attrition rates due to russia’s reliance on dismounted tactics and a lack of manoeuvre warfare, which requires better conditions.