A Blog by Jonathan Low

 

Jul 6, 2024

Ukraine's Air Defenses and Operators Are Becoming More Effective

As drones, missiles and rockets become a bigger part of the modern war being waged in Ukraine, defending against them has become more important. 

Ukraine's air defenses have become more effective and their human operators more skilled, even as the threat never abates. JL

 Alistair MacDonald and Evgeniia Sivorka report in the Wall Street Journal:

The war in Ukraine has shown how a comprehensive air defense can keep even a formidable air force like Russia’s at bay. Behind these sophisticated air-defense systems, which fire missiles to intercept aerial threats, are men and women who often make split-second decisions that can save scores of lives. Crew members work in close confines for grueling shifts that last up to 18 hours.   Air-defense systems have grown in prominence as drones widen the airborne threat, and more countries—and militant groups—build up their arsenals of missiles and rockets. With a varied arsenal of Soviet-era and Western-donated systems, Ukraine has become a testing ground, creating a hierarchy of what works best. The US Patriot system is widely regarded as the most effective.

Like a World War II fighter ace, commander Viktor Petryshyn has stenciled onto the side of his air-defense system the 58 drones, missiles and planes he has shot down.

The war in Ukraine has shown how a comprehensive air defense can keep even a formidable air force like Russia’s at bay. It has also revealed limitations as Ukraine defends against waves of drone attacks and harder-to-hit modern missiles, with a limited supply of ammunition.

Behind these sophisticated air-defense systems, which fire missiles to intercept aerial threats, are men and women who often make split-second decisions that can save scores of lives. 

Their own lives are also increasingly at risk as Russia targets Ukrainian defensive positions. Winning the upper hand in the air has significant ramifications for a war that has become a grinding stalemate on the ground“This war in the skies is one of the most important things now,” said Petryshyn, who is a commander of an S-300 system in the 160th Antiaircraft Missile Odesa Brigade. “If we are unable to protect our airspace, their aviation will flood into Ukraine.” 

Ukraine says it needs to bolster its air defenses to counter the threat of the Russian air force and strikes on its power grid. To help, Western governments are working to find new systems and manufacture more missiles. The U.S. recently agreed to send another Patriot system to Ukraine and is in talks with the Israeli government to redeploy as many as eight more to support Kyiv.

Conflicts in Ukraine and the Middle East have propelled air defense to the forefront of modern warfare. Air-defense systems have grown in prominence as drones widen the airborne threat, and more countries—and militant groups—build up their arsenals of missiles and rockets. With a varied arsenal of Soviet-era and Western-donated systems, Ukraine has become a testing ground, creating a hierarchy of what works best.

The U.S.-made Patriot system is widely regarded as the most effective. It has a range of more than 60 miles and can destroy harder-to-hit hypersonic and ballistic missiles that are often too fast or big for other systems to defend against.

German and Ukrainian soldiers stand in front of Patriot systems at a military training area in Mecklenburg, Germany. PHOTO: POOL/GETTY IMAGES

Toward the bottom of the hierarchy is the decades-old Soviet S-300 system that Petryshyn oversees.

While sophisticated software and mechanics take much of the skill out of modern systems, the human hand plays an important role when operating an S-300.

In service since the late 1970s, the S-300 has a crew of six that sit side by side in a command vehicle that travels with a separate missile silo and radar system.

One crew member spots the target on a radar, another physically lines it up helped by calculations from two others. The commander gives the OK to fire, and the final crew member presses the button.

Crew members work in close confines for grueling shifts that last up to 18 hours. Teams have to get along. Including drivers, security and cooks, a traveling battery can include up to 45 people. Petryshyn, a 43-year-old father of one, has been in this role since 2014 and still feels the adrenaline when his crew hits a target. “You still get emotional, you still shout,” he said.

Dmytro Plys, a senior lieutenant, is deployed with another S-300 system in eastern Ukraine, where his role is to fix, or capture, targets.

Around six months ago, the radar operator of Plys’s unit spotted something on the radar the crew couldn’t work out as it moved at different speeds and heights, sometimes disappearing off the screen. It must be an assault helicopter, they concluded.

The commander decided to hit it, remembered Plys, who then targeted the green dot on his screen. The missile left its silo, 20 seconds passed and then the green dot disappeared from their screens, causing cheers from the crew. They would later find out that they had downed a Ka-52, one of Russia’s most maneuverable and prized helicopters. Since the start of the war, Plys’s battery has shot down eight fighter aircraft and two helicopters.

Plys, 28, has been fighting since 2017 and said he can no longer imagine living as a civilian.

When the war first began, Plys and his S-300 crew would often talk about the people at the end of their missiles. After almost two and half years he no longer does. 

Air-defense crews are also at risk. Several Ukrainian systems, including at least one Patriot battery, have been damaged or destroyed by Russian attacks, Western officials have said. Plys’s S-300 is currently being fixed after it was damaged in a near hit. “There is no person who is not afraid,” he said.

Petryshyn has had a couple of close calls. In January his battery was spotted by a Russian reconnaissance drone. 

Dmytro Plys’s role is to fix, or capture, targets. PHOTO: JOSEPH SYWENKYJ FOR WSJ

In the Black Sea area where he operates, Russia can fire from nearby Crimea or a naval vessel, giving crews as little as 3½ minutes to escape. 

Petryshyn had been outside the vehicle and ran for cover. The S-300 had moved about half a mile when the missile hit the exact spot it had previously been. 

“We have Guardian angels,” he said. 

His unit can change their position three times in one day to avoid detection.

The mobile nature of many air-defense systems and the willingness of Ukraine to move its assets close to the front line has led to what some have dubbed the SAMbush, or surface-to-air missile ambush. 

Such operations have taken some noticeable scalps, including Russia’s A-50 radar detection aircraft, which plays an important role in commanding air and missile strikes. 

Russia has also changed its tactics. 

Petryshyn said that Russian missiles would typically fly along the same routes, often low and over rivers to evade radar. Now these missiles maneuver more to avoid air defenses. Russia uses low-cost drones to test where Ukraine has positioned its air-defense systems and then plots its missiles around them, military analysts say.

Ukraine’s array of systems makes it difficult to coherently marshal defenses as a whole, according to Col. Ro Clemente, a U.S. Army officer specializing in missile defense.

Patriot units have acted autonomously rather than as part of a unified defensive shield, Clemente said at a recent conference, adding that Ukraine tends to “over engage.”

Overall Ukraine’s armed forces say they have shot down thousands of drones and missiles, along with some 359 aircraft and 326 helicopters, inflicting significant damage on Russia’s air force.

But Petryshyn and Plys say that Ukraine is running out of S-300 missiles, which were made by Russia.

Sometimes when they shoot, they miss their target. “You feel bad,” said Plys. “We barely have any missiles and then you waste one.”

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