"Excess Mortality" of Young Russian Men Doubled in 2023 vs 2022

The excess mortality of young Russian men - or actual deaths vs statistical expectations based on previous years - doubled in 2023. The mortality rate of those 25 to 29 increased twice as much as expected, while those aged 35 to 39 also increased significantly. 

The obvious cause is death of soldiers in Ukraine, even those Russia has suppressed those figures both in the media and in statistical reporting. JL

Isabel Van Brugen reports in Newsweek :

There has been a sharp increase in excess mortality among young men compared to before the start of war, according to newly published data from the Federal State Statistics Service of Russia. The mortality rate of young men in Russia increased sharply in 2023—nearly doubling when compared to 2022. At least 64,000 Russians have died in the war so far, the data released on June 27 indicates. Men aged 35 to 39 made up the largest group, with nearly 17,000 excess deaths recorded. The mortality rate among 25-to-29-year-old men in Russia increased almost twice as much as expected. The actual number of Russian deaths is likely to be much higher

Deaths among Russian men have surged amid President Vladimir Putin's full-scale invasion of Ukraine, census data has shown

There has been a sharp increase in excess mortality among young men compared to before the start of war, according to newly published data from the Federal State Statistics Service of Russia (Rosstat), independent Russian news outlet Meduza reported on Friday.

 

Putin's full-scale invasion of Ukraine, which was launched in February 2022, has resulted in high military fatalities for both Moscow and Kyiv. At least one million people are also estimated to have fled Russia to avoid fighting in the war.

 

Meduza reported Friday that the mortality rate of young men in Russia increased sharply in 2023—nearly doubling when compared to 2022. At least 64,000 Russians have died in the war so far, the data released on June 27 indicates.

 

Men aged 35 to 39 made up the largest group, with nearly 17,000 excess deaths recorded. The mortality rate among 25-to-29-year-old men in Russia increased almost twice as much as expected, the publication said.

Estimates of casualty numbers in the war vary, with Ukraine's figures usually exceeding those of its Western allies. Moscow rarely shares information on the number of casualties it has sustained in the war. In September 2022, former Russian Defense Minister Sergei Shoigu said 5,937 troops had been killed since the war began.

 

However, in a rare statement on losses in Ukraine war, Putin said at a press conference on June 5 that the ratio of "irretrievable losses" between Russia and Ukraine was one to five in favor of Moscow. He didn't elaborate on the exact figures.

 

In April the BBC and independent Russian outlet Mediazona published a joint investigation confirming the deaths of at least 50,000 Russian soldiers in Ukraine. The publications used official reports, newspaper articles, open-source information, and social-media posts, to verify the deaths.

The investigation found that at least 27,300 Russian soldiers died in the second year of war.

 

The actual number of Russian deaths is likely to be much higher, the BBC-Mediazona report clarified.

Kyiv, like Moscow, rarely provides updated information on its war casualties. A U.S. Defense Intelligence Agency assessment leaked in April 2023—just over a year into the war—said that Ukraine had suffered 124,500 to 131,000 casualties, including 15,500 to 17,500 dead.

Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky said in February that 31,000 Ukrainian soldiers had been killed in the war.