A Blog by Jonathan Low

 

Oct 16, 2024

10,000 North Korean Soldiers Deployed To Russia But Some Already Deserted

That as many as 10,000 North Korean soldiers are in Russia, with a brigade of 3,000 reportedly already deployed to fight in Ukraine, is a major provocation, escalation - and possibly, a threat. 

Their numbers are definitely a threat, but that risk may be mitigated by reports that a growing number of the North Koreans have already deserted to the Ukrainians in Kursk and Bryansk oblasts - and those are just the ones who've been found so far. This suggests that the quality of North Korean soldiers may be as poor as that of the notoriously defective ammunition Russia has been receiving from North Korea.  

Asami Terajima and colleagues report in the Kyiv Independent:

North Korea has sent 10,000 soldiers to Russia to boost its war against Ukraine. It’s unclear what kind of soldiers they are or what their roles are. (But) an estimated 18 North Korean soldiers have (already) deserted from their positions in Russia's Kursk and Bryansk oblasts around 7 kilometers (4 miles) from the border with Ukraine. The Russian military is searching for the deserters (but) Russian commanders are attempting to conceal the soldiers' desertion from their higher-ups. “It’s a clear indicator how far Russia and its military have fallen over the last 2.5 years that it’s having to beg, borrow and buy support from North Korea,” 

North Korea has sent 10,000 soldiers to Russia to boost its war efforts against Ukraine, a Western diplomat familiar with the matter told the Kyiv Independent on Oct. 15.

Concerns over the deepening military ties between Moscow and Pyongyang have escalated dramatically this week.

Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky said on Oct. 13 that Russia's plans for supporting its full-scale invasion of Ukraine would this autumn include "the actual involvement of North Korea in the war."

The Western diplomat told the Kyiv Independent that it’s unclear what kind of soldiers they are or what their roles were. The Kyiv Independent contacted Ukraine's Foreign Ministry but did not receive a reply at the time of publication. Ukraine’s military intelligence (HUR) declined to comment. An estimated 18 North Korean soldiers have deserted from their positions in Russia's Kursk and Bryansk oblasts near the Ukrainian border, Suspilne reported on Oct. 15, citing unnamed intelligence officials.

Concerns over the deepening military ties between Moscow and Pyongyang have escalated dramatically this week. Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky said on Oct. 13 that Russia's plans for supporting its full-scale invasion of Ukraine would this autumn include "the actual involvement of North Korea in the war."

A Western diplomat told the Kyiv Independent on Oct. 15 that North Korea has sent 10,000 soldiers to Russia to boost its war efforts against Ukraine.

According to Suspilne's sources, the soldiers deserted around 7 kilometers (4 miles) from the border with Ukraine.The motive behind their desertion has not yet been established, but the sources said that the Russian military is searching for the soldiers.

Russian commanders are attempting to conceal the soldiers' desertion from their higher-ups, the sources said.

Earlier this year, the two countries signed a mutual defense pact during Russian President Vladimir Putin's visit to Pyongyang.

As part of the alliance, the North Korean military announced that an engineering unit would join Russian forces on the ground in Donetsk Oblast the following month.

No picture or video evidence has emerged to date that this went ahead.

Putin submitted the treaty, which stipulates that either nation must render military assistance to the other in the event of an attack, to the Russian State Duma for ratification on Oct. 14.

 

As Russia and North Korea deepen military ties, Western diplomats and experts stress that it shows Moscow's increasing need for resources to continue waging its costly war in Ukraine.

“It’s a clear indicator how far Russia and its military have fallen over the last 2.5 years that it’s having to beg, borrow and buy support from North Korea,” John Foreman CBE, the U.K.’s former defense attache in Moscow from 2019 to 2022, told the Kyiv Independent.

Earlier this year, the two countries signed a mutual defense pact during Russian President Vladimir Putin's visit to Pyongyang.

As part of the alliance, the North Korean military announced that an engineer unit would join Russian forces on the ground in Donetsk Oblast the following month.

No picture or video evidence has emerged to date that this went ahead.

 

Putin submitted the treaty, which stipulates that either nation must render military assistance to the other in the event of an attack, to the Russian State Duma for ratification on Oct. 14.

Zelensky warned on Oct. 13 that Russia and North Korea were deepening their alliance, saying that the partnership had escalated to the point where North Korea was sending personnel to Ukraine's front lines along with weapons.

"This is no longer just about transferring weapons. It is actually about transferring people from North Korea to the occupying military forces," he said.

The warning followed reports from South Korean Defense Minister Kim Yong-Hyun that North Korea is likely to deploy regular troops to Ukraine to aid Russia at the front.

Reports have also emerged in recent days that North Korean officers were killed in a Ukrainian missile strike in Russian-occupied territory.

The Kyiv Independent has not been able to verify these reports, which have not been confirmed beyond a single intelligence source.

Ukrainian and U.S. officials claim that North Korea has been supplying Russia with ballistic missiles and vast quantities of artillery shells since fall of 2023.

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