Crimea Is Increasingly Vulnerable After Repeated Ukrainian Strikes

There are reports this morning that the Kerch bridge between the Russian mainland and Crimea is closed following another night of Ukrainian attacks on targets around the occupied peninsula. 

Repeated attacks by missiles and drones have degraded Russian air defenses to the point where the Black Sea Fleet has been forced to flee further east, away from Ukrainian attack and Russian Air Force planes have also redeployed. With the further degradation of its air defenses, the Kremlin military position on Crimea is increasingly symbolic rather than useful and may become more so if Ukraine chooses to hit it with its soon-to-arrive F-16s, Gripens and other western war planes. JL

Iryna Balacuk reports in Ukraine Pravda:

Ukrainian defence forces are successfully attacking Russian weapons on the peninsula, weakening Russian air defence systems which could allow Ukraine to more effectively utilise manned aircraft in the long term. It is also attacking the Russian Black Sea fleet with great success using naval drones, and the Crimean (Kerch) Bridge to disrupt the logistics of the Russians.  "Crimea is vulnerable. The Russians have relatively limited manoeuvre space on the peninsula."

Western experts believe that if Ukraine wins the war with Russia, it will happen in temporarily occupied Crimea. Currently, the Ukrainian defence forces are successfully attacking Russian weapons on the peninsula and the Crimean (Kerch) Bridge to disrupt the logistics of the Russians.   

Source: Business Insider 

Details: Frederik Mertens, an analyst at the Hague Centre for Strategic Studies, believes that by targeting the peninsula, especially Russian ground-based air defence systems, Ukraine is "preparing the ground" for future air attacks after the arrival of F-16 fighters. 

Quote from Mertens: "Crimea is vulnerable. The Russians have relatively limited manoeuvre space on the peninsula. Putin has a lot to lose both politically and militarily. So, if a limited number of fighters can have a real impact, it is here – and above the Black Sea that becomes fully accessible once the GBAD [ground-based air defence] on Crimea is dealt with."

Details: Earlier, Kyrylo Budanov, Ukraine’s Defence Intelligence Chief, reported that Russia had relocated its most modern S-500 air defence system to the peninsula. 

At the same time, Maria Snegovaya, a senior researcher at the Center for Strategic and International Studies' Europe, Russia, and Eurasia Program, said that "Russia cannot afford to lose Crimea" because it will allow Ukraine to use "the threat of the status of Crimea as a bargaining chip in future negotiations".

 

Elina Beketova believes the Ukrainian attacks on the peninsula "are proving successful due to thorough preparation and systemic work, better opportunities for defence forces, satellite and aerial intelligence provided to Ukraine by NATO allies".

At the same time, Business Insider notes that Ukraine, which lost its traditional navy during the annexation of Crimea, is attacking the Russian Black Sea fleet with great success using naval drones. 

These attacks allowed Ukraine to resume grain supplies across the Black Sea, which is crucial to its economy and forced the Russian Black Sea fleet to hide its ships away from Sevastopol in Crimea. 

Business Insider also writes that the destruction of the illegal Crimean Bridge, which connects mainland Russia with the eastern coast of Crimea, would be "both a strategic and symbolic victory for Ukraine and a major blow to Putin".

Quote: "Ukraine has already struck the bridge twice since the start of Russia's full-scale invasion, but it has thusfar failed to destroy it. Earlier this year, officials from Ukraine's Main Directorate of Intelligence told the Guardian that Ukraine would target the bridge for a third time before the year was up. Its destruction is 'inevitable', they said. There are already signs that Russia, too, fears Ukraine may make another attack on the bridge," writes Business Insider.

Last week, the UK Ministry of Defence reported that Russia had installed eight barges on the south side of the bridge to reduce "approach angles for Ukrainian unmanned vehicles". 

In addition, Russia has begun to take measures to reduce its dependence on the Crimean Bridge; in particular, Russians are building a railway from Rostov-on-Don in southern Russia to Crimea.

Background: Earlier, the Institute for the Study of War reported that Ukrainian forces have been making efforts to weaken Russian air defence systems. If successful, this could allow Ukraine to more effectively utilise manned aircraft in the long term.