A Blog by Jonathan Low

 

Sep 9, 2024

As Russia Admits It Can't Liberate Kursk, It's Pokrovsk Assault Stalled

As Russia's Pokrovsk assault has stalled in the face of determined Ukrainian opposition, the Kremlin has effectively signaled that it is incapable of taking back Ukrainian occupied territory in Kursk for the same reason: it's resources are so depleted that it no longer has the personnel or equipment anywhere on the front to achieve its objectives. JL

Phillips O'Brien reports in his substack:

Putin cant “liberate” Kursk. The Russians do not want the Ukrainians to occupy Russian territory—but they simply cant do anything about. Nor is it at all clear that they have the resources to take that land back at any time in the near future. Russian advances in the Donbas slowed noticeably in the Pokrovsk direction this week. Indeed the Russians seem hardly any closer to the city than they were a week ago. The Russians are having problems mustering their reserves in the area to keep the campaign going, losing high numbers of forces for very small gains while admitting that they cant take back their own territory.

The Russians do not want the Ukrainians to occupy Russian territory—but they simply cant do anything about. Nor is it at all clear that they have the resources to take that land back at any time in the near future.

Russian advances in the Donbas were marginally faster (in an incredibly small area) at first but actually slowed noticeably in the Pokrovsk direction this week. Indeed the Russians seem hardly any closer to the city than they were a week ago.

Here is the most recent Deep State map about the situation near Pokrovsk.

And here is the map exactly a week ago.

As you can see, the advances towards Pokrovsk stopped almost completely, and now Russian forces are starting their incremental and costly advances towards the south (as I said, soon you will hear about the “strategically” important town of Kurakhove. Moreover, there are reports the Ukrainians are launching some counterattacks in the Donbas. Specifically, that the Ukrainians made some small advances near Niu York. And the Russians are actually, as Mykola says, having problems mustering t.heir reserves in the area to keep the campaign going. So they are losing high numbers of forces for very small gains and basically admitting that they cant take back their own territory. This is arguably a terrible strategic position to be in, but Putin at least knows that his arguments receive a great deal of credence in the reporting.

He cant “liberate” Kursk—this is a Russian failure, he is desperately spinning it as a success, and its not being questioned enough.

0 comments:

Post a Comment