A Blog by Jonathan Low

 

Sep 5, 2024

Russian Desertions Multiply As Casualties Rise and Troop Shortages Halt Operations

New research has revealed that the Russian Defense Ministry is recruiting only 50-60% of their published targets and desertions are rising again as the Ukrainian Kursk offensive and the Russian assault on Pokrovsk cause more Russian men to desert, hide from conscription officials or claim legal protection. 

This is contributing to Russia's inability to halt the Kursk attacks and is stymieing their ability to advance more quickly on Pokrovsk. The situation is expected to worsen as winter bears down. JL

Kseniya Kirillova reports in the Center For European Policy Analysis
:

There is a shortage of Russian personnel to conduct both offensive and defensive operations despite inducements from the Kremlin, which has quadrupled payments. Moscow has recruited many fewer contract soldiers than claimed as word of the staggering losses of men at the front has filtered back despite tight government control of the media. Many desert after being wounded, realizing they will be sent back to the front. Russia’s regions only achieved 50-60% of their recruitment targets in 2023, reporters found, and the downward trend is continuing.

There is a shortage of Russian personnel to conduct both offensive and defensive operations despite inducements from the Kremlin, which has quadrupled payments for signing a contract with the Ministry of Defense since the beginning of the year. 

In August, the average one-time payment reached 596,000 rubles (about $6,700), equal to more than six months of average wages. Combined with an additional federal payment of 400,000 rubles, a contract soldier now receives nearly a million rubles ($11,500) on enlistment.

Even with these payments, which are enormous for most Russians, Moscow has recruited many fewer contract soldiers than the Ministry of Defense claims. Word of the staggering losses of men at the front has filtered back despite tight government control of the media. British military intelligence says Russian dead and wounded have now risen above 500,000 and sometimes exceed 1,000 a day.

According to an investigation by the Istories website, many have decided that refusing to fight is the only means to preserve their lives.

Russia’s regions only achieved 50-60% of their recruitment targets in 2023, reporters found, and the downward trend is continuing. Vladimir Oblast, to the east of Moscow, sent fewer contract soldiers to the front in April this year than in February and was forced to further reduce its recruitment targets for Ukraine. 

Some recruitment offices are now focusing on coercing conscripts and mobilizing individuals already on the frontline into signing contracts.

After Ukraine’s incursion into the Kursk region, the number of people willing to fight did not increase, despite the Kremlin’s appeals to Russian patriotism. On the contrary, human rights activists said they were “drowned” by appeals from conscripts seeking to escape the new combat zone. 

Get Lost, an organization established soon after the full-scale invasion is helping those who do not want to fight. According to activists, more than 34,000 people have already received its assistance.

The group provides legal support by advising potential draftees on their rights, helping them resist illegal behavior by military recruitment offices, and, if legal methods fail, helping them hide from military authorities in Russia and abroad. 

They have also extracted people from the front lines and secretly arranged for their escape from the country.

Equally important is the psychological support offered to potential deserters. The project’s founder, Grigory Sverdlin, says that deciding to oppose the system or go into hiding is hard, and people need to properly consider the mental impact before making such a decision. The alternative is a little better — a mindset of submission, and the habit of unconditionally obeying government orders often results in people who do not want to fight ending up on the front lines.

 

Psychologists working with the organization say the “paternalistic culture” in which most Russians were raised makes it very difficult for them to resist the state authorities or public opinion. In a country where lawlessness prevails and protective mechanisms such as the police, press, and courts do not function properly, people feel dependent on the state or other authorities that can offer protection.

Psychologist Ekaterina Krongauz has observed that people often mechanically follow procedures: accepting a summons, appearing at the military recruitment office, and so on. Even then, they may believe until the last moment that they will not be sent to the front. 

Some only seek help from Get Lost once they have already been sent to war — after experiencing their first battle or injury. Grigory Sverdlin openly admits that he advises surrendering to the Ukrainians if desertion from the front is not an option.

Volunteers who initially went to the front for ideological reasons, before realizing how different reality was from the propaganda, have also started to seek help, according to Daria Berg, head of Get Lost’s assistance and evacuation department. 

Professional soldiers who chose their career before the invasion and, for moral reasons, do not want to participate in an aggressive war, are also turning to human rights activists. Many desert after being wounded, realizing they will be sent back to the front.

Amid the deployment of conscripts to the Kursk region, human rights activists reported receiving dozens of appeals from across Russia — from Murmansk Oblast to Krasnodar Krai. Ivan Chuvilyaev, a spokesman for the organization, says that sending conscripts from the spring 2024 draft to the Kursk region is illegal, as young people who have served less than four months cannot be sent to the so-called counter-terrorism operation. 

Conscripts are increasingly fearful of being drafted, which means the risk of a new mobilization cannot be ruled out, according to Sverdlin. For those unwilling to go to the front, activists advise taking action as early as possible, seeking a lawyer, defending their rights, and considering leaving Russia, as this may often be the only way to avoid going to war.

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