The Reason Russia Can No Longer Win A War On the Battlefield In Ukraine

Russia has no prospect of defeating Ukraine on the battlefield despite its superior size, troop strength and reserves of military equipment. 

The reason is that all of that manpower and those weapons have been depleted by Ukrainian forces, to the point that Russia can no longer muster enough power to attack in more than one area at a time, and even then, not for very long. The war is now a contest of economies, allies - and will - which favors Ukraine. JL 

Kos reports in Daily Kos:

Russia is running out of equipment. It has burned through most of its inventory, its production of armored vehicles is anemic - and is quickly devoured by Ukrainian defenses. Russia’s ground forces have been catastrophically reduced. Its air force hides far behind the front lines, despite the lack of a significant Ukrainian air force - losing a rare, critically important AWACS plane is a serious blow to its control of the air. And Russia’s vaunted navy was chased out of most of the Black Sea … by a nation with no warships. The war in Ukraine is unlikely to be won on the battlefield. It is primarily economic as Russians are freezing in their homes. 

Russia is running out of equipment. It has burned through most of its stock gea, and its production of modern armored vehicles is anemic and quickly devoured by Ukrainian defenses. Russia has been relegated to refurbishing ancient Soviet gear, and while it’s relatively easy pickings for Ukrainian defenses, it serves the purpose of keeping Ukrainian defenders pinned down, consuming increasingly valuable and scarce ammunition.

Altogether, this means that the war in Ukraine is unlikely to be won on the battlefield. Call me pessimistic—because I am. Given the effectiveness of Russia’s fixed defensive lines and the ubiquitousness of surveillance and explosive drones, it’s hard to see how Ukraine can make significant advances into occupied territory without suffering horrific casualties. F16s and more Bradley Fighting Vehicles would certainly help on the edges, but there is no magic weapon to change the battlefield equation. There may not even be one army in the world currently equipped to deal with the drone situation. For instance, American troops in Iraq and Syria (and my son is among them) are suffering drone-related casualties—56, to be exact!  

This war is now primarily economic. Ukraine’s best bet is, with the help of its Western allies, to push Russia to its economic and sociological breaking point. When will Russians tire of seeing their men sent off to die for Putin’s glory? A year ago, they were gloating about Europe freezing without Russian gas, so what will they do when it is they who are freezing in their homes?

And that brings us to the lede of this story: There is virtually no way Russia has the ability to manage a military assault on a NATO nation, no matter how much its mouth-foaming propagandist—or Putin himself—might threaten.

Russia’s ground forces have been very heavily reduced. Its air force hides far behind the front lines, despite the lack of a significant Ukrainian air force; Russia appears scared away by the defender’s mix of old Soviet and modern NATO air defense systems. Russia losing a rare and critically important AWACS plane is a serious blow to the country’s control of the air. Russia’s vaunted navy was chased out of most of the Black Sea … by a nation with no warships. And despite the saber-rattling, Russia won’t be deploying nukes anytime soon, probably not unless NATO forces march on Moscow, and that’s not happening.

Raising the specter of a Russian attack at home might help German politicians rally for higher military budgets—which is unfortunately necessary in this geopolitical climate—but the scenario doesn’t stand up to serious scrutiny. At the same time, the German defense minister is right that Russia is a threat, and Ukraine has gone a long way to neutering it. The best way to avoid the nightmare “World War III” scenario is to not just keep supporting Ukraine but also to give the country what it needs to eliminate Russia’s war-making potential.

That won’t pay dividends just in Europe. It will be a signal to China, too, that any military designs on Taiwan would be similarly doomed to failure.