A Blog by Jonathan Low

 

Oct 13, 2024

Russia Is Incapable Of Exploiting Even Minor Gains Due To Massive Losses

As this picture of Russian soldiers attempting to jump off an armored vehicle before it is hit by a Ukrainian FPV drone illustrates, Russian casualties have become catastrophic. 

And while the Kremlin clearly couldnt care less about the Russian lives lost, the scale of the casualties and destruction has hampered Russia's ability to capitalize on its meager gains. JL

Nadia Boianivska reports in Espreso:

Russia can't achieve its strategic goals despite capturing Vuhledar, due to massive losses. "Russia is not able to fully exploit these captures. Whether it’s Avdiivka, Bakhmut, or now Vuhledar, they are losing tens of thousands of soldiers and equipment for very, very minor gains. They don’t have the capability to overrun. People should not lose sight of the fact that after over 10 years of war, with Russia having every advantage, Ukraine still controls over 80% of its territory, and its army is growing in size and capability,"

Ben Hodges, former U.S. Army Commander in Europe, believes Russia can't achieve its strategic goals despite capturing Vuhledar due to massive losses

He expressed this opinion on Espreso TV.

“Losing Vuhledar and other cities in this area is difficult psychologically. You hate to lose a town where you've fought so hard for so long. But before we decide, 'Oh my God, this is a strategic failure,' we need to keep in mind that Russia is not able to fully exploit these captures. Whether it’s Avdiivka, Bakhmut, or now Vuhledar, they are losing tens of thousands of soldiers and equipment for very, very minor gains. They don’t have the capability to overrun everything and, for example, reach Dnipro.

I think the General Staff is using the right tactics with what they have to prevent Russia from achieving any significant breakthroughs. At the same time, I applaud the decision to launch a counteroffensive in the direction of Kursk. This creates a real problem for the Russians, and I believe there is likely pressure on Putin to deal with this. It also puts Ukraine in a better negotiating position when the time comes,” Hodges explained.

The general is convinced that Ukraine's victory in the war against Russia is in the strategic interests of the United States and Europe.

 

“This will certainly be a challenge for Ukraine moving forward, but people should not lose sight of the fact that after over 10 years of war, with Russia having every advantage, Ukraine still controls over 80% of its territory, and its army is growing in size and capability. So, I remain optimistic, especially if the United States - with a new administration - and Germany decide that a Ukrainian victory is in our strategic interests,”  he emphasized.

  • Ukraine's Defense Forces have officially withdrawn from Vuhledar, Donetsk region, to preserve personnel and military equipment and to take up a position for further operations.
  • On October 3, President of Ukraine Volodymyr Zelenskyy called the withdrawal of the Ukrainian military from Vuhledar the right thing to do, as it helped save the lives of soldiers.
  • After the withdrawal from Vuhledar in the Donetsk region, which was reported on October 2, the 72nd Brigade continues to defend its position in the same direction

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