54 In a Day: Ukraine Is Destroying More Russian Fighting Vehicles Faster

Despite shortages of artillery ammunition, troops and everything else an army needs in war, Ukraine is inflicting such a staggering toll on Russian forces that the Ukrainians must be said to be winning the war of attrition. 

Russia's relentless suicidal attacks are a manifestation of the Kremlin's understanding that they have only so much time before they run out of equipment, men - and potential. JL 

David Axe reports in Forbes:

On each of 705 days since Russia widened its war on Ukraine, Russian forces on average have lost—destroyed, abandoned or captured—19 tanks, fighting vehicles, howitzers or other heavy weapons. On Saturday, they lost at least 54. Another 16 were damaged. Saturday was, in other words, one of the worst days of the war for Moscow. Is this loss-rate sustainable for the Kremlin? The obvious answer is: no. As production of new armored vehicles continues to lag, the Russians still mostly ride in older Cold War-vintage vehicles they’ve pulled out of long-term storage. Despite everything, Ukrainian troops aren’t just holding. Launching drones and firing from trenches, they’re winning the war of attrition.

On each of 705 days since Russia widened its war on Ukraine, Russian forces on average have lost—destroyed, abandoned or captured—19 tanks, fighting vehicles, howitzers or other heavy weapons.

On Saturday, they lost at least 54. Another 16 were damaged. Saturday was, in other words, one of the worst days of the war for Moscow.

Open-source analyst Andrew Perpetua, who tallies vehicles losses and publishes a daily list, noted the tragic record on Sunday, after adding up Saturday’s losses. “It’s the most I've ever found in a day,” he wrote.

Ukrainian losses were light: nine vehicles destroyed, abandoned or captured and other 21 damaged.

Worse for the Russians, their losses included 16 tanks and a staggering 29 fighting vehicles and armored personnel carriers, while Ukraine’s losses mostly were trucks and civilian vehicles the military apparently was using for supply runs. The Ukrainians lost two tanks and a single APC.

To be clear: the wrecked vehicles Perpetua counted on Sunday weren’t necessarily lost on Saturday. But since he counts losses every day, the date he tabulates a loss is a useful stand-in for the actual date of the write-off. Just subtract 24 hours.

The obvious question is whether this loss-rate is sustainable for the Kremlin. The obvious answer is: no. As production of new armored vehicles continues to lag, the Russians still mostly ride in older Cold War-vintage vehicles they’ve pulled out of long-term storage.

These reserves are finite. One analyst who goes by @HighMarsed scours satellite imagery in order to track Russia’s stocks of old vehicles. In December, they concluded the Kremlin had reactivated 1,081 of its pre-war inventory of 4,811 old BMP fighting vehicles.

But of the remaining 3,730, at least 765 were “visible broken beyond repair.”

In 2022 and 2023, according to the analysts at Oryx, the Russians lost around 80 BMPs a month. If that rate of loss had continued into 2024, while production of new BMPs also remained steady at between 30 and 40 a month, the Kremlin would’ve run out of fighting vehicles in two years or so. Say, early 2026.

The problem, of course, if that so far this year the Russians are losing more and more vehicles, faster than ever. They lost 13 BMPs—plus addition BTR fighting vehicles—in a single day, according to Perpetua’s Sunday tally.

That implies a monthly loss-rate for BMPs approaching 400. Five times the rate we observed in 2022 and 2023. At the current rate, Russia doesn’t have a two-year reserve of fighting vehicles.

No, it has maybe a six-month reserve. The uptick in losses—to levels that are far beyond sustainable for Russian forces—also is evident among tanks and APCs.

Despite pro-Russia Republicans in the U.S. Congress cutting off aid to Ukraine last fall, despite the best efforts of authoritarian Hungary to block European aid to Ukraine, despite Russia’s bigger population and bigger economy compared to Ukraine’s, despite everything, Ukrainian troops aren’t just holding. Launching drones and firing from trenches, they’re winning the war of attrition.

The even better news for friends of free Ukraine is how much ground the Ukrainians are losing as they wreck Russian assault groups: very little. In the most violent sector of the front—around Avdiivka—on one of their costliest days of the war, the Russians advanced a hundred yards in the south and three-quarters of a miles in the north.

No rational and moral commander would trade 54 armored vehicles and, according to the Ukrainian general staff, more than 800 troops ... for a few hundred yards.