CIA and Mi6: Ukraine's Kursk Success Causes Moscow Elite New Anxieties Re War

Confirmation that the Kursk offensive has rattled the Russian elite in ways that further undermine confidence in the wisdom of continuing the war - and in Putin's leadership of it. JL

Greg Miller reports in the Washington Post:

CIA Director William Burns and Mi6 chief Richard Moore said this weekend that Ukraine’s military incursion into Russia has triggered new anxieties among Moscow elites over the direction of a war approaching the end of its third year. Ukraine’s seizure of territory in Kursk “raised questions on the part of Russian elites — where is this all headed?”, alluding to previously undisclosed intelligence on reactions in the Russian capital. The surprise operation by the Ukraine military is a “significant tactical achievement” that exposed Russian vulnerabilities. 

Ukraine’s military incursion into Russia has triggered new anxieties among Moscow elites over the direction of a war approaching the end of its third year, CIA Director William J. Burns said Saturday during a rare public appearance with his British counterpart.

Ukraine’s seizure of territory in Kursk “did raise questions on the part of Russian elites — where is this all headed?” Burns said at a conference in London, alluding to previously undisclosed intelligence on reactions in the Russian capital. He called the surprise operation by the Ukraine military a “significant tactical achievement” that exposed Russian vulnerabilities but does not yet appear poised to hasten the end of the war.

The comments came during a weekend festival in London that marked the first time in the histories of the CIA and Britain’s Secret Intelligence Service — also known as MI6 — that their directors had spoken together in public, officials said.

 

Burns and MI6 chief Richard Moore also discussed obstacles to securing a cease-fire in Gaza, their agencies’ expanding efforts to gather intelligence on China, and Iran’s calculations as it weighs the risks of further military support to Russia and retaliatory strikes against Israel.

 

Their joint appearance at a festival sponsored by the Financial Times newspaper was aimed at signaling the strength of the U.S.-U.K. partnership at a moment that Burns described as posing “the most complicated” set of security issues he has encountered in a four-decade government career.

Some of their most pointed statements were aimed at Russia. At one point, Moore said that “Russia’s intelligence services have gone a bit feral” in their efforts to carry out sabotage operations in Europe aimed at undermining Western support to Ukraine.

 

Moore was referring, in part, to Russia’s increasing use of criminals and other proxies to carry out attacks in European countries. In one case, a warehouse linked to a Ukrainian business was targeted in an arson attack in London this year.

U.S. officials this week accused Russia of interfering in the ongoing presidential election and announced criminal charges against individuals accused of funneling millions of dollars toward a sprawling disinformation operation aimed at supporting the candidacy of former president Donald Trump, undermining support for Ukraine and destabilizing American democracy.

Burns and Moore emphasized their agencies’ ongoing support to Ukraine as well as the accuracy of their warnings in late 2021 that Russia seemed intent on invading the former Soviet state. Moore said the incursion into Kursk was a “typically audacious and bold move by the Ukrainians … to try and change the game.”

 

Still, the spy chiefs said that it is unclear how long Ukraine can hold on to the territory it has gained, and that the operation has not achieved one of its objectives — forcing Russia to divert forces from its ongoing assault on cities in Ukraine’s eastern region.

Despite signs of unease among Russian elites, Burns said, “I don’t see any evidence today that Putin’s grip on power is weakening.”

Though their panel was dominated by discussion of the two ongoing wars, Burns and Moore both described China as “the principal intelligence and geopolitical challenge of the 21st century,” one that has prompted an enormous shift in intelligence resources.

Burns said that the CIA has tripled funding levels for the agency’s China mission center over the past several years and that it now accounts for more than 20 percent of the agency’s overall budget, a figure that is classified. Moore described Chinese leader Xi Jinping as “the most powerful Chinese ruler since Mao” and Beijing as a global rival “that contests our interests, contests our values.”

 

Before appearing at the afternoon panel, Burns and Moore published an op-ed in the Financial Times in which they said they have both used intelligence channels “to push hard for restraint and de-escalation” in Gaza and the Middle East. They called for a cease-fire to “end the suffering and appalling loss of life of Palestinian civilians and bring home the hostages after 11 months of hellish confinement.”

Burns, who has played a central role in Middle East negotiations for the Biden administration, indicated progress in negotiations for a cease-fire. The terms of such a deal are “90 percent” there, he said, before emphasizing that “the last 10 percent” always proves most difficult. He indicated that Israeli military operations have “severely degraded Hamas’s military capabilities” but that because Hamas is “also a movement and an idea,” its total destruction is a “very elusive goal.”