Russia's Casualties In Ukraine Grow Exorbitantly As Gains Decline

Russia is suffering a growing number of deaths and other casualties but has less to show for their "sacrifice" - or profligate waste - suggesting that the Kremlin is becoming more desperate to demonstrate some sort of achievement before its resources dwindle much further. JL 

The Economist reports:

Russia’s death toll has crossed 100,000, with 106,000-140,000 dead by June 21st.These calculations suggest three to four Russian soldiers are wounded for every one killed in battle. That means between 462,000 and 728,000 Russian soldiers were out of action by mid-June—more than Russia’s invading force in 2022. (French and British officials estimate 500,000 Russians had been severely injured or killed.) These data do not include Ukrainians recruited by Russia from occupied territories. Nor do they include Russian soldiers severely wounded and unable to return to battle. Russia’s losses in Ukraine since 2022 dwarf the number of casualties from all its wars since the second world war combined

Russia does not broadcast the number of its soldiers that have been killed or injured since the start of its full-scale invasion of Ukraine in 2022. But various sources suggest that it has recently passed a new milestone. Our four charts below visualise the toll.

1

Estimated Russian soldier casualties in Ukraine, ’000

Killed

Killed or injured

600

UK MOD

500K

500

400

UK MOD

290k-350k

CIA

315k

300

CSIS

200k-250k

Mediazona;

Meduza

106k-140k

200

US officials

120k

100

Pentagon

leak 43k

BBC Russia 113k

UK MOD 70K

0

2022

23

24

Sources: BBC Russia; CIA; CSIS; D. Kobak; French officials; Pentagon;

Mediazone; Meduza; US officials; UK MOD; UK officials

The first plots estimates from official and unofficial sources over time. The most recent data, published on July 5th by Mediazona and Meduza, two independent Russian media outlets, suggest that Russia’s death toll has crossed 100,000, with 106,000-140,000 dead by June 21st. Much of their analysis is based on inheritance records and obituaries on social media and in other outlets. (Their data since February 6th, however, is based on trends, as their access to official records has been disrupted.) Their number is broadly consistent with other recent sources: officials in France recently put the total at 150,000 by May, and BBC Russia reckons that at least 113,000 Russians had died by June.

2

Russian soldiers killed in Ukraine

Weekly estimates*

Russian incursion

from Belgorod begin

Ukrainian counter-

offensive begins

3,000

Avdiivka falls

2,500

2,000

1,500

95% confidence interval

1,000

500

0

2022

2023

2024

*Since March 2024 precise week of death unknown,

week of announcement of death is shown

Sources: Mediazona; Meduza

Mediazona’s and Meduza’s estimates can also be shown by week (see chart 2). Their data show notable spikes in Russian losses during Ukraine’s counter-offensive in the summer of 2023 and the aftermath of the battles for Avdiivka and Chasiv Yar.

These data do not include Ukrainians recruited by Russia from occupied territories. Nor do they include Russian soldiers who have been severely wounded and are unable to return to battle. Our rough calculations, based on leaked documents from America’s defence department, suggest that probably around three to four Russian soldiers are wounded for every one killed in battle. That would mean that between 462,000 and 728,000 Russian soldiers were out of action by mid-June—more than Russia’s estimated invading force in February 2022. (French and British officials estimate that around 500,000 Russians had been severely injured or killed by May.)

3

Estimated Russian soldiers killed in Ukraine

February 22nd 2022-June 21st 2024

By age group

As % of male population

0

10,000

20,000

30,000

0

0.1

0.2

0.3

0.4

0.5

0.6

15-19

15-19

20-24

20-24

25-29

25-29

95% confidence

interval

30-34

30-34

35-39

35-39

40-44

40-44

45-49

45-49

Sources: Mediazona; Meduza; UN

Our third chart shows the effect of these losses on Russia’s demography. The greatest losses have been among those aged between 35 and 39, 27,000 of whom are estimated to have been killed between February 2022 and June 2024. But as a percentage of Russia’s male population, losses of those aged between 45 and 49 have been most severe. The latest estimates suggest that roughly 2% of all Russian men aged between 20 and 50 may have been either killed or severely wounded in Ukraine since the start of the full-scale war.

4

Estimated Russian soldiers killed

Ukraine

Feb 24th 2022-Jun 21st 2024

Low estimate 106,000

Chechnya

1994-96 / 1999-2009

18,500

Afghanistan

1979-89

15,000

Ukraine

2014-Feb

23rd 2022

6,500

High estimate 140,000

Other 1,400

Sources: CSIS; Mediazona; Meduza

Our final chart puts the numbers in historical context. Russia’s losses in Ukraine since 2022 dwarf the number of casualties from all its wars since the second world war combined (see chart 4). Even so, Western officials and analysts suggest that the heavy losses are unlikely to affect Russia’s supply of manpower in the near to medium term: the New York Times reported in June that American officials reckoned the country was able to recruit between 25,000 and 30,000 soldiers a month.

On the Ukrainian side, President Volodymyr Zelensky has confirmed that around 30,000 soldiers have been killed, though the true number is likely to be much higher. Tens of thousands of Ukrainian civilians are also thought to be dead (the confirmed tally is just over 10,000 but at least 22,000 are estimated to have died in Mariupol alone). The toll on both sides will continue to rise: The Economist’s war tracker shows that July has seen some of the most intense fighting since the start of the full-scale war.  ■