Why Putin Is Running Out of Time To Achieve Ukraine Breakthrough

The Russians proved incapable of breakthrough this winter and spring against Ukrainians short on ammunition and troop reinforcements. 

And now that the Ukrainians are receiving fresh supplies of armor, ammo and men, Russian forces are finding it even harder to make meaningful gains while in some cases such as Vovchansk, are being pushed back even as Russia rushes reinforcements to that sector, suggesting that reports of vast armies in reserve are exaggerated. The upshot is that Putin may have missed his chance. Again. JL 

Bloomberg reports via Kateryna Tshchenko in Ukraine Pravda:

Russian forces only have limited gains on the battlefield in Ukraine in recent months, and  are beginning to lose ground. "With Kyiv now taking delivery of billions of dollars in fresh arms from its allies, the window for a Russian breakthrough is narrowing." They have made little headway since capturing Avdiivka in February after enormous casualties after months of fighting. They have been trying to capture Chasiv Yar for weeks. Their attempt to open a new front in the Kharkiv region has already bogged down without achieving Putin’s goal of creating a buffer zone along the border. "The prospects of Russia achieving victory this year have greatly reduced."

Bloomberg has noted that Russian forces only have limited gains on the battlefield in  Ukraine in recent months, and they are beginning to lose ground.

Source: Bloomberg in an article titled Putin Is Running Out of Time to Achieve Breakthrough in Ukraine

Details: Bloomberg reported that Ukraine had managed to stop the Russian offensive when the flow of weapons from its partners began.

Quote: "With Kyiv now taking delivery of billions of dollars in fresh arms from its US and European allies, the window for a Russian breakthrough is narrowing even as it continues to fire missiles and drones at Ukrainian cities including energy infrastructure.

A Russian attempt to open a new front in Ukraine’s northeast Kharkiv region already appears bogged down without achieving Putin’s goal of creating a buffer zone along the border."

More details: Bloomberg further noted that Russian forces have made little headway since capturing the strategically important city of Avdiivka in Donetsk Oblast in February at a price of enormous casualties over months of fighting. They have been trying to capture the critical town of Chasiv Yar in Donetsk Oblast for several weeks.

The news agency quotes Ruslan Pukhov, Head of the Moscow-based Centre for Analysis of Strategies and Technologies, as saying that Russia's strategy of depleting Ukraine's forces is "very expensive and bloody for the Russian army itself". "It can lead to excessive exhaustion of forces on the Russian side, which in turn, gives Ukrainians a chance to counter attack," he believes.

"The prospects of Russia achieving victory this year have greatly reduced" due to the resumption of arms supplies and aid to Ukraine, as reported by Bloomberg, quoting Ben Barry, a Senior Fellow for Land Warfare at the London-based International Institute for Strategic Studies.

"Russia might have the largest number of soldiers, but a lot of their first rate armoured vehicles have been destroyed," and rebuilding its Armed Forces to the levels of 2022 will take years, he added.