The Growing Evidence Ukraine Knows What It Is Doing At Pokrovsk

While many western mainstream media continue to file doom-laden reports about the "inevitable' fall of Pokrovsk, the reality on the ground appears to be different. 

Objective analyses reveal that the Russian assault has slowed as huge losses of men and equipment have proven hard for the Kremlin to replace. And Ukraine has quietly moved additional brigades, including artillery and specialist drone units to the sector, especially to its flanks, where the Russians are exposed. There is speculation the Ukrainians understood the Russian strategy better than did the Russians - and that they have planned accordingly. JL

Decimus reports in Daily Kos:

It may be that the Ukrainians had an inkling of Russia’s intent all along. General Syrskyi has been spending a lot of time around Pokrovsk with his commanders of late and in recent days something different is in the air. Russia has paused its drive towards Pokrovsk to consolidate and re-invigorate its assault  as the humongous loss in both personnel and assets it has suffered in this campaign is slowing the pace of Russia’s advance and is forcing a re-consideration of strategy. 

The situation on the Pokrovsk Front in Ukraine is dire.  Of that there’s no question.  Nevertheless, most of us who have Ukraine at heart have had to endure anxious days as the Russian behemoth seemingly rolls forward unchecked, devouring one Eastern Ukrainian town after another in a seemingly inexorable creep towards what may or may no longer be a critical Ukrainian logistical hub.

We can’t help wondering if Pokrovsk could be saved. Why haven’t the powers that be in Ukraine thrown everything they have at the Russians to stop them? Why mount an incursion into Kursk Oblast in Russia proper when Pokrovsk and its environs are about to be swallowed up whole by Russia?  And why does Zelenskyi, Syrskyi and Budanov seem so unperturbed about it all, at least in public?  We can’t help asking a mental WTF even as some of us, in our mind’s eye cast our coins into the Trevi Fountain, wishing and hoping for divine intervention on behalf of Ukraine, especially at Pokrovsk.  That scent wafting on the late Summer Breeze somewhere along the Eastern bank of the Mighty Mississippi River is none other than yours truly burning sage … again wishing and hoping for a positive outcome for the people of Ukraine.

But on the lower reaches of the Vovcha river as it courses its way around Pokrovsk, it is astute military leadership and the hard fighting of the Ukrainian soldier that will make the difference and hopefully in time carry the day.  General Syrskyi has been spending a lot of time around Pokrovsk with his commanders of late and by the looks of things in recent days something different is in the air.  Some say Russia has paused its drive towards Pokrovsk to consolidate and re-invigorate its assault.  Some say the humongous loss in both personnel and assets suffered by Russia in this campaign is slowing the pace of Russia’s advance and is forcing a re-consideration of strategy.  There are other theories as to why, especially that Pokrovsk was not really the main target. Who knows?

But it may just be that the Ukrainians had an inkling of Russia’s intent all along. The head of the Reservists' Council of the Armed Forces of Ukraine, Ivan Tymochko, shared this view in an interview with Ukraine’s Espreso TV. To wit:

The Russia's strategic plan is not to take Pokrovsk itself. The Russians are planning to take the direction Vuhledar - Kurakhove - Pokrovsk sector. It is still a dozen kilometres to Pokrovsk, even to the administrative territory of Pokrovsk. Given that the enemy advances a maximum of 100, 200, 500 metres per day, we understand that the question of the Russian army's approach to Pokrovsk is very relative. Moreover, the enemy's speed in this direction has slowed down significantly,’ Tymochko said.

‘The Russians have a dilemma about trying to expand their flanks as much as possible, as the strip they have passed is rather conditional — within 10-20 km, depending on the width,’ the serviceman said.

‘This means that it is being shelled by artillery from both sides, and fire control can be maintained if there are appropriate means of destruction. The occupying Russian troops are forced to expand their flanks, as they understand that the Armed Forces are also amassing artillery, MLRS systems and troops in this area. Several brigades from the reserves have been redeployed to the Pokrovsk direction, it's no secret. The situation is serious, it is important to pay attention to it, but not to consider the area as already lost or a guaranteed success of the enemy, because the fighting continues and will be intense,’ he added.

global.espreso.tv/...

Mr. Tymochko goes on to say that at the rate the Russians are now advancing(assuming they wish to engage in very costly urban fighting), it won’t be till mid-September before they get to Pokrovsk city proper.  But he does not think the Russians will be able to capture the city.

 

Perhaps Russia’s recent southward sliding movements(towards Selydove and Ukrainsk) give credence to the aforementioned “Vuhledar - Kurakhove - Pokrovsk” Putin strategery.  Putin was crowing earlier today about how much territory his forces are gobbling up.

www.reuters.com/...

No one really knows what will happen in this gigantic tussle in Donetsk Oblast. Will the Russians be able to pull off their new sliding approach?  Will the Ukrainians allow them to?  Winter too is coming. Will that matter? In the meantime, the chess moves in front of Pokrovsk continue apace.  And if any group of people on earth can match the Moskva Rus in the art of Maskirovka, it is their cousins in Kyivan Rus, the Ukrainians.