Recent Data Reveal Russian Artillery Attrition Much Higher Than Realized

Russian artillery losses due to counter-battery fire and drone strikes is much higher than previously realized. 

While not suffering the same ammunition shortages due to North Korean supplies, Russia has fewer guns with which to shoot them and its capacity to fire is being degraded by worn barrels which cannot be replaced. JL 

Brendan Cole reports in Newsweek:

Russia has removed half of its artillery from its storage bases since the start of the invasion of Ukraine. This suggests a high rate of attrition. Russia losses 666 pieces of Self-Propelled Artillery (SPG) and 340 pieces of Towed Artillery (SA) may be "significantly higher." Moscow has been drawing on large numbers of both from its stocks due to high losses and barrel wear. Before the war, Russia had 4,450 SPGs in storage, but this has dwindled by 1,489 to 2,961. Towed artillery declined from 14,631 before the invasion to 6,786. "The war is draining. The remaining stock is made up of very old guns like the M-30, which was used in World War II."

Russia has removed around half of its artillery from its storage bases since the start of the invasion of Ukraine. This suggests a high rate of attrition of its equipment, according to satellite imagery cited by open-source intelligence (OSINT) analysts.

During the war started by its leader Vladimir Putin, Russia has lost huge numbers of troops as well as equipment. There are differing estimates of both from Kyiv and its allies, especially since the start of Moscow's offensive on Avdiivka, Donetsk oblast. Both Moscow and Kyiv are tight-lipped about their own losses, rarely revealing how much equipment has been destroyed.

 

As of Tuesday, Russia had lost 666 pieces of Self-Propelled Artillery (SPG) and 340 pieces of Towed Artillery (SA), according to Oryx. The website tracks losses using photo or video evidence, albeit with the caveat that the amount of equipment destroyed is "significantly higher." Newsweek contacted the Russian Defense Ministry on Tuesday for comment by email.

However, data from the OSINT analysts High_Marsed and Cover Cabal, posted on X, formerly Twitter, showed that that Moscow's forces have been drawing on large numbers of both forms of equipment from its stocks, due to high losses and barrel wear.

The analysts' tally posted on February 3 found that, before the war, Russia had 4,450 SPGs in storage at its most-important bases, but this has dwindled by 1,489 to 2,961. Their estimate of towed artillery had declined from 14,631 before the invasion to 6,786, a decrease of 7,845.

 

The post on X said the analysts had confidence in the accuracy of the prewar count and the numbers of SPGs, but towed artillery was harder to identify, so the numbers might change in the future. Plus, lower-resolution satellite imagery was used for several bases, which required some degree of guess work."I think we can conclude that there is a high rate of attrition, which could be caused by high losses, but barrel wear is probably also very important," High Marsed told Newsweek.

"Russia fires a lot of shells, so they need a lot of replacement barrels, but many of the systems are not in production anymore. I think it is also worth noting that they have taken the more-capable towed artillery first, like the 2A65 (howitzer) and 2A36 (field gun)," High Marsed added.

"A part of the remaining stock is made up of some very old guns like the M-30, which was already used in World War II, but also the MT-12, which is theoretically an anti-tank gun and not artillery, and the M-46 with a 130mm caliber that is not actively used by Russia."

 

High_Marsed said that Russia is cannibalizing some of their SPG stocks, although it is difficult to estimate accurately the extent of this. "It is reasonable to say that the war is draining the storage bases, but I have no idea how long it will take until they are empty or until we see effects on the front line."