Ukraine's New Kursk Advances Forces Russian To Divert Troops From Pokrovsk

Ukraine's Kursk strategy - including the launching of attacks on new parts of that front - is forcing Russia to decelerate its advance on Pokrovsk in order to try to respond to the Ukrainians in Kursk.

This confirms the wisdom of the Kursk offensive as Russia is having difficulty finding the resources to fight in both areas simultaneously. JL

Phillips O'Brien reports in his substack:

The Russians are having to undergo a large build-up in the Kursk area to try and drive the Ukrainians back. This is having a material impact on Russian forces in the Pokrovsk area (and the rest of  Donbas). In the last two weeks, Russian advances towards Pokrovsk have been small and decreasing. The Russians seem to be having difficulty generating the force to keep this offensive going and at the same time build-up in Kursk. Moreover, the Ukrainians are probing at other parts of the line at Kursk to draw Russian forces away from Pokrovsk.

Ukrainians believe that they can win, and believe that they must win. It was sobering how many Ukrainians said to me that they must triumph, as the only other option is death. They see the Russians attacking their cities, nurseries, hospitals, cafes, every day. They hear Russian rhetoric about wiping them out—and they believe it. They go through every day believing that they are fighting an enemy whose goal it is to kill them.

Making “peace” in such a situation seems to them almost impossible, so they are fighting.

The Ukrainian Narrative of Kursk

One thing that was constant during the week was the Ukrainian discussion of the Kursk Offensive. Its fascinating just how different it is in Ukraine from the West in general. Zelensky made a detailed description of why the Kursk offensive was a success—as did many others. The three most points are:

1)      It is drawing away Russian forces. The Russians are having to undergo a large build-up in the Kursk area to try and drive the Ukrainians back. The Ukrainian government claimed yesterday that there were now 45,000 Russian troops that have been massed against the Ukrainian invasion.

2)      This is having a material impact on Russian forces in the Pokrovsk area (and the rest of the Donbas). In the last two weeks, actually, Russian advances towards Pokrovsk have been very small and decreasing. The Russians seem to be having difficulty generating the force to keep this offensive going and at the same time build-up in Kursk. Moreover, the Ukrainians seem to be probing at other parts of the line at Kursk—possibly trying to draw in more Russian forces and away from Pokrovsk.

3)      The Kursk offensive was a key part of getting Ukraine’s partners (really Washington) to finally agree to Ukraine using western weapons for longer-range strategic strikes in Russia itself. The invasion of Russia, and the slow way Russia has reacted, has exposed once again how hollow Russian red lines are.

And it is worth noting that stories are coming out in the last day that the Russians are having to send forces from Pokrovsk. Remember, the great criticism of Kursk from western analysts was that it would not stop Russia from taking Pokrovsk, but indeed make it easier for Russia to take the city. All we can do now is see if the Ukrainians are right. They certainly believe they are.

For reference, here is the most up to date map of the Pokrovsk front from Deep State.

And here it was last Sunday.

So that’s a very quick summary of some of my impressions of Ukraine and the state of the war. Will send out more during the course of the week.