The Ukrainians are still making major tactical gains and widening their area of operational control in Kursk oblast. Russia has not been able to mount any serious attempt to push out the growing Ukrainian presence on their homeland. (Meanwhile) Ukraine is not sleeping on the situation on the Pokrovsk front. "The Russians lack the forces to advance simultaneously in all directions, which is a positive to deploy additional forces to interrupt the enemy's offensive"From the very beginning of Ukraine’s August 6, 2024 surprise incursion into Russia’s Kursk Oblast, analysts, experts, observers and sundry pundits have debated the merits of Ukraine’s decision.
We still do not know or have a full picture of what the Ukrainian end game in Kursk is but we now know for certain that the Ukrainians are still on the move, making major tactical gains and widening their area of operational control. We know for certain that to date Russia has not been able to mount any serious attempt to push out the growing Ukrainian presence on their own homeland.
When will Russian artillery arrive? Some have been asking. Perhaps the arrival of artillery would mean that Russia is finally ready to seriously thrown down and dunk on the Ukrainians in Kursk Oblast. Today is September 4, 2024, nearly a month on. We wait.
August 15, 2024 brought news that Ukraine is setting up a military administrative office in Russia's western Kursk region. According to Ukrainian CinC, Gen Oleksandr Syrskyi, the office would:
"maintain law and order" and "meet the immediate needs" of the population in the area.
This action by Ukraine, was a tell as to what Ukraine’s plans were for Kursk, at least in the intermediate future if not the distant future. This incursion was not a feint to quickly draw Russian troops away from the Pokrovsk direction in order to reduce pressure on Ukrainian defense there(as some have surmised). We don’t know the end game but we now know one thing for sure … the Ukrainians intend to stay in Kursk for a while. Going into Kursk Oblast is part of a larger strategic plan towards “peace”. President Zelenskyi confirmed it:
More on that here:
And it would appear the Russians are at their wits end trying to figure out what to do to counter the Ukrainians in Kursk Oblast. First their Czar, Vladimir Putin, had a video call with the Kursk regional Governor, Alexei Smirnov, in which he shamelessly tries to deflect responsibility for the defense of the area away from himself onto the regional government and other federal governmental institutions. No, it’s not on him, Putin. He made it seem. And now some Russians want African mercenaries to come defend their homeland. You can’t make this stuff up.
Meanwhile, Ukraine is not sleeping on the situation in Donetsk Oblast, either, especially on the Pokrovsk front. While asserting that Ukraine must reinforce Pokrovsk, Lieutenant General Ihor Romanenko also said:
"The Russians lack the forces to advance simultaneously in all directions, which is a positive signal. We need to deploy additional forces to interrupt the enemy's offensive momentum in the coming weeks. It is also important to engage the means of destruction of the Ukrainian Defense Forces, in particular the Defense Intelligence of Ukraine and the Security Service, to help the troops in the Pokrovsk direction," emphasized Romanenko.(emphasis mine)
And David Axe of Forbes, by no means a starry-eyed observer of the situation at Pokrovsk, also shared what he has learned of the humongous losses the Russians have suffered there in just a 24 hour period. A record Loss for Russia. The Battle for Pokrovsk, contrary to what some may fear, will not be a cake walk … for the Russians.
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