A Blog by Jonathan Low

 

Jul 20, 2024

Russia's Assault On Novomykhailivka Cost It 300 Vehicles, 13,000 Men

To attack a town most people outside of Ukraine (and many inside) have never heard of, Russia lost 320 vehicles including tanks and other armor as well as 13,000 killed and wounded. And that was when Russia was at the height of its powers and Ukraine at its lowest ebb.

Which is part of the reason the Russian military is so desperate now. JL

David Axe reports in Forbes:

While the Russian campaign to capture Avdiivka started in October, the Russian military launched a smaller assault on Novomykhailivka, 20 miles to the south. At Novomykhailivka, Russia wrote off more than 300 vehicles. That implies troop losses of around 13,000 killed and wounded. Ukrainian losses were much lighter. At the cost of 320 vehicles and thousands of troops over six months, the Russian military advanced four miles into Novomykhailivka. Whether the town’s ruins are worth the price Russia paid is a question only Russians can answer.

While Ukraine—and indeed the whole world—was distracted by the Russian campaign to capture the industrial town of Avdiivka in eastern Ukraine starting in October, the Russian military launched a smaller assault on another eastern town: Novomykhailivka, 20 miles to the south.

 

Around the same time the Russians captured what was left of Avdiivka in mid-April, they also captured Novomykhailivka. The former battle was costlier for the Russians, but only in raw terms. Relative to the scale of the fight, the six-month battle for Novomykhailivka was just as bloody.

Estimates vary, but it’s possible Russia lost more than 40,000 troops—a third killed, two-thirds wounded—plus more than 1,000 vehicles capturing Avdiivka.

Meanwhile around Novomykhailivka, Russia wrote off more than 300 vehicles, according to a Ukrainian drone operator with the call-sign “Kriegsforscher.” That implies troop losses of around 13,000 killed and wounded. Ukrainian losses were much lighter in both battles.

When three Russian field armies with dozens of brigades and regiments attacked Avdiivka in early October, “all our attention was there,” Kriegsforcher recalled. “But there was one more big battle.” Seven Russian regiments and brigades, including the ill-fated 155th Naval Infantry Brigade, assaulted the Ukrainian garrison in Novomykhailivka, made up of two active brigades.

The fighting was relentless. In a long thread on social media, Kriegsforscher detailed Russian tank losses, including 1950s-vintage T-54sT-62s from the 1960s and newer T-72s and T-80s. Ukrainian mines, artillery and drones knocked out dozens of tanks, but the Russians kept coming. One T-80 ran over nine mines before it ground to a halt.

As in the battle for Avdiivka, the Russians ran low on purpose-made armored vehicles and deployed more than a few do-it-yourself vehicles as replacements. At least one up-armored “turtle tank”—a T-62 with no turret and a shell of add-on anti-drone armor—was immobilized by a Ukrainian mine.

The heavy losses the Ukrainians inflicted on the Russians stalled but didn’t prevent Novomykhailivka’s fall in mid-April.

As in Avdiivka, the Ukrainians defending Novomykhailivka were desperately short of artillery shells and anti-tank missiles, mostly owing to a long blockade of further U.S. aid to Ukraine organized by Russia-friendly Republican lawmakers. That blockade finally ended as Russian troops were marching into Novomykhailivka.

In the months following their capture of Novomykhailivka, the Russians have continued attacking to the north, west and south—but with less success as more American munitions have arrived along the front line. Ukrainian forces repelled a Russian attack south of the ruined town as recently as July 2, according to the Ukrainian Center for Defense Strategies.

At the cost of 320 vehicles and potentially thousands of troops over six months, the Russian military advanced four miles into and through Novomykhailivka. Whether the town’s ruins are worth the price Russia paid is a question only Russians can answer.

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