Kremlin Fears Threat Posed By "Unstable" Returning Russian Ukraine War Veterans

The Kremlin is growing concerned about the threat to the country's stability posed by returning Ukraine war veterans, many of whom were already convicted criminals. Reports of violent crimes committed by Ukraine war vets have become a news staple and it is widely acknowledged that the experiences to which they were subjected have left them poorly adapted to embrace civilian life.

The Wagner group revolt a year ago has raised fears of what might happen if these veterans unite in broad criminal gangs with political ambitions and that such an eventuality may inflame already tumultuous interethnic resentments. JL 

The Institute For the Study of War reports:

The Kremlin is (increasingly) concerned about the long-term socio-political implications of Russian veterans returning from the war in Ukraine. (At a) meeting of Russian officials (it was disclosed) that Russian war veterans "adapt poorly" to civilian life after returning from Ukraine and that many convict recruits commit violent crimes after returning. There is concern returning veterans form criminal gangs if they become disillusioned after returning. Increased crime committed by veterans could cause discontent, fear, or aggression towards veterans among Russians. Kremlin officials do not yet fully understand the scale of the risk that returning veterans pose to Russia's internal stability. The Kremlin is already struggling to quell interethnic conflict in Russia. The Wagner Group rebellion highlighted how discontent simmering among Russian military personnel can  become a threat to regime stability.

The Kremlin is reportedly concerned about the long-term social and political implications of Russian veterans returning from the war in Ukraine. Russian opposition outlet Meduza reported on July 19 that a source within the Kremlin and two sources who attended a July 2024 meeting stated that First Deputy Chief of Staff of the Russian Presidential Administration Sergey Kiriyenko stated during the meeting with Russian officials that Russian war veterans "adapt poorly" to civilian life after returning from Ukraine and that many convict recruits commit violent crimes after returning home.[14] One source who attended the meeting told Meduza that Kiriyenko made it clear that there will be "quite a lot" of veterans returning from the war in Ukraine and that increased crime committed by veterans could cause discontent, fear, or aggression towards veterans among Russian citizens.

Kiriyenko reportedly emphasized that the return of veterans from Ukraine will be very different than the period following the Soviet-Afghan war or the Second World War because the Soviet Union suffered fewer personnel losses in Afghanistan and because Soviet society was more widely mobilized and affected by the Second World War than the war in Ukraine. A source told Meduza that Kiriyenko characterized modern Russian society as only seeing the war in Ukraine "on TV" and being unprepared to "understand and accept" veterans. Meduza's source stated that Russian officials are expressing concern that returning veterans will form criminal gangs if they become disillusioned after returning from the frontline, but Meduza's source noted that Kiriyenko did not propose any specific solutions to address these issues. Kiriyenko claimed that the Kremlin's new "Time of Heroes" program could provide a "buffer" between civilians and returning servicemen, but Meduza noted that this program only accepts roughly 100 officers per term and cannot support Russia's wider veteran population.

Meduza's sources suggested that Kremlin officials do not yet fully understand the scale of the risk that returning veterans could pose to Russia's internal stability, which supports ISW's ongoing assessment that the Kremlin likely gave little consideration to the long-term social consequences of its full-scale invasion of Ukraine prior to February 2022.[15] The Kremlin already appears to be struggling to quell ongoing interethnic and interreligious conflict in Russia, and the June 2023 Wagner Group armed rebellion highlighted how discontent simmering among Russian military personnel can quickly become an immediate threat to regime stability.[16]