At Current Loss Rate, Russia's Ukraine Casualties Will Top 500,000 By End of 2024

Russian casualties in Ukraine increased significantly in 2023. At the current loss rate, Russia is expected to suffer 500,000 dead and severely wounded by the end of 2024, in what would then be three years of war. 

By contrast, Russian losses in Afghanistan over nine years, totaled 70,000 and contributed to the end of the Soviet Union. JL

Ukraine Pravda reports:

UK Defence Intelligence has noted an increase in daily casualties in Russian forces in the war against Ukraine and predicted that at this rate, the total number will cross the 500,000 mark by 2025. In 2023, the average daily losses of Russians, both killed and wounded, increased to 300 per day, more than in 2022. If the current rate of losses continues through 2024, Russia's losses in killed and wounded will reach more than half a million. UK intelligence pointed out that during the nine years of their war in Afghanistan, the USSR lost approximately 70,000 people.

UK Defence Intelligence has noted an increase in daily casualties in the Russian Federation's forces in the war against Ukraine and predicted that at this rate, the total number will cross the 500,000 mark by 2025.

Source: UK Ministry of Defence's intelligence review on 30 December

Details: UK intelligence noted that in 2023, the average daily losses of Russian personnel, both killed and wounded, increased to almost 300 per day, which is more than in 2022.

Quote: "The increase in daily averages, as reported by the Ukrainian authorities, almost certainly reflects the degradation of Russia’s forces and its transition to a lower quality, high quantity mass army since the ‘partial mobilisation’ of reservists in September 2022. It will likely take Russia five to ten years to rebuild a cohort of highly trained and experienced military units."

More details: UK Defence Intelligence noted that if the current rate of losses continues through 2024, Russia's losses in terms of those killed and wounded will reach more than half a million by 2025. UK intelligence pointed out that during the nine years of their war in Afghanistan, the USSR lost approximately 70,000 people.