A Blog by Jonathan Low

 

Apr 19, 2024

Ukraine's Active Defense Disrupts Russian Kupiansk Assault, Stabilizes Front

Ukraine's 'active defense' strategy is gaining advantages as opportunistic Ukrainian strikes on undermanned or underprotected Russian sectors have disrupted Russia's planned Kupiansk assault.

Additional strikes on Russian troop concentrations and logistics has further delayed or derailed other Russian attacks, contributing to the stabilization of the front despite Russian troop and ammunition advantages. JL 

Euromaidan Press reports:

Ukrainian forces continue to demonstrate a significant capability to strike, contributing to the stabilization of the front line. Ukraine took advantage of a Russian operational pause to increase pressure around Kupiansk, raiding ammunition depots and undermining Russian logistics. Ukrainians' disruptions make the amassing of a Russian offensive difficult. In some areas, such as the strong point of Synkivka, Ukrainian forces recovered ground, and Russian forces had to retreat. Sources reported a widespread increase in looting in occupied territories, raids on civilian properties including theft of canned food, which may be an indicator of increasing Russian shortages of food, water, and clothes.

Today, there are a lot of updates from the Kupiansk direction.

Here, Ukrainian forces took advantage of an apparent Russian operational pause in this direction to increase pressure on the vectors around the city of Kupiansk, raided multiple ammunition depots and assets along the entire contact line, and undermined Russian logistics.

As you may remember, in the last months, Russian forces failed to advance on the positions near Kupiansk after multiple unsuccessful attempts.

Screenshot from Reporting from Ukraine video

In order to dynamically adjust to the situation, Russian forces adopted an alternating vectors tactic to maintain the initiative, as they exhausted their offensive capability in some areas and completed their resupply in others.

In some particular points, such as the strong point of Synkivka, the Ukrainian forces even managed to recover ground, and Russian forces had to retreat to the forest’s interior.

Screenshot from Reporting from Ukraine video
Additionally, some units located on this attack vector since last year were redeployed to the Lyman direction in recent weeks, as Russian forces temporarily prioritized this other direction.

Ukrainian forces took advantage of this situation in the last few days to increase their efforts to undermine Russian positions and logistics. Geolocated images show multiple drone and artillery strikes on ammunition depots along the whole line.

Screenshot from Reporting from Ukraine video

The first major strike raid happened northeast of the settlement of Tabaivka, where a kamikaze drone destroyed a field stockpile of TM-62 anti-tank mines. The footage shows a massive explosion just next to the P07 road to Kupiansk.

The next raid was conducted by the 14th Mechanized Brigade forces near Vilshana, where different vehicles and warehouses were attacked by drone-dropped grenades.

Also, in Vilshana, an additional video shows how a Vampire hexacopter destroyed a Russian Ural-43-20 logistics truck in a massive explosion caused by a TM-62 anti-tank mine.

Ural truck targeted by a Ukrainian drone. Screenshot from Reporting from Ukraine video

And as if that were not enough, Ukrainians took a step further and used again a Vampire UAV from the Ukrainian Border Guard to blow up one of the main crossings over the Zerhebets River in an attempt to undermine Russian supply routes.

River crossing destroyed by a Ukrainian Vampire drone. Screenshot from Reporting from Ukraine video

 

Some Ukrainian sources even recently reported a widespread increase in looting cases on the civilian population in the occupied territories, raids on their properties, and the theft of animals and canned food, which may be an indicator of the increasing Russian logistic disruption and severe shortages of basic supplies of food, water, and clothes.

The most recent footage comes from the forest area surrounding Lyman Pershyi. It shows a major drone and artillery attack on Russian positions, with heavy fire and secondary detonations. Lyman Pershyi hosts one of the prime Russian bases in the entire direction and has also been a priority target of Ukrainian attacks for months.

Drone attack on Lyman Pershyi. Screenshot from Reporting from Ukraine video

Ukrainian officials had already warned earlier this year that Russian forces were amassing an estimated 80,000 troops in the Kupiansk direction, and many voices predicted it would be a priority for a potential next Russian offensive. Facing this prospect, Ukrainian forces appear to have made a special effort to disrupt Russian logistics in the region as much as possible in order to delay and make the amassing of a Russian offensive force as difficult as possible.

Exposion in Luhanks. Screenshot from Reporting from Ukraine video

But the most important strike happened only a few days ago in the occupied city of Luhansk, where a supposedly precision strike on a Russian troop location was reported.

At least two major explosions and a gigantic smoke column were recorded by multiple citizens, but not much confirmed information appeared during the very first hours.

Russian sources initially claimed that a civil machine-building plant in Luhansk city was the target of the attack, but several city-based journalists and bloggers confirmed later that the target was indeed a Russian army location.

 

Finally, Ukrainian Air Force Spokesperson Major Ilya Yevlash stated that Ukrainian pilots conducted the operation and struck the Russian “Center Group” command post in the Luhansk Oblast with Storm Shadow cruise missiles. He indicated that the operation was a complete success and added that Ukraine needs additional long-range missiles to conduct similar strikes against Russian military infrastructure in occupied Ukraine.

Screenshot from Reporting from Ukraine video

Some military analysts stated that the Ukrainian increase in rear-end strikes was something to be expected for two main reasons.

Firstly, recent Ukrainian drone strike waves to Russian oil and gas assets drew scarce air defense systems away from the combat zone.

Screenshot from Reporting from Ukraine video

And secondly, Ukrainians have not been using HIMARS and other missiles even though the previous packages included them. So, it was logical that after the drone strikes, Ukrainians would intensify their use of missiles with the goal of undermining the Russian offensive efforts by striking command posts and force concentrations.

Moreover, the complete stabilization of the Kupiansk direction allows Ukrainians to redeploy forces to other hotter points on the front. So, these strikes will ultimately allow Ukrainians to allocate and use resources more effectively.

Screenshot from Reporting from Ukraine video

Overall, Ukrainian forces continue to demonstrate a significant capability to strike Russian logistics and have taken advantage of the apparent temporary pause and prioritization of other directions to accelerate their attacks on Russian depots, warehouses, and all types of logistical assets.They have also managed to hit a major command center in the occupied city of Luhansk.

If Ukrainian forces manage to maintain this level of activity, they will probably end up causing a significant disruption in the overall Russian logistics and hopefully contributing to the stabilization of the front line in the rest of the Russian attack directions.

0 comments:

Post a Comment