In Another Ukrainian Surprise, Its Reserves Push Back Russians At Pokrovsk

The assumption of many in the mainstream western media has been that Ukraine rolled the dice in its Kursk offensive, committing every reserve it had to that initiative.

But the Ukrainians, as usual, are neither that desperate nor that fool-hardy. They had a number of well-equipped reserve brigades ready to take advantage of what they correctly predicted was the exhaustion of troops and equipment attempting to take Pokrovsk. Those reserves - most of them battle-hardened - have now been deployed and are counterattacking the depleted Russians around Pokrovsk. JL

David Axe reports in Forbes:

Ukrainian troops are counterattacking along the eastern front, blunting the momentum of a Russian offensive that kicked off late last year. Despite assigning a dozen battalions from eight or so brigades to their surprise invasion of Russia’s Kursk’s Oblast, the Ukrainians kept four or five brigades—each with up to 2,000 troops and hundreds of vehicles—in reserve. Now those reserves are joining the fight outside Pokrovsk. “What is happening is exactly what was predicted—the Ukrainian armed forces have begun counterattacking.” Now that fresh and well-equipped Ukrainian troops are in Selydove, and attacking, the Russian conquest of Pokrovsk—once seemingly inevitable—is looking less likely.

As the Russian 2nd Combined Arms Army and adjacent units ground toward the Ukrainian stronghold of Pokrovsk in late August, some Russian observers cautioned against overconfidence on the part of the Russians.

 

Yes, the 2nd CAA—dozens of regiments and brigades strong—outnumbers the Ukrainian force around Pokrovsk, the Tavriya operational strategic group, around four to one. Yes, the Ukrainians have been steadily retreating along the Pokrovsk axis since at least mid-February, when the Russians breached the defenses of the fortress city of Avdiivka on the axis’ eastern end.

But despite assigning a dozen battalions from eight or so brigades to their surprise invasion of Russia’s Kursk’s Oblast, the Ukrainians seemed to have kept four or five brigades—each with up to 2,000 troops and hundreds of vehicles—in reserve. Russian propagandist Evgeny Norin described these units as “reasonably intact and well-equipped.”

Now some of those reserves are finally joining the fight along the last line of trenches and fortified towns five or six miles outside Pokrovsk and its vital supply lines. “What is happening is exactly what was predicted—the Ukrainian armed forces have begun counterattacking,” one Russian blogger reported. And that’s helping stabilize the front line—at least for now. The Ukrainian army’s 53rd Mechanized Brigade raised a flag atop a ruined grain elevator in the town of New York in eastern Ukraine’s Donetsk Oblast on Friday or Saturday. The banner signals the return of Ukrainian forces to central New York, a month after Russian troops mostly captured the town.

 

It’s not an isolated incident. Ukrainian troops are counterattacking in several sectors along the eastern front, blunting the momentum of a Russian offensive that kicked off late last year and has seen Russian forces make gains along several eastern axes—most notably, capturing Avdiivka and then marching on Pokrovsk and its vital supply lines.

New York lies 13 miles north of Avdiivka on a separate axis of Russia’s 30-month wider war on Ukraine.

This has surprised some Ukrainian observers who blamed a lack of fortifications, rather than a lack of troops, for the Tavriya operational strategic group’s monthslong retreat east of Pokrovsk. “Not so long ago, there was public discourse suggesting that the deployment of additional brigades to the Pokrovsk direction wouldn’t make much difference,” Ukrainian analysis group Frontelligence Insight noted. “Yet, here we are, seeing that it does make a difference.”

Don’t expect immediate dramatic changes around Pokrovsk. For now, the Ukrainian reinforcements—at a minimum, the national guard’s Kara-Dag Brigade and 12th Azov Brigade and the army’s 93rd Mechanized Brigade—are conducting small-scale counterattacks, the main effect of which has been to slow or slightly roll back Russian gains.

But the Russians can’t afford to lose momentum. Every day they fail to advance is a day the Ukrainians can dig in and reinforce their positions around Pokrovsk ahead of the coming winter. That has implications for the whole wider war in Ukraine. “The upcoming battle for Pokrovsk will be the climax of the enemy’s offensive operation in the southwestern theater of operations in 2024,” the Ukrainian Center for Defense Strategies predicted.

 

The Kara-Dag Brigade’s fierce actions in Selydove, a front-line town southeast of Pokrovsk, might be the most significant of the recent counterattacks. For days now, the brigade’s T-64 tanks have been blowing up and capturing Russian tanks and fighting vehicles trying to infiltrate Selydove along the main east-west road into town.

The high terrain in and around Pokrovsk has the effect of channeling attacking forces into the city’s lower southern approaches. That also channels them into Selydove, whose peak elevation is around 100 feet below the highest ground in Pokrovsk.

It’s fair to say the Russians must get through Selydove in order to have a clear shot at Pokrovsk. “Without securing the Selydove area, the enemy cannot sustain their offensive,” CDS explained.

But now that fresh and well-equipped Ukrainian troops are in Selydove, and attacking, the Russian conquest of Pokrovsk—once seemingly inevitable—is looking a little less likely.