Ukrainian Logistics Strikes Degrade Russia's Missile Attack Ability Vs Ukraine Targets

As fires continue to burn and ammunition continues to detonate at what was thought to be Russia's state of the art ammunition storage facility at Toropets, analysts believe that such Ukrainian strikes may already be limiting Russia's ability to conduct long range missile attacks on Ukraine. JL 

The Institute for the Study of War reports:

Ukrainian strikes against rear area Russian logistics facilities within Russia are undermining Russia's ability to conduct long-range missile strikes and will generate wider operational pressures on the Russian military beyond the individual destruction of ammunition stockpiles and logistics facilities. Repeated strikes against ammunition depots within Russia that cause similar levels of damage as the strike in Toropets may force a decision on the Russian military command to reorganize and disperse support and logistics systems within Russia to mitigate the impact of such strikes. Continued Ukrainian strikes against Russian ammunition and missile storage facilities could destroy an important portion of Russia's materiel reserves. Ukrainian strikes against facilities within Russia could impact offensive operations throughout the theater in Ukraine

Continued Ukrainian strikes against rear Russian logistics facilities within Russia will generate wider operational pressures on the Russian military beyond the individual destruction of ammunition stockpiles and logistics facilities. 

 

Suspilne's sources noted that Ukrainian strikes are undermining Russia's ability to conduct long-range missile strikes against Ukraine.[8] Ukrainian forces conducted a series of HIMARS strikes against Russian ammunition depots throughout occupied Ukraine in Summer 2022, prompting Russian forces to disperse ammunition storage facilities and degrading the efficiency of Russian logistics at the time.[9] Repeated strikes against ammunition depots within Russia that cause similar levels of damage to the strike in Toropets may force a similar decision point on the Russian military command to reorganize and disperse support and logistics systems within Russia to mitigate the impact of such strikes.  Russian forces may not have addressed vulnerabilities at many logistics facilities within Russia due to the sanctuary space that restrictions on Ukraine's use of Western-provided weapons have generated, although the Toropets facility is not within range of Western systems fired from Ukraine.

 

The lifting of restrictions on the use of Western systems and the continued development of Ukraine's own long-range strike capabilities may allow Ukrainian forces to more effectively exploit such Russian vulnerabilities. Ukrainian forces struck another Russian ammunition depot near Sergeevka, Voronezh Oblast in July 2024 and continued Ukrainian strikes against Russian ammunition and missile storage facilities could also destroy an important portion of Russia's materiel reserves.[10] Ukrainian strikes against facilities within Russia could impact offensive operations throughout the theater in Ukraine if Ukrainian forces have the materiel, capabilities, and permission to conduct such a strike campaign against logistics and support facilities within Russia at scale.