Key Implications for Ukraine and Russia of US Weapons Use Policy Changes

The immediate military implications of the US change in policy regarding use of its weapons against Russian targets significantly benefit Ukraine by permitting the targeting of troop concentrations, command and control centers, logistics and air defense installations inside Russia, as well as Russian bombers and other air assets that launch missiles from Russian airspace against Ukrainian military and civilian targets. 

But the broader meaning is that it forces Putin and his advisors to contemplate the reality that the US, NATO and other western allies are not only not backing down but are willing to step up their attacks on Russia, which has social and political as well as military implications for Russia's conduct of the war from here on in. JL

Mick Ryan reports in War In the Future:

The new direction on U.S. weapons will allow Ukraine to intercept Russian missiles, and to attack concentrations of Russian troops just over the border, especially high value targets such as command and control, artillery, logistics and air defense units located on Russian territory. Permitted targets include Russian bombers, which launch long-range missiles that attack Ukrainian infrastructure and civilian targets. It causes the Russians to rethink concentrating forces in Russian regions that adjoin Ukraine. Russia also has to rethink the planning and execution of aerial operations. (And) Russia now needs to ponder whether it presages any other shifts in U.S. policy about the war.Apparently the new direction on U.S. weapons will allow Ukraine to employ American weapons to intercept Russian missiles that are targeting Kharkiv, and to attack concentrations of Russian troops just over the border in the vicinity of the city.

 

Permitted targets also apparently include Russian air force bombers, which launch many of the long-range missiles that attack Ukrainian civil infrastructure and civilian targets. First implication is that it will allow for Ukraine to target Russian troops, especially high value targets such as command and control elements, artillery, logistics and air defence units that are located on Russian territory near Kharkiv and concentrating or rehearsing. While the horse may have bolted on this particular requirement, there will be locations where reinforcements and reserve units are held, as well as logistic supply locations that might be useful targets.

 

Second, the agreement appears to allow for targeting of Russian combat aircraft - including bombers - that are targeting Kharkiv. This is important because as Ukraine has shown in the past, with the right planning it can conduct air defence ambushes to down Russian aircraft.

 

Third, unfortunately much of the concentration of Russian forces employed in attacks on Ukrainian ground forces occurs on Ukrainian occupied territory. This is particularly the case in the south, as well as in the east. Even if this policy was expanded to include areas outside Kharkiv it may not be the silver bullet some hope.

 

Fourth, it does cause the Russians to rethink any posturing or concentrating forces where there is a shared Russian-Ukraine border. This includes Russian regions that ajoin the Sumy and Chernihiv Oblasts in Ukraine. Russia also has to rethink the planning and execution of their aerial operations.

 

Fifth, it means that Russia may step up its efforts to prevent the use of these weapons against them. This not only includes attacks against targets in Ukraine where this weapons are launched from or stored. It might also mean that Russia steps up its current campaign of sabotage against Europe to include manufacturers of long-range weapons.

 

Finally, the relaxation of this U.S. direction on the employment of its weapons on Russian soil is a change to in policy. The Russian President and his senior advisors might now need to ponder not just the implications of this change, but whether it presages any other large shifts in U.S. policy about the war.