Ukrainian Slaughter of Russians At Avdiivka Declines As Ammo Runs Out

Ukrainian forces defending Avdiivka have turned it into a charnel house of dead Russians and broken, abandoned armor. Russian losses there are, quite literally, legendary. 

But shortages of ammunition for Ukrainian artillery driven by Russian-supporting Republicans in the US Congress who refuse to pass further aid  may force the Ukrainians to make a tactical retreat in order to preserve their position along the line. Their leader, Donald Trump has long been beholden to Putin and his demands are driving the Trump party's behavior towards Ukraine. JL

Mark Sumner reports in Daily Kos:

Until recently, Ukraine had enjoyed a massive advantage in Avdiivka when it came to losses, with a battalion commander in the area reporting that Russia had lost 12 men for every one lost by Ukraine. But now that the fighting is taking place at a closer range, with forces moving from street to street, that ratio is rapidly decreasing. Ukraine pushed Russian forces back so frequently at Stepove that the ground there was practically paved with the unrecovered bodies of Russian soldiers. (But) a shortage of artillery caused by Putin-influenced Republicans in the US Congress. is making it difficult for Ukraine to intercept Russian advances.

After months of extremely heavy combat that have resulted in some of the greatest losses of Russian forces since the illegal invasion began, the situation in Avdiivka appears to be rapidly deteriorating. Unless something changes within the next day, there is a strong possibility that Ukraine could lose its first city since the fall of Bakhmut.

Both Ukrainian and Russian sources are reporting that Russia has extended its foothold in the city, driving Ukrainian troops back and making the small area, which was already surrounded by Russian forces on three sides, very difficult to defend.

 

Until recently, Ukraine had enjoyed a massive advantage in Avdiivka when it came to losses, with a battalion commander in the area reporting that Russia had lost 12 men for every one lost by Ukraine. But now that the fighting is taking place at a closer range, with forces moving from street to street, that ratio is rapidly decreasing. 

Many in Ukraine have leveled the blame for Avdiivka’s declining prospects not on Russia’s willingness to throw out endless “meat waves” of expendable troops, but on another villain: the United States Congress.

Avdiivka is a much smaller city than Bakhmut, with a prewar population of just 31,000 compared to the 73,000 who lived in the larger city some 50 kilometers to the north. By any measure, Avdiivka was also one of the most difficult positions for Ukrainian forces. The fight there hasn’t been going for months: It’s been underway for nine years. Avdiivka was captured by Russia-aligned forces during Vladimir Putin’s first invasion of Ukraine in 2014, who held it for four months before Ukrainian forces liberated the city. 

When the second invasion began in February 2022, the city was already on the front line. The war has been in Avdiivka since Day One.

In the last six months, the fighting at Avdiivka has been much more intense. Without the Wagner Group mercenaries to shove prisoner troops forward as they did at Bakhmut, Russia has attacked Avdiivka the old-fashioned way: by squandering men and machines in incredible numbers. And the numbers really are incredible.

Avdiivka area.

While Ukraine pushed Russian forces back so frequently at Stepove that the ground there was practically paved with the unrecovered bodies of Russian soldiers, Russia kept pushing, pushing, and pushing, seemingly unconcerned about the results.

In the past two weeks, Russian forces have maneuvered around to the south of the mine area, pushed between a group of small lakes, and gained a toehold in the northeast corner of the city. Now Russia appears to be expanding its area of control, making it difficult to keep the remaining Ukrainian forces in the city in communication with Ukrainian forces to the northwest.

Ukrainian forces in the area issued increasing complaints about a shortage of artillery making it difficult for Ukraine to intercept Russian advances. The U.S. has increased the production of artillery shells, but those shells are not getting to Ukraine. 

For the frustrated Ukrainians, who have fought so hard at this location for so long, only one word expresses how they feel about giving up their positions over a simple lack of ammunition.

The bill now being debated in the Senate is only the latest attempt to fill this simple need. However, as things stand at the moment, it seems likely that Republicans will succeed at doing what they’ve done so well since taking control of the House: deliver Ukraine into Putin’s hands.

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Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy spoke out publicly on Monday in an interview with an Italian news outlet, saying that a “reset” of leadership in the Ukrainian military is necessary and that several changes could be coming. This follows earlier reports that Zelenskyy is replacing Ukrainian General Valery Zaluzhny.

Zelenskyy also expressed his concern over the possibility of Donald Trump returning to power in the United States.

“I want to believe and hope that if there are changes in the United States, the line will remain the same,” Zelenskyy said. “In the Republican Party, there are radical voices, but also many people who support Ukraine. It is the people of the United States who decide, but if they intend to reduce assistance to Ukraine then there will be a new geopolitical structure. Putin will break through our defense, it will go forward and will not stop so easily.”