With All Their Advantages, Why Can't the Russians Advance?

In this war, with the benefits drones provide the defense, advancing is harder than digging in and waiting for the enemy to attack. 

But even within that strategic and tactical construct, the Russians are just not a very good military: their leadership, training, motivation, weapons, communications and offensive design remain inferior to Ukraine's - and NATO's. JL 

Phillips O'Brien reports in his substack:

The Russians don’t have to worry about the Ukrainians having ammunition to attack them, so they are starting to concentrate their forces in a way that would be too dangerous if Ukraine had stores of ammunition. Yet, even with this advantage, the Russians cant advance—their attacks seem disjointed and they are suffering heavy losses. Losses around Avdiivka has the Russians losing equipment at more than 10-1. Its confirmation that even with a heavy firepower advantage, advancing remains extremely difficult. The Russians are still considerably less efficient than the Ukrainians—and remain an imperfect military. It is hard to imagine the Russians making large, combined arms advances.

Where are the Advances?

The front line of the battlefield remains almost entirely static, as it has been for almost a year. This is worthy of note, as the Russians have tried to make significant advances in the last few months, and Ukrainian artillery fire seems well down as US aid has collapsed. Remember even in the last few months of 2023, US aid was well down on earlier in the year—and now its ceased.

The difference in fire now between Ukraine and Russia seems to be stark. One report is that the Russians are firing 5 shells for every Ukrainian one—and that the Russians don’t have to worry about the Ukrainians having the artillery ammunition to attack them, so they are starting to concentrate their forces in a way that would be far too dangerous if Ukraine had access to reasonable stores of ammunition.

Yet, even with this supposed advantage, the Russians cant advance—indeed their attacks seem disjointed and they are suffering very heavy losses. One calculation about losses around Avdiivka has the Russians losing pieces of equipment at a more than 10-1 clip.

Where the Russians have lost 608 pieces of equipment (see above) for which there is photographic evidence, the Ukrainians have only lost 46 (including 20 tanks, 22 armored/infantry fighting vehicles).

There are a number of things going on here. Its confirmation that even with a heavy firepower advantage, advancing remains extremely difficult. It also points out that the Russians are still considerably less efficient than the Ukrainians—and remain a very imperfect military with major shortcomings.

Now, things could get worse for Ukraine going forward with no ammunition at all from the USA—at some point something will have to give. However, it is still hard to imagine the Russians making large, combined arms advances even at that stage. In other words, if Europe can get its act together, even with a US failure to support, a Russian large-scale advance is far from assured.

Command-Change Update

As of now the Zelensky-Zaluzhny standoff remains unsettled. There are lots and lots of rumours circulating—that the move will happen in the next few days or it wont happen at all. I have no idea. I will just repeat what I’ve said in the podcast and other writings. Zelensky needs to end the uncertainty ASAP. He either needs to make the command change and own it publicly, or he needs to confirm that Zaluzhny remains in charge with full authority. The instability is helping no one—least of all Ukraine.

Changes of command happen in war—but they must be handled openly and with assurance. This is an important moment for Zelensky’s leadership.